NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown

It was refreshing to see a normal (if not below-average) pay-line in our NFL DFS Cash Games in Week 8, to say the least. Let’s get right back at it for another solid Week 9.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
• I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
• Chalk Report: Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett all project for over 20% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $9,000) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a Buffalo defense who has surprisingly struggled at all facets of the game. Somehow DraftKings lowered his price from last week?
   
2. Josh Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Allen hasn’t done much lately but for every other quarterback in the NFL, this has been the get-right spot against Seattle’s 30th ranked pass defense (in DVOA). Seattle is the ultimate pass-funnel defense and Allen also offers a lot of upside with his legs. He should have no issues getting over 22 fantasy points this weekend.
   
3. Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Herbert is absolutely on fire while averaging over 27 DraftKings’ points per game since being named the starter. The Raiders’ defense as a whole is absolute trash and coming into this week ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA. Like Allen and Russ, Herbert offers a lot of upside with his rushing abilities. It’s hard to not love him this week.
   
4. Drew Lock ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need the savings on DraftKings, Lock makes a ton of sense against Atlanta and their pass-funnel defense. Atlanta ranks second in opposing quarterback fantasy points per game (over 25 points allowed per game), so if there’s any week to trust Drew Lock, it’s this week. The return of Tim Patrick helps lock significantly as well.
   
   Honorable Mention: DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger

Running Backs

1. Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $9,300 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook against Detroit’s run defense. No need to overthink it, you likely must eat the chalk on this one in NFL DFS cash games. He’s pricey and I honestly don’t think he’s a “must-play” as long as the rest of your lineup is sexy.
   
2. James Conner ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The Cowboys are absolute trash as a whole and even worse against opposing running backs (29th in run defense DVOA). Pair that with the Steelers being a 14.5-point favorite and that should equal a ton of James Conner production in Week 9. The only concern here is potential blowout but Conner should be a lock for 3x value no matter how this game unfolds.
   
3. Chase Edmonds ($6,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel. Lock him in against the worst run defense in the NFL. Kenyan Drake is out, it’s wheels up for Chase Edmonds at home. He will 100% be in my cash game lineup.
   
4. DeeJay Dallas ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – Carlos Hyde is out. Chris Carson is out. There’s really no one outside of a banged up Travis Homer who is going to compete with Dallas for the Seahawks’ backfield snaps. I don’t expect a ton out of DeeJay Dallas, but the savings open up a lot for your NFL DFS cash game lineup against Buffalo’s 24th ranked run defense (DVOA).
   
   I look at it this way, we’re getting extremely cheap exposure to the 2nd best offense on this slate in the highest total game on this slate. DeeJay Dallas should have no problems getting to 14-15 fantasy points.
   
   UPDATE: Love Justin Jackson in cash
   
   Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jackson, David Johnson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receivers

1. Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The target share is just so elite with Herbert under center and the matchup against the Raiders and Lamarcus Joyner is arguably more elite. 25 targets over the past two games!
   
2. Tyler Lockett ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – Our weekly “pick on Taron Johnson” write-up just happens to be Tyler Lockett. Yes, he disappointed a bit last week but Lockett will have a big game on the road here in Buffalo. Taron Johnson is one of the worst cover slot-cornerbacks in the NFL and Lockett is one of the best overall slot receivers in football. Let’s go.
   
3. Stefon Diggs ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – On the other side of Tyler Lockett is my favorite route runner in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. You shouldn’t need me to say a whole lot about Stefon Diggs in this matchup against the Seahawks. He’s in line for ~7 catches for 90 yards. If this game stays up-paced, that’s going to be his floor. I don’t care what the coverage scheme is against Diggs, if Allen is halfway competent, Diggs is in for a huge day.
   
4. Julio Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,200 FD) – I’m under the impression that Calvin Ridley is OUT. If so, Julio Jones is going to be one busy man on Sunday against a Broncos’ defense that will be without their top cornerback, AJ Bouye.
   
5. Marvin Jones ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – No Golladay this week equals Marvin Jones lock button against Minnesota’s poor excuse for a secondary. It’s that simple.
   
6. Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – I know Tim Patrick was out last week and that clearly opened up a lot for Jerry Jeudy, but he’s clearly earning more trust and target share with Drew Lock. Against this Atlanta secondary (who we pick on weekly) in the dome, Jeudy’s route running should be on display. He’s way too cheap and offers a nice bit of salary relief for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.
   
   UPDATE: Sterling Shepard added to cash WR pool
   
   Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There’s no one more consistent at the tight-end position than Kelce. If you can afford him, you play him.
   
2. Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Waller was a bit of a let down last week in the wild weather of Cleveland, but he should be in a prime spot in a shootout against the Chargers with a pre-match total sitting at 52 points. Outside of Kelce, no one has as high of a team target share than Waller.
   
3. Noah Fant ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – The Falcons’ secondary gets torched by any sort of pass catcher. Fant is due for a big breakout game in 2020 and that may come in Week 9 if this game can keep a solid pace. Fant looks to be the chalkiest tight end on this slate so if you want to chase that in cash games, I won’t talk you off of it.
   
4. Evan Engram ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – The air yards have been through the roof lately with Engram and the targets obviously are climbing up as well (19 combined targets over the past two weeks). I absolutely hate the pace that we’ll likely see in this game, but at this price, Engram is in play.
   
5. Hayden Hurst ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) – If Ridley misses this game, that should be a decent bump up to one of my favorite tight ends in the NFL (who has seen his target share raise consistently over the past few weeks). If this game has a high pace like I think it will, let’s ride Hayden Hurst.
   
   Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Washington Football Team
3. Houston Texans
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. New York Giants

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Drew Lock
RB: DeeJay Dallas
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Jerry Jeudy
WR: Marvin Jones
TE: Hayden Hurst
FLEX: Chase Edmonds
DST: Washington