NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 9

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 9. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 9

1. Kansas City Chiefs (25.76)
2. Seattle Seahawks (24.21)
3. Minnesota Vikings (24.13)
4. Arizona Cardinals (22.77)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (22.63)
6. Houston Texans (22.43)
7. Buffalo Bills (21.83)
8. Los Angeles Chargers (21.04)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson – Welcome back, Mr. Wilson! Russell Wilson is once again the top quarterback in the AETY Model and I’ll be going right back to the well in this matchup at Buffalo with an expected total currently sitting at 55 points (highest on the slate).
   
   I don’t really care what his ownership is, he’s too consistent to fade. You know who to stack him up with.
   
2. Josh Allen – On the other side of Wilson this week is obviously, Josh Allen. The Seattle passing defense is atrocious and should be a perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen (who hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 6). Allen is projected to lead this slate in passing yards and like Wilson, it’s very easy to stack him up as the target share in Buffalo is rather condensed.
   
3. Lamar Jackson – Lamar Jackson is now priced under $7K on DraftKings… a day I didn’t think we’d ever see any time soon when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Yes, Indianapolis’ defense is extremely stout (ranked 3rd in overall defense DVOA), but I’ll always be interested in rostering Lamar Jackson when he’s likely under 5% owned… not to mention the salary relief he offers this week.
   
   I have Lamar projected to throw for his season high this week (which isn’t saying a whole lot) and it should finally lead to a big day for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (both priced down throughout the DFS industry this week). If Lamar can do his usually damage on the ground and pair that with a 220+ passing yard performance with a couple of TDs, he may very well be QB1 this week and no one is going to play him.
   
4. Justin Herbert – Give me all of the Justin Herbert this week as they host the Las Vegas Raiders and their 31st overall ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). You can carve this secondary up and also run it down their throats. If the Raiders can keep the pace in this game and keep it close (the game is currently posted as a pick-em on most sportsbooks), Herbert and company should have another monster game at home in the dome.
   
   Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

*Obviously, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chase Edmonds are in smash spots. They should be a heavy focus of yours in most lineups, but here are the guys I think are difference-making pivots off of the heavy chalk RBs*

1. Derrick Henry – All hail King Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher by a healthy margin. Derrick Henry is currently projected to be in the 5-10% ownership bracket here in Week 9 against a Bears’ defense that is much more beatable on the ground than via the pass.
   
   Having said that, the Bears sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of opposing running back yards per carry (4.3), but they are without one of their better run stoppers in Roy Robertson-Harris this week and that will not bode well against Tennessee’s top-ten rushing offense (7th overall in run offense efficiency).
   
   Yet again, Henry leads the AETY Model in projected rushing yards this week and leads the slate with (-240) odds to score. Ride him.
   
2. James Robinson – I was quite surprised to see how much James Robinson popped in the model this week as he certainly wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 9. The return of Chris Thompson may take some of the targets away from Robinson but I don’t think he poses much of a threat to the overall ceiling of Robinson this week (against Houston’s 27th ranked run defense who bleeds points to opposing running backs).
   
   With the rookie QB in Jake Luton making his debut, I expect Jacksonville to play a bit conservative and utilize Robinson as much as possible (check-downs, 20+ carriers, etc.) and that should lead to a very high floor and a potential ceiling game for Robinson in NFL DFS GPP lineups… as the Jaguars play catch-up to Houston all game long.
   
3. Christian McCaffrey – It’s Christian McCaffrey and he’s priced the lowest we’ll likely ever see him again. I say it time and time again the way to move the football against Kansas City is via the run (ranked 28th in run defense DVOA). He’s been out for quite some time and all reports say that was to ensure he’s 100% healthy when he comes back to football.
   
   That time is now and he’s going to be 5% owned… I’m in.
   
   Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines

Wide Receivers

1. Julio Jones – No AJ Bouye for Denver and likely no Calvin Ridley for Atlanta. Do I need to say much more? I really like this game’s chances of being an up-paced shootout with little-to-no defense at all. Julio is arguably the top wide receiver on this slate in that situation.
   
2. Tyler Lockett – Don’t care what his ownership is, I always love top-tier wide receivers in high-total games matchup up against Buffalo slot corner, Taron Johnson.
   
3. Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney – On the other side of Derrick Henry, I’m likely to rollout one of these Bears’ wide receivers. I love picking on Tennessee’s secondary and I low-key think this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. I obviously prefer Robinson, but Mooney is 100% a serviceable punt-play as they both will get their fair share to do damage against Adoree Jackson and slow, Malcolm Butler.
   
   With Jadeveon Clowney likely out for this game, the Titans’ awful pass rush is only going to be worse. Nick Foles should have plenty of time to get Robinson and Mooney the football (despite having tons of offensive line injuries themselves).
   
4. Justin Jefferson – The AETY Model loves the Vikings’ offense this week, so I’m likely to get a lot of exposure to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Most of my lineup builds do not allow me to afford Thielen, so I’m going to roll out a lot of 5% owned Justin Jefferson (who I honestly prefer over Thielen anyways).
   
   These Lions’ cornerbacks with or without Desmond Trufant have struggled all season long and that is not going to change in Week 9.
   
5. Marvin Jones – I have no idea how Marvin Jones isn’t projected for 40% ownership going up against Minnesota’s poor excuse for an NFL secondary. Cam Dantzler in coverage? Yikes. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Marvin Jones is going to be a core play for me everywhere this week.
   
6. Mike Williams – Alright, it’s time for the ballsy 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown, call of the week. This week, that guy is going to be Mike Williams. This dude always has slate-breaking potential with an insanely high average depth of target and a climbing target share with Justin Herbert.
   
   Obviously, Keenan Allen is Herbert’s boy, there is no denying that. But, as 25% of the field rushes to roster Keenan Allen, pivoting down to a much cheaper Mike Williams makes a lot of sense to me. You can also double-stack them with Herbert as well. If the Raiders can keep this game moving and keep it close, both of these wide receivers should have a field day against Trayvon Mullen, Lamarcus Joyner, and Nevin Lawson. These corners cannot contain the Chargers’ wideouts.
   
   Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce – It’s Travis Kelce.
   
2. Darren Waller – He’s going to be very popular, but the majority of my lineups are predicting a shootout between the Raiders and the Chargers. I’ll need a lot of production from Darren Waller in hopes that gamescript runs true.
   
3. TJ Hockenson – Similar to Marvin Jones, Hockenson should have a great bump up with Golladay out (in what’s already been a shocking amount of production in the 2020 season). I think this game will be a bit more up-paced than most think and most gamescripts come down to the Lions’ chasing points. That should bode well for both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson.
   
4. Hayden Hurst – The target share has been continuously climbing over the past few weeks and the salary has not. Without Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst should continue to see 6+ targets and boost in red-zone usage. This game is likely to be a shootout and I’ll have a lot of Hurst/Julio exposure.
   
   Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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