Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Week 7 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Wide Receiver Targets
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Through the first half of Sunday’s Ravens/Bengals game we saw virtually no offense. After that Joe Burrow and his group of receivers absolutely took over the game. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 25 targets. While Higgins had more targets, Chase was the guy that really shined brightly.
Chase finished the game with 201 receiving yards on 10 targets. He also found the end zone once. Higgins led the way this week among receivers with 15 targets, although he was only able to corral 7 of them though for 62 years. The Bengals get a match up with the New York Jets next weekend and you have to think that Chase will continue his string of solid games to start his career.
Cooper Kupp now has 4 games with at least 2 touchdowns this year. He also doesn’t have a single game with less than 10 targets. The man is a beast and is one of the most consistent receivers in the game. This week was arguably his best game of the year as he finished the game with 10 catches on 13 targes and 156 yards through the air.
Terry McLaurin is good folks. He had himself another monster game this weekend. McLaurin had his second most receptions this week with 7 on 12 targets. His 12 targets were the fourth time this season he’s had double digit targets. This weekend was also the third time this season he had over 100 yards and the first time since week 4. Up next week for him is a solid match up with the Denver Broncos.
Running Back Targets
For the first time since week 1 D’Andre Swift had double digit targets. After averaging a little more than 4 targets in weeks 3-6 Swift was targeted 10 times on Sunday. He was able to pull in 8 of them for 96 yards receiving and 1 TD. Between rushing and receiving Swift had over 140 all purpose yards. Up next week for Swift and the Lions is a soft match up with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Once Zach Wilson went down the offense for the Jets changed. Michael Carter became a dual threat as Mike White threw to him 9 times yesterday. Before Sunday Carter hadn’t seen more than 3 targets in any game.
Carter was able to the make the most out his targets as he caught 8 of the 9 for 67 yards. If White is back in next week we have to consider Carter if he’s going to get this type of work.
With James White done for the year it was Brandon Bolden that stepped up in the pass catching game. Bolden had a season high 7 targets this weekend and was able to catch 6 of them 79 yards and 1 td.
While he wasn’t as effective on the ground, Bolden is going to give us more productivity with targets than he is rushes. He’s shown all year a high propensity to catch whatever targets are thrown his way as he’s only failed to convert on his targets twice this year.
Tight End Targets
The day ends in Y and Travis Kelce led all tight ends in targets. While he led the way with 12 targets, Kelce did not have a great game. At least by his standards. Kelce was only able to catch 7 of the 12 targets for just 65 yards. The 7 of 12 was his lowest completion % of the season.
If you are a Chiefs fan I’ll apologize for saying this, but yesterday was as disappointing of a game as you’ll see out of them. Up next week is a great rebound spot for the Chiefs as they take on the lowly New York Giants.
Even with Ridley Back, the Falcons are starting to heavily utilize Kyle Pitts. Even though he didn’t find the end zone this weekend, Pitts had one of his best games of the year. On the day he caught 7 of 8 targets for 163 yards. The 163 yards was the most he’s had all year and he now has back to back 100 yard games.
Mike Gesicki continues to be one of the most productive tight ends week in and week out. He averaged nearly 9 targets per week over the last 4 weeks and had another 8 targets this weekend. He was able to catch 7 of the 8 targets this weekend for 85 yards and was able to find the end zone once. Next week is a much tougher match up for Gesicki as him and his teammates take on the Buffalo Bills.
Quarterback Target Share
The combination of Zach Wilson and Mike White went heavy on the targets to their running backs. Out of the combined 41 pass attempts this weekend, 16 went to the combo of Michael Carter and Ty Johnson. Carter and Johnson finished 1 and 2 in terms of targets and receiving yards for the Jets this weekend.
If the Jets have any hopes of righting the ship, they’ll need to get Crowder and Davis more heavily involved in the passing game.
I somewhat highlighted Joe Burrow above, but man, what a game he had. Burrow threw the ball 36 times this weekend, with 32 of the going to his receivers. The trio of Chase, Higgins, and Boyd saw 32 of the 36 targets.
Burrow had a very straight forward plan of attack this weekend. Throw to his receivers often and that plan worked like a charm as the Bengals upset the Ravens in a big divisional match up.
Tua found most comfort this weekend in using his tight ends. Of the 40 passing attempts this weekend, 17 of them went to the group of Gesicki, Smythe, and Shaheen. Gesicki has become a big time favorite of Tua’s and it’s going to be a fun combo to watch the rest of the way.
Running Back Touches
Derrick Henry continues to be a work horse. While this week wasn’t his best, he continues to pound the ball as he had another 29 carries this weekend. That said, His yards per carry were his lowest since week 1. The Titans were up big the entire game yesterday so it’s possible Henry took his foot off the pedal just a little bit.
With Chubb and Hunt both out this weekend the Browns turned to D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson took full advantage of the opportunity. Like full advantage. Johnson carried the ball 22 times for 146 yards and found the end zone once.
After reading some tweets this weekend about how Johnson sent teams in the AAF messages to get try outs, this is as great of a feel good story as there may be this year. If Hunt and Chubb continue to be out, look Johnson to continue to work his tail off.
Jonathan Taylor is really coming into his own. He now has over 100 yards rushing in 3 of his last 4 outing and has rushing touchdowns in 4 straight games. Next week will prove to be a bit tougher as he takes on the Titans. If he continues his strong performance against a tough Titans defense we’ll know this the real Taylor.
Playbook
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend. If we look at a team like the Packers, we can see that they ran the ball almost 60% of the time while only throwing 40% of the time. Between Jones and Dillon the Packers ran the ball 24 times while Rodgers only threw the ball 21 times this week.
With the Cardinals up big time they switched to a more run heavy offense towards the end of the game. Edmonds, Connor, and Murray combined to rush more than 31 times this weekend. The Cardinals didn’t need to rely on Murray’s arm this weekend thanks to the huge lead they had.
Conversely, we had a Chiefs team that was down from the start. Between Mahomes and Henne the Chiefs threw the ball more than 50 times yesterday and only ran the ball 13 times. Mahomes was the leading rusher on the day for the Chiefs with just 35 yards. Has the league figured out Mahomes?
First Look Wrap Up
We are now more almost halfway through this 2021 season. This was as weird of a week as we’ve seen. Derrick Henry had more passing touchdowns than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and Sam Darnold. I hope that the data helps you build either season long lineups or for DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
