NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown

Another great week for Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 10, which is a bit of a strange slate to say the least.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
• I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
• Chalk Report: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Mike Davis (lock in cash), Duke Johnson, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Kyler Murray ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Kyler Murray at this point in the season? No. No we do not. You know what you’re getting out of Kyler Murray and 15% or more of the field is going to roster him against Buffalo and their mediocre defense.
   
2. Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – On the other side of Kyler Murray is Mr. Josh Allen. Thank the lord we decided he was our QB1 last week and I have no problem if you go back to the well with Allen on the road as a slight underdog in a 56-point total. This game is going to be fun to watch and offer a lot of fireworks from a fantasy standpoint.
   
   Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

1. Mike Davis ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Just use him. McCaffrey is out and Davis is clearly mis-priced. He should be 100% owned in cash games and his output doesn’t matter. It’s not an ideal matchup against the 3rd best run defense in the league, but I find it nearly impossible for him not to get to 13+ fantasy points. Take the savings and run on the Davis freesquare.
   
2. Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – The lead running back on the team with the highest Adjusted Expected Team Total, at home, against the worst overall defense in the NFL (32nd in overall defense DVOA). My only concern with Jones is the return of Jamaal Williams who is certainly going to get plenty of snaps out of this Green Bay backfield (especially if this game gets out of hand).
   
3. Duke Johnson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another freesquare with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. I little bit better of a matchup than Mike Davis against Tampa Bay, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings (very affordable on FanDuel). If you want to use two punt running backs and pay up at QB/WR/TE, your path to victory in cash would be using Davis and Johnson together.
   
   I’m not sure that’s the way I want my lineup to look with Johnson being quite inefficient via the run, but the pass catching ability should alleviate any concerns we have about Johnson’s floor for cash games.
   
   Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Giovani Bernard, Kalen Ballage, James Robinson

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Davante Adams against the absolute worst pass defense in the the NFL. Check mate. Personally, I am only going to play one Packer (Jones or Adams). Right now, I’m leaning Adams.
   
2. Stefon Diggs ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) – I love the value here on FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings as well… Especially when 25% of the field (if not more) is going to roster Diggs in NFL DFS cash games. Whether or not Patrick Peterson shadows should not deter you from rostering the best route runner in the NFL who owns a ~30% target share.
   
3. Michael Thomas ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – Just way too cheap for Michael Thomas against a completely depleted, struggling secondary in San Francisco. Thomas led the team in targets last week and will start to get back to a similar workload he had in 2019 (certainly not as high of a floor he had last year, but it’s still incredibly high).
   
4. Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800) – Is there anyone in the NFL that’s been more consistent than Keenan Allen? No. No, there isn’t. Remember just a few weeks ago when were so high on Cooper Kupp in this same matchup against Miami’s slot cornerback, Nik Needham? Yea, let’s ride. Keenan is as safe as ever to get to 2.5x value in you NFL DFS Cash Games.
   
5. Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – In the first game without Odell Beckham we saw Jarvis rack up 11 targets (in that gale-force wind game against Las Vegas). I’m always going to be interested in sure-handed wide receivers with a 30% target share. Pair all of that with a matchup against Houston’s Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves and you’re going to be happy with the result.
   
   Hell, Jake Luton and the Jaguars’ receiving core went nuts last week…
   
6. Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – Reynolds comes into the week grading out as the #1 NFL DFS value in the AETY Model for wide receivers. We all know how much of a pass funnel defense Seattle is as team’s torch them on a weekly basis. Reynolds is locked in for a minimum of 75% of the Rams’ offensive snaps assuming this game goes up-paced like Vegas and the pre-match 56 point total support.
   
   I’d certainly prefer Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp here, but at this price, I’ll always sign off on cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.
   
   Honorable Mention: Chris Conley, Tyler Lockett, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet, but here are my top options on the slate.

1. Darren Waller ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
   
2. Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
   
3. Dallas Goedert ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD)
   
4. TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
   
5. Greg Olsen ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Reynolds
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
DST: Detroit Lions