NFL DFS Strategy – My Bible for Consistent ROI

It’s times like these (COVID-19) where we can really start to evaluate who we were as a DFS player over the past year. In this instance, I’ll be discussing my NFL DFS Strategy that has certainly made me a much more (consistent) successful player, whether that be the NFL or recently canceled, XFL. 

First thing’s first, I started off like most of you… making multiple random lineups with players that I thought would have big games in hopes that I can finish towards the top of the Millionaire Maker Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP). Well, I have yet to win the Millionaire Maker and I’d be willing to bet you haven’t either.

In all honesty, it took me a few years to realize I was pissing money away chasing a top-10 finish in the Millionaire Maker style of tournaments and that was frustrating. I was often picking great players (some low-owned, some more chalky) and building strong lineups that put up a significant chunk of points, but on good weeks I’d maybe only profit $100 when I played $60-80 in GPP entries (1.75x – 2.5x ROI). It doesn’t take a financial guru to figure out that this was no way to significantly build up my bankroll.

I was always seeing screenshots of “big-time players” winning five-digit payouts, but also playing well over $1,000 in entries (now, I prefer to play against those goons and take their money, but we’ll get to that). I would look at their lineups and see that they really weren’t that good (and they still aren’t). But they were making a stronger return on their investment and I wasn’t. It was time to hit the drawing board and learn more about this industry.

So what changed?

Obviously, learning more about the industry was a huge benefit for my NFL DFS Strategy. Listening to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports. Reading articles from other DFS content providers. And listening to podcasts of players that consistently make a decent amount of money in DFS. Through all of the research that I did over the years (and I’m sure most of you have done also), there are really three things that have made me a consistent, successful NFL DFS Football player:

1. DFS Bankroll Dispersion

We have all heard the experts give their take on bankroll management. But I’m here to dumb it down for you. My main goal is to TEACH you how to become a better player without overwhelming you. Whether you have 10 minutes or 10 hours per day to study DFS, you can be successful. Obviously, if you don’t have a lot of time to do research we’re here to help with that. But I also want to make you a better player, long-term.

So what does everyone mean with “bankroll management”? How do we pick better contests to give us the most bang for our buck? To me, it’s true bankroll management is a combination of contest selection and having a disciplined approach to your DFS wallet.

Everyone says “play in smaller tournaments to give yourself a better chance at cashing.” Sure, that is important, but that is not necessarily a player-agnostic theory in my opinion. Some players play a lot of cash games, some play more multi-entry GPP tournaments, single-entry GPPs, others play head-to-head… how can one theory on contest selection be the saving grace to your bankroll? Hint: it can’t.

Personally, I’m now what I like to call a “hybrid” NFL DFS player. On a normal slate of football, I’ll invest my bankroll as such:

• 50-60% of that week’s allotted bankroll towards SINGLE ENTRY cash games
• 30-40% towards smaller field SINGLE ENTRY GPPs
• The remaining 0-10% in your classic Millionaire Maker type of GPP (DFS is still meant to be fun and taking a shot at a million dollars for $10-20 is always something that will be fun for me)

For each portion of my investments, my thoughts on contest selection are different and yours should be too. This is where I think it’s utterly lazy for any DFS content provider to puff their chest and say “play in smaller fields and you have a better shot at winning.” Again, that may be true, but it depends on what type of DFS investor you really are.

2. More Exposure to Single Entry DFS Cash Games

As you see above, Single Entry Cash Games are responsible for the majority of my weekly DFS bankroll. For the record, I used to HATE playing cash games. They’re not sexy. There is absolutely no difference in pay when you finish just slightly above half of the field and when you finish top-10.

“Why the hell would anyone want to play a lot of cash games?”
– Me when I was struggling to make a profit through a year of NFL DFS.

So why do I now invest over 50% of my weekly bankroll into cash games? I think the answer to that is pretty easy to figure out: You are not going to cash in your GPPs every week. And likely not more than 40% of the weeks you do play GPPs. It didn’t take me long to realize the truth. I’m incredibly more likely to click the “deposit” button on DraftKings/FanDuel instead of the “withdraw” button if I only min-cash in GPPs once a month during the football season.

Sure, if you finish towards the very top of a GPP it can float your DFS bankroll for months, sometimes more. Hell, I bought my Fiancee the engagement ring of her dreams from one week of big GPP hits (not trying to brag, that is the beauty of DFS, you CAN make life changing money). But, for me personally (after countless weeks of learning the importance of Cash Games for bankroll sustainability) Cash Games are my king.

