NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 4 Cash Games Checkdown

Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS Cash Games lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at QB/WR/RB, but TE is getting slim. There should be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
• Looks like a safe week for your Quarterback. Don’t get too cute when Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Murray, Allen, Watson, and Wilson are all on the same slate.
• It’s Alvin Kamara chalk week – MUST PLAYS in cash games
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Games Quaterbacks

1. Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model likes him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a brutal pass defense (25th in pass defense DVOA) with Miami.
   
   Regardless of Miami’s ability to keep it close, Wilson is going to have a solid floor. He’s quite pricey though…
   AETY Projection: 25.38 points
   
2. Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – It’s Patrick Mahomes and he’s not the most expensive (or the second most expensive) quarterback on the slate. No need to dive into this one in great detail.
   AETY Projection: 23.50 points
   
3. Josh Allen ($7,300 / $8,600 FD) – I don’t know when Josh Allen is not going to be in play this year. Similar to Wilson, Josh Allen is a man on a mission this season and offers DFS players one of the highest floors in NFL DFS Cash Games. Ride him against this Las Vegas secondary.
   AETY Projection: 23.03 points
   
4. Kyler Murray ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 28th ranked pass defense DVOA in Carolina. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray on a weekly basis.
   AETY Projection: 24.02 points
   
5. DeShaun Watson ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) – I’ve talked about this Minnesota secondary (or lack thereof) on a weekly basis every week this season as one of the best matchups for opposing quarterbacks. Fire up Watson in this smash spot in a must-win game for a motivated Houston team at home. The rushing upside paired with the matchup make this price-point the best value at the QB position.
   AETY Projection: 24.32 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

1. Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD) – Over 40% of the field is going to roster Alvin Kamara in cash games this weekend. There’s absolutely no reason to fade that in cash. Hell, it’s hard to fade him in GPPs.
   
   Update: NO MICHAEL THOMAS = MORE KAMARA. Lock him in for cash games.
   AETY Projection: 25.27 DK / 22.18 FD
   
2. Joe Mixon ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) – Good lord the price on Joe Mixon is way too low. I get that he hasn’t done much at all this season, but he’s still Joe Mixon. Mixon finally received over 70% of the snaps last week (Ghost and I called that on the Livestream… boom) but the production hasn’t shown up yet. Mixon is likely in for a big game soon and at this price and chalk-ownership, lock him into your cash game lineup.
   AETY Projection: 17.81 DK / 16.57 FD
   
   Injury concerns
   
3. Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – Hello, my boy, Dalvin Cook. Thank you for the points last week! The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook again this week as you can run all over the Texans who rank 24th in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for another big day.
   AETY Projection: 23.01 DK / 21.32 FD
   
4. Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – We always lock in the RB1 against the Panthers. Week in, week out, it is the nuts matchup and I don’t see that changing this week. If your build can afford him, use him. Reminder: don’t pair him up with Kyler Murray in cash.
   AETY Projection: 18.01 DK / 16.90 FD
   
5. David Johnson ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD) – Everything about Minnesota’s defense is dreadful and we need some value on this slate. I’m not in love with anything in David Johnson’s game, but he offers us salary relief and a decent floor in PPR with all of the pass catching. I don’t see either defenses being able to stop one another, so DJ should have a solid workload. I don’t love it, but he’s in play for cash.
   AETY Projection: 17.49 DK / 15.96 FD
   
6. Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Cam Akers is out, I’ll certainly have some interest in Henderson at home as a 13-point favorite. We don’t need to get too deep here, that’s a great spot for home-favorite running backs.
   AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 14.16 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Ezekiel Elliott, Devin Singletary (lock in cash if Moss is out), Myles Gaskin, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, Carlos Hyde (if Carson is out)

Wide Receivers

1. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – Super expensive, but always in play for cash games with this target share. I probably cannot afford him in NFL DFS Cash Games, but I won’t tell you not to use him.
   AETY Projection: 20.96 DK / 16.75 FD
   
2. DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $6,900 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against Miami’s secondary in a game with a total over 54 points. I’m likely to ride with Metcalf due to the price savings, but they’re both in incredible spots.
   Metcalf AETY Projection: 18.25 DK / 15.42 FD
   Lockett AETY Projection: 19.38 DK / 15.81 FD
   
3. DJ Moore ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – He’s simply way too cheap on DraftKings in a game with a total of 51 points and a gamescript where the Panthers should be chasing points. I’m not worried about this Arizona secondary whatsoever. Carolina is a pass-first offense and Moore is being fed with targets on a weekly basis. He’s likely everyone’s pay-down receiver in cash games.
   AETY Projection: 17.37 DK / 14.21 FD
   
4. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – This Dallas secondary is in absolute shambles. Literally every wide receiving core is tearing them to shreds. I know Cleveland is one of the best run offenses in the NFL, but there will be plenty to go around for Beckham against Dallas corners’ Jourdan Lewis, Daryl Worley, and Trevon Diggs.
   AETY Projection: 16.82 DK / 13.42 FD
   
   *If Odell misses this game or is limited in any capacity, Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) is certainly in play.
   
5. Kenny Golladay ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – This is the cheapest we’ll ever see Golladay again, so I’m likely to jam him in my cash game lineup. Allen Lazard and banged up Green Bay pass catchers just torched this New Orleans secondary. This is a matchup we used to fear, but this defense is not what it used to be.
   
   UPDATE: Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore both OUT. Advantage Golladay.
   AETY Projection: 15.46 DK / 12.76 FD
   
6. Tyler Boyd ($6,100 DK / $6,000 FD) – Always in for rostering Tyler Boyd in NFL DFS Cash Games. The price hiked up a bit from last week when we smashed him into our GPP lineups, but the matchup is just as pristine this week against DJ Hayden on the inside of Jacksonville’s secondary.
   AETY Projection: 13.65 DK / 10.90 FD
   
7. Hunter Renfrow ($4,600 DK / $5,300 FD) – They literally have no one else healthy besides Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones. Renfrow is really only in play for DraftKings with the full-point PPR setup, but you all know how much I love to pick on Buffalo’s slot-corner, Taron Johnson.
   
   Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green, Zach Pascal, Preston Williams

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Best pass-catching tight-end in football. Play him if you can afford him.
   AETY Projection: 16.58 DK / 13.79 FD
   
2. Hunter Henry ($4,600 DK / $6,100 FD) – No idea why he’s priced under $5K. This one looks like a layup with the rapport Henry and Herbert have showed us thus far.
   AETY Projection: 12.59 DK / 10.07 FD
   
3. Logan Thomas ($3,500 DK / $4,900 FD) – Washington is going to be chasing points early and often in this game against Baltimore. Tight ends have had a lot of success against Baltimore this season and you know we’re likely to need salary relief this week. Logan is an excellent punt-play for NFL DFS Cash Games.
   AETY Projection: 10.07 DK / 7.97 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Cincinatti Bengals
5. Tampa Bay Bucs

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: DeShaun Watson
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Mike Davis
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: DK Metcalf
WR: Hunter Renfrow
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Darrell Henderson Jr.
DST: Bengals

Good luck to all!

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