Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 7
Welcome back to Week 7 of the NFL season and after a massive week for the Win Daily Family including a $200K+ day for our NFL Director and creator of our projections model (AETY), StixPicks, which included winning a seat to the DraftKings Live Final – well, safe to say – we have some big shoes to fill coming off that kind of success in our NFL DFS picks.
Now before we look ahead to Week 7, I think it is a critical part of our process that we look back to Week 6 and the winning formulas used for tournament play. TJ Hernandez from 4 for 4 Football, put out a really succinct data point earlier this week, highlighting the roster construction used in the Milly Maker and this is a point we touched on last week – so I wanted to bring it back one more time.
What we talked about last week is how critical the 3-1 core stack was on DraftKings as that three-player passing stack from the same team with an opposing pass-catcher run back has been on the winning Milly maker team now in 4 of the 6 weeks of the 2020 NFL season.
What I also find interesting is that the need to correlate and build secondary stacks is becoming more important as we move forward as secondary and even tertiary stacks have been at the base of the winning builds these last three weeks, with the number of correlated players in builds on DK now sitting at 6-7 which is at least 2/3 of your 9 man DraftKings roster.
Now as Stix pointed out in our FREE DISCORD earlier this week, chasing the Milly Maker builds isn’t necessarily the key path – much depends on the contest size and selection – the larger the GPP, the more these correlations matter. However, do not simply think that you can ignore these correlations – as proof, I looked back at the winning GPP build in the $50 Single Entry on DraftKings and we still saw 5 of the 9 players with correlation.
The $50K SE winner used a similar Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Justin Jefferson build (as did the Milly winner) and had a correlated Myles Gaskin/Dolphins DST to add to their line-up – proving out how critical finding this correlated core is to winning DFS tournaments no matter the size or structure.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Time to Stack:
First and foremost, in GPP builds – no matter the contest size and selection – we need to anchor to our passing game stack as our first key decision point as this week, I think we have five stacks that we can argue sit at the heart of our player pool for our NFL DFS picks.
UPDATE – We have a change in the NFL schedule (again) – and the DFS slates have opted to do things a bit different (shocker). DraftKings is keeping Seattle/Arizona on the Main Slate and adding TB/LV to the Main while FanDuel is NOT adding TB/LV but keeping Seattle/Arizona – got it? Good.
In looking at the stacks below, what I found interesting as I started to build line-ups was how the pricing and bang for your buck really started to help bring clarity to how to attack these high-flying passing attacks.
- Packers: Rodgers/Jones/Adams – $4.6K per player remaining
- Seahawks: Russ/DK/Lockett – $4.7K per player remaining
- Cardinals: Murray/Hopkins/Kirk – $5K per player remaining
- Chiefs: Mahomes/Hill/Kelce – $5K per player remaining
- Texans: Watson/Fuller/Cooks – $5.2K per player remaining
Peeking around at early ownership, it will likely not surprise you to see the pass catcher’s in these games commanding the top ownership marks as Adams, Hopkins, DK and Metcalf are 4 of the 6 highest projected WR’s while Kelce is the highest projected owned TE by a significant margin.
Now the issue, as you can see above, is that the pricing on these stacks is going to leave you very Stars/Scrubs heavy and we haven’t even added in the “run-backs” yet. So let’s take it one step further and add in the logical run-backs in a 3/1 core stack.
- Packers: Rodgers/Jones/Adams and Fuller- $4.2K per player remaining
- Seahawks: Russ/DK/Lockett and Hopkins – $4.0K per player remaining
- Cardinals: Murray/Hopkins/Kirk and DK – $4.5K per player remaining
- Texans: Watson/Fuller/Cooks and Adams – $4.7K per player remaining
When you add in the “run-back” pass-catcher on the other side of these high-octane match-ups the pricing gets even more challenging – really starting to challenge the effectiveness of these top-heavy builds.
Update: The injury to Aaron Jones who is officially listed as a GTD but sounds more doubtful to play, makes the Packers stack now one of the more affordable ones on the board. While Rodgers/Adams are pricey – tacking on either Valdes-Scantling or either Williams/Dillon at $4K price points will leave you with $5.2K per player. If you opt to run this back with the most expensive Texans piece (Fuller at $6.8K) – you still have $4.8K remaining for the rest of your build.
What that brings me back to however is the Kansas City Chiefs who may not have the lofty Vegas game total (under 50) and have the added “blow-out” risk with a 10 point spread against the Denver Broncos but the pricing – oh the pricing. Add in the fact we have cold weather and snow, and my guess is folks will opt for the “easier” paths when looking to stack which could give us a massive opportunity for the KC aerial attack. If the projections hold – this 3 man passing stack is going to have combined ownership in single digits which makes them the ideal GPP pivot on this chalktastic slate.
We mentioned above how the Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack will leave you with $5K per player and where the difference really comes into play when compared to the other stacks mentioned – is how the cheap run-backs on the Denver side can really open things for the rest of your roster.
I mention this every week, but your stacks/builds need to tell a story and the story here with Kansas City is going to be a positive game script where they get out to a lead behind their passing attack, and Denver is forced to throw to keep up. The Broncos this season throw at the second-highest rate of any team in the NFL when trailing – so buckle up Drew Lock – you are going to start slinging.
The Denver WR duo of Jerry Jeudy/Tim Patrick cost just $5.1K and $4.6K respectively and if you add Patrick as an example into a KC stack, you would still have $5.1K per player remaining which is far more than any of the stacks mentioned above – even the Aaron Jones-less Packers stack.
Patrick has been busy – really busy – the last two weeks against the Jets and Patriots, with 7 targets, 113 yards/1 TD and 26 DK points against NY and 8 targets for 101 yards and 17 DK points against the Pats.
