Adam Strangis NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown
We’ve come to the final slate of the season and we can’t very well call it a game-by-game breakdown when there is only one, so this article will be set up more like a showdown article since that is the format we have to play. The Rams face the Bengals on Sunday and the builds will be challenging on DraftKings since the best player for fantasy is a crazy amount of money, but that’s what the NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown is for!
Rams at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)
Captain Picks
Cooper Kupp – It’s hard to mount an argument that says Kupp will not have the highest score on the slate, as he averaged 28.2 DK points during the season to this point and nobody is within 5.8 points of that. Kupp has been dominating and consistent, racking up over 2,300 receiving yards in his 20 games and securing 170 receptions. He’s playing around half the snaps in the slot and that is a significant mismatch against Mike Hilton and/or Eli Apple. They both allowed over a 103 passer rating and a catch rate over 69% to go along with 1.65 points per target. Kupp is up to 20 touchdowns on the season and has seen right about 11 targets on average per game. I would not be making a lineup without him on Sunday, be it in the captain spot or just a flex spot.
Tee Higgins – Since they are the underdog, we should expect the Bengals to have a pass-heavy day and Higgins is $4,200 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase which is a massive saving. After a total whiff in the Wild Card round with just one reception, Higgins has bounced back with a total of 19 targets, 13 receptions, and 199 yards with no scores. He’s only fur targets behind Chase in the playoffs and has a higher air yards share, not to mention two red-zone and end zone targets. He should see less of Jalen Ramsey for the Rams and Ramsey may not be invincible (ask Mike Evans), that’s still a boost in the individual matchup. The only slight knock is the aDOT of 11.2 yards has been the highest of the receivers in the playoffs and the Bengals offensive line is going to likely struggle against the pass rush. The under the radar candidate is Tyler Boyd with a 4.2-yard aDOT but his target share has only been 13.6% so far. You’d be banking on work funneling toward him with likely no C.J. Uzomah in this game. Boyd would only be a captain pick in MME formats in my eyes.
Cam Akers – It hasn’t been the easiest ride for Akers getting back from his torn Achilles this postseason but he’s been getting the volume and that’s what we’re after with a running back this cheap. He’s racked up 13, 24, and 17 carries so far and the low mark came when he hurt his shoulder in the NFC title game. He was back practicing fully on Thursday and the Bengals have been very leaky on the ground this postseason. They’ve allowed 127.3 rush yards per game and in honesty, they may not be here if Kansas City had just stuck with running the ball in the AFC title game. Akers hasn’t cleared 55 rushing yards but the two-week break had to do him some good and under $10,000 is very interesting on DK. If Darrell Henderson does end up being active, the appeal for Akers lessens just a bit with Sony Michel lurking as well. I wouldn’t be interested in a committee if that’s where the Rams are going.
Kendall Blanton – It certainly seems like Tyler Higbee will miss the game so if we’re looking for a cheaper approach to the captain position, Blanton could be it. He stepped in for Higbee when the latter went down after just 14 snaps in the NFC title game. Blanton went 5/52 on five targets and during the regular season, not tight end had more red-zone targets than 20 for Higbee. If Blanton can get that level of work and just add a touchdown this week, you’re looking at over 20 DK from the captain spot for one of the cheapest players that is viable. This slate is difficult because neither team uses a lot of players in their offense. Things are concentrated on just a few players and they’re all expensive, so Blanton makes sense in any MME format. It also allows for a build with both quarterbacks, Kupp, and a Bengals receiver.
Flex Plays
Ja’Marr Chase – There’s nothing wrong with playing him and Ramsey doesn’t scare me off, but it’s tough to fit Kupp and Chase AND quarterbacks. It leaves for a much more narrow path and you would need multiple value picks to hit.
Quarterbacks – I can’t tell you to you shouldn’t play a quarterback but neither Matthew Stafford nor Joe Burrow has the best chance to be on top of the leaderboard as far as fantasy scores go. Both have negligible rushing upside and historical trends point toward running backs and receivers being the more optimal captain plays on DraftKings with the PPR format. You can squeeze both in with different builds but if you only play one, make sure it makes sense with the receivers you play. You’re fading a quarterback so you’ll need to make the most out of the stack you do play. Stafford will naturally be a little more popular with Kupp and he’s played a little better than Burrow so far.
Odell Beckham Jr. – He’s certainly not washed up and he’s just gotten better as the playoffs have gone, earning four, eight, and then 11 targets. If you do not play Kupp, OBJ is practically a requirement but I don’t know if I have the stomach for that. I’m more likely to play him in a build where I go Rams onslaught WITH Kupp and Stafford.
Joe Mixon – He’s one player I’m having a tougher time getting to just because of the salary and the Rams have shut down the opposing running game so far. They were fifth in DVOA against the run in the regular season and backed it up by allowing under 60 yards rushing per game in the playoffs. He’ll be involved in the passing game with 12 targets through the playoffs but I’m not sure that’s enough to make me pay the salary. I really love the passing games more than the run games for the most part.
Kickers-D/ST – I would be willing to play one of each in any one lineup, such as Evan McPherson or Matt Gay. The Bengals defense has been an underrated story in the playoffs with a total of eight sacks and seven turnovers forced while not allowing more than 24 points. The Rams have been strong as well with five turnovers forced and five sacks but they have the much better matchup against the Bengals offensive line that allowed the most sacks in football.
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