NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 1

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – Rodgers is going completely under the radar this weekend against arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (on paper). The AETY Model has him projected for ~270 passing yards and this matchup grades as good as it did for Rodgers since Week 7 of last year against Oakland… Go look at that box score.
   
   Rodgers is likely to be in my main lineup and we can obviously pair him up with Davante Adams (maybe even Lazard and/or Aaron Jones). Use Dalvin Cook on the back-end for a little game stack.
   AETY Projection: 18.35 Points
   
2. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Even Vegas player props have Trubisky projected for over 250 passing yards, lol. Trubisky has great history against Detroit and their man-coverage. I’ve been talking about him as a value all week and will have plenty of exposure.
   
   Stack Options: Miller/Robinson, Miller/Graham, Robinson/Graham, Robinson/Cohen, Miller/Cohen.
   AETY Projection: 17.44 Points
   
3. Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – This is the nuts matchup for Russell Wilson. I don’t really care what ownership is, I’ll have a lot of him.
   
   Stack Options: Metcalf/Lockett, Lockett/Carson, Metcalf/Carson
   AETY Projection: 21.86 Points
   
   Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson (obviously), Josh Allen

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

1. Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – See the Cash Game Checkdown for write-up. I love him this weekend.
   AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
   
2. Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,800 DK) – Aaron Jones loves playing the Minnesota Vikings, averaging over 133 all-purpose yards in their last three meetings. I love Rodgers. I love Jones. I love this low owned combination paired up with a chalky (rightfully so), Davante Adams.
   AETY Projection: 16.52 DK / 14.92 FD
   
3. Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – He’s just too cheap and a great opportunity to get exposure to a high-total game where everyone is playing these wide receivers. There is no threat behind Gurley regarding snap count, so Atlanta is likely to ride him. Gurley will get it done on Sunday at sub-10% ownership.
   
   Chris Carson on the other side is also a very nice, low-owned option for contrarian exposure to this shoot-out.
   AETY Projection: 17.60 DK / 15.74 FD
   
4. Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – You have all heard me praise this Stefanski outside-zone running scheme, so it should be no surprise that I’m into Chubb this week. No one is going to play him despite having an improved offensive line and dominating on a weekly basis in 2019. He’s going to get a lot of touches and we just need to hope talent and scheme outweigh a great defense.
   AETY Projection: 14.43 DK / 13.53 FD
   
5. Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I’m not a believer in Arizona’s defense just yet and always want some exposure for the late-hammer in the afternoon games. I trust Shanahan’s outside-zone run scheme to take over and run away with this game. If Tevin Coleman has to miss this game due to the air quality, Mostert could offer your lineups some strong, late-upside.
   AETY Projection: 13.50 DK / 12.83 FD
   
6. Matt Breida ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one simple. Breida is going to be sub-3% owned in a gamescript where the Dolphins will be chasing points. Jordan Howard won’t be involved in the “playing catch-up” scheme. Breida is going to hit 2-3x value in our NFL DFS GPP lineups, with over 60 all-purpose yards. If he can get in the box, he can be a difference maker in GPPs and an excellent pivot off of Boston Scott/Antonio Gibson chalk.
   AETY Projection: 11.26 DK / 9.69 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen
   
   *Keep in mind, you do-not need to use two pass catchers with your Quarterbacks. Just wanted to give you some of the options I’ll be using.

Wide Receivers

1. Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – If Mike Williams misses this game, Keenan Allen is going to be busy in what should be one of the higher-paced games on the slate.
   AETY Projection: 15.70 DK / 12.46 FD
   
2. DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Everyone in the industry absolutely loved DJ Moore ALL OFF-SEASON long, but no one wants to play him in a plus-matchup against a rookie cornerback and Trayvon Mullen? I don’t get it, lol. The industry is full of frauds if DJ Moore is truly under 10% owned. Load him up.
   AETY Projection: 15.11 DK / 12.09 FD
   
3. DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up from the get-go on Sunday. Chark is likely to see a 30% market share of the passes from Gardnew Minshew and that’s all I need to know. This team is going to be awful all year long, but no one in the Colts’ secondary can contain Chark.
   AETY Projection: 14.85 DK / 12.12 FD
   
4. Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – I won’t eat DeSean Jackson chalk so Anthony Miller is likely to be my pivot. This dude can run crisp routes and tear apart man-coverage that Detroit is likely to throw at him. We probably will have a lot of Marvin Jones for value and one of Miller/Robinson are perfect candidates to pair on the other side.
   AETY Projection: 11.34 DK / 9.11 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Trent Taylor

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

1. Mark Andrews ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – He may not be under the radar by any means, but no one has the ceiling Andrews does against Cleveland this Sunday. He’s always in play and isn’t priced up where he should be.
   AETY Projection: 14.32 DK / 11.94 FD
   
2. TJ Hockenson ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – No Golladay = A lot of target share to open up on Sunday. As everyone flocks to Marvin Jones (don’t get me wrong, I’ll have some too), I prefer moving down to Hockenson as I’m expecting a big opportunity in his favor. The AETY Model loves his chances of getting in the end-zone and he makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP target.
   AETY Projection: 11.53 / 9.42
   
3. Mike Gesicki ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – Miami will be chasing points. New England’s linebackers cannot keep up with Gesicki. He’s probably my favorite GPP tight-end and someone I’ll always have on the other side of my Cam Newton stacks.
   AETY Projection: 8.65 DK / 6.97 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goeddert, Jimmy Graham

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