NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown

For this week, Stix won’t be bringing you the Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown. I’m Adam Strangis and covering for Stix this week as he’s away. Don’t worry, we’ll still hit everything that Stix usually does and put you on the right path to green in Week 14! We have a very large slate, but it’s important to pare things down to make it manageable so let’s get to work.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Travis Kelce, David Montgomery, Corey Davis and J.D. McKissic ALL project to be high in cash game ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE or FOUR of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK/$8,900 FD) – Of course, Mahomes is expensive but he’s actually the QB3 in salary on FD. Mahomes has only had one game all season under 20 DK points and leads the league in passing yards with a 31:2 TD:INT ratio. He likely will not fit into my builds all that well but if you find yourself with the ability to play him, there’s no question about going that route.
2. Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK/$9100 FD) – Rodgers now has three touchdowns in nine of 12 games played and gets a cakewalk matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Packers are going to be popular this week in the highest O/U on the slate and seven points favorites. You really can’t go wrong with any of the main three from this offense, but I would prioritize the other two Green Bay skill players.
3. Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK/$8,300 FD) – I know that Herbert was terrible for fantasy but he’s not playing a Bill Belichick defense this week. The Atlanta Falcons are a pass funnel, actually in the top 10 in DVOA against the run. If they can mute that facet of the game, Herbert is likely in lone for 40+ attempts against the defense that’s given up the second-most passing yards and 24 touchdowns.
4. Philip Rivers ($5,900 DK/$7,000) – This might be my first week on the article but I’m pretty sure this would be the first week Rivers has made the cut. The Raiders are bottom 10 in DK points given up per game and 15th in DVOA against the pass. I pointed it out in Game by Game but Rivers has quietly hit at least 18 DK in six of the last seven games. He’s also up to 11th in attempts and when Sam Darnold can produce against your defense, I have faith in the veteran here.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Running Backs

1. Aaron Jones ($7,600 DK/$8,700 FD) – This is my personal building block and will be a member of my Core Four. We already know this spot possesses an insane ceiling for Jones since he went over 48 DK in the first meeting. We have attacked the Detroit run “defense” relentlessly all season long. I’m not about to stop in such a phenomenal spot and if he gets another 18 touches like last week, he should smash this price.
2. James Robinson ($7,500 DK/$8,000 FD) – Not only has Robinson been super consistent all season, he gets the TENNESSEE TITANS defense this week. They are slightly better against the run than pass with a 15th ranked DVOA against the run. However, we really shouldn’t care with his workload. He’s about the only back that touches the ball in the Jacksonville offense. An added bonus might be the pass catching from Mike Glennon. In their two games together, Robinson has six targets in each.
3. Austin Ekeler ($7,000 DK/$7,500 FD) – He might be a better play on DK but I’m having a hard time passing him on that site. In his two games back, he’s rushed the ball 22 times and had 25 targets. That’s incredible since they got their doors kicked in last week. Ekeler has the ability to rack up massive points here, especially if the run game is stymied. I wouldn’t be surprised if he approaches 100 yards receiving in this one.
4. David Montgomery ($6,500 DK/$6,600 FD) – This is likely the better value on FD but I wouldn’t argue on either site. Montgomery has had two excellent games back-to-back, which hasn’t happened very often in his career. The common factor was an incredible matchup. This week, he gets the Houston Texans who have *checks notes* given up the most rushing yards in football. The scrimmage yards are over 2,200 for the year and Monty has at least 16 touches in every game since Week 5.
5. Myles Gaskin ($5,600 DK/$6,000 FD) – I have scoreboard concerns in this one but he is looking to be a popular option. Gaskin came back from a knee injury and touched the ball 23 times last week, buying any workload concerns. It should be pointed out that it was a favorable script last week and the Chiefs may not present that opportunity. We just don’t get that style of workload that cheaply very often and we shouldn’t overlook it. Gaskin is out for Sunday.
6. J.D. McKissic ($4,900 DK/$5,300) – Stix is typically not a McKissic guy and I may get fired for this pick, but Antonio Gibson has been ruled out. McKissic played 75% of the snaps when Gibson left Monday very early. Now, the WFT did trail through a lot of that game but the score was never over a two possession game. I firmly believe McKissic will be on the better end of the split regardless of the score and he’s earned nearly a 19% target share. Check Down Alex Smith loves him and his floor is immense, especially on DK.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Wide Receiver

