NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

Week 5 was a perfect get right for our NFL DFS Cash Games and we did not get disappointed. Let’s stay hot for Week 6! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
• Quarterback seems wide open, lot of nice options there.
• David Montgomery & Alexander Mattison Chalk Week. I get the Montgomery play with his price, but Mattison is a bit expensive on DraftKings to be considered a “lock” in cash games. He’s perfect on FanDuel.
• Looks like a great week to get value WRs – lock in AJ Brown in cash.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Very expensive, but likely holds the highest floor out of any quarterback on this slate (if you believe his knee is good to go). Per usual, I doubt I pay up for Jackson, but if your build finds a way to fit him in, do it.
   AETY Projection: 24.51 points
   
2. DeShaun Watson ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – The AETY model can’t quit DeShaun Watson and for good reason, he’s hit 3x value the past two weeks. This matchup projects to be one of the highest in pace and offers a total over 53 points. Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it would be this year (ranked 11th in DVOA), but I trust Watson and this healthy Houston wide receiving core to hit value in NFL DFS cash games.
   AETY Projection: 23.12 points
   
3. Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD) – Every week we attack this incredibly banged-up Jacksonville passing defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA (and giving up over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks). Stafford and the Lions are coming off of the bye and should be ready to rock. Locking in Stafford is an easy decision this week for cash games.
   AETY Projection: 20.55 points
   
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – If you need more savings for the rest of your lineup (on DraftKings), Fitzpatrick is probably as low as I would go. Miami is a massive home favorite here which sets the table nicely for the running game, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins like to start games with a very high pace and that should bode well for Fitzpatrick against the 31st ranked passing defense.
   AETY Projection: 20.28 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

1. Derrick Henry ($7,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pound for pound the top-dog running back on this slate and Houston’s run defense ranks 5th worst on this slate. I expected a huge game from James Robinson last week but Jacksonville abandoned the run rather quickly. Tennessee commits to running the football and Henry is likely to have the best odds to score in comparison to any other running back on the slate. He’s likely to come in > 40% in ownership in cash games this week.
   
   The model has him projected for over 110 rushing yards… That’s juicy.
   AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.86 FD
   
2. Alexander Mattison ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Everyone is going to play Mattison this week in cash games. I can’t believe these DFS sites actually priced a backup RB coming into an RB1 workload correctly, that usually never happens. I hate this price point because Dalvin Cook himself is usually at this price point, but it’s probably good chalk to eat in NFL DFS cash games.
   AETY Projection: 20.39 DK / 18.91 FD
   
3. James Robinson ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – Incredibly cheap on FanDuel so that’s where you’re likely going to want to use him more frequently this week, but Robinson is certainly in play in all formats this week against the Lions’ 31st ranked run defense (in DVOA). They cannot stop the run and Robinson also has plenty of pass-catching upside if Detroit gets ahead early and forces Jacksonville into an up-paced gamescript.
   
   Having said that, Devine Ozigbo is back for Jacksonville this week so it will be interesting to see if he takes some snaps away from J-Rob. I doubt it, but keep an eye on it.
   AETY Projection: 18.27 DK / 16.61 FD
   
4. Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Hopefully this game can be played despite the Covid-19 rumors going around. This is a sexy price for Taylor as a big home-favorite going up against a defense giving up over five yards per carry. Smash spot for Taylor.
   AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 17.41 FD
   
5. Ronald Jones ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites (especially FanDuel). Green Bay and Tampa Bay currently have the highest total on this slate (54.5 points) and you’re going to want to get exposure to that. If Fournette is out, Jones is likely a lock-button for my cash game lineup against Green Bay’s 25th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA), giving up almost five yards per carry.
   AETY Projection: 16.72 DK / 15.03 FD
   
6. David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – Its Carolina’s run defense. Todd Gurley just tore them up… lock in Montgomery in cash games (as everyone in the field will) and move to the rest of your build.
   AETY Projection: 18.81 DK / 16.19 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – A healthy Davante Adams is always in play for NFL DFS cash games. He’s quite pricey, but he’s likely the slate leader in target share in the highest total game in Week Six.
   AETY Projection: 17.59 DK / 14.35 FD
   
2. Calvin Ridley ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Similar to Adams, Calvin Ridley is likely viable for cash games on a weekly basis, especially in this matchup against Minnesota’s secondary (who has been improving a bit over the past few weeks). Ridley is too expensive for my builds, but I would not talk you off of Ridley in a shootout against Minnesota.
   AETY Projection: 16.26 DK / 13.39 FD
   
3. Adam Thielen ($7,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – I hate to just list all of the top wide receivers on this slate, but any WR1 against Atlanta is in play for cash games. If you’re not using Mattison, use one of these Vikings receivers in Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
   AETY Projection: 20.54 DK / 16.68 FD
   
4. Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Always have interest in Golladay when he’s priced like a low-tier WR1. The sky is the limit for Golladay in this matchup against Jacksonville. We will see plenty of Marvin Jones in this one as well and that’s always a bit of a headache, so I do prefer to get my Detroit exposure through Stafford, but Golladay is a great value at these price points.
   AETY Projection: 17.26 DK / 14.34 FD
   
5. AJ Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you don’t want to roster Derrick Henry, roll with AJ Brown for your Tennessee exposure. Yes, Bradley Roby has looked incredibly impressive in shadow coverage (and he will shadow Brown on Sunday), but Brown is too talented for Roby to simply shut down AJ Brown. He’s too cheap and a perfect way to get exposure to this up-paced game against Houston.
   AETY Projection: 16.34 DK / 13.52 FD
   
6. Chase Claypool ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – I hate chasing recent blow-up games, but with Diontae Johnson ruled out, Chase Claypool becomes an easy value play I’m 100% going to roster in cash games. He’s absolutely massive and runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. I’m extremely excited to see this dude with a full workload of snaps. Against Cleveland’s secondary, he should have plenty of opportunities to show off his abilities yet again.
   AETY Projection: 12.84 DK / 10.58 FD
   
7. Randall Cobb ($4,400 DK) – DraftKings value play. Tennessee has a very tough time covering slot wideouts and Cobb is one of my personal favorites. He’s still an excellent route runner and the target share continues to climb with DeShaun Watson on a weekly basis. I want a piece of Houston and Tennessee in my cash build this week.
   AETY Projection: 11.26 DK
   
   Honorable Mention: DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Laviska Shenault

Tight Ends

1. Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Easily the top tight end on this slate. Roster him if you can afford him. The AETY Model doesn’t love his ability to get close to 2x value on FanDuel, but he has the highest touchdown upside of any tight end in football.
   AETY Projection: 13.90 DK / 11.63 FD
   
2. Zach Ertz ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) – I know, he’s been borderline useless in fantasy this season, but the targets are consistently there for Zach Ertz. This Philadelphia passing attack is improving each week and getting closer to fully healthy. I like Ertz’ ability to hit 2x value this Sunday against the inside of this Baltimore pass-defense.
   AETY Projection: 12.58 DK / 10.24 FD
   
3. Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Washington is giving up over 15 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing tight ends. I know there’s nothing really sexy about Engram thus far this season, but he should have a handful of opportunities to hit value. I don’t love it, but it’s a nasty slate for tight end options.
   AETY Projection: 11.07 DK / 8.96 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, Trey Burton, Eric Ebron, Irv Smith Jr.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. New England Patriots
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Washington Football Team
4. New York Giants
5. Miami Dolphins

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Alexander Mattison
RB: David Montgomery
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Chase Claypool
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Ronald Jones
DST: Miami