NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown

It’s Adam Strangis and not Stix for the second straight week and we’re back to get you your cash picks! Last week was very solid as the misses were few and far between. I have to say that two of my favorite plays absolutely crushed my hopes last week in Aaron Jones and Corey Davis. Still, the vast majority of picks returned 3x and that’s what we’re after in NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown!

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 15, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, T.Y. Hilton and cheap Saints ALL project to be high in cash game ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE or FOUR of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK/ $8,900 FD) – We won’t spend much time here. Mahomes threw three picks last week and still put up 24 DK points. He’s in the late hammer game that is attracting all sorts of attention. Do we need to spend up this far? I don’t believe so with the backs we’re targeting but if you can get there, it’s Mahomes.
2. Lamar Jackson ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD) – Due to some depressed stats for most of the year, Jackson finds himself at a cheaper price than normal in a total smash spot. Jacksonville is 24th in DVOA against the run and 31st against the pass. Jackson has started running again, racking up over 220 rushing yards over the past two games. Baltimore absolutely needs this game against a week opponent and Lamar being Lamar is their best path to win and is probably my choice in cash this week.
3. Kyler Murray ($7,000 DK/$8,000 FD) – Another quarterback who has been sub-par lately, Kyler checks in as a massively cheap option with his rush attempts coming back. His shoulder really hindered him the past few weeks. There was a three game stretch where he ran a total of 15 times. That negates what makes him a truly special fantasy player. Last week, Kyler ran 13 times so an Eagles defense that is missing members of the secondary can be had in a big way.
4. Drew Brees ($5,900 DK/$7,500 FD) – Brees is a little better value on DK but too cheap on either site. The Saints are a playoff team with Super Bowl aspirations. I have faith he’s ready to go or the Saints wouldn’t rush him for a non-conference game that doesn’t mean an overwhelming amount in the leg run. Brees is still 10th in points per drop back on the year and will either have to put up 30 to keep up with KC or be chasing for a big part of the day.
5. Jalen Hurts ($5,900 DK/$6,900 FD) – There is small concern with any player like Hurts that game film will provide ways to exploit him to a bad game. However, I laid out the math in Game By Game. On DK, a combo of 50 rushing yards, 150 passing yards and a touchdown of any kind has you right in the 3x window. Even though the Cardinals defense is 9th in DVOA overall, New Orleans is higher and Hurts played well last week. I think it’s spending up or down this week as the mid-range all has some flaws.

Honorable Mention – Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Running Backs

1. Derrick Henry ($9,500 DK/$10,200 FD) – One of the absolute stone locks for me in cash, Henry is in line for a monster day. He’s slated for 22-25 rushing attempts or more against one of the worst rush defenses in football. Detroit is dead last in DVOA against the run and only five teams have allowed more rush yards to backs. Tennessee needs to keep winning and Henry has a shot at 2,000 rushing yards for the year. He checks far too many boxes to sweat any lack of receptions.
2. Alvin Kamara ($7,400 DK/$7,800 FD) – I loved Kamara before Brees was starting but now, the man is likely to be the most popular player on the slate. Not only does Brees love him, but receiver Michael Thomas is out. The spot to attack KC is with running backs, especially since they’ve allowed the third-most receiving yards to backs. Kamara is a massive bargain and every cash lineup needs to start with he and Henry to my eyes.
3. Jonathan Taylor ($7,200 DK/$7,400 FD) – This might be the back I’m least happy about potentially not playing. It’s not impossible, but we would have to go cheap at receiver. Taylor has cleared 15+ touches in his last three games, rolled up 331 rushing yards, 83 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The rookie is doing what we though he might at the start of the year. Hey, better late than never. Oh, he also gets the Texans who have surrendered the most rushing yards in football to backs. That’s the same defense that got gouged for over 100 rush yards by David Montgomery last week on just 11 carries.
4. Cam Akers ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Jets are a punchline, but the matchup by the stats isn’t the easiest. The Jets are eighth in DVOA against the run and that’s slightly concerning. However, it’s all about opportunity as the biggest favorite on the slate. The Rams should be able to handle this game easily and that should lead Sean McVay to run the football. As a team, they are seventh in attempts per game. Akers himself has had a long week to recover from his 50 carries over the past two games. He’s not my favorite option, but the workload and Vegas supports the play.
5. J.K. Dobbins ($5,900 DK/$5,900 FD) – I know that Gus Edwards scored more last week, but Dobbins went back to over 60% of the snaps last week and has 24 carries over the past two games. He gets the same rush defense that Lamar does, and has huge upside. When we get a double-digit carry back in the best rushing offense in football, we have to be interested under $6,000. The matchup is just the cherry on top and the Ravens seem to recognize who their best back is.
6. Leonard Fournette ($4,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – Am I doing cartwheels playing Fournette? No, for two reasons. One, I’m fat and can’t do a cartwheel so it’s a moot point. Secondly, Coach Bruce Arians lies like a rug. So when he says that Fournette will start if (and it’s increasingly likely) Ronald Jones is out, I don’t fully believe him. However, Fournette has played the pass catching back role and should get at least a dozen touches. At $4,500 that’s enough. In fairness, he has had a couple big games so if he makes it all work, I’m just going to deal with BA.

