Dave Gloeckner 
We had a nice report card in Week 4 as we pumped out 4 of the top 6 RB’s last week. The best plays were Ekeler, Dameon Pierce and Jamaal Williams and the key in those games was attacking bad rushing defenses. We hit on some other plays as well as Christian McCaffrey showed up with a solid week and was only drafted in 1.44% of lineups.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). I usually give you a core 4 and this week that is in Tier 2.
As for my strategy this week, my Tier 1 Running Backs is at a season low of 2 players. While I’ll still look to use a Tier 1 RB in some lineups, the primary ratio of lineups will have combinations from Tier 2 and Tier 3 as I see a ton of value below the $7K line this week (Draftkings).
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
NICK CHUBB $8000 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
Chubb is my favorite RB on the board this week and believe he is worth the price. Chubb is averaging almost 6 ypc and over 100 yards per game. He has 3 games with over 100 yards rushing this season and now he gets to face a defense that is ranked 30th against RB’s. The Chargers are allowing 110 yards per game rushing and are 18th in rushing defense DVOA. They allowed an average of 26.3 fantasy points to Dameon Pierce and James Robinson the past two weeks and now they get to face the NFL’s leading rusher. Count me in.
DALVIN COOK $7300 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Dalvin Cook has not paid off for fantasy owners yet this season. He is once again battling an injury, in this case a shoulder injury. But he’s still seeing volume even when the running game isn’t there as witnessed last week versus NO (20 carries, 76 yards, long of 14). Which is good news for this week as he faces the Bears who are allowing a league high of 183 yards per game on the ground. Chicago has allowed a 100 yard game to an RB in 3 straight games (Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce, and Saquon Barkley). So with the amount of volume that Cook is still seeing despite the low YPC, and the fact the Bears are dreadful against the run, this becomes an ideal spot to roster Cook.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
LEONARD FOURNETTE $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Fournette only had 3 carries versus Kansas City but he excelled in the passing game by hauling in 7 catches and 1 TD. The game plan will change this week as the Bucs face the Falcons who allow 126 yards per game on the ground. Last year, Fournette averaged 84 scrimmage yards per game against the Falcons and had 11 catches. So I see a similar game plan from Tampa as they had in 2021, attack through the air early and end the game on the ground. With that in mind, we should see 50+ yards rushing and 3+ catches from Fournette which puts him at a floor of 10 fantasy points but a ceiling much higher.
JAMAAL WILLIAMS $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
De’Andre Swift is trending towards being ruled out again this week. Especially because the Lions have a bye in Week 6. If that happens, Williams will be in for another big week. New England is 5th best against RB’s this year. But that doesn’t tell the entire story. They are 26th in rushing yards allowed with 135.8 per game. And they are 31st in rushing defense DVOA. The Packers running duo of Jones and Dillon ran for 183 yards on 33 carries last week. I think there is value in Williams here and I would not be scared of the false rating that New England is carrying on DFS sites. The real numbers show this is a bad rush defense.
JAMES ROBINSON $6300 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
The Jags RB has one of the best matchups on the slate this week. The Houston Texans are 32nd against RB’s. And they allow the second most rushing yards per game at 172 ypg. Robinson had a disappointing week last week in Philly but a lot of that was because of the score. Jacksonville jumped out early and HC Doug Pederson attacked with a short passing game. But once they got down, they pretty much abandoned the run. Robinson had 6 rushing attempts in the 1st quarter but only 2 the rest of the game.
So don’t worry about that as the Jags shouldn’t end up in a similar game situation as last week. This will be more like their game against the Colts and Chargers where they averaged 36.5 carries per game. And Robinson had 164 yards on 50 carries and 2 TD’s in those two games.
DAMEON PIERCE $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Dameon Pierce is finally getting the salary adjustment that should have come last week. He has sat in Tier 3 over the first 4 weeks and outperformed his salary since Week 1. He gets a decent matchup this week against Jacksonville. The Jags shut down Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler but then allowed 210 rushing yards to the Eagles last week. I do think Pierce will have some difficulties finding consistent yards but the good news is he’s a home run hitter. Last week he was held to 3.5 yards per carry until he ripped off a 75 yards TD run. And he’s also featured in the pass game as he caught 6 balls last week. Whether the Texans are up or down, Pierce is a focal point in their offense and is still a great play at this price point.
DEVIN SINGLETARY $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Devin Singletary is not having the greatest year on the ground as he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in 4 games. That would be a career low as Singletary has averaged above 4.4 yards per carry in each of his previous 3 seasons. However, he is making up for that in the pass game as he has 13 receptions over the past 2 games and 17 total on the season. And what’s more important is that he is the clear RB1 option is Buffalo as he has gained 69% of the snap counts this season (Moss = 20% and Cook = 12%).
This week we have the largest spread on the board with Buffalo a 15 point favorite versus Pittsburgh. So if the game goes in one direction, there is potential for Singletary to see his biggest usage this week. And for those reasons, I like him against the Steelers and think he’s in line for a 2-3x value performance.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
KHALIL HERBERT $5900 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel
Herbert was a favorite play by many last week as his ownership value was at 37.3% which was the highest of all RB’s. And he returned a lukewarm outing by scoring just 11.1 DK points. A lot of his hype was due to his performance versus a bad rushing defense in the Houston Texans. But the Giants are much tougher against the run, ranking 21st in rushing DVOA, and they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. So the underwhelming performance wasn’t too surprising. This week he gets a much better matchup in the Minnesota Vikings who are 27th in rushing DVOA and 23rd in rushing yards allowed. So if Montgomery is out once again this spot will be ideal for Herbert to reinspire owners and put up a solid week.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $5500 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Stevenson is in a shared role with teammate Damien Harris. But Stevenson has received 34 touches to Harris’s 32 in the past 2 weeks. And he’s more prevalent in the pass game averaging 4 catches over the past 2 games. Rhamondre also averages more per carry (4.9 versus 4.6 for Harris). But this isn’t really about the two RB’s because I think both could have big games. This is more about the Lions D who allows a league high 5.6 YPC and has allowed 10 rushing TD’s in 4 games. So I’ll take the RB with a little more upside and $100 less than his partner in the backfield.
RAHEEM MOSTERT $5000 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
It’s pretty clear now that Mostert is the lead running back in Miami. He has gained 57% of the snaps to Edmonds’ 46%. And he’s doubled Edmonds’ carries over the past 3 weeks (34 to 16). The production is clear too as Mostert has almost 1 more ypc than Chase Edmonds. What’s also in Mostert’s favor is the fact that Teddy Bridgewater has taken over at QB. The game plan will be much more conservative and I think Mostert will be the beneficiary of that. The Jets rank 15th against RB’s this year but the one game where they faced a top RB, Nick Chubb went for 87 yards and 3 TD’s good for 32.3 DK points that day.
BONUS PICKS
I already listed my 10 favorites but I want to give you a bonus to consider. I like whoever is starting for New Orleans. If ALVIN KAMARA ($6600 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) plays against the Seahawks then he’s a smash play at this price. If he’s listed as inactive I am very much interested in LATAVIUS MURRAY ($4600). Murray looked like a better runner than Mark Ingram last week against the Vikings and his stats proved it. He ended up with more carries (11 vs 10) and yards (57 vs 30) as well as 1 TD. This was surprising for someone who was just signed but he took advantage of his opportunities.
And the main reason to like the Saints running game is the Seahawks are just that bad against the run. They rank 29th in the NFL allowing 154 yards per game on the ground. And they are allowing the second most points per game at 28.4.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.
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