I look at it this way, I will always have a strong game-plan and lineup build for my cash games… So, I expect to cross the pay-line every single week (we always need to have goals, set yours high, but also attainable). If I’m playing a bit liberal and only using 50% of my bankroll for cash games, the worst I can do that week is break-even (assuming my cash game lineup cashes).

That is the difference for me. More times than not, my worst weeks are breaking even because I hit my cash games, but my GPP stands didn’t smash. This way, my bankroll never takes a significant hit (unless all hell breaks loose and my cash games suck too, and that is just going to happen sometime in sports).

Obviously, there are going to be a few strange weeks. Maybe your QB gets injured or some unforeseeable event that can ruin your lineup. But other than that, I expect that we’re going to hit our cash game lineups. And at worst, break-even on the week with my bankroll dispersion (at least 50% invested in cash, the rest in GPPs).

NFL DFS Strategy: Single-Entry Cash Game Basics

Really, it’s quite simple for me, I mainly try to focus on the methods below:

• Try to find a lineup that projects around that 150 point mark (this isn’t the golden rule, but on average, this is a good target for DraftKings… probably a little less on FanDuel with 0.5 PPR, but the higher the better, obviously).
  • You can use our projection model (or any projection source you use and trust from the past) and our free, Cash Game Value Sheet that we will have available all season long. It will help you get a better grasp of your lineup’s expected output.
    
• Don’t stack like crazy in cash games! (Remember, if that game goes poorly, your whole lineup does… not a risk we want to take in cash games).
  
• Single entry cash games with preferably no more than 3,000 entrants and have a minimum of 100 entrants. This is an optimal spot that gives you the best odds of cashing, less variance, but enough variance… if that makes sense.
  
• If there is a “free square” type of player that is heavily discounted, and going to be ~50% owned or higher, It’s probably best to ALWAYS play that player in cash games (if you believe it’s good chalk).
  • For example, when Devonta Freeman went down last year, Brian Hill was monster chalk in his first game as the starting RB. He didn’t do much, but 85% of the field rostered him in cash games. So it didn’t matter how poorly Hill played, it was not going to kill your cash lineup. Had he gone off, you would be dead in the water trying to play catch up with 85% of the field… just don’t risk it in cash games.
  • We will be evaluating the “chalk” players throughout the 2020 NFL season. Certain weeks last year, the industry somehow made Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird chalky players. We were never sold that Ballage or Laird truly deserve the “free square” roster spot. I could never get behind a 2019 Miami RB and it greatly helped me gain some leverage against the field in cash games last season… Again, something we will evaluate on a weekly basis.

3. NFL DFS Strategy: Consistent Contest Selection

Again, everyone talks about contest selection. And probably beats a dead horse when discussing it. I’ll make things simple and highlight what I look for in a GPP contest before entering. Obviously, I’ll take shots on the Millionaire Maker and other brutally top-heavy payout structures. But again, I only use about 0-10% of my bankroll for those.

• Step 1: Check the “rake” and the “minimum pay” for your GPPs! If the GPP doesn’t give you 2x your entry (aka $20 entry fee and min cash is $40), why play it when you can just play a cash game that pays you 2x and pays out the top ~48% of entries? For example, if you’re playing a $1 GPP, why would you want to play it if the minimum payout is $1.50? It’s going to be hard to build a bankroll doing that every week.
  
• Step 2: try to find GPPs that pay the top ~22% or above (you can obviously play riskier, but that’s a personal preference of mine). You can find this by simply clicking on a tournament > clicking “Contest Details” > look at the number of entrants > look at “Places Paid”. Take that places paid number and divide it by the total number of entrants allowed.
  • For example, on DraftKings, the NFL $1 Hundo [Single Entry] allows for 100 entrants and the places paid = 22. Therefore, this GPP pays out the top 22% of the field (22/100). That is an excellent tournament for you to join as it is 22% or higher mentioned in the bullet point above. Every percent counts if you’re trying to make the most of your money! One percent in payout structure can be the difference between your lineup cashing or your lineup losing!
    
• Don’t expect to win every week! GPPs are risky. Cash Games are safer. Both are still difficult to win every week! Stick to your bankroll discipline. Play better tournaments that meet the above requirements. Give yourself a better chance to win consistently. This article is not a guarantee that you’ll win tens of thousands of dollars. But it will 100% help you get better at DFS and start to play with a purpose (which then will lead to more sustainable success in DFS).
  
• Lastly, have fun! Football is awesome. Make the most of the quick season. Don’t risk your life on DFS, have fun with it!

Make sure to follow Nick on Twitter @StixPicks and check out more of his articles on Win Daily Sports!

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