NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Wild Card Weekend

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their first week of the new year and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only six games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson – AETY’s overall QB1 on this Saturday-Sunday slate and the ONLY QB I’ll play in the Sunday only slate. Tennessee’s defense is absolutely dreadful (mainly against the pass and yes, Baltimore struggles via the pass, but I’m all in Lamar).
   
2. Josh Allen – We want a quarterbacks with rushing upside on this slate or we want a quarterback who is going to chuck it 38+ times. Josh Allen fits both of those molds. He’s an absolute elite play on any slate so there’s no reason to look elsewhere (ESPECIALLY ON THE SATURDAY SLATE).
   
   My only concern here is how Allen has never really performed well in a big game. He absolutely fell apart against a bad Houston defense in the playoffs last year. This Colts’ defense is much, much better than Houston was last year and they will capitalize on any mistakes Allen makes.
   
   Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger
   
   Cash Game Player Pool: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

1. Alvin Kamara – Easily the top play on the Weekend’s slate for me. Assuming he’s healthy and good to go, lock him in on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I still love him, but he may warrant a fade there if you’d rather spend your money elsewhere.
   
2. Derrick Henry – tough matchup against the 12th ranked run defense in terms of DVOA, but it’s Derrick Henry. He’s certainly not cheap, so if you’re using him, you’re going to need 100+ and a score on the ground because it’s impossible to get many other studs in your build with Henry in there.
   
3. Nyheim Hines (DraftKings) – On a small slate we need to get different and Hines is likely to be one of those guys for me. He has a floor of 10+ points and I like this game’s ability to be up pace.
   
   My strategy here is using a lot of Hines on the Saturday only slate and mix him in a little bit on full slate. Jonathan Taylor would be the stone cold lock for me in cash games, so don’t think I forgot about him.
   
4. Cam Akers – He’s going to be extremely popular at the low price points on both sites, but he’s one of two running backs on this slate who has 25-touch potential (Derrick Henry).
   
5. James Conner – Just a low owned, value play for the Saturday-Sunday slate. Cleveland really struggles to cover pass catching running backs and we know that’s Conner’s main role. If Pittsburgh gives him the goal-line work, Conner can be a difference maker in NFL DFS this weekend.
   
   Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones, Chris Carson
   
   Cash Game Player Pool: Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Nyheim Hines, James Conner

Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

1. Stefon Diggs – The most targeted player in the NFL in a win or go home playoff game… Indianapolis’ pass defense is one of the better in the NFL but they will be without starting cornerback, Rock Ya-Sin. I’m sure we’ll see a lot of zone defense concepts on Saturday with potential bracket coverage on Diggs, but his volume is second to none.
   
   I don’t think we can fade him at all on the Saturday only slate, but if you’re looking to get off of Diggs on the Saturday-Sunday, there’s a lot more options available to you on that Sunday slate. I personally, don’t think I can fade Diggs.
   
2. Michael Thomas – Simply way too cheap on both DraftKings and Fanduel and should have a very soft matchup on the inside of the Bears’ defense with Duke Shelley getting the start for an injured Buster Skrine. New Orleans is tied with Buffalo for the second highest implied team total on this slate, so I’m loving the idea of using Kamara and Thomas together.
   
3. Chris Godwin – With Mike Evans banged up and an excellent pass rush for Washington, this should be a blast from the pass type of gamescript for Tom Brady. Instead of Julian Edelman being the recipient of 10+ targets, Chris Godwin should be in line for a massive workload in the shorter, inside routes against Jimmy Moreland.
   
4. Tyler Lockett – I’ve been all over Lockett the past couple of weeks and it finally paid dividends last Sunday. I’m going right back to the well this weekend because I simply will not mess with Jaylen Ramsey.
   
5. Marquise Brown – We preach speedy wideouts against the Titans’ secondary every single week. Hollywood has been finding his form recently and should have plenty of opportunities in the highest total game on the weekend’s slate. When Hollywood lines up with Malcolm Butler, it’s going to be showtime.
   
6. Allen Robinson – Surprised Robinson is going to be so low in ownership this weekend in a game where the Bears will be chasing points all game long. I think Robinson is in for a big workload and finds a way to come up with 9-10 receptions against the weaker spot of a great, New Orleans defense.
   
7. Juju Smith-Schuster – M.J. Stewart is arguably the worst cover corner on this slate. JuJu is cheap and has looked like a new player since the whole dancing on the logos issue caught steam.
   
8. Zach Pascal / Michael Pittman – Cheap, un-owned exposure to the Colts-Bills game is something I’m extremely interested in. I likely will not make a Saturday-only lineup without one of these guys. Obviously, don’t use them both together, that’s just asking for trouble.
   
   On the full weekend slate, I’ll lower my exposure to them both significantly, but I still think this is a smash spot. Pascal opening the weekend with a 40.5 yard receiving prop against Bills’ nickel-corner, Taron Johnson is something I love to see. You just can’t find much better educated value at $3,700 on DraftKings.
   
   Honorable Mention: Diontae Johnson, Corey Davis, John Brown, Cooper Kupp (if Goff returns), Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight Ends (Cash and GPP)

1. Mark Andrews – Tennessee is dead last in DVOA against the tight-end and no one on this slate has the ceiling of Andrews. Andrews is far and away my top tight-end target this weekend.
   
2. Logan Thomas – Tight-end is a bit of a wasteland outside of Andrews and Thomas. Thomas is a stone cold lock for 8+ targets and I cannot ignore that type of volume.
   
   Honorable Mention: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Rob Gronkowski

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS lineups!

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