We had a solid first week at The Running Back Report. I personally gave a grade of B+, as we hit on the top scoring RB and had one of the best returns with Aaron Jones going for 6.5x value. But we didn’t see Roschon Johnson, Kyren Williams, or Josh Kelley being top 11 RB’s. If you were one of the 0.09% that owned one of these backs, then hats off to you and hopefully you turned it into a big profit. Just goes to show value can be found anywhere, including back-ups, to help propel lineups to success.

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Each week I highlight my favorite ten RB’s and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). So let’s get started with the top ten running backs of Week 1 in the NFL.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Giants’ fans want to completely ignore last week’s 40-0 loss to Dallas. And I can’t blame them as it is just one game. I’d say DFS players should take the same advice because you can’t just turn the page on several Giants offensive players based on one game that got off script fast. Instead, this week will tell us a lot about the G-Men and whether they are going to grow from last year’s success.

To me, that starts with Saquon Barkley as the Giants will need to get back to basics and feed their best player the ball. Even in a blowout loss, Barkley received 64% of the snaps in Week 1 and that would have been more if not for the score. And he lands on a good square this week as Arizona’s defense is projected in the bottom third of the league. While they fared decently against the Commanders, some of that is masked by Sam Howell’s poor play. Looking at 2022, the Cardinals finished 22nd in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th most rushing TD’s (21).

Lastly, Saquon had two games in 2022 where he had less than 12 carries (Barkley had 12 carries in Week 1 vs Dallas). In the week following, he received 23 touches. You can book the Giants RB for 20+ touches this week making his floor very high while also adding the possibility of a breakout game.

DERRICK HENRY $7400 DraftKings $8300 FanDuel

Henry didn’t get the volume he typically does in Week 1 as he received just 48% of the RB snaps. But he did get 82% of the touches which is important to note. What made many scratch their head was that Henry had 97 total yards at halftime but touched the ball just five times in the second half. And scratching further, the Titans O-Line received the 4th highest run blocking grade in Week 1 according to Pro Football Focus. Expect HC Mike Vrabel to make corrections this week.

Speaking of Week 2, the LA Chargers come to town, and they graded as the 26th ranked defense against the run win Week 1. Taking it one step further, the Chargers are currently ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA.

So, we have a classic case of an RB underutilized in Week 1, facing a favorable matchup in Week 2. With the Titans coming off a loss to the Saints because of poor QB play, the Chargers are in line to see a heavy dose of King Henry this week.

JOSH JACOBS $7100 DraftKings $7500 FanDuel

Jacobs didn’t have a breakout game in week 1 but he still managed 80% of the snaps and 91.3% of the touches. Which means the Raiders are back to their 2022 ways and will ride their bell cow RB until he says otherwise. And for Jacobs, another rushing title, or something close, will go a long way towards a better contract in 2024.

His opponent in Week 2, the Buffalo Bills, allowed 173 yards on the ground to the Jets in Week 1. Yes, 83 of those were on one play but it was still a massive number as the Bills allowed the 4th least rushing yards in the league in 2022. The Raiders graded out well as an O-Line in Week 1 allowing just 3 pressures. If they can keep that up against Greg Rosseau and company, it should open up holes for Jacobs in the running game.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TRAVIS ETIENNE $6900 DraftKings $8200 FanDuel

Etienne had an impressive Week 1 performance. Not because he needed a late rushing TD to provide his value to owners. But more importantly he dominated the snap count and received 80% of all RB plays. This usage rate is reminiscent of his run last year when he frequently eclipsed the 80% snap count.

With the knowledge of how Jacksonville intends on deploying their RB’s, we get to use that in a juicy matchup this weekend with KC. The Chiefs were without star DE Chris Jones in Week 1, and they did little to stop a Lions rushing attack as they allowed Detroit to rush for 118 yards. Based on their performance, FTN has the Chiefs ranked 28th against the run, according to DVOA. And even with Jones back in the fold, he’ll likely be limited until his conditioning returns to 100%. And with the heat expected in Florida, the Jaguars O-Lind could expose a thin Chiefs D-Line this week.

JAHMYR GIBBS $6300 DraftKings $5800 FanDuel

As we like to say here at WinDaily, it’s not always about the numbers as it also is about the eye test. And the latter is what has me fired up with Gibbs. He was clearly a difference maker on the field last Thursday night as he displayed a raw combination or speed and power. While he only received 27% of the snaps and 29% of the touches, that ratio should grow as the season goes on. He’s too talented of a player to not use more in Detroit’s offense and I’m certain Lions OC Ben Johnson knows that.

