Dave Gloeckner 
We had a day in Week 9 of the Main Slate for the NFL. All lineups that hit big had 3 RB’s rostered. And the 3 best RB’s were all in our Tier 2 recommendations; Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne and Kenneth Walker. The shift from a passing league is real as we see more production out of RB’s week in and week out. Will Week 10 be any different? I’d say no, and once again recommend a RB in your Flex Spot. And the DFS community agrees as we have the most RB’s priced over $7K this week.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
SAQUON BARKLEY $8600 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel
Houston we have a problem And it’s that pathetic rushing defense that the Texans roll out each and every week. This week, the problem gets worse as Houston faces the NFL’s 3rd leading rusher in Saquon Barkley. The Giants RB is averaging 98 yards per game rushing and adds 23 receiving yards as well. The Texans allow the most points to fantasy RB’s and the most rushing yards per game. Don’t get too complicated here, Barkley is the top choice in Tier 1, and maybe on the board, based on his matchup today.
DERRICK HENRY $8300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel
It looks like Ryan Tannehill will be back under center for the Titans which is good news for both Tennessee and Derrick Henry. In the second half of last week’s game against KC, Henry amassed only 23 yards with no rush going for more than 7 yards. In fact, the Titans managed only 1 first down the entire second half. It showed that the Chiefs stacked the box and took away Henry to make Tennessee QB Malik Willis try to beat them. And that strategy worked and is likely what teams would do going forward. But with Tannehill back that should free up the box and open up the run game. Which should benefit them today as Denver has the 25th worst run defense according to DVOA. The last time they played, Travis Etienne ran for 156 yards against the Broncos. And now they’re without their star DE Bradley Chubb. Henry should be back in beast mode and put up big numbers once again today.
NICK CHUBB $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel
The NFL’s 2nd leading rusher is fresh off a bye week and has a premium matchup today as the Browns face the Dolphins in Miami. The Fins rank 7th in rushing defense DVOA but are coming off a game in which they allowed 252 yards rushing to the Bears. Yes, most of that was done by QB Justin Fields but it still showed vulnerability in their front 7. Most teams just pass on the Dolphins but teams that have committed to the run have found success (Dalvin Cook 5.9 ypc, Breece Hall 5.4 ypc, etc). Chubb is just one of those backs that we can trust in any matchup and I especially like him today based on the probability of a low ownership number and him coming off a bye.
JONATHAN TAYLOR $7500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Yes, the injury risk is here. As Taylor keeps battling an ankle injury there is concern he could aggravate it during the game. But if he can overcome that, I think this is the best spot for a RB on the board this week. First, it’s the Raiders who are a complete mess coming off another game in which they blew a 17 point lead. Secondly, the Colts have a new HC and play caller this week and that benefits Taylor the most. Keep it simple and feed one of the best RB’s in the league. Especially when you have a practice squad player at the QB position. Another one that’s simple here, for GPP’s take the risk in Taylor. For cash, play a safer option. NOTE: Great price on FanDuel and one of the top plays on that market.
ALVIN KAMARA $7400 DraftKings $8600 FanDuel
The Saints RB has been all or nothing so far this year. But his all was good enough to lead a Milli-Maker lineup back in Week 8 against Las Vegas. And that potential combined with his opponent this week make him a viable play. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 11th in rushing DVOA but allow the 15th most points to fantasy RB’s. And what makes this a good matchup for Kamara is that the game should be a slower paced outing that is close. The Saints got away from their gameplan last week as Baltimore got out to an early lead. But Pittsburgh does not have the explosive type of offense that will make the Saints get away from their script. That benefits Kamara and I think he will see 20+ touches today. And in games he’s received at least 18 touches, he’s averaged 26.5 DK points.
TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel
Since taking over the lead RB role for the Jags, Travis Etienne has averaged 127 yards rushing per game as well as 27 DK points. He is receiving 80% of the snaps which is the highest in the league in that 3 week span. Today he faces the Chiefs who allow the 30th most points to RB’s. Etienne is in a great spot to once again go over 100 yards rushing and 25 DK points.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
TONY POLLARD $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
The well is dry in the Tier 2 pool as DFS markets have adjusted RB salaries to make it harder for us to optimize our lineups. But there is still value here and that starts with Pollard in Dallas. Much of this play depends on Ezekial Elliott’s status. If Zeke doesn’t play, Pollard becomes my #1 owned RB this week. That’s because Green Bay is terrible against the run. They allow 138 yards per game on the ground which is good for 26th in the league. And they are the 31st rush defense according to DVOA. Every lead RB they’ve faced has gone over 67 yards in the game except for Leonard Fournette. And we all know how bad Fournette is running so that shouldn’t even count. Smash Pollard against this porous defense today. If Zeke plays he’s still a solid play but loses that top end GPP potential.
D’ANDRE SWIFT $6400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Swift does not carry an injury designation into today which makes this a very intriguing spot to roll him back into your lineups. The Bears are 28th in rushing defense DVOA and are 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. While Jamaal Williams will get more touches, Swift will likely get more snaps and an ability to shine in the passing game. I’m comfortable playing Swift in both cash and GPP.
DAMEON PIERCE $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel
This is a great spot for Pierce as the Giants have one of the weaker rushing defenses in the league. While they allow the 10th least fantasy points to RB’s, they are 24th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 25th most rushing yards per game. And the one thing we know about Pierce is that he will get the ball as the alternatives behind him are weak (Burkhead, Ogunbow). Just last week he received 78% of the snaps which was 4td in the league only trailing Etienne, Cook and Kamara. This is an absolute mis-price for Pierce and I think he’s inline for another big game. I like him in both GPP and cash but will play him more in cash games.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6200
This is strictly a GPP shot in the dark. Last week, Pacheco started the game for the Chiefs and managed just 5 carries for 5 yards. The game script got away from the Chiefs early as they trailed the Titans for most of the game. That allowed the snap count to tip heavily to Jerrick McKinnon and make fantasy owners wonder who is the lead back for KC. I still think they have a plan to employ more Pacheco and I believe that will show up this week versus a Jags D that allows the 23rd most points to RB’s. For this to payoff we’ll need a rushing TD and the Jags have allowed 9 of those to RB’s so far this season.
BONUS PICKS
My bonus pick this week is DAVID MONTGOMERY ($6000 DK). We can’t go a week without talking about the Lions and their 31st ranked run defense. Montgomery also out-snapped Herbert by a margin of 70% to 22%. It’s clearly his backfield when they are not running with Fields. But I could see a game today where both go over 100 yards versus Detroit. They’re that bad against the run.
RB PROP BETS
DAMEON PIERCE over 81.5 yards rushing (-125)
DAVID MONTGOMERY Anytime TD (-105)
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