Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 7 – A Look Back:
It is amazing to think we have already hit Week 8 of the NFL season but here we are and as we always do before we look forward into the upcoming NFL DFS week, we need to look back at what went right, what went wrong, and how we can apply that to our NFL DFS picks this week.
First and foremost – a huge shout-out to Win Daily founder Jason Mezrahi who took home $15,000 on Sunday with a Murray/Hopkins/Lockett game stack that was made possible by using the punt RB1 value we got with Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams.
Interestingly enough, this build was very similar to the Milly Maker winner on DraftKings who scored 279 DK points with a similar Arizona/Seattle game stack – using Wilson/Lockett and Hopkins and the same punt value in Jamaal Williams. The value at RB in this case – allowed them to also grab Davante Adams as a one-off WR and having that Stars/Scrubs approach was a consistent trend found at the top of winning lineups.
Looking at Single Entry games (using the $50 entry, $50K to first) we saw similarly high scores (276 DK points), and much of the same names – Lockett, Adams and Williams – but in this case, they used a cheap Bengals passing stack with Burrow/Boyd to really set them apart.
Looking at the winning builds – the two biggest takeaways were how Stars and Scrubs really dominated the leader boards and it also meant that a lot of chalk hit – especially the bargain RB’s like Williams that made it possible for you to load up on the studs like Adams/Lockett who were consensus top plays on the slate.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 8 First Look:
Looking ahead to this week – we have a very similar top-heavy slate with some obvious elite game environments at the top end of our builds which means the Stars will be at a premium but we really need to wait to see how the value breaks to understand how many Scrubs we can utilize if we want to replicate the Week 7 winning formula.
As of this writing – we have 4 games with 50+ game totals – all of which also have less than a TD spread which is ideal for the high & tight game environments we want to focus on when narrowing our player pool.
- Vikings and Packers – Opened at 55.5
- Titans and Bengals – Opened at 55.5
- Raiders and Browns – Opened at 55.5
- Niners and Seahawks – Opened at 54
The top end of the player pool has some serious star power and the match-ups align with some of the high Vegas totals mentioned above that is going to make paying up for the studs – path #1 on everyone’s NFL DFS picks journey.
The Running Back position has 4 clear top-dogs to choose from – with Alvin Kamara ($8.2K) and Derrick Henry ($8K) being the premium options while we wait to see if both Dalvin Cook ($7.5K) and Aaron Jones ($7.3K) are able to return for this projected shoot-out in Green Bay.
The key with Kamara is going to be the status of Michael Thomas who has a 1-2 week injury timetable with ankle/hamstring injuries that could keep him out again this week versus Chicago. Kamara had 22 total touches (carries/catches) for 148 total yards and while he did not get into the endzone last week, his volume in this Saints offense is going to keep him a top priority for as long as MT is sidelined. The “down” game of just 22.8 DK points may lead people into a false sense of security that they don’t need to pay for Kamara in this spot – but Kamara has the 40+ point upside that made Lockett/Adams slate-breaking plays last week – stay the course and lock him in again this week.
Henry was largely held in check by the Steelers run D last week, but he still managed 75 yards and a TD as one of the most consistent volume backs in the NFL and this week he gets a far more favorable match-up against the Bengals who have up 4.2 YPC to Kareem Hunt a week ago.
Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook are two of the biggest names to watch this week as we get a re-match of a Week 1 showdown between the Packers/Vikings that was at the heart of winning GPP builds. Assuming he is back after the Week 7 bye, Cook steps into the juiciest of match-ups against a Packers team giving up the most FP/G to opposing RB’s and we saw back in Week 1 – he ripped up this Green Bay defense for 2 TD’s and 22 DK points.
The WR’s in that Packers-Vikings game in Davante Adams ($8.8K) and Adam Theilen ($7.2K) provide even more fire power at the top of the WR player pool and a look back at Week 1, shows just the kind of ceiling we are talking about as Adams (44.6 DK points) and Thielen (34 DK points) put on an absolute show.
