StixPicks 
We always discuss “getting contrarian” in NFL DFS so it’s about time we posted an article to arm you with some Stick’s Sleepers for your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Whether you’re eating or fading this weeks’ chalky plays, here are five players that may help you differentiate in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.
If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Discord channel.
Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday.
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The purpose of this weekly article is to identify players in positive situations that the public may be overlooking in NFL DFS. If you’re going to be playing a lot of chalky players like Drew Brees, Christian McCaffrey, Brian Hill, Michael Thomas and some other players with ~30% ownership in Week 11, it’s never a bad idea to find a player or two that will help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field. Look no further than Stick’s Sleepers.
Week 11 – Stick’s Sleepers
Jameis Winston (DK $6,500 / FD $7,600)
As of now, it’s looking like Jameis Winston is going to come in under 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 11. While everyone is going to play Drew Brees, why not build your GPP lineups around Jameis Winston?
There are many reasons I’m heavily interested in Winston this week (I’ll probably dive into in more detail on Sunday’s Livestream), but I’ll summarize below.
– New Orleans is currently ranked 7th in run defense DVOA. Yes, Ronald Jones looked solid last week against the Cardinals’ poor excuse of a defense, but that is not going to happen against New Orleans. The Bucs have struggled to run the ball in ~88% of their games this year and I anticipate that being the case in Week 11.
– Game script. Tampa Bay’s defense allows the most points per game in the NFL (31.0). Well, assuming the Saints have no issues putting up points early and often, Winston is going to have to throw the ball A LOT to try to keep this game close. That’s exactly the game script I want when rostering a QB in an NFL DFS GPP.
– We know who to pair with Jameis Winston. We all know how important QB/WR-TE correlation is in NFL DFS. Some of my hardest decisions throughout the week are figuring out what pass catchers to pair with my DFS QBs that I want to play. That isn’t an issue for weeks I use Jameis Winston. It’s Godwin and Evans (and maybe O.J. Howard) plain and simple. It’s likely that Marshon Lattimore misses this game, so that not only boosts up Mike Evans, but also Jameis Winston.
Joe Mixon (DK $5,500 / FD $6,600)
Mixon is going to get the nod for the inaugural Stick’s Sleepers article. I anticipate Mixon being around 10% owned on DraftKings and less than 5% on FanDuel, which makes him an obvious “DFS Sleeper”. I’ll keep this one brief.
– Oakland is allowing ~30 DraftKings points per game to oppose running backs over the past month. The weak spot of this Oakland defense is still the secondary, but they’re not a matchup to completely avoid running backs lately.
– Opportunity. With Ryan Finley now starting at QB for the Bengals, we saw Zac Taylor move to a run-focused offense in Week 10. Maybe Taylor was just trying to run the clock and get the bloodbath over with, but my guess is that he doesn’t have a lot of faith in Finley. Mixon was on the field for over 75% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps for the first time all year (some of that is due to Gio Bernard getting hurt) and should be leaned on heavily again in Week 11 to mitigate Finley’s chances at making mistakes.
– Price. More applicable to DraftKings, but Mixon is extremely affordable and helps us pay up for guys like McCaffrey and Michael Thomas. In terms of opportunity and price, Mixon looks like a perfect guy to pay down for in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Julian Edelman (DK $7,600 / FD $7,400)
No one seems to be interested in rostering a Patriot in DFS this week and I’m not quite sure why. Yes, there are plenty of other games to focus on for DFS exposure, but why would you not include the Patriots pass-catchers in your player pool against a true pass-funnel defense in Philadelphia?
Edelman gets an insane amount of targets week in, week out and is projected for 22 DraftKings points on my model. Assuming the Patriots’ game-plan is to attack this Philadelphia defense’s weak spot (their secondary), Edelman should be in store for one of his best fantasy outings on the season.
Chris Conley (DK $4,400 / FD $5,500)
Now it’s time to get a little cute. If you watch the Sunday Livestream at Win Daily, you know I love to tout a 1% owned, flyer type of player. This week, my guy is going to be Chris Conley. I re-watched the portion of Foles’ last game (Week 1 against KC) and really liked what I saw regarding the rapport between Conley and Foles. Take that for whatever it is worth, lol.
With Foles back, I think everyone gets a bump up on this Jaguars offense. D.J. Chark is certainly in play, but I’d rather take the savings Conley offers so we can continue to build around those expensive studs I’ve mentioned earlier in the article.
Dallas Goedert (DK $3,200 / FD $5,000)
If you read the cash game article from earlier in the week, you know I’m confident in Dallas Goedert this week. We always want to love Zach Ertz, but I truly believe Belichick and the Patriots’ will scheme to take Ertz out of the picture on Sunday (especially if Alshon Jeffrey misses the game with an injury).
DeSean Jackson is done for the year, so I know Philadelphia is going to go back to their two tight-end packages quite often against the Patriots. Goedert is an excellent route runner and should be a heavy focus in the Eagles passing game with or without Alshon Jeffrey suiting up. He is an excellent 1% owned DFS punt-play who will be on the field for over 70% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps.