1. Davante Adams ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – Wildly expensive but justifiably so. Half of his games have been over 30 DK points this year, only one healthy game has finished under 18 DK and the Lions secondary is putrid. Adams owns over 33% of the target and air yards share from one of the best quarterbacks to lace ’em up. It’s hard to go wrong with him past the crimp in puts in the budget.
2. Keenan Allen ($7,700 DK/$8,500 FD) – Even with target hog Ekeler back in the lineup, that hasn’t stopped Allen from getting double-digit targets the past two weeks. Now he gets the Atlanta pass funnel and their secondary that has scuffled mightily all year. I will grant you they’ve played better under Coach Raheem Morris, but they also couldn’t stop the Michael Thomas/Taysom Hill combo. Herbert to Allen is a much more dangerous duo.
3. Mike Evans ($6,600 DK/$7,300 FD) – This game should shootout and while I can’t fault you for looking at the Vikings side for pass catchers, Evans stands out to me. Tom Brady loves him like no other in the red zone since Antonio Brown has showed up, with 10 targets. Nobody else on the team is over four. Evans is also the co-leader in raw targets even with AB. With such a high chance at a score against the Vikings secondary, Evans is safe fro cash in my eyes.
4. Robby Anderson/Curtis Samuel ($6,200/$5,200 DK and $6,500/$5,900 FD) – I’m mostly going to live in the mid-range for receiver this week and one of the Panther receivers is a must in all cash settings. D.J. Moore is inactive this week and that means 40.3% of the air yard share and 22.9% of the target share just opened up. With Christian McCaffrey all but out, Anderson and Samuel are going to be serious focal points of the passing offense. I may default to Samuel since he’s cheaper but you have to go with one.
5. Corey Davis ($5,700 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m stealing this from Ghost, but Davis is one of the biggest locks of the slate for both of us. I will have him in cash, a Titans stack, solo in GPP….any format this week but cash especially. Davis has almost matched A.J. Brown in any receiving metric you can think of and will get the lesser of the Jacksonville coverage. He is FAR too cheap on DK especially.
6. Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400 DK/$6,700 FD) – It’s not the easiest matchup but Aiyuk has really found a groove in his past four games played. He’s been targeted seven, 10, 14 and nine times. The nine targets came with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup and Aiyuk has hit at least 19 DK in his past four games. The rookie is too cheap for a 21.1% target share and a 31.5% share of the air yards.
7. Breshad Perriman ($3,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – I was ready to swear off Jets totally but now, we may not have a choice but to consider Perriman. Denzel Mims is out and Jamison Crowder seems highly questionable to play. If Perriman is the only receiver left standing, he should be able to pay off this small salary. New York should trail most of this game.
8. Michael Gallup ($3,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – My personal favorite cheap receiver and as low as I’m dipping in cash. Gallup and Andy Dalton have seen their chemistry grow with more playing time. His targets have increased every game over the last three weeks, as have his results. Scoring 21.6 DK again might be a lot to ask, but at this salary you only need about 12 to make it work for cash. Something like a 5/70 works just fine, and a score would be gravy.

*Update* I think we need to have a quick discussion on what a punt play is. There’s seemingly a lot of random players in Discord of players that haven’t made any of our content. The theory is you play a punt and stud together to afford the stud. The problem is it doesn’t help you if your punt doesn’t have a path to production. I think we’re chasing too many thin plays. One example (and it’s not to single anyone out by any stretch) this week was Mecole Hardman. He’s played 30% and 33% of the snaps with Sammy Watkins back. Hardman is attached to Patrick Mahomes, yes. However, the only route for success is a random long touchdown that nobody can predict. He’s the fourth-string receiver and everyone is healthy in the offense.

Contrast that with guys like Perriman and Gallup. The latter has an 88% snap rate and a 16.2% target share, while Perriman has 86% of snaps and 17.6% of the target share. In Perriman’s case, Crowder and Mims being out represent 110 targets on the season that are missing. That’s why a player like Braxton Berrios could work as a punt. He’s potentially walking into a big role and he’s minimum-priced. All I’m getting after here is map out why the player can succeed and hit 3-4x in your lineup. Otherwise, you’re rolling into a slate with a potentially empty spot in your lineup.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Sterling Shepard (if Daniel Jones plays)

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Tight End

1. Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK/$8,200 FD) – There’s nowhere else to start if you’re going to the top shelf. Kelce has scored 241 PPR points in regular PPR scoring. That would be good for the WR3 and is about 13 more than Metcalf. Do I need to say more?
2. T.J. Hockenson ($5,000 DK/$6,000FD) – The ceiling hasn’t been there at all for Hockenson but the floor certainly has. He only has one game under nine DK points and he was on the injury report that week. Maybe this is finally the week big things happen because teammate Marvin Jones has to deal with a top-flight corner in Jaire Alexander. Either way, Hockenson is seemingly good for 10-15 DK every single week.
3. Dalton Schultz ($3,500 DK/$5,100 FD) – No team has surrendered more yards to the tight end than the Bengals at 822. Schultz isn’t a target magnet in this offense, but he gets 4-6 targets about every time out. He can’t ask for much of a better matchup and if you spend down, you could do a lot worse.
4. Tyler Eifert ($3,100 DK/$4,700 FD) – Talking about players like Eifert is why it’s appealing to just play Kelce. Eifert has seen his work increase with Mike Glennon under center, recording 10 targets in the last two games and going over 10 DK in both. It’s not much to hold on to but you only need those 10 DK to make it worth the punt.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Noah Fant

Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown: Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Saints
2. Seahawks
3. Washington
4. Panthers
5. Cardinals
6. Eagles
7. Jets

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

Thanks for check out this Week 14 Cash Game Checkdown. Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!