Dave Gloeckner 
We had another solid week with the Running Back Report Card in Week 6. We hit on 6 of the top 11 RB’s and rostered a few with 4x value (Hall & Stevenson). So it was a good week for RB’s and Week 7 looks to be shaping up like one with lots of value at the halfback position.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
My strategy this week is to employ 3 RB’s in most of my lineups. I’ll look to take a Tier 1 RB in some lineups but most of my builds will be from Tier 2 and 3 as the potential points in that range are equal to some of the top end RB’s this week but at a much cheaper price.
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
AUSTIN EKELER $8300 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
The rib injury is obviously hampering Justin Herbert and hurting the value of all his receivers. Except for Austin Ekeler. Ekeler leads the league in targets and receptions for RB’s. He averages 7 receptions per game which is up 70% from last season when he averaged 4.3. Even better news for Ekeler this week is that he faces the Seahawks who allow the 2nd most yards per game rushing at 165.8. They are also 30th in points allowed which adds confidence to playing Ekeler this week. A banged up Herbert has been good for #30 and will continue to be in a matchup where he should find a lot of space.
DERRICK HENRY $8200 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
The return of the King to our fantasy radar is here. It was a quiet start to the 2022 season for both Henry and the Titans. But on this 3 game winning streak of theirs, Henry has once again broken out and put up 30.2, 26.7, and 25.3 DK points in those contests. Once was against the team he’s facing this weekend in the Indianapolis Colts. In that game he carried the ball 22 times for 114 yards with 1 TD and also tacked on 3 catches which was good for 26.7 DK points. The Colts have a good defensive front but are 20th in fantasy points allowed to RB’s. And that meets up with a trend as over the past 6 games against Indy, Henry has averaged 125 yards rushing per game and put the ball in the endzone 5 times. He’s a big focus for me this week as I expect the Titans to have a concerted effort to run the ball.
LEONARD FOURNETTE $7700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Fournette is averaging under 4 yards per carry but that doesn’t matter to DFS owners because his 36 targets and 32 catches are 3rd for all RB’s. This week he gets another favorable matchup against the Panthers who allow the 26th most rushing yards per game at 133.3. Additionally, the Panthers have allowed 24 receptions to RB’s which is good for 4 per game. The Bucs are going to be fuming from their offensive struggles against the Steelers and will look to take it out on the Panthers. Some DFS owners will feel scorned from last week and leave Brady and company off their radar. So we may get lower ownership values on the Bucs offense, including Fournette, making them an ideal team stack.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
JOSH JACOBS $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Jacobs is my favorite RB on the board this week. And if you watched the DraftCast, there was good reason why I picked him 1st overall. He is severely underpriced based on his recent outputs and opponent. First, he has rushed for 298 yards in his past 2 games with 10 catches and 2 TD’s. That has been good enough an averaged of 35.4 DK points. Secondly, the Texans can’t stop the run. They couldn’t last year and still can’t this year. They are last in the league in fantasy points allowed to RB’s and are 30th in yards rushing allowed at 164.8. The Raiders had a BYE week last week to rest up and find ways to attack this defense and I expect it’ll be a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. He’s a smash play for me this week.
DAMEON PIERCE $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
Since taking on the majority of the carries, which was Week 2, Pierce has 379 yards rushing in 4 games. He’s averaged 19.1 DK points in those contests and has faced some decent rushing defenses in that span like Jax (9th in DVOA) and Denver (18th DVOA). This week he gets the Raiders who are allowing just 102 yards rushing per game which is 6th lowest in the league. However, their rushing defense DVOA is 15th and they allow 24.8 points per game (26th in MLB). Even though Vegas has solid peripheral numbers, they’ve faced just two primary ball carriers in Ekeler and Henry and they averaged 18.4 points per game. So there is value here in Pierce as long as this game stays competitive.
BREECE HALL $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Breece Hall is a fantasy hero. And the same goes for DFS. In his first 3 games he carried the ball just 21 times. In his last 3 games, he’s carried it 55 times. And his other numbers have increased as well as he’s scored a TD in 3 straight games. This week Hall gets the Broncos who we’ve seen allow big games to opposing RB’s (Ekeler, Jacobs, and Wilson). They are 18th in rushing DVOA and 15th in points allowed to RB’s. The Jets are creative enough in their offense to find ways to get Hall the ball and I expect 20+ touches again which should give us a floor of 15 points but a ceiling of 30.
EZEKIAL ELLIOT $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
This is the first article that I’m actually touting Zeke. The Lions come into this contest as the 31st ranked rushing defense according to DVOA. Detroit was on a bye last week but the last time they played they allowed 161 yards rushing to Rahmondre Stevenson. They are 32nd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 167.6. If there’s one thing the Cowboys have done since having Dak Prescott out of the lineup it’s concentrate on the running game as they have rushed for 642 yards in that 5 game span. And Zeke has been the prime beneficiary of that focused attack as he has 334 yards in the last 5 games and 2 TD’s. I like both Zeke and Pollard this week but at this price I’ll take the RB with more goal line carries.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
KENNETH WALKER III $5800 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Walker is now the lead back in an offense due to an injury. And he’s taking advantage of that with a 19 DK point outing in his first start last week against the Cardinals. This week, Walker faces the Chargers who have allowed the 3rd most points to running backs this season. We’re getting a lead back versus a bad rushing defense for under $6K. Additionally, Vegas has this game as the highest total on the board at 50.5. Smash this play!
BONUS PICKS
I already listed my 10 favorites but I want to give you a bonus to consider. When I started this article, Christian McCaffrey ($8400 DK) was a Carolina Panther. As I post this today, he is now a San Francisco 49er. And that changes things a lot. Rumors are he will play this week and he has a dream matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are 28th against RB’s from a fantasy point perspective. They haven’t allowed a ton of yards on the ground but that’s because everyone is passing on them and CMac is 2nd in the league in RB targets and catches. He’s back home in the San Fran area and ready to rock. He’s underpriced at $8400.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.
Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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