Dave Gloeckner 
We had another solid week with the Running Back Report Card in Week 8. Our number one play was the number one play last week in Tony Pollard and he paid off with 3 touchdowns versus the Bears. We also had shares of Foreman, Kamara, and Henry which put us in prime position to cash in GPP’s.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
My strategy this week is to employ 3 RB’s in most of my lineups as I think there is better value at the top of the WR board. I’ll look to take a Tier 1 RB as I love several of the backs in that tier. I’ll then try to balance it with 2 more from a mix of Tier’s 2 and 3. I will not try to stack two from Tier 1.
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
AUSTIN EKELER $8800 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel
Ekeler and the Chargers had a bye in Week 8 which was a good thing. That’s because the Chargers RB was coming off a stretch in which he caught 22 balls in 2 games and had 45 touches. What’s more impressive is if we go back 4 weeks, Ekeler has averaged 33.8 DK points per game as the Chargers have put a premium on getting Ekeler the ball. And this week, he has two advantages going his way. First is the Atlanta Falcons as they rank 31st in defensive DVOA (26th in rushing DVOA). Last week they allowed 118 yards rushing and 3 TD’s to D’Onta Foreman. The next piece of the puzzle playing in Ekeler’s favor is that the Chargers are without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams meaning they will make Ekeler a big part of their gameplan once again this week. SMASH this play.
AARON JONES $7400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
Aaron Jones was picked in the top 12 of many season long fantasy leagues and for the most part he’s been a disappointment. However, his last 2 weeks have popped and he’s put 233 total yards and 2 TD’s. This week he gets the dream matchup of facing the Lions who are the worst defense in the league. Detroit is 31st in defensive DVOA, 30th in defensive rushing DVOA and 30th in yards allowed per game rushing (154.9). Even better news is that Jones has 71% of the RB snap counts the past 2 weeks. It’s his backfield and unless Packers HC changes his gameplan, Jones will be the beneficiary of getting the pass catching reps and goal line carries as well as compiling 60% or more of the touches. I think he’s a SMASH play for FanDuel especially with the TD upside.
JONATHAN JACOBS $7300 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Jacobs finally had a bad game last week in New Orleans. But that was primarily due to the score of the game and the fact the Saints had the ball for 10 more minutes than the Raiders. He was limited to just 10 carries and 2 catches. But that should all change this week as he gets to face the Jaguars who are allow the 25th most fantasy points to RB’s and are 20th in rushing defense DVOA. The Raiders are a hot mess, but so are the Jags who have lost 5 in a row and are coming back from a trip overseas. I think the Raiders will make it a priority to get Jacobs the ball early and often and he will go for another huge game similar to his games against Houston, KC and Denver.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
JOE MIXON $6500 DraftKings $8100 FanDuel
I’m really not sure what head coach Zach Taylor is doing with his offense. Last week he was facing the Browns who have an aggressive pass rush so he decided to throw 82% of his play calls (only 9 rushes called). And what’s even more ridiculous is that the Browns are BAD against the run ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA. I’m betting he learned his lesson last week and will try to be more balanced so he doesn’t get Burrow killed. Carolina ranks 7th in rush DVOA but allows 126.6 yards per game rushing which is 23rd in the NFL. Close your eyes but this is one of those off the grid plays that has potential to be a big swing in GPP’s. I would not play Mixon in cash games.
TRAVIS ETIENNE $6300 DraftKings $7600 FanDuel
Etienne exploded for 156 rushing yards last week in his first game without James Robinson to share carries with. The Jags RB has now rushed for 427 yards the past 4 games on 58 carries. He’s shot up the charts as one of the top RB’s in all fantasy but yet still priced at only $6300. As for DFS, he’s received 80% of the snap counts the past 2 weeks and if that pace and rate continues he should be in line for a huge game again this week. The Raiders are 18th in rush defense DVOA and allow the 24th most fantasy points to RB’s. Another clear SMASH that will be chalky.
KENNETH WALKER $6200 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel
Walker didn’t have a great game against the Giants as he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on 18 rushes. But he still managed to find the endzone which got him positive 2x return on his salary. He’s averaging over 20 carries per game over the past 3 games and I don’t see that stopping this week. Give me 20+ carries of Walker at this price and I’ll gladly bite. While the Cardinals are solid against the run (13th in yards per game) they are 29th in points allowed at 25.5. So I see endzone potential once again and another good opportunity to roster Walker. I like him better in cash this week and his ceiling is a little lower due to Arizona’s defense and pace.
RAHEEM MOSTERT $6000 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel
The addition of Jeff Wilson does muddy the waters. But I still think Mostert will be the primary back in the Dolphins offense. He has played with Wilson in previous years and they should have a good comradery. But more importantly is the fact the Dolphins face the Bears this week who just last week allowed the Cowboys to run for 200 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. The Bears are also 28th in rush defense DVOA while allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 156. They also traded Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn which severely dents their front 7. Let’s go and trust the Fins are still going to ride the Mostert train.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
JAMAAL WILLIAMS DraftKings $7500 FanDuel
It’s pretty clear that even though De’Andre Swift is back and playing (though questionable on Sunday) t Jamaal Williams is the lead back for carries. Swift did manage to get 55% of the snaps last week but Williams got 55% of the carries. The intrigue this week is Williams faces the Packers who are 31st in rush defense DVOA. They also allow the 29th most rushing yards per game at 141.3. If Swift is out this is a smash. Otherwise, it’s a high upside play for GPP’s only.
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON $5800 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel
He’s back! Cordarrelle Patterson opened a season on a tear by averaging 16.2 fantasy points over his first 4 games. He had 62 touches in those games and 3 touchdowns. He faces the Chargers this week who allow the 31st most fantasy points to RB’s. I love this matchup and think there will be points scored in this game. Feel free to match Patterson and Ekeler in a very good overall game environment.
DEON JACKSON $5200 DraftKings $5000 FanDuel
The recipient of Jonathan Taylor’s ankle injury is Deon Jackson. And he thrived in this role in Week 6 when he scored 28.1 DK points. The other good news is that New England, his opponent this week, is 27th in rush defense DVOA. The Patriots are good against RB’s, allowing 2nd least fantasy points. But they do allow yards so I believe at $5200 on DK, there is good value in Jackson as he should be able to put up both rushing yards and catches this weekend.
BONUS PICKS
My bonus pick this week is LEONARD FOURNETTE ($6600 DK). He is playing against the Rams who have defensed the rush well this year. But he’s still getting over 60% of the snap counts for the slumping Bucs and always has the ability to catch 4+ balls per game.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.
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