Honorable Mention – Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, J.D. McKissic, Salvon Ahmed (if Myles Gaskin is out)

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Wide Receiver

1. Tyreek Hill ($8,800 DK/$9,300 FD) – He’s the WR1 hooked up with the best quarterback in football. Do I need other reasons?
2. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DK/$8,600 FD) – If you spend up on any receiver not named Hill, it has to be Nuk this week. Not only is his quarterback operating at full capacity, but Hopkins is seeing targets at a top five rate in the NFL. He now gets a banged up Darius Slay on the other side, who shouldn’t scare anyone. That’s if Slay suits up. If not, the wheels are even further up for Hopkins. He could truly be a slate breaker his week.
3. Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300 DK/$6,900 FD) – We’ll have a couple high salary receivers in Honorable Mention, but if we spend up on backs we have to trim salary somewhere. Aiyuk fits the bill against the Cowboys secondary. He’s on fire, with at least 19 DK in his last five games and a total of 56 targets in that time span. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out, Aiyuk will have to carry the passing game and he rookie is up for it.
4. T.Y. Hilton ($5,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – He’s an easier fit on DK but I’m in love with T.Y. this week. Not only have he and Rivers been clicking, he historically owns the Texans. On top of that, Houston’s secondary has been a disaster since losing corner Bradley Roby to suspension. I know Hilton has been invisible for most of the season but he’s come alive at the exact right time.
5. Emmanuel Sanders/Tre’Quan Smith ($4,200 DK/$5,500 FD and $3,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – With Thomas being out, the next two Saints receivers step into the spotlight. Smith has actually been playing more snaps than Sanders the past two weeks, an interesting development. He has one more target than Sanders and while the quarterback changes, both receivers will be needed to fill the 43.6% air yards share and 28.1% target share that Thomas vacates. This game is one of the highest O/U’s on the slate and it’s far too easy to get exposure here.

Honorable Mention – DK Metcalf, Allen Robinson, any Tampa receiver, Marvin Jones, CeeDee Lamb

Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown: Tight End

1. Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – I mentioned it in the Gam By Game and we talked about it in Discord, but Kelce is actually still underpriced. Yes, he’s a tight end by position but you’re getting a discount on the receiver-like production he’s giving you. Metcalf is more expensive, yet Kelce has more PPR points. He’d be my main target from the Chiefs given the price deficiency if you can afford him.
2. Mark Andrews ($5,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – My only sort of issue is the amount of times Baltimore passes the ball. Jackson has only 34 attempts combined the past two weeks, but Andrews can still get it done. He put up 12.8 DK last week without a score and Jacksonville has allowed 10 touchdowns on the year to tight ends.
3. Jared Cook ($3,400 DK/$5,600 FD) – You can’t go full hog on Saints in cash, but Cook is going to help fill the Thomas void as well. Cook already leads the team in end zone targets and he’s third in red zone targets. With Thomas out, Cook has double-touchdown potential just like Mike Gesicki did last week against the Chiefs.
4. Cole Kmet ($3,000 DK/$5,100 FD) – Kmet has played over 70% of the snaps the past three weeks after the Bears bye week. Additionally, Kmet has seen three, seven and seven targets over this three games and the past two has at least four receptions. He’s just way too cheap for the growing role and he’s easy to fit in any build.

Honorable Mention – T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Dolphins
2. Colts
3. Seahawks
4. Patriots
5. 49ers
6. Cowboys

Sample Lineup

QB – Patrick Mahomes

RB – Derrick Henry

RB – Alvin Kamara

WR – Brandon Aiyuk

WR – T.Y. Hilton

WR – Tre’Quan Smith

TE – Cole Kmet

Flex – Leonard Fournette

D/ST – Cowboys

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Thanks for check out this Week 15 Cash Game Checkdown. Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!