Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 12 Primetime
After a monster Sunday for the Win Daily family with our NFL DFS Picks – we are back on Monday with back to back nights of Monday and Tuesday Night football which sets up for some Showdown/Primetime DFS to make it through early in the week.
Big shout out to RyMcNeil and all our subs who built around the Kansas City passing stack and turned big-time profits – we simply love to see it!
Let’s start with the Tuesday Night mess that is the Ravens/Steelers – the Thanksgiving nightcap which has been rescheduled to COVID outbreaks on both teams that have made this game a total disaster on both sides. With Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Marc Ingram, Willie Snead and a total of 22 players on the COVID-19 list, there is a reason Vegas has the Ravens with a FIFTEEN (15) implied total.
So now we get a banged-up team against an elite defense – one that put up 18 DK points against Baltimore just a few weeks ago on the back of 4 sacks, 2 fumbles and a TD – and locking in the Pittsburgh DST ($4.7K) seems like step one from this game.
With James Conner placed on the COVID list for the Steelers – this could be the Benny Snell Jr. ($4.9K) show and frankly that Snell/Pitt D mini-stack seems like the best possible correlation in an overall brutal game.
Now it is entirely possible this game gets moved again but the NFL just let the Broncos play a game without a Quarterback so I am not going to even pretend like I know what they will do – assuming this game plays, the safest route feels like getting Snell/Pittsburgh D and just pretending the rest of the game doesn’t exist.
The reality is – the Monday Night Football game between the Seahawks/Eagles is where our focus should be on this primetime slate and will make for a fun showdown slate (Yes Stix, I said a FUN showdown slate).
The Seahawks are coming into this game with their running back room as healthy as it has been in weeks with Chris Carson back, which pushes Carlos Hyde and DeeJay Does Dallas to backup roles.
Rather than sort through a crowded backfield rotation against an Eagles defense that has allowed just 2 running backs to eclipse 20 DK points this season – I would much rather focus my salary on the Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett trio.
On short slates like these – I want to focus my builds on the players that can break the slate and this Seahawks threesome is where I think you have the best chance of capturing ceiling games and you get the benefit of the QB-double stack to maximize the DFS output.
Seattle’s passing game is so highly concentrated on Metcalf/Lockett – they make up 80% of the WR targets this season and 50% overall and that is with players like Greg Olson (OUT) and David Moore (questionable) included. With Olson sidelined and Moore looking unlikely to play, it puts even more of the offensive focus on this duo and that star-power is a necessary building block on this smaller slate.
If Freddie Swain gets the start as the #3 WR in place of Moore, I am not sure we need him on the prime time slate but at $200 on the Showdown Slate, would become an elite value.
At this point, we all know the deal – no team gives up more fantasy points to opposing WR’s than Seattle so the trio of Travis Fulgham, Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward are all cheap runbacks in a game stack here. The concern I have with the Eagles passing game tonight is that Carson Wentz can’t hit the broad side of a barn and there are strong indications of an expanded role for Jalen Hurts this week.
The key to offenses in the NFL is consistency and continuity and using a two QB “gadget” system could really cap the upside for the Eagles passing game. As Ian Rapoport broke down, it sounds like a “rotating plays/series” scenario and that makes me really nervous as the game flow will be start/stop as they rotate QB’s in and out.
When the Philadelphia Eagles take the field on Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks, they will do so with Carson Wentz as their starting quarterback. But for the first time, sources say, the Philadelphia QB position will see a change.
Jalen Hurts is expected to receive increased playing time at quarterback, and unlike on previous snaps, Wentz won’t be on the field. It will be the first time in 2020 that this dynamic will take place.
It’s unlikely that Hurts, the second-round Heisman finalist from Oklahoma and Alabama, will get to take an entire series. More likely, it will be two or three plays at a time. But, based on the game plan and the week of practice, he should see his most significant snaps yet.
Ian Rapoport – NFL.com
Over the last 3 weeks the Eagles passing targets have been pretty sprad out with Fulgham (19), Reagor (18) and Ward (15) all getting strong target share and this could become a good mix and match situation based on your roster construction.
On the Primetime slate – Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert stand out as elite plays due to the position scarcity at RB/TE while they seem far less “necessary” on showdown as I think the Eagles WR’s give you solid Philly exposure at cheaper price points.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We say this every week in Discord but it bears repeating – Showdowns/Primetime slates are volatile bankroll drainers if you over extend yourself.
The key to these slates in my opinion – take stands and predict game scripts versus predicting player output.
As an example – if Miles Sanders is popular, take the leverage and play Boston Scott who took 40% of the snap count last week. If you think the Eagles struggle – go with a Seahawks onslaught stack and use their DST as direct leverage on the Eagles offense etc.
Have fun with these slates – take some tourney shots- but if you are playing for bankroll building or safety – just go ahead and withdraw now. These are dart throws and they have massive boom/bust potential.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
