Dave Gloeckner 
We hit on some of the better RB’s in Week 3 as we identified 4 of the overall top 10 runners. Our best plays were Derek Henry, James Robinson and Dameon Peirce. But we continue to see value RB’s take the top of the leaderboard as Herbert, Patterson Jamal Williams, Devin Singletary and Rhamondre Stevenson all scored over 20 points while being under $6K on Draftkings. That will eventually change but it is something we are keeping an eye on and trying to see trends.
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As for my strategy this week, I will look to roster a Tier 1 RB in about 80% of my rosters this week. I will use combinations of Tier 2 and Tier 3 RB’s in around 20% of my lineups. I think we’re going to see a big week, similar to Week 1, out of some of the higher priced RB’s this week.
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
JONATHAN TAYLOR $8800 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
The Matt Ryan effect seems to be hampering Jonathan Taylor’s production. The fact that Ryan is immobile and lacks arm strength (at this age), teams are able to pack the box. Since the opening week, when he faced a horrific run defense in Houston, Taylor has just 125 yards on 30 carries and is averaging only 9.7 DK points per game. This week he gets to see a familiar foe in the Tennessee Titans. Last year he faced the Titans twice and had 26 carries and 134 yards and 1 TD.
However, Tennessee is 29th in yards allowed rushing this season at 145 yards per game. They’ve also allowed the 23rd most points to RB’s including Saquon’s big game in week 1. This might be the lowest salary we see for Taylor all year and I’m willing to spend up this week on someone who is guaranteed 20+ touches and facing a bottom of the league rushing defense.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $8700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
CMac has been held out of practice the last two days because of a thigh injury. This is likely something that we’ll just have to deal with every week when assessing McCaffrey. However, if healthy this looks like a very promising spot for the Panthers RB as he faces the Cardinals who are 31st in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals also play with pace s they are 2nd in the NFL with 74 plays per game. Contrast that and we have the Panthers at 31st in the league at 54.3 plays per game. Most of that has been their opponents as well as their own inefficiencies. But I see that changing this week because of the weak Cardinals defense and their desire to play fast. Add in the fact that McCaffrey has played 84% of Carolina’s snaps this year and you have a potential smash play.
AUSTIN EKELER $7700 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel
Is it finally a week for the Chargers running game to show up? They face the Houston Texans who have allowed a league leading 202.3 yards per game on the ground. Houston is coming off a week 3 performance where they allowed 237 yards rushing to the Bears. With Herbert dealing with rib cartilage issues, the Chargers should be focused on the ground game which gives Ekeler an added boost.
SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8100 FanDuel
Barkley is about the only interesting part of the Giants as he has ripped off at least one explosive play in each game so far. The Giants failed to get in the redzone on MNF versus the Cowboys but Barkley still thrived with 126 total yards and a touchdown. This week he faces the Bears who are 22nd in defensive rushing DVOA and 31st in rushing yards allowed with 157 yards/game. Feed the beast and let’s watch Barkley put up another productive game.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
NAJEE HARRIS $6700 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Najee Harris is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this year. But he’s added 10 receptions and 2 TD’s which has helped add value to his game. The good news for Harris this week is that he plays the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA in the New York Jets. While the Jets have been decent against the run this year that is mainly because teams have carved them up through the air. I believe Harris will be able to be effective in the run game and see 5+ targets making him a very good play this week.
JAMES ROBINSON $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
The Jags RB put up a huge game last week by rushing for over 100 yards and scoring a TD for the third straight week. The Eagles are 25th in rushing defense DVOA and 17th in yards allowed on the ground. After seeing the Eagles sack Carson Wentz 9 times last week, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson will look to be more balanced and keep the defensive line from pinning their ears back. Robinson should be a factor again this week and has solid value versus and Eagles team that has been susceptible to the run so far this season. He is a much better play on DK and a fringe play on FanDuel due to his salary.
JAMAL WILLIAMS $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
De’Andre Swift is trending towards being ruled out this week. If that happens, Williams will be an auto play for most and will see ownership in the 30% range. But that’s fine as he does have a great matchup versus the Seahawks who are tied for 31st in rushing yards allowed this season. Seattle allowed 179 rushing yards to Atlanta last week including 141 to Cordarrelle Patterson. Williams is in a prime position to put up a similar effort especially if he becomes the primary ball carrier this week.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
AJ DILLON $6000 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel
AJ Dillon shares the backfield duties with Aaron Jones. But it’s close to a 50/50 split as their snap percentage and touches are:
- Aaron Jones: 60.7% snap count / 32 carries / 8 receptions
- AJ Dillon: 54% snap count / 40 carries / 8 receptions
I see a situation that is evenly split if not more weighted to Dillon. This week the Packers face the Patriots who are 29th in rushing defense DVOA. New England is coming off a game where they allowed 188 yards on the ground to Baltimore. And with this being the largest spread on the board this week, there is potential for it to be a ground game for the Packers in the 2nd half. So I’ll take the $1500 discount that Dillon has to Jones as I think this will be a breakout week for the 3rd year back out of Boston College.
DAMEON PIERCE $5600 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
The Texans rookie RB has seen his carries increase gradually each week as he hit a season high with 20 carries last week against Chicago. He has taken over the workload for Houston and is the clear bell cow for the Texans. This week Pierce faces the Chargers who just allowed over 100 yards on the ground to James Robinson. I think Pierce will continue to produce and have another big week against the Chargers. This is a great value spot to pay less than $6000 for an RB that is expected to get 20+ touches.
BONUS PICKS
I do like KHALIL HERBERT ($5700 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) against the Giants if David Montgomery is ruled out. Herbert had a great game last week once Montgomery went down as he ran for a career high 157 yards against the Texans. The Giants have the 28th ranked rushing defense according to DVOA which provides added value to Herbert if he is the primary ball carrier this week.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.
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