Andrew Erickson Welcome to my video that will be released every Thursday. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for Thursday night football. So who is ready for some Week 11 Thursday night football action between the Browns and Steelers? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Thursday night Showdown Slate.
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Thursday Night Football Value and Punt Plays
The only punt plays that DraftKings is allowing here are with the Browns’ tight ends: Demetrius Harris ($4,200), and Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,600). The matchup is fine with the Pittsburgh Steelers allowing the ninth most fantasy points to the TE position. The other punt plays (go figure) include each team’s kicker: Austin Seibert ($3,800) and Chris Boswell ($4,000). This game projects to be low-scoring so the kickers will be featured in many winning GPP lineups. Cleveland over the past three weeks has averaged 2.7 field goal attempts per game. Austin Seibert has made eight field goals over the past three weeks. The Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has also been good lately. He has scored the fourth-most fantasy points at the position over the past three weeks. Cleveland at home as allowed 2.2 field goal attempts per game this season.
From points per game basis, the Steelers DST ($5,200) is easily the best value on the slate. They are averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game compared to quarterback Mason Rudolph ($8,400) who is averaging 13.6.
Favorite Stacks
Vegas was right to back the Browns last week favoring that home even against a 6-2 Bills team, so I am going back to the Browns here recommending a Cleveland stack as 2.5 favorites at home. Building around my core players in Baker Mayfield ($9,000), Nick Chubb ($10,600), and Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,200). On this slate, in particular, the defenses figure to be extremely popular and they should be. So I especially like stacking Chubb with the Browns DST ($4,600).
Week 11 Thursday Night Football Contrarian Plays
You do not have to play a quarterback in some of your rosters. It would not surprise me at all to see both QBs score under 15 fantasy points considering on average they both are scoring per game below that threshold.
Going heavier on the cheaper running backs on each team with Jaylen Samuels ($8,800) and Kareem Hunt ($5,800) who are arguably better in PPR formats from a ceiling projection. Both are more likely to see more receptions than their running back counterparts.
Fading James Conner ($10,800) at his price tag could be a nice contrarian play. Coming off another injury and looking at Conner’s game logs he only has two games this year where he has averaged more than four yards per carry (Bengals and Dolphins). Browns are allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season. Cleveland’s run defense is slightly better at home.
Receivers in the captain spot are always usually the way to go, but are often overlooked. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,600) could be in line for a nice outing with his cornerback matchup versus T.J. Carrie. Carrie has taken over as the primary slot defensive back in Cleveland after the release of Jermaine Whitehead. He has allowed 1.79 yards per snap which is fourth-worst in the NFL. Carrie is by far the worst cornerback on the Browns. The two best performances from receivers versus the Browns this season were Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman who both scored two touchdowns and had double-digit targets.
