NFL DFS – Stick’s Picks for Wild Card Weekend

It’s sad to say that the NFL Regular Season has come to close. The Win Daily Team absolutely crushed 2019 NFL DFS… Whether it was the Cash Game Checkdown or our top GPP picks each week, Win Daily had you covered. Having said that, we are still here to help you end your NFL DFS season on a high note.

There are four games on the main slate this weekend, but split up into two days. On such a small slate, I don’t think I’ll be playing any cash games this weekend. Everything on my end will be meant for GPPs. Let’s get to it!

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Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for the NFL DFS Wild Card slate . Please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• There is not a whole lot of obviously “value” on the slate. It looks like Josh Perkins is going to be the chalky cheap guy this week… I have no problem pivoting to Dawson Knox at that same price point if you’re looking to get different, but Perkins is not a bad play by any means. Sounds like Ertz is playing. I’ll probably avoid Perkins.
• The total in the Vikings @ Saints game currently sits at 50 points… at least five points higher than any other game on this slate. This is the game I’ll probably invest in the most.
• If you’re not going to play Michael Thomas, be sure to get some Saints’ exposure to offset Michael Thomas inevitably going for 25+ DraftKings’ points. My favorite way to do that is pairing Drew Brees with Jared Cook. You still have some Michael Thomas exposure if you roster Brees, so it’s not like you’re full fading Thomas.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS QB

• Russell Wilson ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Wilson is expensive this week, but for good reason. Wilson shot up my rankings earlier today when I finished my projections. The Eagles’ secondary is a mess and Seattle’s running game is depleted with injury. Wilson is going to have to get this done himself with his arm and legs and should lead the slate in scoring. Use him!
  
• Josh Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Allen is on top of my GPP QB player pool this weekend on both sites. I don’t expect him to do a whole lot in the passing game, but I have his rushing floor projected for 55 yards. If he get’s in the end-zone (which he’s done eight times this season), I expect him to be the second highest scoring QB on the slate.
  
  Houston’s defense as a whole has struggled all season long and ended the regular season ranked 26th in pass DVOA. The Texans will be getting J.J. Watt back for this game, but I still don’t think their pass rush will improve a whole lot from what we’ve seen the last few weeks. If Allen comes into this weekend’s slate at ~10% ownership, he’s a player I’ll be heavily invested in.
  
• Carson Wentz ($6,200 DK / $7,900 FD) – Over the past seven games, Wentz has an absurd average of 44 pass attempts. There is no other QB on this slate that has had anywhere near that type of volume. I’m not a fan of Wentz’ receivers, but on DraftKings specifically, this price is too low to avoid.
  
  Like Allen, no one seems to be on Wentz this weekend. Seattle should have no problem scoring on this Philadelphia secondary, so keep this one simple. If you’re rostering the player most likely to lead the slate in pass attempts, you’re setting yourself up for success.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS RB

• Miles Sanders ($6,200 DK / $7,400) – Sanders is apparently a full go for Sunday’s game against Seattle. He is by far their most explosive player and should go into this slate decently under-owned due to recent injury concerns. Seattle is extremely beatable via the run and this makes Sanders my number one value play at the running back position on Sunday.
  
• Devin Singletary ($6,000 DK / $6,200 FD) – Easily the most underpriced player on both sites. Singletary is clearly the RB1 for a run-first team in Buffalo (playing 70% or more of the offensive snaps in every game since Week 10). Houston’s defense is suspect in all areas… load up Singletary.

Stick’s Picks – NFL DFS WR

• Adam Thielen ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD) – Thielen is probably my favorite play on the slate this week until further notice. Assuming Marshon Lattimore shadows Stefon Diggs (which is not 100% certain), Thielen is going to see a lot of P.J. Williams, Eli Apple, and Janoris Jenkins… I like that.
  
  New Orleans is an eight point favorite at home and should have no issues scoring points at will on this Vikings’ defense. If this gamescript sets up the way I think it will, the Vikings’ are going to have to abandon their running game early and start to chuck the ball around while playing catch-up. I have Thielen projected for eight catches, 110 yards, and a touchdown, which would put him at 28.1 DK points (right around 4.5x value).
  
  The touchdown is probably a bit much on the projection, but on a four game slate, I’ll take my chances with Adam Thielen in what should be a very busy day for the Vikings’ wide-outs.
  
• Tyler Lockett ($7,200 DK / 7,300 FD) – Over $2K less than Michael Thomas on DraftKings… sign me up for Tyler Lockett. Lockett is 100% healthy and going to be heavily involved in the Seattle offense as their running back health is absolutely depleted. To keep this short and sweet, Lockett is going to shred this Philadelphia secondary (mainly Avonte Maddox).
  
• John Brown ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – John Brown is always two plays away from breaking the slate. In a GPP format, there’s plenty of reasons to love John Brown (one being his price). I touched earlier on Houston’s struggles against the pass and John Brown will be in a match-up he can produce in. If Houston can find a way to get an early lead and force Buffalo to play up-tempo a bit, John Brown is in for a big day against Johnathan Joseph.
  
  Brown’s ceiling is probably the highest on this slate. Take advantage of that.
  
• Kenny Stills ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – It’s sounding like Will Fuller is going to be a game-time decision. Whether or not Fuller misses this game, I am going to have a lot of interest in Kenny Stills. We all know about Tredavious White’s ability to shutdown opposing top wide-outs… I’m not interested in paying up for DeAndre Hopkins (hopefully that doesn’t kill me).
  
  We have to take a stand in a four game slate, we simply cannot play everyone. Stills is coming off of a nine-target game and has been playing his best football over the last month. With White breathing down Hopkins’ neck all game on Saturday, look for Stills to get involved early and have his way with Bills’ corners, Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace. He’ll be in my main lineup.

Stick’s Picks – TE

• Jared Cook ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Jared Cook is only on my DraftKings’ player pool ($6,500 on FD seems like a bit much). If you’re building a lineup that doesn’t include Michael Thomas, I really like Jared Cook as a pivot option. Just pray the red-zone targets go Jared Cook’s way.
  
• Dawson Knox ($2,900 DK / $4,800 FD) – Knox is going to be virtually un-owned this week in NFL DFS. It makes a lot of sense as to why – he’s only topped five targets once this season. If you need salary relief and don’t want to eat Josh Perkins’ chalk, Knox is going to be my pivot against a Houston defense that has given up over 20 DK points per game to opposing tight ends in their last four games.
  
  Using Knox is 100% risky though, please be aware of that.