Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 6 MNF
Happy Monday my friends – after a huge week for the Win Daily family, specifically our very own StixPicks who took down GPP’s and punched his ticket to the DraftKings live final with a huge week.
There is nothing better than jumping into Discord on Sunday evening and seeing the profit at every level from our team and members – but hey, we get a two game MNF slate to break down as well,so why stop with just Sunday?
Looking back at last week’s two-game slate (BUF/TEN and NO/LAC) – there are some interesting takeaways from the roster builds of GPP winners that I think we need to revisit.
The winning line-ups went with more of an “onslaught” type stack – using Tannehill, Henry, Jonnu AND AJ Brown with a lone Stefon Diggs run back and correlated the second game with a Kamara/NO DST build.
I think that concept could end up being a repeat winner here tonight especially with two games that have some serious shootout potential.
So how can we leverage the game theory to optimize our tournament focused builds?
After the Titans dropped 42 on the Bills last week, it is no surprise to see the Kansas City Chiefs with the highest implied total and the AETT model from Stix supports the Chiefs onslaught with a 25.11 total which is nearly 4 points higher than the next closest team (Arizona).
Now when looking at ownership and position scarcity, it is no surprise to see Travis Kelce dominating the ownership at a weak TE position, and when you sync that up with Patrick Mahomes being the highest projected owned QB and Tyreek Hill coming in top 3 WR ownership – you start to see where the chalky stack will land. Add on the injury to Sammy Watkins which makes Mecole Hardman the “value play of the day” and the Chiefs passing attack looks like the cash game building block especially after seeing what Tannehill and company did last week.
Well – much like we argued last week when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the chalk – why not pivot to the direct in-game leverage? Except for this week, we have the inverse situation where using CEH may give you the direct leverage off the chalky KC passing stack.
Talking with Stix this morning, it is interesting that CEH has -200 odds to score a TD tonight which is second among all RB’s tonight behind only Ezekiel Elliot (-335) so can we take the approach in a cold/windy/rainy Buffalo that the Chiefs get a game script that becomes run-heavy and keeps the KC passing attack from hitting its ceiling?
Now not only would we need to hit the KC leverage correctly, but I think we need to have a main stack that can keep pace with the Chiefs passing attack even in a down game. Use Week 1 as an example – even in a game where KC was up 24-7 on Houston by the third quarter – where CEH ran the ball 25 times – it wasn’t like Mahomes/Hill/Kelce were kept scoreless – in fact, they still managed to rack up 52 DK points even when the game script was not necessarily in their favor.
So simply “fading” the Chiefs QB/WR/TE stack is not enough – you need to make sure whatever passing stack you do use, can hit – and hit big.
That leads me to the Arizona Cardinals against the Dallas Cowboys “defense.” Arizona has the second-highest AETT in Stix model and attacking this Cowboys secondary has been a profitable endeavor with talented offenses in 2020.
Go back to Seattle just a few weeks ago where Russell Wilson (40 DK points) threw 4 TD’s and we saw both DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket have ceiling games with 63 combined WR points. That is the kind of upside we would need to A) match the Chiefs passing and/or B) be the pivot off them – the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
The nice part about Arizona – we know where the production starts – and it is with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins but I think on a two-game slate you can take the full onslaught approach and add in the secondary WR’s like Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald.
These two have combined for double-digit targets in 3 of the first 5 games for Arizona including 14 total targets last week. Think about it this way – the combined salary for these two is $8.2K on DK – if I told you – you could pay $8K for a WR with 10-14 targets against the putrid Dallas secondary – wouldn’t you lock in that player?
Granted this is two players – but can we play Larry Kirk or Christian Fitzgerald (take your pick) and take the combined production alongside Hopkins for all that glorious Cardinals passing equity?
Now going full-on Arizona onslaught requires some run back and Dallas has the obvious in Zeke at a weak RB position but I don’t think you have to stop there considering the Dallas pricing. Lamb/Cooper under $6K gives you two viable options in the simple game script that Dallas has to throw to stay in this game and I think you can even expand to Dalton Schultz who has 6,8 and 10 targets over this last 4 games for Dallas.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Go back to where we started – the look back at last week’s 2 gamer and what worked. Can we go with an offensive onslaught and then a RB/DST correlation?
You can absolutely find builds to support that but whatever you do – make sure your lineup tells a story. That is the most critical thing in a short slate like this – pick the story and not the players.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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