NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 10

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 10. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 10

1. Arizona Cardinals (25.13)
2. Los Angeles Rams (24.36)
3. Green Bay Packers (24.15)
4. Buffalo Bills (22.33)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (21.98)
6. Seattle Seahawks (21.77)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson – With an ownership projection around 5-7%, I’m all aboard the Wilson train. Despite a very tough matchup against the Rams and their 9th ranked defense (in terms of pass DVOA), I don’t think there’s going to be much in the way to slow down Russ.
   
   This is one of the lowest weeks of combined ownership for Wilson/Lockett/Metcalf and I’ll be sure to have multiple combinations of the three and run it back with a Rams’ player or two. Quite frankly, I am really only interested in getting my stack exposure to this game and with Kyler Murray/Josh Allen in that 56 point total in Arizona.
   
2. Jared Goff – On the other side of Wilson, it’s wheels up for Jared Goff and this Rams’ passing attack. We pick on Seattle’s pass defense (ranked 29th in DVOA) every single week and there’s no reason to shy away now. The AETY Model has Jared Goff projected for 306 passing yards which is by far the highest on this slate. Great salary relief as well for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
   
   Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen

Running Backs

*Obviously, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara make a ton of sense to roster. With the weather and the savings, I prefer Aaron Jones, but we will see a bit of Jamaal Williams this week. I do not think either of these guys are “must-plays” in GPPs, but you definitely want to give them a lot of consideration in your NFL DFS GPP lineups*

1. Chase Edmonds – If Kenyan Drake is out, Chase Edmonds becomes a very nice value play in the highest totaled game on the slate. Buffalo’s defense has really struggled against the run and despite a weak showing in Week 9, Edmonds hardly left the field… 96% snap share!
   
   Buffalo ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA and Arizona should have their way with the Bills on the ground as they are the 4th most efficient rushing offense in the NFL. Kyler Murray’s ownership is going to be through the roof (and rightfully so), why not pivot to Chase Edmonds at ~10% ownership?
   
   Moving to James Conner now that Kenyan Drake is going to suit up.
   
2. Antonio Gibson – I simply love this dude’s game. I know we’ve seen a ton of JD McKissic lately (even running routes out of the slot), but I project this game to be much slower paced and offer Gibson a gamescript where he can thrive. Detroit’s run defense is allowing ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and rank 25th in run defense DVOA.
   
   At Gibson’s price, I think this is an excellent spot for him to hit 4x value at 5% ownership.
   
3. Ronald Jones / Leonard Fournette – Carolina’s run defense has significantly improved over the year but they’re still bleeding yards to opposing running backs. This is going to be an absolute statement game from Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense. I hate the timeshare, but this should be a gamescript that sets up nicely for two or three rushing touchdowns.
   
   I personally am leaning RoJo, but I will have a feel lineups with Fournette as well. Fournette has been taking away snaps from Jones over the past few weeks, but the Bucs seem plenty confident in riding Jones a bit more when the game is close or in their favor. That should be his role to run with in Week 10.
   
4. Nick Chubb – Guess who’s back? Mr. Nick Chubb in a cakewalk matchup (with weather concerns that will make passing the ball extremely difficult) against Houston’s pathetic run defense. We’re likely going to see 40+ rush attempts from this Cleveland outside-zone run scheme and that will pay dividends to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
   
   Honorable Mention: James Conner, James Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Phil Lindsay

Wide Receivers

1. Keenan Allen – Every single week we pick on Miami slot-corner, Nik Needham. Lock in Keenan and enjoy the show.
   
2. Michael Thomas – He’s simply too cheap for Michael Thomas and a nice pivot away from 25% owned Alvin Kamara chalk. I like them both, but I’m leaning Michael Thomas here in GPP lineups. Hell, make a stack with Brees/Thomas/Kamara, they’re going to put up points.
   
3. Cooper Kupp / Robert Woods – With how much I love Jared Goff and the Rams’ passing attack, I obviously love Kupp and Woods this week. If I had to make a choice, I think Woods has the higher output against a Seattle secondary who will be without Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. See below for another Rams’ option.
   
4. John Brown – Most of my builds cannot afford Stefon Diggs and I don’t really mind that at all. Diggs is going to be 30% owned in this shootout with Arizona. I’ll pivot down to John Brown for my Buffalo exposure in a matchup against Johnathan Joseph. Brown is going to produce big numbers as long as this game stays up-pace.
   
5. Jerry Jeudy – This kid is special. We take advantage of this Raiders’ secondary on a weekly basis and won’t stop now. Jeudy should have a field day against arguably the worst trio of cornerbacks in the AFC.
   
6. DK Metcalf – If everyone is afraid of shadow treatment by Jalen Ramsey, I’m going to be heavily invested in DK Metcalf. I don’t care who you are, you cannot cover DK Metcalf for 60 minutes of football. Current ownership projections show the highest ceiling wide receiver in the game under 10%… Let’s roll.
   
7. Josh Reynolds / Larry Fitzgerald – If you need salary relief or an educated punt-play, Josh Reynolds and Larry Fitzgerald will be my guys. I’ll likely never have both of them in the same lineup, but this is the cheapest, viable pieces of the #1 and #2 offenses on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals model.
   
   Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Aiyuk, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. TJ Hockenson – No idea how this dude isn’t projected for 15% ownership. Washington is terrible at covering the tight end and outside of COVID-19 and Travis Kelce, there really hasn’t been anything else as consistent as TJ Hockenson in 2020.
   
2. Greg Olsen – Disgusting, I know. But hear me out. The Rams cannot cover tight ends, I don’t care what the numbers say. If Ramsey and the Rams’ defense can slow down Metcalf/Lockett just a bit, Greg Olsen is going to run 20+ routes in this game. Assuming that happens, Olsen is easily going to go for 4x value for your NFL DFS GPP lineup.
   
   He’s not going to go nuts, but at his price, he allows you to get very creative with your roster builds.
   
   Honorable Mention: All of the chalky tight ends (Goedert, Waller, Fant)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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