The Chiefs play at one of the fastest paces in the NFL even when in a positive game script so the Broncos passing game looks like an elite run back as they should be getting the ball back quickly and do not have to “worry” necessarily about the opposing team just sitting on the ball and running out the clock.
Now, that being said – those who watched the MNF game against the Bills may say, but wait – we just saw the Chiefs ride CEH into the ground once they got up on Buffalo. That is true – but honestly, I think that was more a “what was working” game flow rather than a game script trend – and with that recency bias in people’s heads – I do wonder if the Chiefs passing game gets a bit over-looked.
If we look back at other games this year where KC got up early the “trends” have not been all run-heavy approaches. Look back at Week 3 against Baltimore where KC was up 27-10 at the half and still had Mahomes throw the ball 42 times!
Denver has actually given up the third fewest DK points this year to opposing RB’s and so if the Chiefs stick with the approach of “attack the weakness” – then even in a positive game script, I would expect the passing game to still get to their DFS ceiling.
And if you need any evidence that this Broncos passing D is their weakness – look back two games ago against the Jets where the vaunted trio of Darnold/Crowder/Jeff Smith dropped 60 DK points on them. So yeah – I think Mahomes and Co. has a path to a ceiling here!
Last but not least in our reasons to stack Kansas City – the Chiefs have the second-highest adjusted offensive total in our Adjusted Totals Tool – which has been, well another fire Stix creation – adjusting Vegas totals to remove fantasy irrelevant positions like kickers.
Listen so what does this all mean? – this was a very long-winded way of laying out why the most explosive offense in football is an awesome GPP stack for Week 7. It may seem simplistic to put it that way – but I really believe that in weekly DFS where we have days and days to tinker – that we overthink our decisions as a DFS community.
If you stop and look at our projections at Win Daily, you will see that Mahomes is projected for a top 3 QB score, while Kelce is the clear TE #1 and Hill projects for a top 10 WR day. So you are getting a single-digit owned elite stack, projected for top 10 performance and people aren’t on them why?
Are there sexier spots on the slate? Maybe. Are we all so sure Arizona/Seattle is a can’t miss chalk game stack? Is Houston/Green Bay as attractive now that we look likely to lose on of the ceiling stars in Aaron Jones?
Are we over-reacting to some snow? Guys its 2-4 inches with single digit winds – this isn’t the Great Blizzard we are talking about here. Go back to Week 15 last year, KC versus Denver – Mahomes throws for 340 yards and the trio of Mahomes/Kelce/Hill puts up 75+ DK points in a 23-3 win over Denver.
I believe we need to plant our flag in DFS and for me – this KC passing attack is exactly how I intend to do so.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Time to Pivot!
With a Chiefs/Broncos 3/1 set up in our core, it really allows us some serious salary spends at other positions – another reason I love it for my DK builds – and what it may allow is for us to get pieces from the high-scoring Hawks/Cards and Packers/Texans that give us leverage paths off the passing game popularity.
We have very recent examples where Seattle is in a high projected scoring match-up with ownership expected to follow, as we saw this against Miami two games ago. Now while Russell Wilson still threw for 300+ yards and DK Metcalf racked up 100+ yards – overall, the stack failed to reach its DFS ceiling because much of the touchdown equity was stolen by RB Chris Carson who grabbed 2 TD’s in that outing.
On the Arizona side of this game, we all know the explosive play-making power of Murray and the passing game, but we also have seen that Arizona will go run-heavy in neutral game scripts and even more recently in positive game scripts as we saw against Dallas on MNF when Kenyan Drake went for 160+ and 2 TD’s including his late-game slate breaker.
While the Vegas total here is the highest in the slate at 57 as of this writing, it is worth noting that Seattle is actually one of the slowest paced teams in the league and while Arizona overall is one of the fastest, in negative game scripts they drop back considerably and fall into the middle of the league.
So how can we find the leverage? What if Seattle opts to play this game slower, relying on the run and giving Chris Carson ($6.4K) the touchdown equity that becomes direct leverage off Wilson and the passing game? Will Arizona keep feeding a far too cheap Kenyan Drake ($4.8K) after his breakout game on Monday – and keep the ball and fantasy points away from the passing game?
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: The one-off key decisions
Last but not least – injuries have throw this slate upside down and it has pushed us into a corner in our decision making.
The injuries to Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon and likely Aaron Jones have concentrated the ownership heavily on guys like Alvin Kamara, Gio Bernard and Williams/Adams.
What the Jones injury has also done is pushed ownership at the RB to Kareem Hunt and as Stix pointed out in his GPP Article this week (a must-read) the RB trio on DK of Kamara/Gio/Hunt will be a highly popular stacking option at the RB/Flex positions.
Now before you go and scream – FADE THE CHALK. Remember last week – the Milly Maker winner went with a 3/1 passing stack of the chalky Minnesota/Atlanta game and the $50 SE winner added on with a chalky Gaskin/Miami DST secondary stack.
Sometimes – the chalk is the chalk for a reason.
So rather than argue the fade of plays like Kamara, Hunt or Gio – eat the chalk and let the field make the mistake if trying to pivot. Then – back to the KC/Denver stack – find your way to pivot slightly off the field with the same core in your NFL DFS Picks,
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
This week took a crazy amount of twists and turns in our NFL DFS Picks as injuries forced us to change course multiple times.
What this means, is we likely see some serious chalk both at the top end (Kamara) and with the value (Gio & GB RB’s) – which sets us up to find paths to be different in GPP’s.
Remember – you don’t have to put 9 guys in your DK lineup that are “GPP plays” – not every play has to be a pivot off the chalk. So go ahead and eat some of that Kamra/Hunt chalk this week – there are enough paths to be different here in the passing game and that is where you will find your chance to jump the field.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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