Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend
We are into one of the best weekends of football on the season with six games spread over three days! One aspect that is going to be important is late swap. With no overlap in the games, you can judge how your lineup is doing game by game and adjust as needed. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Wildcard Weekend and see what spots we’re going after to find the green screens!
Raiders at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Bengals -5)
Raiders
QB – Take about not getting any respect, Derek Carr is cheaper than Gardner Minshew for the Eagles. While I’m not exactly advocating for Carr and dying on that hill, the salary is interesting for a quarterback that could approach 40 passing attempts and has his offense as healthy as it can be at this juncture. While it is true that he suffered a lot when they were missing multiple starters, one came back last week. It didn’t pay immediate dividends but Cincinnati is 24th in DVOA against the pass, 21st in yards per attempt allowed, and 26th in completion rate. Carr was seventh in yards per attempt this season and sixth in true completion rate while sitting fifth in yards. The touchdowns weren’t great at just 23 and that helps explain ranking 26th in points per dropback. With his tight end back, he’s interesting in builds where you’re focused on getting as many skill players as you can.
RB – I’ll be honest, it’s a bit tough to sell me on Josh Jacobs as the second-highest salary for a back on the slate. There are so many strong players on this slate that Jacobs and his lesser role in the passing game now is more on the back-burner. The Raiders have more components of the offense back so I don’t think he’s going to get the same work in the passing game and over the past four weeks, he only has 13 total targets. Cincinnati finished the year 13th in DVOA against the run, 10th in rushing yards allowed to backs, and 13th in yards per carry. With Vegas coming in as five-point dogs, the passing game is likely at the forefront and Jacobs is expensive in the context of the slate.
WR – The duo of Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones is still interesting even with the return of the star tight end and both players saw at least five targets last week, although both were secondary targets. Renfrow got all of the attention in the past few weeks and that makes sense with a 23.8% target share and over 125 PPR points since Week 12 when Waller was hurt. He’s also playing a little under 65% of his snaps from the slot and that would have Bengals corner Mike Hilton facing him for a good portion of those snaps. Hilton has allowed a 72% catch rate across 76 targets along with a 108.4 passer rating so the matchup is excellent for Renfrow. Jones was basically tied for targets with Renfrow from Week 12 on but could draw some of Chidobe Awuzie on the boundary, who allowed a 54.8% catch rate and just an 89.2 passer rating. Jones is likely only a deep GPP option while Renfrow is fine across the board, though not a primary target.
TE – It was a tough first game back for Darren Waller with just 4.2 DraftKings points but the nine targets are much more important. The connection wasn’t there but Carr had no hesitation to pepper Waller with targets and that should not come as a surprise. Waller finished eighth in targets among tight ends this year despite playing just 11 games and his 24.2% target share was third at the position. This is also a position that the Bengals struggled with a bit, as they gave up the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most yards along with eight scores. I think there could be some very strong builds with value backs and the double-TE approach this week, with Waller more than in play at his salary.
D/ST – Playing the Raiders defense is not the most ideal play on paper, as they rank just 17th in total DVOA and finished middle of the pack with 35 sacks. The Bengals offensive line has been an issue at times since they allowed the most sacks in football (only team over 50 sacks on their starting quarterback) but I’m not sure they get enough sacks to be willing to take the risk. They ranked 26th in points allowed per game and were tied for the third-fewest turnovers, so the avenues for fantasy points appear to be limited.
Cash – Waller, Renfrow
GPP – Carr, Jacobs, Jones, D/ST
Bengals
QB – Joe Burrow is one of the hottest quarterbacks to enter the playoffs with two games combining for 971 yards, four touchdowns, and zero turnovers. That helped propel him to sixth in yards, first in yards per attempt, second in true completion rate, and eighth in touchdowns in addition to sixth in points per dropback. The Bengals feel like one of the most dangerous offenses in the postseason and Vegas is just 21st in DVOA against the pass to go along with 22nd in completion rate allowed. What they really did a great job of this year was holding the yards per attempt low at just 6.3 yards, the sixth-best in the league. The challenge for Burrow is to rectify that because, in the first matchup, Vegas held him to 148 passing yards and 5.1 yards per attempt. Those were both the lowest of the season for Burrow, but I don’t think that holds up for a second game.
RB – If we’re spending up on running back, Joe Mixon would be my choice over Jacobs. He’s a home favorite to start and Mixon has some very safe volume with the third-most carries, fifth-most red zone touches, third-most rush yards, and he asked on 42 receptions. Among playoff teams, only Najee Harris has more carries and he’s seventh in receptions. It wouldn’t be my full reason to play him but he did get the Raiders for 123 rushing yards in Week 11 and Vegas is 10th in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt allowed. The sheer volume leaves Mixon as a prime option if that’s where you want to funnel the salary.
WR – Seeing as how the Raiders held Ja’Marr Chase to one of his worst games of the season outside of a touchdown, he’s surely chomping at the bit for a bit of redemption. In the last two games that mattered, Chase saw 22 total targets and totaled 391 yards with three touchdowns. Casey Hayward would likely be tasked with holding Chase in check here and Hayward has had a strong season with a 58.8% catch rate allowed and 1.47 points per target. He did also allow 13 yards per reception so that is interesting because Chase was second in yards per reception at 18.0 and eighth in yards per route at 2.71.
