Andrew Erickson Welcome to my video that will be released every Thursday. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for Thursday night football. So who is ready for some Week 12 Thursday night football action between the Colts and Texans? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Thursday night Showdown Slate.
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Thursday Night Football Value and Punt Plays
One of the best values on this slate is the Colts DST ($3,200). The Colts’ defense has scored at least three sacks or an interception in five straight games making them a safe floor play versus a leaky Texans’ offensive line. The Texans DST ($4,000) is the bigger fade here. They just have one game over ten fantasy points since Week 4 and have totaled five outings of under ten points in the past six weeks. With Brissett under center, the best defensive performance a team has had versus the Colts has been just ten points. Also, wide receiver Keke Coutee ($2,400) could be an interesting punt play if Will Fuller ($7,800) misses as he got back into the mix in Week 11. He ran just six fewer routes than DeAndre Hopkins ($11,000).
Favorite Stacks
Deshaun Watson ($11,600) has a tougher matchup, but he usually bounces back in these types of games. I love stacking him with Hopkins and Fuller if he plays. If Fuller misses swap in Kenny Stills ($6,400). As we have seen from Monday night football and this season as a whole, hamstring injuries can easily be re-injured so you should get even exposure to both Fuller and Stills. Stills went for over 100 yards in their first matchup. Hopkins has a touchdown reception in four straight games versus the Colts and gone over 85 receiving yards in three of his last four games.
Jacoby Brissett ($10,400) is great versus the Texans who he absolutely shredded for four touchdowns and 326 passing yards back in Week 7. Brissett is undefeated versus the Texans in his career throwing for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games played. However, Hilton played in all those games as well so Brissett would receive a significant downgrade if Hilton cannot go. The Texans matchup is great with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. One reason to fade Brissett is that is home/road splits significantly favor him at home. He has not scored more than 20 points on the road this season.
For a Colts’ stack, this works if T.Y. Hilton ($9,600) plays. In 15 games versus the Texans, Hilton has averaged over 100 yards per game and .7 touchdowns. If Hilton misses Zach Pascal ($8,000) receivers an upgrade. Pascal went for over 100 yards in their last matchup and he saw a career-high in air yards (102) just last week. A less owned target is Marcus Johnson ($4,200). He was second on the team in targets last week (four). Also, he runs a 4.44 and played 92% of the snaps and ran just one less route than Pascal. He was clearly ahead of Chester Rogers. Also, add Eric Ebron ($4,600) to the stack. Ebron has a touchdown reception in his last four games versus the Texans and has seen at least five targets in each contest. The Texans have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position over the past two weeks.
Week 12 Thursday Night Football Contrarian Plays
Most of the ownership is going to gear toward Johnathan Williams ($5,600) after his big game and the injury to Marlon Mack. I for one, prefer the pass-catching back in the captain spot in Nyheim Hines ($6,200). Hines is the best play in Colts backfield in DraftKings scoring. His role always seems to increase when players are injured around him. Last year when Mack missed Weeks 1,3, 4 and 5 Hines saw total targets of nine, eleven, five, and nine. The Texans defense is great versus the run at home where they have allowed just 3.8 yards per attempt. The Texans’ weakness is versus pass-catching running backs. This season no team has allowed more receptions to the running back position than the Texans. Hines best game came back in Week 4 of the 2018 season versus the Texans where he had nine catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns.
Adam Vinatieri ($3,600) has been pretty bad this season, but the Colts are averaging 2.2 field goal attempts per game on the road. Ka’imi Fairbairn ($3,800) averages 8.5 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Fairbairn correlates well to high performance from Watson. Whereas Vinatieri negative correlates to high performance from Brissett.
