Adam Strangis 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday-Thursday Night Football Slate
What is UP boys and girls? Wow, what a weekend!
First and foremost a HUGE shoutout to our PGA DFS team which absolutely crushed The Masters coverage and led to massive green screens for our very own Stix and Sia as you can see above.
Sunday’s NFL slate was simply wild as the cash line was depressed almost the entire day and the late flurry of scoring in the popular Arizona/Buffalo game really changed the cash position for the entire field as a result. Our Adam Strangis does a great job of breaking down everything from Week 10 in our Cash Game Week in Review.
We are just a week out from Thanksgiving and a week full of football, but before we get there we actually get a solid Monday-Thursday slate we can play this week – really as a result of the marquee Arizona/Seattle match-up on Thursday Night Football.
The Monday Night Football game on this slate is the appetizer – and I use that term loosely – its more like the bread and butter they put on the table before a good meal – sure, it is there and you are hungry but as your Mom always said – don’t fill up on the bread.
That applies to NFL DFS this week as well – as in this two-game slate – your goal should be to minimize your exposure to the MNF game between the Vikings and Bears.
Using our Adjusted Expected Team Totals, we can see the Vikings rank among the highest projected on the week – comparable to the elite offenses we all wanted a part of on Sunday. Conversely, the Bears are by FAR the lowest team total on the board and it makes sense with David Montgomery sidelined and Allen Robsinson questionable with an injury that left him limited all week in practice.
The most “straight forward” path here may be to take the highest correlation pairing with Dalvin Cook ($8.7K) and the Vikings Defense ($2.7K) in what is projected to be a slow-paced game. If the model holds true and this game turns into a Vikings easy win, they can lean on the run and keep this one dimensional Bears offense throwing which would give added turnover upside to the DST.
In the context of the slate, I think it becomes the optimal pairing as well for two reasons. 1) Running back is a wasteland with Montgomery hurt and the Arizona/Seattle backfields being banged up/crowded and 2) Do we really want to play either defense in Thursday Night’s shootout?
By limiting our exposure to Monday Night, we can turn our full attention to one of the best games of Week 11 with the Seahawks and Cardinals in a rematch of a 37-34 shootout in Week 7. The Cardinals are coming off a CRAZY win against Buffalo and this view of the winning TD grab will NEVER get old:
This game is opening with a 56+ total which is two touchdowns more than the Monday Night snoozefest and where we are going to want the majority of our exposure.
Kyler Murray ($8K) is just an absolute DFS cheat code each week with his rushing upside and arsenal of weapons that resulted in 41 DK points the first time these two teams met. Russell Wilson ($7.2K) has had back to back subpar weeks but he did put up 35 DK points of his own back in Week 7 against Arizona so there merit to playing him as a pivot off the Murray chalk – but that is not an argument I think we really need to have – with how Kyler is playing right now, finding the $800 to get to him should be a priority on this slate.
In the Week 7 meeting, DeAndre Hopkins ($7.7K) put up 10 catches for 103 years and a TD on his way to 28 DK points, while Christian Kirk ($6.2K) went for 8/37 and 2 TD’s of his own for 20.7 DK points. Larry Fitzgerald ($4K) never feels like a play I set out on, but when you get a WR at this price point, playing 75%+ of the snaps in this offense with the high game total, it becomes a viable cheap path to get exposure to this passing attack.
We could get some value at Tight End as well in Arizona as Darrell Daniels left Sunday’s game with an injury which means Dan Arnold ($2.5K) would become the primary pass-catching TE (albeit in a limited role). He had 3 targets against Seattle the first time around, good for 2/57 and 7.7 DK points and had 4 targets on Sunday against Buffalo – good for 4/34 and 7.4 DK points which would return 3X value at his minimum price point this week.
The Seattle run back here starts with the WR’s – DK Metcalf (7.5K) and Tyler Lockett ($6.4K). If you remember back in Week 7,Lockett went nuclear – with 15 catches on TWENTY targets for 200 yards, 3 TD’s and 56 DK points.
Meanwhile, Metcalf was held to 2 catches for 23 yards and yet this week he is $200 more than he was in that match-up while Lockett is the same exact price. Considering the discount and the recent game logs, the ownership disparity should be stark which makes me want to pivot and go heavy on Metcalf as a way to get leverage off the Lockett ownership on a two-game slate.
One option would be to pay up for one of the stud Seahawks WR’s and pair them with a cheap David Moore ($3.7K) who will play the third WR role for this aerial attack and has found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games.
The running back situation on both teams is a muddled mess with Kenyan Drake back for Arizona and with the Seahawks banged up but I think we are going to need to get our RB2 exposure here with Dalvin Cook locked as our RB1.
Drake ($5.1K) and Chase Edmonds ($5K) are priced fairly on this slate and I think I would rather take the defined roles of the Arizona backs over the guessing game that is Seattle. Drake returned this past week and ran for 100 yards on 16 carries but Edmonds still found his way to 11 total touches which included 3 targets in the passing game.
I think the way you need to approach these backs is by predicting game script. If you think Arizona is going to be throwing – then Edmonds is the preferred target but I also think you can play out the game script where Arizona uses the passing game to get up, and then uses Drake as their “closer” to run out the clock in a positive game script.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We talk about this all the time in NFL DFS but our rosters need to “tell a story” and that is even more important in a short slate or a showdown.
This week I think you need to anchor to which stories you see playing out in each primetime game. On Monday Night Football, the data would have us heavily lean towards a Cook/Vikings slow-paced win over a undermanned Bears offense and all that leads to a shootout on Thursday Night Football.
The ownership should be heavily concentrated on the second game, so finding an in game pivot is going to be the key. Going Metcalf over Lockett, deciding on Drake or Edmonds of hitting which of the $2K tight ends will get you “there” – could be what determines your cash game position.
Good luck this week – let’s get set for Week 11!
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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