We had a huge NFL Week 6 here at the Running Back Report Card. We nailed the top three scoring RBs last week in Raheem Mostert, Kyren Williams, and Travis Etienne. And each of those players was $7100 or less. Taking it a step further, we ended up hitting on 6 of the top 9 scoring RBs and avoided some of the bigger salary flops such as McCaffrey and Bijan. So we’ll give out our first A+ grade of the year and look to carry that into Week 7 here at WinDaily. As for Week 7, this looks to be a week in which I’ll pay up for an RB1. We’ve been living in Tier 2 and 3 the past few weeks, and while there’s still good value there, I do like the potential of Tier 1 this week.

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I highlight my favorite ten RBs each week and break them into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So, let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 3 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

We saw Barkley return to action last week and the Giants didn’t waste any time ensuring he got the ball. The former Penn State RB saw 28 touches against the Bills and turned that into 100 total yards. While he didn’t get in the endzone, the volume is what makes attracts us to Barkley this week. Simply put, the Giants are in must-win mode. They are 1-5 and have the worst point differential in the NFL at -96. Today they get a division rival, in the Commanders. If they lose this one, the season is all but over before Halloween even hits the calendar.

And seeing the Commanders is a good thing for Barkley as he averages 5.8 ypc against Washington in his career. Add to that he also puts up 130 yards per game from scrimmage against the team from our Nation’s Capital and we have a high volume situation with great past performance.

JOSH JACOBS $7400 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Josh Jacobs is 4th in the league in snap percentage (78.3%) and 3rd in the league in touches (132). But the issue has been what he’s done with the touches as Jacobs is averaging just 2.91 ypc. And he’s too good of an RB for that to continue. Which leads us to today’s matchup where he gets to face the Bears who are 17th in rushing defense DVOA. The other good news is the Bears are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. Then look at the potential game script today as QB Aidan O’Connell will get his first career NFL start. It would make a lot of sense to feed Jacobs early and often to simplify and protect their rookie QB.

BIJAN ROBINSON $7300 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

Bijan Robinson has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season. And since Week 1, he’s averaged 75% of the snaps for the Falcons. The issue lately, is the Falcons have trailed early and turned to their passing game thus decreasing Bijan’s carries. However, that should change this week as the Falcons visit the Bucs. That’s because this game has one of the lowest totals on the board at 37.5. Keeping a slower game script should allow Atlanta to commit to the run. And while Tampa is 10th in rushing defense DVOA, they have allowed several big running games including 201 yards to the Eagles.

Last point to consider is that Bijan averages 4+ catches per week. The Bucs allow 6 catches per game to RBs, including a game where they allowed 11 to Alvin Kamara.

KENNETH WALKER III $7000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

The Arizona Cardinals are quickly turning into the 2022 Houston Texans for us RB focused DFS players. That’s because Arizona is bleeding points to RB’s, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to backs on the season. The Cardinals are ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA and have allowed 8 rushing TD’s, which is 4th most in the league. This is an underpricing on DraftKings and a much better play in DFS games there.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

AARON JONES $6800 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

Even though he carries a questionable tag, news out of Green Bay is that Aaron Jones will suit up today. And if he does, he’s in the biggest smash spot on the slate. That’s because he gets to face the Broncos who have the worst rushing defense in the league allowing 172 yards per game on the ground. They are ranked last in rushing defense DVOA and have the highest yards per carry in the league at 5.6. This is a great spot for the Packers RB to put up a big game in the Mile High City.

JAMES COOK $6400 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Outside of a dud game against the Jags, Cook has been a steady performer for the Bills. And today, he gets to face a team he’s had success against in the New England Patriots. Last season, he played 2 games against the Pats and racked up 156 yards from scrimmage including 8 catches. And we all know the struggles the Patriots have had this season, sitting at 1-5 and on the verge of making a complete roster turnover. But buried in all their bad play, is also a run defense that can be exposed as they’ve allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6300 DraftKings $6200 FanDuel

WinDaily projection model has Gibbs as the 3rd highest value on the board today. And who am I to argue with a model that consistently pushes out winners. With David Montgomery out of action, the backfield is Craig Reynolds and Jahmyr Gibbs. They will likely get a even share of snaps, but Gibbs will see more touches as he’s the bigger threat in the passing game. And that’s exactly where we’ll get the value in the Lions RB since the Ravens have one of the better run defenses in the league. The other added benefit with Montgomery being out is the Gibbs will likely assume goal line duties making his TD equity much higher than week’s past.

ISIAH PACHECO $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

The Pacheco train keeps rolling as he has another quality matchup today against the Chargers. The Chiefs RB has received at least 15 carries in each of the last 4 games. He’s also a threat in the passing game with an average of 3 catches per game out of the backfield. And that will be important as the Chargers allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL. This is a smash spot for the Rutgers RB.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BRIAN ROBINSON $5800 DraftKings $7300 FanDuel

The Giants run defense is ranked 30th in DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 2nd most rushing yards on the season. This isn’t something that can be fixed with scheme as the Giants have issues on the DL and with their LBs. Meaning this will continue to be an issue all season long, like it was for them in 2022 as well. As for Robinson, he’s scored a TD in all three of his road games so far and is averaging 18.8 DK points away from home.

JEROME FORD DraftKings $5100 FanDuel $6600

The Browns activated Deon Jackson from the practice squad thus alerting fantasy owners that they are concerned with Kareem Hunt’s thigh injury. Even if Hunt is given the green light to play, Ford will be the starting RB and receive the majority of the snaps and touches. That’s great news for Ford as he’s facing an Indy defense that allows 25 points per game and is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to RBs.

RB PROP BETS

JAHMYR GIBBS ANYTIME TD (+110 DK)

Gibbs has yet to score a TD in the NFL. But with the goal line vulture unable to play today, look for Detroit to turn to Gibbs to get meaningful carries in the redzone and finally punch one in.

AARON JONES over 54.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110 DK)

Obviously the risk here is the status and health of Jones’ hamstring. Coming into Week 7, the Packers have the 11th best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. So all we need is health and this O-Line should easily pave the way for Jones to blow past this mark against the worst run defense in the NFL.

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