Dave Gloeckner 
Let’s go! We’re coming off a really good week of RB projections here at the Running Back Report. We gave out 7 of the top 11 RB’s and we saw 13 RB’s produce over 20 DK points. So it was a good week for RB’s and the Milli-Maker winner rostered 3 which is a strategy we recommended in Week 5.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). I usually give you a core 4 and this week that is in Tier 1.
My strategy this week is to employ 3 RB’s in most of my lineups. I’ll look to take a Tier 1 RB in some lineups but most of my builds will be from Tier 2 and 3 as the potential points in that range are equal to some of the top end RB’s this week but at a much cheaper price.
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
NICK CHUBB $8200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
Chubb has been the best RB in football this season. He has more yards after contact (415) than everyone has from scrimmage except for Saquon Barkley. He leads the league in TD’s, rushing yards, a runs of 10 yards or more. So while you have to pay a premium for Chubb, you are getting a back who is guaranteed 20+ touches and has a very high floor. This week he faces the Patriots who are allowing 128.8 yards per game rushing which is 25th in the league. New England is ranked 28th in rushing defense DVOA. This should be another heavy workload for Chubb and he should be able to have success against the Pats who have allowed two runners to go over 100 yards in just 5 games.
SAQUON BARKLEY $7700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Barkley made the most of his 16 touches last week by scoring a TD and recording 19.6 DK points. It was his lowest usage this year but that didn’t stop him from producing. This week the Giants face the Ravens who are dead last against the pass. Baltimore has allowed 34 receptions to RB’s which is on average of 7 per game. As for the Giants, Barkley has produced 78% of their backfield receptions (18 of 23) and he actually leads his team in receptions. The Ravens are 17th in rushing defense DVOA so there will be yards to have on the ground but I think Barkley’s value is increased this week due to his projecting for 5+ catches.
AARON JONES $7600 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Aaron Jones has 2 less carries than his teammate AJ Dillon. But he has 145 more yards and 5 more receptions which makes him the much more valuable Packers RB. The key to this week is his matchup with the Jets. New York was torched on the ground last week by Raheem Mostert. And they are now 19th in rushing defense DVOA. Green Bay has a better O Line (just ask Tua) and running game than Miami. I expect the Packers to get right this week and commit to the run game which will bring value to both Jones and Dillon.
LEONARD FOURNETTE $7400 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Fournette has just 53 rushing yards in his past 2 games. But he has a total of 54.3 DK points in those 2 outings good for 27.2 per contest. That’s because he’s a great pass catcher and has 17 receptions to offset the low rushing totals. Bring on the Steelers who have allowed 129.2 yards per game on the ground which is good for 23rd in the NFL. And they’ve allowed the 6th most points this year at 25.6 points per game. I expect the Bucs to put up yards and points in chunks and for Fournette to once again be a factor in the passing and running game.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
JOE MIXON $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Joe Burrow isn’t the only one feeling the effects of a bad offensive line. That’s because Bengals RB Joe Mixon is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season which is a career low. However, he’s still one of the highest used RB’s as he has 116 touches in 5 games which is good for an average of 23 per game. His opponent, New Orleans, has played RB’s well as they are 8th best in points allowed to backs. But they have allowed 130 rushing yards per game which is good for 24th. I love Mixon this week and think he is primed for a breakout game based on the Saints allowing 25.6 points per game and the projected volume of touches for the talented RB.
JEFF WILSON $6200 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
Jeff Wilson turned in his best game of the season last week against the Panthers going for 120 yards on 17 carries. That performance was good for 23.2 DK points which was the 9th highest point total last week. In Week 6 he gets to face the Falcons who have allowed the 23rd most points to RB’s this season. And Atlanta is 27th in rushing defense DVOA. So this is a great matchup for Kyle Shanahan’s run game and Wilson will once again excel and should be focused in your lineups at this price point.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Stevenson was in a shared role with Damien Harris but unfortunately Harris suffered a significant hamstring injury last week in the Patriots win against the Lions. Stevenson was the beneficiary as he went for 161 yards which was the highest output on the ground in Week 5. And now that he’s the prime ball carrier, his value skyrockets for fantasy owners. He gets a juicy matchup this week as Cleveland allows the 27th most points to RB’s. And they let up 138.2 yards per game on the ground which is 28th in the league. Stevenson is a great play this week and should be highly owned.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
BREECE HALL $5800 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel
Every year we have a rookie running back that shines and becomes a fantasy superstar. In the past 2 years we’ve seen it with Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris. Now it’s Breece Hall’s turn and he’s taking full advantage. The Jets rookie RB has scored over 11 DK points in each game this year and put up 30.7 points last week versus the Dolphins. Even better news for fantasy owners is the increased carries as he had just 21 in the first 3 weeks but 35 in the past 2 games alone. This week Hall will face the Packers who are 30th in rushing defense DVOA. They have allowed big games to Barkley and Harris in the past 2 weeks and Hall should be in line for another solid outing versus a Packers D that is much better versus the pass than the run.
KENNETH WALKER III $5400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Like Stevenson above, Walker is now the lead back in an offense due to an injury. Rashaad Penny suffered a season ending leg injury last week in the Seahawks loss to the Saints. Walker filled in and immediately paid dividends with a 69 yard TD run. He finished the game with 88 yards on 8 carries and he should only get better from here on out. The Seahawks face the Cardinals this week who have been solid against the run but did show some cracks last week as the Eagles were able to run for 139 yards. The Cardinals and Seahawks game has one of the highest totals on the board so you should consider some shares from this game and mine will be focused on Walker.
RAHEEM MOSTERT $5700 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
If didn’t quite believe me last week when I highlighted Mostert being the primary back, you should now. Prior to week 5, Mostert had a 57% snap share to Edmonds 46%. In week 5, Mostert got 46 snaps to Edmonds’s 10. Even more glaring was that Myles Gaskin received more snaps than Edmonds (13). So here we are, a backfield with a clear lead role and one that got 69% of the snaps. And he gets to play the Vikings this week who are 23rd in rushing defense DVOA and 20th in rushing yards allowed. It’s a front that teams like the Eagles and Packers have had success against. I expect the same for Mostert this week as Miami will be hot and that, along with a power run game, can wear down a defensive front.
BONUS PICKS
I already listed my 10 favorites but I want to give you a bonus to consider. I like ENO BENJAMIN ($4600 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) as long as James Conner doesn’t play. Conner and Damien Williams did not practice on Thursday so it looks like it’ll be Benjamin and that would be great for DFS owners. The Seahawks are allowing the 30th most points to runners this season. Benjamin put up 14.3 points last week versus the Eagles on just 11 touches. This could be the steal of the week if he becomes the lead back this week in the Arizona backfield.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.
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