As for his opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, they had another rough display of defense in Week 1 as they allowed the Rams to rack up 426 yards of total offense. While they failed more in the passing game, the Seahawks graded out as the 12th worst rushing defense according to DVOA in Week 1. And this was a common flaw last season as they finished 2022 with the 25th ranked rushing defense in DVOA.

Remember, Seattle and Detroit played last season and combined for 93 points. It may not get that high again but it was a game environment that won the Milly. Gibbs may only get 30% of the snaps but he has the potential to break a big one and is up against a very vulnerable defense.

JAMES CONNER $6200 DraftKings $6400 FanDuel

Outside of Christian McCaffrey, no other RB had a higher percentage of snaps in Week 1 than James Conner. He played 52 of 62 snaps accounting for an 84% rate. He was a factor in the passing game too as he came down with five receptions on five targets. Though dealing with a calf strain, if healthy, Conner has one of the weekend’s best matchups.

The Giants allowed 122 yards rushing and a 4.1 ypc in Week 1 against the Cowboys. And it would have likely been worse if Tony Pollard played the 2nd half of the game as he racked up 70 yards on 5.0 ypc before being pulled with 25 minutes left in the game. The run defense was also an Achilles heel for the GMen last year as they finished last in rush defense DVOA in 2022.

JAMES COOK $6100 DraftKings $6600 FanDuel

Speaking of eye tests, Tony said it on our WinDaily Sports NFL DraftCast last night, and that is James Cook is a beast. He runs hard with bad intentions. While the Bills lost to the Jets in Week 1, their one shining spot was their RB as Cook received 60% of the snaps and 72.1% of the touches.

He now gets the opportunity to light up a Raiders defense that allowed 4.42 ypc to Denver RB’s in Week 1. They also allowed ten targets to Broncos RB’s, with eight completed. This week is a great opportunity for the Bills to rebound from a loss. However, it’s also a great matchup for an RB that they will lean heavily on this season.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

AJ DILLON $5900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Aaron Jones is questionable to play in this game as he has a hamstring injury. If he doesn’t, AJ Dillon becomes a top candidate to roster this week. In short, the Green Bay running game was solid in week 1 as they generated the 14th best run blocking grade. Their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, were 27th against the run in 2022. After Week 1, they’ve improved that to 18th, but they did allow 154 rushing yards to the Panthers. That also included allowing six catches to RB’s which was 7th most in the league last week.

Jones should be able to expose the Falcons D in the passing game, like he did the Bears in Week 1. So if he’s active, he should be considered. However, as we know with hamstrings they can often linger and for that reason I’m hoping he sits and AJ Dillon gets the full workload.

KENNETH WALKER DraftKings $5800 FanDuel $6700

Kenneth Walker had a solid Week 1, with 12 carries for 64 yards. Based on the score, he only saw three of those carries after halftime. So it could have been a much better outing for the Seahawks RB. But he gets another shot this week to show he’s fully recovered from his preseason groin injury. And that chance is coming against a Detroit Lions team that allowed the 4th most rushing yards in the league in 2022.

Another factor in favor of the Seahawks rushing attack is that they graded out as the 9th best block unit in Week 1. However, they lost their two starting tackles to injury against the Rams. But that will likely have them dial back the playbook and have a more run-focused approach to keep pass-rushing phenom Aidan Hutchinson honest.

RACHAAD WHITE DraftKings $5500 FanDuel $6200

White disappointed many fantasy owners in Week 1 as he only amassed 6.9 fantasy points. However, he did have 19 touches and a 79% snap share. The Vikings were graded out as a decent run defense and that was primarily because their pass D was so bad. Which showed again in Week 1 as they graded out with the 4th worst pash rush in Week 1 and allowed Baker Mayfield to cook (well cook to 173 yards which he only surpassed four times in 2022).

But bring in the Bears and the way to attack them is on the ground and in the air. Pick your poison as the Bears rank 30th against the pass and 18th against the run according to DVOA. With the amount of snaps and touches that White got in Week 1, and the fact that Green Bay RBs were the 2nd highest scoring combination last week, and we have a recipe for White getting back into the good graces of his owners.

RB PROP BETS

DERRICK HENRY over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)

The Chargers are not strong against the run and will have to sell out to stop the Titans ground game. But I think Vrabel and OC Tim Kelly will have the patience to keep the running game going this week. Henry ran for 107 yards against the Chargers last season.

JAMES COOK over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)

The Broncos had success on the ground against the Raiders. And I expect the Bills to have the same this week. Cook looked explosive and received 72% of the touches. He got 46 yards on just 12 rushes in Week 1 as the Bills went with a 61/39 pass run ratio. That will be adjusted this week and I am expecting 15+ carries for Cook which makes this prop easily attainable.

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