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Happy Thanksgiving and welcome back to the Week 12 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)
One of the main staples for us when creating a NFL DFS cash game lineup is projected volume. No one at the QB position has a higher expected passing volume on the Week 12 slate (or any slate for that matter) than Tom Brady, with a 41.75 expected pass attempts per game (from the AETY Model). We pick on the Colts’ secondary on a weekly basis and will go back to the well with Tom Brady in Week 12 as 30-45% of the field rosters Brady in cash game formats.
Cam Newton ($5,200 DK / $8,000 FD)
What a disaster by DraftKings for Newton’s pricing this week. If you need a pay-down option on DraftKings, look no further than Cam Newton. On FanDuel, I’d prefer Brady, but the rushing upside of Cam Newton paired with Miami’s struggling defense makes Newton cash-viable there as well.
Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts
NFL DFS Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK / $9,700 FD)
McCaffrey is back and a full-go for the Carolina Panthers (over 70% of the offensive snaps and a 30% target share in the past two weeks), yet priced under $10K (which we are used to seeing with CMC) on both NFL DFS outlets. As much as I don’t like stacking in cash games, the public (on DK) is very likely to ride with both Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey in cash and I personally don’t see an issue with that this week. It’s Christian McCaffrey.
James Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD)
Keeping up with the weekly theme of attacking the Falcons’ defense in any way possible will lead us to James Robinson. I prefer the price on DraftKings but still can get behind the idea of rostering Robinson on FanDuel this week as he grades out 5th this week on the AETY Model’s expected touchdown equity for running backs behind, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, and AJ Dillon. Robinson should get a bit of a bump up in the passing game (which was already a nice floor) with Jamal Agnew on the IR.
AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)
Assuming Aaron Jones is out again in Week 12, AJ Dillon offers us a valuable salary relief running back in one of the higher-total shootouts on the slate as Green Bay hosts the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers do not like to play up-paced and certainly do not want to get in a shoot-out with a healthy Rams offense so look for Dillon to provide fantasy football players with another high-floor, 15+ touch outing with a heavy workload in both the rushing and passing attack.
Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD)
Miles Sanders chalk week? What a time to be alive! As much as this may gross you out, Miles Sanders is finally primed up for a breakout game against the New York Giants and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). For those who don’t rewatch games and try to get a better understanding of a team’s offensive scheme, we’re here to assist. The Philadelphia Eagles have completely flipped the script on their offensive game plan that was averaging 34.6 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-8, to a ridiculously heavy run approach featuring 19.5 pass attempts per game since Week 8.
Imagine that… Nick Sirianni figured out that it’s probably not a wise move to get into shootouts with Jalen Hurts as your quarterback. Sanders is simply way too cheap for a guy that will be featured in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses now that Jordan Howard has been ruled out with injury.
Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Darrell Henderson Jr., David Johnson (gross), Leonard Fournette
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
What more do we need to see from Justin Jefferson? This Vikings’ passing attack lives off of Justin Jefferson productivity and the passing attack is how you beat San Francisco (22nd in pass defense DVOA / 3rd in run defense DVOA). The AETY Model grades Jefferson up with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams and the only difference in my opinion between them, is price. Jefferson is way too cheap on FanDuel but also a great play at low ownership on DraftKings.
Deebo Samuel ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD)
If you can afford him, you play him. Simple as that. Deebo Samuel is an absolute piece of fantasy gold that owns a 30% target share and also happens to be the second best running back on the 49ers roster. This afternoon game in San Francisco holds the second highest total on the slate and another matchup that is extremely pro-Deebo, facing off against Mack Alexander and Bashaud Breeland. With Eli Mitchell returning, we should see Deebo get back to his roots of a 30% target share and high red-zone equity.
Chris Godwin ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)
If you’re not using Tom Brady, use his highest-targeted wide receiver, Chris Godwin. Godwin’s matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore is a great one that favors the 4″ taller, Chris Godwin. Getting exposure to this game in some form is going to be important for me and the majority of the NFL DFS community.
Diontae Johnson ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
At the lower end of the top-tier wideouts sits, Diontae Johnson. Johnson has been borderline matchup proof throughout the 2021 NFL season and this game projects to be a bit higher in pace than most on this slate. For whatever it’s worth, Ben Roethlisberger’s passing prop in Week 12 is one of the highest marks we’ve seen all year and he’ll look to hit Diontae Johnson early and often, especially when he’s lined up against Eli Apple.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)
Assuming the Bucs’ get ahead early in this one, like they usually do besides that disaster of a game in Washington, the Colts’ will be forced to play up-paced and rely on a bit more than just Jonathan Taylor (especially if Vita Vea returns). Michael Pittman is a clear-cut WR1 and is priced in the mid-tier. As long as this gamescript goes to plan, the AETY Model loves Pittman’s chances at hitting the 3x value mark which is perfect for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.
Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
With no Jamal Agnew, we would think Laviska Shenault gets a significant tick-up in this Jacksonville offense (or lack-thereof). On the surface, Shenault’s snaps and usage rate continues to climb over the past few weeks and there’s now rumors Shenault will be utilized a bit more in the backfield. As gross as rostering a Jaguars’ pass-catcher is for NFL DFS cash game formats, the matchup against Atlanta and the low price-tag warrants heavy consideration for Laviska Shenault.
Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Corey Davis, Dez Fitzpatrick
NFL DFS Tight-Ends
Honestly, the tight-end pool is rather weak on this Sunday main slate. In cash, here is my order of preference:
Evan Engram ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD)
Rob Gronkowski ($4,400 DK ONLY)
George Kittle ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
New York Jets
Houston Texans
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