The Vikings are giving up the third most FP/G to opposing WR’s and getting a WR/Opposing RB stack has been one of the best secondary roster build strategies on DK this season – setting up for a Davante Adams/Dalvin Cook 1-2 punch that is finding itself into many of my first looks.
Overall – the top end of this player pool is, well – STRONG – and I think we could see 2 of these guys in the optimal builds much like we saw in Week 7. The key is – will we have the value to make it work?
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Stack it Up!
Now writing this as a first look puts us at a “disadvantage” in that we don’t have all the late week news that could really change the slate. The other point of view is that you get a first look that is clear and may lead you to plays that will get lost later in the week as folks all pivot to the same popular bargains.
I mentioned the Raiders-Browns game above as a 50+ game total and I will be interested to see how our Adjusted Team Totals tool treats this game once projections are final because on the face of it – we have two exploitable defenses we can attack with some seriously soft-pricing and injury issues that may give us clear paths to value.
The Browns give up the second most FP/G to opposing WR’s and after seeing what Joe Burrow and the Bengals did to this Browns D last week – the pricing on the Raiders feels far too low.
Burrow as a reminder, threw for 406 yards and 3 TD’s, running in another on his way to a massive 38 DK point outing. Tyler Boyd took on 13 targets and hauled in 11 passes for 101 yards and a TD for 30.1 DK points of his own while secondary WR’s like Tee Higgins (18) and AJ Green (15) as well as TE Drew Sample (10) all made their way to double-digit fantasy point outings.
So with that backdrop in mind – go take a look at the Las Vegas Raiders pricing and you start to see why this stack has so much appeal.
Derek Carr ($5.5K) has put up 20+ DK points in three straight weeks and 4 of 6 weeks overall and somehow sits as one of the 5 cheapest starting QB’s on DK. His WR’s – Henry Ruggs ($4.9K) and Nelson Algholor ($4.7K) – both played 75% or more of the snap count in Week 7 and along with TE Darren Waller ($5.6K) – you have multiple stacking partners that can work alongside Carr in the hopes you get a similar script against the Browns that Cincinnati used.
The Browns will now be without “star” WR Odell Beckham Jr. which puts the burden on Jarvis Landry as the clear WR1 now but it also elevates fringe options like Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones into major roles as they played 85% and 70% of the team snaps last week.
Outside of OBJ – the Browns also lost TE Austin Hooper due to an appendectomy and with a Week 9 bye looking for the injury-ravaged Browns, it would seem logical to give Hooper the full break to recover. This could once again open up the TE bargain bin for Harrison Bryant ($3.2K) and David Njoku ($3.8K). Bryant played 77% of the snaps at TE last week, leading the team in red-zone targets and capturing two TD’s – and well, at this price point with no Hooper would be an easy value play once again.
The Raiders/Browns stack offers up a few really appealing options as we get a high total, close spread, exploitable DvP match-up – and all that comes at cheap price tags that allow us to pay up for 2 or more of the studs we mentioned above.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
As we head into the rest of the week – the fantasy football content and news will come at us non-stop and Win Daily is no different – we will have our Game by Game breakdown, Cash Game picks, GPP strategy, cheat sheets and custom projections from our own AETY model that has produced big wins for Jason and the creator, Stix, the last two weeks.
We also will have news that will potentially open up some crazy value for us as the week goes on – but all that is why this first look is SO important. Getting an idea of where you need to focus as the week goes on is huge – it helps you drown out the noise and focus on the process.
Think back to last week – we started the week and Picks And Pivots with a focus on high dollar stacks like Arizona/Seattle but the issue was was that these stacks cost a ton and we needed value.
Now enter Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams value and boom – the builds unfolded as we wanted.
So think about this week – we have 5-6 studs that feel like priority pay ups but we need value to make it work and while the Raiders/Browns are one early path – what other options open up during the week to help us get to where we want?
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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