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Welcome back to the Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after an absolute SMASH yet again in Week 9 for the Win Daily Crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- This is a week from hell. There’s over a dozen of key players questionable or already ruled out with injury and arguably little-to-no value outside of D’Ernest Johnson/Mark Ingram at the running back position.
- Cash Game Chalk-Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Josh Allen (30%), Dak Prescott (25%), Justin Herbert (20%), Carson Wentz (20%), Najee Harris (40%), Dalvin Cook (35%), D’Ernest Johnson (70%), Davante Adams (30%), Keenan Allen (30%), Mike Evans (30%) Jakobi Meyers (35%), Dan Arnold (30%)
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD)
Dak Prescott struggled immensely in his return to the starting lineup last week against the Denver Broncos but that should not scare you whatsoever as he is primed up for a get-right spot against an Atlanta secondary that gets torched on a weekly basis. The Cowboys’ offense should have a great bounce-back here at home against the Falcons and their 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Prescott is likely to be the highest owned quarterback on this slate and is an excellent start to your cash game build.
Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD)
“Hello, recency bias” says the DFS community as our Week 9 Hero, Justin Herbert is projected for the second highest ownership at the quarterback position here in Week 10. In cash, I have absolutely no issue riding the hot hand of Herbert against a severely banged up Minnesota defense. Herbert is borderline matchup proof and his only path to a floor game is if Minnesota can control the pace through Dalvin Cook and the rushing attack like New England successfully did in Week 8.
Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)
Easily the best running back play on the slate this week against arguably the league’s worst run defense in the Los Angeles Chargers. Assuming Dalvin Cook has no issues suiting up for this game, he’ll be a cash lock for 50% or more of the DFS community this week, including myself.
Najee Harris ($7,900 DK / $9,400 FD)
Likely too expensive for cash on FanDuel, but Najee Harris will yet again lead the slate in touches as a two-score favorite, at home, against the Lions’ 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).
James Conner ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD)
With no Chase Edmonds, James Conner is the only game in town for the Arizona backfield. Coming off of a milly-maker winning performance, James Conner’s price went up a ton, but there’s still plenty of value here on both DFS outlets for a running back quietly leading the league in rushing touchdowns (tied with Derrick Henry) and a matchup against a Carolina defense that struggles to stop the run.
D’Ernest Johnson ($4,700 DK / $5,400 FD)
Well, assuming the whole Cleveland backfield besides Johnson misses this game, D’Ernest Johnson becomes an easy free-square in cash game lineups that the whole field is likely to take. I personally hate this matchup for Johnson, but the price is too cheap and helps us build a lineup with multiple players we listed above. Just take the ugly free-square and move on.
*UPDATE: No Alvin Kamara this week, Mark Ingram value is now damn-near a cash lock button like D’Ernest Johnson. I’ll be using both in cash.
Honorable Mention: Mark Ingram, Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliot, Jonathan Taylor
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)
Likely no Godwin. No Antonio Brown. No Rob Gronkowski. Absolutely fire up Mike Evans this week against the 31st ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA. Washington Cornerback, Brandon St.-Juste is in for a long, long day trying to contain Mike Evans.
*UPDATE: Godwin practiced Friday. Keep an eye on his status as that would change our love for Mike Evans just a bit.
Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
Cooper Kupp is $1,600 more on DraftKings this week (on the Thursday-Monday slate), lol. That statement doesn’t help anyone, just thought it was comical. If you can afford Davante Adams, he’s the safest wide receiver play on the slate when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Adams should be in for a fine day against Ugo Amandi and the rest of this untested Seattle secondary.
Diontae Johnson ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD)
This spot was reserved for either Keenan Allen or Diontae Johnson and I chose Johnson due to a slightly better matchup against Detroit’s XFL caliber secondary. I don’t mind Keenan Allen against Mackensie Alexander, but that’s usually a matchup I tend to avoid. The volume can be plenty for Allen to produce, but with the significant price increase, I’m taking my low-owned Keenan Allen smash week from last Sunday and calling it a win. I’m not going to get greedy and go back to the well when Diontae Johnson is cheaper and in a better matchup.
*UPDATE: I’m not going here in cash with no Ben Roethlisberger. Will likely core Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and a value/honorable mention.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
Jacksonville has by far the worst secondary in the NFL and Michael Pittman is becoming a household name in the fantasy community. We don’t need to talk much about the hot-streak of Pittman. If you cannot afford him, the AETY Model absolutely loves the discounted Zach Pascal who is racking up a significant amount of Air Yards and a weapon in the red-zone. T.Y. Hilton is back, no need for Pascal.
Amari Cooper ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD)
Picking on Atlanta’s secondary will be a must for me in some factor of my cash game lineup. I’m likely to get my exposure through locking in Dak Prescott, but if you go another route or want a stack, Amari Cooper is too affordable.
Value Wide Receivers:
Russell Gage ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD)
Jakobi Meyers ($4,800 DK ONLY)
Michael Gallup ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
James Washington ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD)
Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Jerry Jeudy
Tight-Ends
The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.
Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($5,800 DK / $6,900 FD)
Values: Pat Freiermuth ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD) I’m out with no Ben Roethlisberger
Punt: Dan Arnold ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) & Jared Cook ($3,200 DK / $5,200 FD)
NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
