Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 – A Look Back:
As we do every week, the first thing I do in my NFL DFS process is to look back at the previous week’s winning lineups and trends as I am a firm believer that the only way to get better going forward, is to look back and what worked and what did not.
As you can see above, Week 9 was really good to me and I hope those of you who followed along with Picks and Pivots saw similar success as once again we saw the Stars and Scrubs build really pay off and this trend has been a consistent one on DraftKings week after week.
If you missed it – I did a FREE lineup breakdown and review on my Week 9 build on our Win Daily Sports Week in Review show – check it out below!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 First Look:
As we head into Week 10, I want to keep at the forefront of my roster construction, the very simple concept of Stars and Scrubs and how that needs to be at the core of my decision making process. Anchoring to a handful of stars with massive ceilings, can build you a foundation in DFS that gives you multiple paths to big profit and so rather than simply “picking plays” – I want to keep this concept above all else.
We have six of the eleven games on this slate with 50+ implied totals as of this writing so we clearly have a large player pool to sort through in advantageous game environments and there is an argument to be made to simply limit our exposure to these elite games and their stars.
The very first stop for me every week in my NFL DFS journey is to go to our Adjusted Expected Team Totals page and see which teams are poised for the biggest fantasy specific success. This tool is something unique to Win Daily that our man Stix has built out and it takes Vegas team totals and adjusts it for DFS only relevance, excluding points scored by non-skill position players to give us an idea on the offenses to target. This tool was screaming to play the Kansas City offense last week – and well, that worked out quite nicely now didn’t it?
The Seahawks/Rams sit among the slate leaders in the AETT model and with a Vegas game total above 55 fantasy points it is not hard to see why. The Bills/Cardinals have a similarly lofty Vegas total of 55-56 points and both of these teams find themselves popping in the early AETT model as well – and what that leads me to focus on here is the Quarterback options as this could be a week where spending up for Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen becomes a key decision point right away.
These two games check all the boxes – we have high game totals, tight spreads (1-2 points) and all the star power we so desperately crave in DFS tournament play so I think these two games become foundation pieces in your player pool.
What intrigues me though as a GPP player is the pivots off this game – and to find that, you need to check a few boxes – 1) Need similarly high totals with 2) Star power that can match the other games.
All that leads me to the Green Bay Packers who take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in Lambeau Field. But before we dive in here – let’s take one more look back.
Two weeks ago the Kansas City Chiefs passing stack was in the Milly Maker lineup as Mahomes and company dropped a bajillion points on the hapless New York Jets and last week, the KC aerial attack was the low-owned core that helped me win big against the Panthers.
I bring them up because the last two weeks, Kansas City has been the highest individual team total but seemingly over-looked due to double-digit spreads against the Jets and Panthers. So is the DFS community over-looking the “top offense” in games that Vegas expects to be one-sided?
So back to this week – while Buffalo/Arizona and Seattle/Rams have high totals and close spreads – will that lead to concentrated ownership in “safer” game environments and all the while we overlook the fact that Green Bay has the highest team total at 33 points, albeit with a 14 point spread.
If we look at the AETT model here at WinDaily you will see that Green Bay has the highest individual team total for fantasy production by a wide margin – and as Adam Strangis wrote up in his FREE Game by Game Breakdown – the match-up for this Green Bay offense is screaming upside at the key skill positions for the Packers.
So sure, are we worried Jacksonville will keep it close? Maybe – but when dynamic offenses are projected for big days are we really worried about the game staying close if the big players drop massive days before they depart?
We saw it two weeks ago with Mahomes where he tossed 5 TD passes against the Jets and was resting comfortably on the bench by the 4th quarter – did it matter the Jets could not keep it close – not one bit.
If Green Bay is going to go off in this game, the beautiful part is we basically know where it is coming from – and that is the star-studded trio of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and DaVante Adams. This three-man core has the DFS upside to match any and all combinations you may find from the other high total games and if they can do so at a fraction of the ownership – well, you are finding a similar path to success as we had in Week 9.
Running it back with Jacksonville can come in a few ways – you can assume a pass-heavy script with DJ Chark after his 12 target effort last week with Jake Luton under center or even Win Daily favorite, Laviska Shenault who at $3.8K could become a cheap run back that opens up a whole lot for our builds! UPDATE – Shenault has been ruled OUT.
In fact, the Jaguars passing attack in of itself gives us a ton of value with Tyler Eiffert ($2.7K) who had 5 targets last week and if Shenault were not able to play due to a hamstring injury, it could open up Chris Conley ($3K) once again to be a big part of the Jags passing game where he had 8 targets a week ago after Shenault left in the first quarter. With Shenault now confirmed out – Conley/Eiffert becomes a great value pairing in a GB/JAX game stack.
The other way to attack this is where the Packers are weakest, and that is in the run game – with James Robinson ($6.8K). This becomes an interesting game theory/script discussion because if Robinson and the Jaguars can keep this game close, using the running game to get up early – it would force the Packers in a negative/neutral game script to keep throwing.
This game script was exactly what we outlined last week with Carolina/KC where the Panthers got up early with an early long drive and CMC score – and that could be a similar path that leads to the ceiling on both sides this week. Robinson also gives us a path to value in the passing game as he is averaging over 4 targets per game and has three games with 6 or more targets so far this season.
The only argument off this game is going to be the spread and the blowout risk and I think that will make people anchor to the “safer games” in Buffalo/Arizona and Seattle/LAR – setting the Packers/Jaguars up to be a GPP difference maker.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 10 Values:
The key to this slate in my opinion is going to be the status of Christian McCaffery and by extension – the role of Mike Davis ($4K). CMC returned last game against KC but is now questionable with a shoulder injury which could put Davis back in a lead dog role and thank you to DraftKings for moving him back to minimum price.
This is the kind of value that opens up the Stars and Scrubs paths we have seen win GPP’s week in and week out. Remember a few weeks back when we had Gio Bernard and Jamaal Williams at $4K in RB1 roles? This is the path that Davis COULD provide for us once again.
This becomes far less about the “play” and far more about what it means for our roster construction as we can take essentially a “Free Square” with Davis and allocate our salary to fitting in 4-5 stars in our builds.
I am sure people will argue the fade because of “chalk” and blah blah blah – but go back to Week 7 when Williams was $4K chalk, put up his 20 DK points and was a key in the Milly Maker builds. We say it all the time, but winning tournament lineups are largely built around chalk with a few pivots – it is NOT about getting 9 low-owned guys in your builds.
So the CMC news is paramount this week because it gives you the immediate path to a cheap RB1 and a Stars and Scrubs build. Start your builds with Davis this week and if we have to adjust as the week goes on, so be it – we know the value will open up as we approach Sunday. At this point CMC has a Doubtful tag so just eat the chalk here with Davis and move on.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Another week of Stars and Scrubs for me and with multiple high-end games to build around, I think that path is optimal for Week 10.
Now, this is a first look article, written on Wednesday morning, so things can change HOWEVER I love having a dummy build with 2-3 value plays in it to start the week where I can get ideas of how a top-heavy build could work come Sunday.
We do not need to lock in our lineup days in advance but having a path to follow, allows you to focus on finding those 2-3 value plays over the next few days versus waiting entirely to build until the weekend.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
