NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

Football is finally here! It feels like we’ve been without the best game in the world for years but the wait is over; it’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
• UPDATE: Marvin Jones is a cash lock for me now with Golladay out.
• Antonio Gibson Chalk Week: It’s interesting the field is so heavy on a rookie without a truly defined role.
  UPDATE: I’m eating the Gibson chalk for cash games.
  
  Moving to Boston Scott. Lock him in.
  
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD) – You don’t need me to tell you Lamar Jackson is in play. He’s the top QB option on this slate and a perfect start to your cash game build. I’m not going to pay for his price-tag on either sites for cash games, but he has much more value on DK this week if you choose to roster him.
   AETY Projection: 24.19 points
   
2. Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – Wilson is likely going to be the most popular QB on the Sunday main slate… and for good reason. This Atlanta pass defense is likely to struggle against Seattle’s offensive weapons. Russell Wilson is about as safe as they come this week for cash builds as he goes under center for a team with an implied total of 25.5 points.
   AETY Projection: 21.86 points
   
3. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – I have no idea why the DFS community isn’t all aboard the Jimmy G train this week. This dude had career games both times he met up with Vance Joseph’s defensive scheme last season (over 31 DK points both starts). He’s incredibly cheap and grades out as the #1 value on the Win Daily Sports AETY Model (Adjusted Expected Total Yards). Love him in cash, love him in GPPs.
   AETY Projection: 18.82 points
   
   Update: Not as high on him now with the receiving options limited and air-quality issues that threaten this game being able to be played. I love the pivot up to Aaron Rodgers ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) if I can find a way to afford it.
   
4. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Disgusting, I know. If you want to get weird and go to the bottom of the barrel for salary relief, I’m telling you Trubisky is 100% in play. He’s much more likely to be on my GPP lineups as opposed to cash, but if you’d rather pay up for stud RBs/WRs (try to make it work with Jimmy G), you can do worse that Trubisky.
   
   He has excellent numbers against Patricia’s man coverage, but he’s the only QB in this article who doesn’t have a proven history of protecting the football. It’s risky, but it’s in play for NFL DFS cash games this week.
   AETY Projection: 17.44 points

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) | Josh Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,900 FD) | Cam Newton ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Running Backs

1. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DK/FD) – It’s Christian McCaffrey. He’s always in play until further notice. I don’t think you have to use him in Week 1, but it’s hard not to lock him in.
   AETY Projection: 26.71 DK / 23.69 FD
   
2. Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – Cook is likely to be overlooked by the NFL DFS world in Week 1, so I prefer him in GPPs, but he’s certainly in play for cash games. Green Bay did improve their defense in the off-season, but this squad ranked 27th in Run Defense DVOA in 2019… That doesn’t bode well for the Packers against a Gary Kubiak outside-zone, run scheme.
   AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
   
3. Josh Jacobs ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – My golden boy for 2020, Josh Jacobs. Lock him in for all formats this week against Carolina and their dead last ranking in run defense DVOA. I have Jacobs projected for over 90 yards rushing, which is by far the highest amount on this slate. Play him and don’t look back.
   AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.42 FD
   
4. Joe Mixon ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Joe Mixon is way too cheap for the expected workload he’s about to receive this season. Despite having a terrible offensive line and passing attack in Cincinnati last season, Mixon balled out and regularly saw 20+ touches per game.
   
   The Chargers’ defense rated 25th in run defense DVOA last season which is always nice to target, but Mixon’s workload will keep him in play against anyone despite their defense. I don’t love him this week, but he’s going to get a lot of touches.
   AETY Projection: 16.90 DK / 15.74 FD
   
5. Chris Carson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – No idea why people aren’t on Chris Carson this season (mainly speaking for season-long, but the DFS community apparently wants no part of him either). Seattle is a run first offense that averaged over 130 yards per game on the ground last season… Atlanta gave up over 120 yards on the ground per game last season. They’re defense looks a bit better on paper (more-so the secondary), but at this price, Carson has my interest.
   AETY Projection: 17.19 DK / 15.92 FD
   
6. Antonio Gibson ($4,000 DK / $4,600 FD) – Enter Antonio Gibson chalk week. I don’t quite understand why the field is so high on Gibson in his first game out against arguably the best run defense in the NFL (outside of the value in his price). Usually, I’d say just lock him in because the ownership warrants it for cash games, but I’m 100% okay if you choose to fade him here.
   
   I don’t see simple path to success unless they use him as an inside receiver against these Philadelphia linebackers. Sometimes, you just need to play it safe and eat the chalk. I’m not thrilled about it, but he’s likely to be in my main cash lineup.
   AETY Projection: 11.24 DK / 9.95 FD
   
   Update: Boston Scott now a great play for cash games
   
   Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) | Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) | FD Only: Marlon Mack ($6,100 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

1. Michael Thomas ($9,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Like McCaffrey, I don’t need to elaborate on Michael Thomas. Top receiver on the slate and likely the highest in ownership.
   AETY Projection: 21.35 DK / 17.53 FD
   
2. Davante Adams ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – Remember DeAndre Hopkins’ production in Houston? Hopefully you didn’t overpay for Hopkins this season as he moves to Arizona, but that’s a conversation for another day.
   
