NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 5

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. Week 4 was a bit of a bust and I’m quite pissed on how we missed on so many players that I loved, but we will right the ship here in Week 5. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. DeShaun Watson – Absolutely in love with DeShaun Watson yet again for Week 5. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and Bill O’Brien is no longer calling the plays. At 5-10% ownership, I’ll roll out a lot of Watson this week.
   
   I love the Jaguars side of this ballgame as well so feel free to game-stack this one as many wats as you can.
   
2. Kyler Murray – Kyler is going to come in sub-5% ownership… Do we need to say more? I don’t love any Jets coming back on the other side to game stack it, but you could do worse than punting a Chris Herndon or Jeff Smith. I smell a 3-passing touchdown game from Kyler (in addition to his rushing upside). One of those TD’s will be to a low-owned Christian Kirk.
   
3. Gardner Minshew – Someone pinch me, I never write-up Gardner Minshew, but he looks damn good on the AETY Model this weekend. I love this games ability to shootout and go well over the high total 54 points. I’ll have more exposure to this game with Watson, but I’m going to have plenty of Minshew and these pass catchers as well.
   
   Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

1. James Robinson – More exposure to this HOU/JAX game is something I’m going to be very interested in. Houston’s defense is giving up ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and also giving up plenty of receptions to them. Robinson is a 3-down back in a great matchup in a game that I love to stack up.
   
2. James Conner – Philadelphia’s run defense ranks right there in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense DVOA, so it’s not like this is a matchup made in heaven. But, the AETY Model really likes Conner’s ability to rack up yardage here and he’s likely to be 5-8% owned on this slate. If you’re looking for a pivot off of CE/Hunt/Elliott, Conner has plenty of upside at 70% less ownership than the trio above.
   
3. Josh Jacobs – Kansas City’s run defense is not good with or without Chris Jones being healthy as they rank 27th in run DVOA. If Gruden has half a brain, he’s going to ride Jacobs into the ground to keep Mahomes and this is explosive offense off the field as long as possible. Look for Jacobs to have a 20+ point fantasy outing with 3-5 receptions. If he can get in the box, he’ll be a great addition to your GPP lineups.
   
4. Antonio Gibson – He’s $5K on DraftKings. I’ll need a lot of savings for most of my builds and Gibson is a player with a very unique skillset. If he can finally get some passing catching work with Mr. Dump-off, Kyle Allen, Gibson’s floor is realistically 3X value on this low salary.
   
   Honorable Mention: Todd Gurley

Wide Receivers

1. DeAndre Hopkins – a 10% owned Hopkins is all I should need to say. The Jets’ secondary is awful and Hopkins target share is second-to-nobody on this slate.
   
2. Tyreek Hill – I love to writeup speedy pass catchers against the Las Vegas secondary. Hill is projected in the top-5 for receiving yards this weekend in the AETY Model and should realistically be 15-20% owned in NFL DFS GPP tournaments… not 5-10%.
   
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Your weekly pick on Nickell Robey-Coleman addition to the GPP article. Schuster is way too talented and owns a massive size advantage over Robey-Coleman. With Darius Slay spending most of his day on the outside with Diontae Johnson, Smith-Schuster should be in a sneaky big day.
   
4. DJ Chark – More exposure to this JAX/HOU shootout. Bradley Roby started the season strongly against Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown, but I saw enough last week when Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen did whatever they wanted in the Minnesota passing attack. Chark is a main piece of my JAX/HOU game-stacks.
   
   Laviska Shenault is also in an incredible spot against Vernon Hargreaves. I’ll have a ton of him as well this weekend for the salary relief and high-floor.
   
5. Devante Parker – This is a game with a high total that no one seems to be talking about. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K (on DraftKings). That is something I look for every single week and this is a matchup where he can succeed in against a depleted 49ers’ secondary. You can mini-game stack him up with Kittle on the other side.
   
   Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Sammy Watkins, Isaiah Ford, Hollywood Brown, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce – he’s the best PPR tight-end in the NFL and absolutely dominates the Raiders, historically. While everyone jams in CEH, you can pivot to the Chiefs’ passing attack for some differentiation in your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
   
2. Darren Waller – On the other side of your Chiefs stacks, roll out Waller. Hell, you can go double tight-end with Kelce if you’d like. The Raiders are 11-point underdogs here and will be chasing points which bodes very well for their top receiver, Darren Waller.
   
3. Hayden Hurst – Everyone wants to stack up CAR/ATL, but no one is playing Hayden Hurst? Julio Jones is likely to miss this game and that’s going to open up plenty of opportunity for Hayden Hurst. He’s going to score a touchdown on Sunday.
   
4. Eric Ebron – The Eagles are giving up over 18 DraftKings points to opposing tight-ends. Ebron is a red-zone monster and should easily find the box in this matchup at a very low price point and little-to-no ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.
   
   Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Dalton Schultz

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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