NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown

A hit and miss Week 12 for our NFL DFS Cash Games. If you followed the article and mixed in Jarvis Landry, you cashed. If you ate all of the chalk, you likely didn’t. I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid, yet somewhat ugly Week 13 slate.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• CHALK REPORT: Devontae Booker, James Robinson, David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler, and Brandin Cooks ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST TWO or THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – He’s quite expensive on both outlets, but hard to find a saver quarterback on this slate than Russell Wilson (maybe Kyler, but we are assuming Kyler Murray isn’t 100% healthy yet). The Giants pass defense has been very poor all season long ranking 25th in run defense DVOA.
   
   Russ and a healthy receiving core will always be in play for cash games.
   
2. Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves Aaron Rodgers this week… projecting for over 280 pass yards and almost 3 passing touchdowns. We have to respect Darius Slay and arguably the #1 pass rush in the NFL, but I trust the model and Matt LaFleur’s unique offense to get the job done on Sunday.
   
3. Cam Newton ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. The Chargers’ defense is bad and absolutely be carved up in all facets of the game. With the rushing floor of Cam Newton being bumped up a bit more with Rex Burkhead now on IR, I’ll roll the dice on Cam Newton and his legs against the 31st ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA) at this low of a price-tag.
   
4. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Your salary saving punt of the week, Mitch Trubisky. It’s not saying much, but Trubisky has absolutely owned the Detroit Lions throughout his brief career (106 passer rating over 6 games). This Lions’ team is in shambles and bleeds points to opposing quarterbacks (and receivers, and running backs… pretty much everyone, lol).
   
   As long as Allen Robinson (knee) is healthy, Trubisky and the Bears will put up serviceable numbers for your cash game builds.
   
   Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, DeShaun Watson, Taysom Hill, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

1. Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $10,500 FD) – Crazy expensive yet again and yes, Dalvin was disappointing last week but it likely didn’t matter for your cash game build as 85% of the field rostered him. He’s clearly the top-dog running back on this slate against one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL.
   
   If the ankle issues scare you, Derrick Henry is not a bad replacement in your cash game lineup.
   
2. James Robinson ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – Absolutely auto-play on FanDuel and likely DraftKings as well (he’s the most popular player on this slate). The Vikings’ run defense isn’t awful (4.3 yards per attempt to opposing running backs) but it’s also nothing to write home about. James Robinson played > 95% of the Jaguars snaps last week… that’s outrageous usage.
   
3. Chris Carson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD) – As of now, Chris Carson is my favorite play on all of the slate (outside of maybe Miles Sanders, but I don’t think we can use him in cash). If you’re not using a share of the Seattle’s passing game in your cash game build, use Chris Carson. They have a 29-point implied team total against a bottom 10 defense in the NFL. You’re going to want a piece of this offense someway, somehow.
   
4. David Montgomery ($5,500 DK / $6,200 FD) & Devontae Booker ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD) – Take at least one of the two “freesquare” value plays in your cash game lineup this week. I will likely be using both of them to afford higher end pass-catchers.
   
5. Myles Gaskin ($5,900 DK) – He’s been ruled active. Everyone else for Miami is out. Wheels up, Gaskin.
   
   Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb

Wide Receivers

1. Brandin Cooks ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – With Will Fuller out for the foreseeable future, load up Brandin Cooks in your cash games with the rest of the DFS community. I personally think he’s an easy fade in GPPs, but in NFL DFS Cash Games, you have to fire him up.
   
2. Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Do we really need to say anything about the best fantasy receiver in the game?
   
3. DK Metcalf ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD) – Much more affordable on FanDuel but certainly in play in all formats in Week 13. I don’t care about a James Bradberry shadow, the air yards, target share, and most importantly, the skill of DK Metcalf are likely second to none. Metcalf is becoming an absolute star before our eyes and is impossible to cover. The pace of this game is likely to be very ugly and sluggish, so that’s why I prefer just using Carson.
   
4. Minnesota Vikings – Honestly, Jacksonville’s secondary is shockingly bad. We called the monster Jarvis Landry outing last week and should go right back to the well here with either Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson. I prefer Jefferson only because he’s cheaper.
   
5. Robert Woods ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – One of my favorite games to attack will be the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The price on woods is way too low here and I highly doubt he’ll see shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson. The way McVay schemes Woods open is enough for me to buy in at this price point (regardless of the opposition’s game plan).
   
6. Michael Pittman ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Pittman is one of my favorite plays on this slate. Bradley Roby is out for Houston due to the PEDs with his buddy, Will Fuller… leaving Vernon Hargreaves as the top corner in the Houston secondary… that is a massive advantage to Pittman. Lock him in at this price!
   
   The Value Wideouts:
   
7. Denzel Mims ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD) – Mims has been coming on rather strong lately and is clearly the most talented player in this New York offense (that isn’t saying much). The AETY Model loves his most recent air yards share and is projecting him for over a 21% total target share in Week 13. At this low of a price-point, that projected target share is incredibly rare.
   
8. Darnell Mooney ($3,400 DK / $5,100 FD) – Likely not in play for cash unless you can stomach a Bears’ stack in your cash game lineup. Having said that, Mooney is on the field virtually as much as any wideout in the NFL and ranks 10th in my adjusted expected average depth of target ranking… in the whole league (not to mention the highest air yard percentage on this Chicago team). This dude is going to explode one of these weeks and you need to buy in soon.
   
   I prefer Mooney in GPPs, but at this price, his floor is plenty high in cash games with a day full of Amani Oruwariye in coverage.
   
9. Keke Coutee ($3,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – I’m not into Coutee at all, but with Cobb and Fuller gone, he’s a value play, I guess. Just play Cooks in cash instead.
   
   Honorable Mention: Mohammed Sanu, DJ Chark, Tyler Lockett

Tight Ends

1. Darren Waller ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – No Kelce on this slate so load up Waller as your top-tier tight end this week. I don’t love the expected gamescript here, but I do believe the Jets can keep it close enough to ensure Waller stays quite active in the passing game against Greg Williams’ swiss-cheese zone defense.
   
2. Anthony Firkser ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD) – Freesquare of the week with Jonnu Smith out. His ownership projection is now over 25%. I get it, we don’t need much at this price point. This is a good game to invest in to say the least.
   
3. Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – We’ve been preaching Evan Engram all season long and won’t stop now. It’s been a blessing to watch him go to work each week healthy which we’ve never seen before. I don’t what to expect from Engram with Colt McCoy under center, but he will target Engram enough to warrant a cash game play, while playing catch up against Seattle.
   
   Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Jordan Akins, Robert Tonyan, Kyle Rudolph

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Miami Dolphins
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Chicago Bears
6. Detroit Lions
7. New York Jets