Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the premier edition of The First Look for the 2021 NFL season. This article will take us down the path looking at data for the previous weekend’s games. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Wide Receiver Targets
Amari Cooper has led the way so far in week 1 with 16 targets. Boy did he make the most of those targets as he caught 13 of those passes and finished with 139 yard and 2 TD’s. Cooper’s teammate CeeDee Lamb wasn’t too far behind with 15 targets.
While Lamb still had a monster game with 7 receptions, 104 yards, and 1 TD we were left wondering what could have been as he only converted on 47% of his targets. This tandem is going to be fun to watch this season and Dak Prescott has the potential for an absolute smash year being able to throw to these target monsters.
Another tandem that had a ton of targets was Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasely. The two of them combined for 27 of Josh Allen’s 51 passing attempts. While both guys had solid target games and even reception games, you have to chalk up both games as disappointments though as neither guy eclipsed 70 yards and 0 TD’s. Bills get a softer match up next week in the Dolphins so we have to hope that the end results will be better next weekend.
The guy I want to focus most on here is Deebo Samuel. He had an absolute monster game yesterday converting 9 of his 12 targets into receptions and 1 touchdown. What I want to focus on most for him is his yards after catch. Thanks to his 79 yard touchdown pass Samuel had a slate leading 109 yards after catch.
Of all the target monsters we had this week at the WR position we have to think that DJ Chark left us with the biggest feeling of what could have been. While he had a very productive 3 catches that turned into 86 yards and 1 TD, he was only able to convert on 25% of his targets. If he would have been able to convert a few more of those passes he would have gone from a good game to a great game.
Running Back Targets
We saw an absolute monster game from Swift yesterday. Swift did the majority of his damage catching passes yesterday as he caught 8 of 11 targets for 65 yards and 1 TD. He clicked instantly with new Lions QB Jared Goff and this will be a QB/RB combo we’ll want to watch as the season progresses.
New Colts QB Carson Wentz only threw the ball 38 times but nearly half of those attempts went to running backs Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor. Both guys combined for 15 targets and 12 receptions. Taylor was the more productive of the two as he finished with 60 receiving yards compared to Hines 48.
The biggest disappointment came in James Robinson yesterday as he was 23% owned in the Milly Maker and had a subpar game. The targets were there for him as he had 6 total but was only able to convert on 3 of the targets for just 29 yards. We hope as the season continues that the Robinson will be able to improve on his conversion rate and start to produce more than he did in week 1.
Tight End Targets
TJ Hockenson separated himself from his peers as he led the way in targets for Tight Ends. He ended up with 10 targets and 8 receptions, resulting in 97 yards and 1 TD. He outscored his peers and came at a fraction of the ownership as he was just 3% owned in the Milly Maker. Goff threw the ball 57 times yesterday and it’s clear so far that his favorite targets are Hock and Swift.
Another TE that came at a fraction of the ownership was Noah Fant. He was 2.5% owned in the Milly Maker and was tied for the 2nd most targets among all Tight Ends with 8. While he didn’t find the end zone he was able to convert 6 of his targets for receptions and 62 yards. The Giants have historically been a favorite for Tight Ends so we’ll want to see if Fant’s production continues or this was just merely a match up based victory for Fant owners.
Quarterback Target Share
When it comes to data I like to take a look at things from a different lens. My day job has me do it so I when it comes to fantasy, I see no reason not to. With the above three charts we’re looking at how QB’s used their targets. The top being the top 5 RB Target Shares, middle is tight end, and the last being receivers.
What we can see is that Wentz, Goff, Ryan, Darnold, and Heinicke all heavily utilized their backs in the passing game with at least a third of their passes going to them. If we drop down to receivers we can clearly see Allen, Big Ben, Herbert, Murray, and Stafford have a clear lean to throwing to their receivers. Since it’s so early in the season it’s something we’ll want to keep an eye on. Was this based on match up or is this going to be how their offense runs all year?
Running Back Touches
As a Baltimore resident one of these names surprises me and also wishes that he was still a Raven. After having an extremely quiet 2020 Mark Ingram was second in carries this week with 26. He’s still a bruising back but one that isn’t going to break away from the pack as evidenced by his low 3 yards per carry.
The guy that really blew everyone away yesterday was Mr. Joe Mixon as he led all backs with 29 rushes and more than 4 yards per carry. Mixon finished the game with 127 yards rushing which also led all backs. The Bengals offense looked solid yesterday and as a season long Mixon owner I hope this trend continues.
Deep Threats
Lockett, Schwartz, and Njoku were the top 3 guys this week in terms of Targeted Air Yards. All three averaged at least 20 yard per target. Of the three Locket was the most productive as he finished with 4 receptions for 100 yards. While Lockett isn’t the target monster as some of the other guys he’s always going to be the deep threat favorite of Russell Wilson.
David Njoku led the way for all tight ends with an average of 21 air yards per target. Although he didn’t find the end zone he did finish with 3 catches for 76 yards.
Summary
Week 1 is mostly in the books now with only MNF remaining. What a fun week it was. Murray and Mahomes had beast games at low ownership. As the season goes on this will be a weekly summary while also building out trends that we are seeing. Excited for the 2021 season!
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