   Back to Hopkins production in Houston… Targets, targets, and more targets. This dude had over 31% of the target share each of the last three seasons! That won’t happen in Arizona and may not happen in the NFL again this season. If it does, that man is going to be Davante Adams in Green Bay.
   
   Adams is the only game in town (for now) and is likely to receive 10+ targets on a weekly basis. The skillset is there, the quarterback is there, and most of all, the volume is going to be there. Adams is a perfect target for your cash game lineup against this Minnesota secondary (who were great last year, but likely awful in 2020 due to significant personnel changes). It’s a fine salary saving pivot off of Michael Thomas… one that I prefer.
   AETY Projection: 18.34 DK / 14.78 FD
   
3. DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – I’m not a DJ Moore truther like most, but if you don’t use McCaffrey, I’m cool with you rocking DJ Moore against a likely improved, but still underwhelming secondary for Las Vegas. This game has sneaky shoot-out potential and Moore would be a recipient of a lot of targets in that scenario.
   AETY Projection: 14.21 DK / 11.37 FD
   
4. Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Criminally priced on DK. Golladay projects as the second best receiver on the slate for me in terms of overall production. I do get worried about Marvin Jones stealing red-zone targets, but Golladay is going to be busy on Sunday. It’s hard to pass up on the value here.
   AETY Projection: 17.14 DK / 14.36 FD
   
   Update: Marvin Jones now likely a MUST-PLAY in cash games with Golladay ruled out.
   
5. Allen Robinson ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On the other side of this Lions’ game is an absolute target monster who tears up man coverage. Allen Robinson projects as the third best receiver on this slate and I’ll have a lot of exposure to him this week. I like this game as another sneaky shoot-out and a big performance by Robinson.
   AETY Projection: 16.61 DK / 13.68 FD
   
6. DK Metcalf ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Lock in Metcalf this week for cash games. His price is too low in a plus-matchup against a young/bad Atlanta secondary. Metcalf is going to be extremely popular this weekend (in a game with a total approaching 50 points) and that makes him hard to fade in NFL DFS cash games… especially with a ceiling as high as his.
   AETY Projection: 14.71 DK / 12.42 FD
   
7. Marquise Brown ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD) – Similar to Metcalf, the upside with Marquise Brown is almost second-to-none. At this price tag, he’s extremely valuable and is going to be popular. I prefer using Brown in GPP formats when he’s lower owned due to the lack in volume (Baltimore is the most run-heavy offense in the NFL… and they’re great at it), but he’s in play this week for cash games at the high ownership.
   
   Personally, I’ll do whatever I can to pay up for Metcalf instead of Brown, but you can certainly use Brown or both of them if your lineup build demands that you do so.
   AETY Projection: 12.78 DK / 10.45 FD
   
8. Preston Williams ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – I can’t just write about players everyone likes… so we’ll be the only website on the planet that touts Preston Williams for Week 1 NFL DFS cash games. DeVante Parker is likely to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore and that’s going to open up a lot for Preston Williams on the other side.
   
   He is coming off of a knee injury so proceed with caution on Williams, but he has Metcalf-like upside and will be un-rostered by the public. He is cash viable this week at this price point (pending his health… keep an eye on that).
   AETY Projection: 12.18 DK / 9.97 FD
   
   Update: No need to get this cute. Marvin Jones value opened up the world for us.
   
   Honorable Mention: Chris Godwin ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) | Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) | DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) | Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK/FD)| Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD)

Tight Ends

1. George Kittle ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There is a zero percent chance I roster Kittle in cash games, but he has the highest ceiling out of all of the tight ends on this slate. Last year, we always played the tight-end against Arizona. Kittle faces Arizona… if you can afford him, rock him.
   AETY Projection: 14.84 DK / 12.38 FD
   
2. Zach Ertz ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Ertz is the only receiving threat on this offense right now with a banged-up Miles Sanders and depleted wide receiving core. Don’t get cute, Ertz is a smash, cash game play at this price.
   AETY Projection: 14.20 DK / 11.58 FD
   
3. Hayden Hurst ($4,300 DK / $5,200 FD) – Hard to ignore Hurst at this price-tag now that he has joined the Atlanta Falcons (one of the best tight-end production systems in the NFL). I’ll leave it at that.
   
   Update: I am not as high on him after diving into the matchup against Seattle’s new secondary (mainly Jamaal Adams). He’ll be a fade for me in GPPs.
   AETY Projection: 11.20 DK / 9.34 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: DK Only: Dallas Goedert ($4,100 DK) | Jack Doyle ($3,600 DK)

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Buffalo Bills ($3,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
2. New England Patriots ($3,200 DK / $4,600 FD)
3. Baltimore Ravens ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
4. Indianapolis Colts ($3,000 DK / $3,700 FD)
5. Washington Football Team ($2,000 DK / $3,400 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Josh Jacobs
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Marvin Jones
WR: DK Metcalf
TE: Jack Doyle
FLEX: Antonio Gibson
DST: Colts

Good luck to all!

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