Dave Gloeckner 
Week 15 saw us hit 4 of the top 8 scoring RB’s. But we left some meat on the bone with our Tier 1 RB’s as only one, Derrick Henry, broke out for a big game. But once again we saw 2 RB’s with an ownership under 1% (Algier & Mack) end up in the top 10. Those are the off-script plays that often make, or break, a slate. This week, Saturday is the big slate so this article focuses on those 10 games. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to you all!
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As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
DERRICK HENRY $8600 DraftKings $9800 FanDuel
I’ll make this one quick and simple. Derrick Henry has rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games against the Houston Texans. His game lines look like this:
10/30/2022: 32 rushes, 219 yards, 2 TD’s
1/3/2021: 34 rushes, 250 yards, 2 TD’s
10/18/2020: 22 rushes, 212 yards, 2 TD’s
12/29/2019: 32 rushes, 211 yards, 3 TD’s
While the Texans have been better of late, do your best to find room for Henry on Saturday. Jacksonville won on Thursday so the Titans need to do everything they can to win this game. Which means feed King Henry.
SAQUON BARKLEY $7900 DraftKings $8500 FanDuel
Barkley bounced back last week from one of his worst games of the season and put up a solid 23 DK points. He’s pretty much the whole offense for the Giants, minus some runs from Daniel Jones. And he should be able to find some room this week against the Vikings as they allow the 13th most points to RB’s per game. Most teams attack Minnesota through the air, as they allow the 2nd most passing yards. But understanding the Giants issues in the passing offense, it’s likely they’ll use play action to open up the passing lanes to eventually setup the run. I have confidence in Saquon this week and rank him as my #2 RB.
DALVIN COOK $7200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
This one pains me because I’m playing against Cook in the WinDaily Fantasy Football league playoffs this week (see picture of matchup below). But Cook has a dream matchup facing a New York Giants rush defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. The Giants have allowed a team to rush for 100 yards or more in 6 consecutive games. And they are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at 150.4. Cook has not broke a slate this season so I like him more in cash. But he’s getting the touches, 85 over the past 4 games, so he has potential for a high ceiling and at this salary is playable in GPP’s. I would just rather go with Henry or Barkley and a lower tier RB for my tournaments and save Cook for cash (maybe that’s me hoping for a dud to help my WD team).
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
KENNETH WALKER $6400 DraftKings $6900 FanDuel
Starting a dinged up RB is always concerning. But Walker draws a good matchup against the Chiefs who allow the 11th most points to RB’s. Coach Pete Carroll said Walker will go and if he’s out there they’ll feed him. He received 16 touches last week in a tough matchup against SF and still managed to put-up double-digit fantasy points. The biggest concern will be the possibility of a blow out. But KC has played 4 one score games in the past 5 weeks and that included games to Denver and Houston. So I’ll tread lightly here but will get some exposure to Walker against a vulnerable KC defense.
MILES SANDERS $6200 DraftKings $7100 FanDuel
Sanders was a disappointment to fantasy owners last week as he managed just 42 yards against the Bears and their 30th ranked run D. However, that was more on coach Nick Sirianni as Sanders received his first carry 20 minutes into the game as the Eagles focused on passing early against Chicago. Now that Jalen Hurts has been ruled out this week against the Boys, the Eagles will try to dominate the line of scrimmage and slow the pace of the game. That means Sanders could be in line for a heavy workload. Which would make sense as Dallas is coming off a game in which they allowed 192 rushing yards to Jacksonville. Since owners will be down on Sanders from last week, and the fact that Minshew is at QB, we should see low ownership here which also boosts his value.
EZEKIAL ELLIOTT $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Zeke has been a model of consistency over the past 5 weeks. He’s had no less than 15 carries but no more than 17. And he’s scored at least 1 TD in each of those games while averaging 17 DK points per outing. He’s a better value on FanDuel because of his TD potential. But I also see value on DK, especially in cash where his floor is low (hasn’t scored less than 15.1 DK points in 10 weeks).
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
JERRICK MCKINNON DraftKings $5900 FanDuel $7300
I was on the sidelines again with respect to ownership of Jerrick McKinnon. I just didn’t see a game script where the Texans would take the Chiefs to OT. And I feel that you need a game where KC has to get in full pass mode to get McKinnon to break again. With the weather in KC projecting to be freezing (high of 20 F), this feels more like a ground game which would benefit Pacheco. However, Seattle allows the 2nd most points to RB’s primarily because they give up a ton in the passing game to lead backs. Just look at these games from lead RB’s:
- McCaffery – 6 receptions
- Josh Jacobs – 6 receptions
- James Conner – 5 receptions
- Austin Ekeler – 12 receptions
- Alvin Kamara – 6 receptions
- Javonte Williams – 11 receptions
That’s 6 RB’s in 14 weeks that have at least 5 catches. That’s music to Andy Reid’s ears and will likely mean another 60%+ snap count for McKinnon. He’ll be chalk but will likely be worth it at this price especially on DK. He’s a fade for me on FD.
JK DOBBINS DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $7000
This is my favorite RB on the board on Saturday. Dobbins has gone for 245 yards in his last two games averaging 18.9 DK points in those games. On Christmas Eve, he gets to face the Falcons who are 26th in rush defense DVOA. With Lamar Jackson already ruled out, it should be another run heavy game for the Ravens which should feature Dobbins. He out-snapped his main RB competitor, Gus Edwards, 2 to 1 last week which shows the Ravens have confidence JK is fully back from his injury. Let’s load up on the Ravens rushing game versus a bad Falcons defense that is pretty much playing for a draft pick.
DEVIN SINGLETARY DraftKings $5400 FanDuel $6400
The weather forecast in Chicago for Saturday is a high of 13 degrees F. It will be cold and windy which benefits the running game. And what benefits the running game even more is the fact that Chicago is 27th in rush defense DVOA. While James Cook is pushing Devin Singletary some, it’s still been #26’s backfield as he hit 60% snap count last week against Miami (his highest since Week 11). I see potential for Singletary to get a good dose of carries (15+) and be a valuable GPP option in your lineups on Saturday.
NFL DFS BONUS PICKS
My bonus pick this week is JAMAL WILLIAMS ($5200 DK, $6800 FD). The NFL’s leader in rushing TD’s is down in the dumpster diving salary range. Yes he’s stunk it up the past 2 weeks with a combined 7 DK points. But he’s still seen double digit carries every single week this season. And he gets to face the Panthers who are 21st in rushing defense DVOA and 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Carolina is coming off a game where they allowed 156 yards to the Steelers which was Pittsburgh’s 3rd highest output on the ground this season. With the weather being a factor in the northeast due to a winter storm, I see another game that could turn into a ground battle which favors Williams since Swift is mainly deployed for passing situations.
RB PROP BETS
DEREK HENRY Anytime TD (-145 DK)
JERRICK MCKINNON over 3.5 receptions (+120 DK)
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