Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 – A Look Back:
Week 10 was one of the more bizarre NFL DFS weeks we have had this season with uncharacteristically low cash lines for almost the entirety of the slate. With just minutes left in the late games, cash lines were just above 120 DK points in most tournament’s and it was not until the last minute of the Arizona/Buffalo game which saw Allen/Diggs and Murray/Hopkins take down touchdowns at high ownership, that scores really shot up at all.
Looking back at the Milly Maker winner in Week 10, there were some similarities to the previous week’s winners that are worth pointing out. “Meaganjoy” used a Kyler/Hopkins passing stack and ran it back with Cole Beasley in what was ultimately the only correlation they had. They did however continue with the trend of using multiple value pieces in Josh Reynolds and a punt TE in Logan Thomas which has been a trend we have seen nearly every week.
I will say, I am more inclined to go with the larger data set this season which has shown more correlation by and large HOWEVER, the last two weeks the Milly Maker winner’s have toned that back to a degree so it will be a short term trend that needs to be monitored.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 11 First Look:
At first glance at this Week 11 pre-Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate, what we find is that we are missing many of the marquee names as the Primetime games have taken away Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson on Thursday Night with Patrick Mahomes and company playing the Sunday Night Football game against the Raiders.
Now it does not mean we are devoid of options in our NFL DFS Picks, and in fact, there are a boatload of injuries that will likely shape some significant value as we head towards Sunday.
Looking at the team totals early in the week, the Falcons/Saints game stands out with a 50+ implied team total and some big-time injury news that could/should open up value. With Drew Brees sidelined, it opens up Jameis Winston and Tayson Hill as cheap QB’s, while the Falcons continue to await the return of Calvin Ridley in their WR room.
Brees is not the only QB with an injury tag heading into Week 11 – as Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford and Drew Lock are also questionable with the potential to sit out this week’s action.
On the Running Back side, Christian McCaffery is questionable to return after sitting out Week 10 and don’t worry DFS player, Mike Davis is not $4K any more so we do not have to play the “should we fade the chalk” game here.
The other early big name to watch is Joe Mixon, who remains questionable with a foot injury that has opened the door for Giovani Bernard ($5.5K) to take over as the RB1 for the Bengals. After a tough match-up against Pittsburgh last week, this could be a great get-right spot against Washington – oh, and one more little thing. Sunday is Gio’s birthday so fire up the mustache birthday narrative my friends. It never fails.
On the pass-catcher side, we could get some serious value here as players make their way back from injury – and I think savvy DFS players need to be on the lookout for mispriced bargains. The one name that really jumped out to me early was Zach Ertz ($3.7K) who has been designated to return after a high ankle sprain back in Week 6. Tight end is a wasteland again this week which is going to push us to pay down at the position and if a consistent double-digit target threat like Ertz is available to us at this price point – I am all over it.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 11 Stacks:
I am writing this on Tuesday morning as a first look, and so the amount of things that can change before we get to Sunday are vast – but I am a believer in the value of this first look – a clear eyed view of the slate before the news comes rolling in and we get inundated with fantasy football group think.
The one game that really jumped out to me at first glance was the Packers/Colts – a game with a 50+ implied total here at the open and one that checks a whole lot of boxes. First and foremost – we have star power on the Packers side with Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams who week in and week out just continue to deliver at a high level.
Adams was targeted 12 times against Jacksonville, hauled in a spectacular touchdown and even in a “down game” still made his way to 20 DK points. Rodgers was largely ignored all of last week and he ended up around 5% owned in GPP’s – and proceeded to drop 30 DK points with 3 TD’s – just continuing to produce while everyone flocks towards the shiny new QB’s as their DFS toys.
I do wonder how this week will flush out at QB because without Mahomes, Kyler and Russ – we are looking at a player pool that has Lamar Jackson and Rodgers up top and Justin Herbert as the third most expensive QB on the slate! With the injuries we noted above, I wonder if QB will be a pay down position for many – which once again could leave A-Aron, largely over-looked.
Last but not least – Aaron Jones ($7.2K) – the can’t miss RB1 from Week 10 who well, missed. Now 15 DK points was not the end of the world, but it certainly was not the SMASH SPOT that the DFS community was willing to eat the chalk on. Watch this week as Jones gets totally ignored as recency bias rears its ugly head and then when he goes off against the Colts and you scroll through DFS Twitter as everyone tilts – “of course when I don’t play him he does this!”
What really stands out to me is the Indy side of this game and that is largely due to the pricing on the Colts skill position players. The top two WR’s – Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton are both sitting at $4K price points and Jack Doyle ($2.5K) could return this week as a minimum priced tight end.
Pittman was the lead dog in terms of targets last week with 8 and now much of the Colts WR interest will depend on the status of Packers shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, who missed last week due to a concussion. With Alexander sidelined, we saw Jacksonville was able to move the ball through the air with cheap plays like Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. If Alexander were to sit again – this Colts passing attack would get a major boost and become an elite PP/$ stack with no pass-catcher over $5K on DraftKings.
One of the reasons we need/want the savings – well, we have some SERIOUS pay up RB options to build around with Alvin Kamara against Atlanta and Dalvin Cook against the Cowboys.
There is a reason both players are sitting at $9K or more – they will be popular priority spends and rightfully so. However, these are the kinds of players and match-ups you want to anchor to and it is one of the reasons that finding 1-2 punt values is a critical part of our process every week.
I think going into this week, locking in one – if not both – will be a cash game staple and a scary GPP fade – but early on, I have no issue locking them into my dummy lineups and simply waiting on the 1-2 value plays to open up – because guess what – THEY ALWAYS DO.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We have 11 games on this Main Slate for Sunday with it setting up more traditionally, with 7 of the 11 being 1 PM EST starts. Heading into the week, the priority is going to be finding ways to pay up at RB (Kamara & Dalvin) but balancing that with high upside passing stacks.
I think as the week unfolds, we will see the value across positions with QB being a spot that could open up a really clear cash game path.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Oh and by the way, we have a massive Black Friday deal coming – so stay tuned!
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