Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 6
For those of you in the NFL Win Daily family who may not know me from MLB and NBA – allow me to give you this context before we dive in – I do not play cash games, I never have and I never will – I play GPP’s and GPP’s alone.
Now, that is terrible bankroll management. Let’s be clear about that. There is a reason Stix and the other experts here preach cash games for long term bankroll success and in MLB/NBA, I have followed that strategy all through my DFS career.
NFL I approach entirely differently because NFL to me is not a daily fantasy sport – it is a series of 17 slates and so I am more than happy to take my shots and play for the big wins due to the sheer lack of volume that NFL DFS provides.
I say that because the purpose of Picks and Pivots is to think through that lense – and how we shoot for the big wins versus the min-cash/ long-term bankroll grind.
What really interests me this week is how concentrated the ownership will be and the fact that the direct leverage – is also chalk.
Looking at ownership – the Vikings duo of Alexander Mattison and Adam Thielen and the Titans duo of Derrick Henry and AJ Brown are projected to be 4 of the top 5 owned players on DraftKings and that makes for a really interesting approach.
Flip back to last week – we talked about this on the Sunday AM live stream – but with CEH chalk for the Chiefs and seeing how low-owned the Kansas City passing game was being projected for – it made all the sense in the world to take the direct in-game leverage and stack Mahomes/Hill/Kelce to get the leverage over CEH and if you followed that strategy as many of our team did – you won big. In fact, that exact Mahomes/Kelce/Hill stack was the core foundation of the Milly Maker winner.
I bring that up because this week – that direct leverage on the chalk backs is simply not there as the top WR’s are projected to be just as popular for the Vikings and Titans.
So you can take a few different approaches – 1) eat the chalk 2) fade all aspects entriely or 3) find the over-looked indirect leverage.
The whole reason you are here is for reason #3 – so let’s dive in.
The Atlanta/Minnesota game is likely the chalkiest game stack and for good reason – but rather than fade it entirely, is there a path here that gets you all the DFS upside and all the leverage? I think so.
How do you keep Minnesota’s offense off the field if you are Atlanta? Run the ball – and that is where Todd Gurley ($6.3K) could throw this game completely out of whack and ruin the chalk. As Adam Strangis noted in his FREE Game by Game Breakdown this week, no player in the NFL has more red-zone attempts than Mr. Gurley so for all the Matt Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones stacks – you can tilt them all by letting Gurley get all the TD equity here.
Now in this game script, you assume the Falcons can run the ball and control the Vikings offense but it still likely means Minnesota is in a negative game script and throwing to catch-up so why not pivot to Justin Jefferson ($6K) to get that Vikings leverage?
Jefferson has seen his snap count stay steady at 77%-80% for Minnesota in the last 3 weeks and after his dud last week, you can capture his 100+ yard upside at single-digit projected ownership this week.
Picks and Pivots: Time to stack:
Looking around the industry this week and listening to where people are looking to attack it sounds like the Miami Dolphins are a team that are on people’s radar as a secondary stack but not necessarily going to come in as any sort of overwhelming chalk.
In fact, looking at ownership the most popular Dolphins appear to be the Miles Gaskin/Dolphins DST stack which makes a ton of sense considering the opponent – the New York Jets.
So how do we get leverage there? Seems easy – go with the passing attack and a Fitzpatrick/Gesicki and either Parker/Williams three-man passing stack. We talked about this last week in Discord but every single milly maker winner this NFL season has had a 3 man passing stack in their builds and this one gives you some serious bang for your buck with their mid-range pricing. In fact, the value you can get from stacking this Miami passing trio allows you the ability to spend up on a high-priced stack that Stix and the AETT model are screaming for us to play – but more on that in a minute.
Outside of last week, the one trend we have seen is that the 3 man stacks have all been run back with 1 player from the opposing team – thankfully for the Jets, they only have one viable DFS player these days in Jamison Crowder who has back to back weeks of 10 targets and will be the easy game script run-back assuming Adam Gase and company fall behind and need to throw.
The other stack I am loving this week – the Joe Mixon/Cincy DST mini-stack.
Mixon sits in that sweet spot on DK just above chalkier options like David Montgomery and the aforementioned Gaskin. Mixon’s usage and volume are among the top marks in all of the NFL and any time you can get a player with this much concentrated usage at single digit ownership – it is the kind of play that can break the slate.
Now getting Mixon that ceiling and volume, likely comes with the positive game script and the fact you can pair him with a dirt cheap D like Cincy at $2.1K on DK is the perfect pairing to keep your salary allocated elsewhere.
Phillip Rivers is looking like a Pick 6 on lay away with this noodle armed wobblers that make Drew Brees look like hes Aroldis Chapman. If the Bengals D can jump Rivers, get some turnovers and you run it back with the Mixon usage – this combo could be a way to win big on Sunday.
Initially when I wrote down my thoughts for this article, I had highlighted the Green Bay/Tampa Bay game as a potential spot for GPP’s but I assumed with the national TV game and the slate high Vegas total at 55, it would be chalky so I moved on – but then I read Stix GPP breakdown and could not believe that outside of DaVante Adams, every player in this game was projected for single digit ownership. Huh?
As Stix said “Cheap exposure to the highest total game on this slate… sometimes good things like this just fall into our laps.”
Now this game is pricey and maybe that is why it is being over-looked – but if you use a Miami based stack and the Mixon/Cincy DST savings – you have ample opportunity to use your salary on the studs in the afternoon hammer!
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
With some serious chalk this week – it looks like the perfect time to think differently and find ways to not only leverage the chalk but find elite spots as pivots that could help us move off the field if/when the chalk busts.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
