Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 13 Monday Night Football
Happy Monday my Win Daily Family and Friends! After a massive day of football on Sunday, we wake up today with a unique Monday Night Football slate on tap with TWO games between Washington/Pittsburgh and Buffalo/San Francisco.
With this being a “Classic” format with another Millionaire Maker GPP on DraftKings, it becomes a fun slate to play with solid prize pools that we can attack in tournament play.
On a two game slate like this, it is far less about “playing the best plays” and far more important to play the right game theory and ownership – which in my mind, is what makes this slate so much fun.
I will say this also – the salary is super soft on DraftKings, especially with weak RB/TE positions which is going to allow you to get all the stars on the slate you want. Just realize everyone else will find this path too – so this could be the ideal slate to leave money on the table OR spend it differently.
When looking over this slate, I think what will stand out to most is we have two “name” offenses in the Steelers and Bills that will likely drive the far majority of ownership, and that all starts at the QB position with Josh Allen ($7.3K) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6.4K).
The argument for Allen is all about the rushing game which gives him a ceiling that frankly no other QB on this slate can approach. We have seen other rushing QB’s excel in this match-up against SF – Kyler (90 yds), Daniel Jones (49), Taysom (45) – so there is a floor/ceiling with Allen that makes him really appealing here tonight. The simple fact is no team has given up more rushing yards to opposing QB’s than San Francisco – seems like a good reason to eat the Allen chalk.
The other benefit with Allen – his stacking partners become really clear with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley – and there is a reason that trio is projected for massive chalk. The question becomes – fade it entirely or find ways to slightly pivot off it?
Big Ben meanwhile the throwing the football at an absurd volume, with 42+ attempts now in 4 straight games which include 51 passes in this disgusting Wednesday Afternoon “scrimmage” against the Ravens JV team.
The interesting aspect here tonight is that both chalky QB’s will be facing top 10 defenses in terms of QB fantasy points allowed so the match-ups could be reason to pivot. No QB on this slate has a better on paper match-up than 49ers QB Nick Mullens ($5.1K) against this Bills passing defense that has allowed – EVERY SINGLE QB (not named Sam Darnold) to rack up 20 or more DK points this season?
Mullens has been underwhelming in his starts at QB, with just one game over 20 DK points but in fairness, he also has not yet had a game with all his offensive weapons around him and Week 13 will be the first such instance as the 49ers welcomed back Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert last week and now get Brandon Aiyuk back – the healthiest this offense has been in weeks. The 49ers have a 23 implied point total as of this writing which os just 1-2 points behind the Bills/Steelers and this 49ers passing attack will clearly be the lowest owned stack of the lot.
Last week Deebo Samuel (6.1K) came back to 13 targets and 133 yards receiving against the Rams as the clear WR1 and run back with Mullens – but do not overlook the return of Brandon Aiyuk ($5.1K) who has hauled in 8 and 14 targets in the only two games he has played with Mullens this season (granted both were without Samuel).
You can opt to play this one of two ways – stack up Mullens with the SF WR’s OR use them as the run back in a game stack with the Bills chalk and hope that game shoots out and you get ceilings on both sides.
While QB and WR give you some viable pivot paths – the one position I think you may need to play it straight is at running back – where Antonio Gibson Raheem Mostert and Benny Snell all have large roles and high ceiling potential.
Snell played 71% of the snaps against Baltimore on Wednesday and if you are fading Big Ben and the Steelers passing game is the IDEAL leverage playing hoping that the Steelers get out in front and lean on the running game. The Snell/Steelers DST ($4.5K) mini-stack will be a highly popular correlated stack for good reason today.
Gibson and teammate Terry McLaurin are the two most interesting plays on this slate in my opinion because they have arguably two of the highest ceilings but the most difficult match-up against the elite Steelers DST. McLaurin could take the Hollywood Brown path from Wednesday – needing just one long pass to pay off his price tag and his dominance on the Washington target share makes him almost game script proof here tonight.
Gibson is the riskier path though, considering only one running back all year has managed to eclipse 16 DK points against the Steelers. The one promising aspect though – his passing game involvement materially improved last week as he saw a season-high 7 targets last week against Dallas. If Gibson gets that passing down work again then he becomes a really difficult fade for me at arguably the weakest position on the slate.
My Washington exposure though is really likely to be determined by ownership. Right now McLaurin is the second highest projected owned WR and Gibson is the chalk RB. Considering that only one RB has gone over 20 DK points and only 3 WR’s have eclipsed that mark against Pittsburgh this year – this feels like a spot where the chalk has a demonstrated path to bust and could be the small leverage we need.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
When you step back and look at this slate, I really think it comes down to finding paths to be different – and frankly, the paths to be different are TOUGH to find.
If you decide to play the chalkier passing stacks (Allen with Diggs/Beasley or Ben with Steelers WR) – where are you going to get different?
Because the WR pool is as deep as it is today, I think this is where you try and get different and that is what leads me to the San Fran passing game which is projected for the lowest ownership of any passing attack on the slate.
Today is a day to listen to the industry – watch ownership and make CALCULATED decisions on where and how to be different. Small slates like this are all about game theory and strategy – challenge yourself today to think differently.
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