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd come cheaper than Chase and Higgins is the one that has generally possessed the higher upside and had more targets by 16 and a higher target share at 23.9% to 18.4% for Boyd. Higgins also rivaled Chase in red-zone and end zone targets even though Chase scored 13 times compared to just six for Higgins. Corner Brandon Facyson should see more of Higgins and he’s at 1.75 points per target while Nate Hobbs mans the slot 84% of the time with a 100.6 passer rating allowed and 1.55 points per target. We know full well that Chase and Higgins can wreck any given slate but I will say I like some spots better. The Bengals overall feel like I want one player, but may not go overboard and it might come down to who fits the build. In this game, I would take Higgins over Renfrow but I do have a preference for another elite receiver ahead of Chase.
TE – The position is loaded this weekend with receiver-level plays, so it’s not likely that I’ll end up with C.J. Uzomah. His 12.3% target share was 24th and he finished the season 18th in receptions and 20th in yards. Since he only saw six red-zone targets all season, the touchdown equity is likely not going to be there to make up the difference between the other tight ends on this slate. The Raiders were one of only three teams to give up 10 or more touchdowns so Uzomah has that going for him for the matchup, but his offense may not be likely to take advantage of it.
D/ST – The Bengals defense is moderately interesting because Carr has been brought down 40 times, tied for the fifth-most and Cincy was top 10 in sacks this season. They were also just 19th in total DVOA and 17th in points allowed so this was far from a dominant unit but once we get to the playoffs, almost every defense is either going to be in an imperfect spot and/or too expensive to build with. I’m very much building a lineup I like and then worrying about the defense so the Bengals are in play as a home favorite.
Cash – Mixon, Burrow, Chase, Higgins
GPP – Boyd, D/ST
Patriots at Bills, O/U of 44 (Bills -4)
Patriots
QB – Of all 12 quarterbacks on this slate, Mac Jones could be the last one I would play. He just has not gotten done for fantasy, even with his positive traits as a real-life quarterback. The weather could be a factor here and even if it isn’t, Jones was just the QB18 and he was 25th in points per game and 23rd in points per dropback. In the one game where he actually threw the ball against Buffalo, he showed exactly why the Patriots didn’t let him throw in the first game. He went 14-32 with two INT’s and 7.1 DraftKings Points, and that’s in the outcomes here again. Buffalo was first in DVOA against the pass, first in completion rate allowed, and first in yards per attempt allowed. That is far from ideal and this Patriots offense is not built to sling it around right now, even if the weather was perfect.
RB – With the weather report calling for temperatures hovering around zero degrees, the Patriots may try to replicate the success they had against the Bills in the first matchup. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson ran over the Buffalo defense for a combined 189 rushing yards and a narrow victory. They are 4.5 point dogs and the issue really is the Patriots being able to stop the Buffalo offense. Harris is the preferred target but you have to believe the Patriots can utilize this game plan because Harris only has 18 total receptions. If they have to pass, he’s going to flop. He is 12th in red-zone touches this year and fifth in total touchdowns, so the upside is there but the downside is as well. Buffalo finished 11th in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt allowed but they have shown cracks in some games.
WR – I have virtually no enthusiasm here for the Patriots receiving corps in a very difficult matchup, bad weather, and an iffy quarterback. Buffalo only allowed 12 passing touchdowns on the season and even though Jakobi Meyers is extremely affordable, he faces Taron Johnson in the slot for the majority of his snaps and Johnson allowed a 48.3% catch rate and 1.24 points per target. They are both top 15 marks among corners, which speaks to Johnson’s ability. Levi Wallace will man one of the boundary positions he’s also in the top 20 in points per target and catch rate allowed. This is a bad spot for Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as well and is one of the easier spots to eliminate in my view.
TE – Hunter Henry is in the Uzomah category for me in that I’m not looking his way all that much. He is different than Uzomah because Henry finished second at the position with nine touchdowns but outside the top 15 in a lot of other metrics among his position. He did squeak into 13th in yards but just 17th in receptions, 18th in targets, and 18th in target share. Only two teams gave up fewer touchdowns to tight ends than the Bills, and that takes plenty of appeal away from Henry right away. Even in the second matchup against the Bills where the Patriots threw the ball, he only had one reception for nine yards. Henry is cheap but does not appear to have the upside on paper, let alone factoring in the weather.
D/ST – Depending on just how bad the weather is as we get closer, New England is the best unit statistically that is under $2,800 on DraftKings. It’s important to note they got smashed in the last meeting against Buffalo and wound up scoring negative fantasy points, the only time this season that it happened. Overall, they were fourth in total DVOA, second in points allowed, and they tied for the third-most turnovers generated. Having said that, this is a dynamite offense they are facing and the only way you look here is if you think the weather really impacts the game plan of both offenses.
Cash – None, Harris is the closest
GPP – D/ST, Stevenson, Meyers
Bills
QB – I really have zero fears about Josh Allen as far as the matchup goes, even though New England has been excellent this season. They are second behind the Bills in all the defensive categories we just talked about other than DVOA, where New England is third. Still, Allen carved them up a few weeks ago for 33 DraftKings Points and if the passing game is struggling, I expect them to make one significant adjustment – using Allen’s legs. In the first game where the weather killed both teams, it was a big surprise that Allen only had six rushing attempts. He’s an elite weapon in that aspect of the game, finishing third in attempts, yards, and first in red-zone attempts. Even the following week against Tampa, Buffalo seemed to realize their mistake when Allen ran it 12 times. Allen was second in points per dropback and first in points per game and the only arguments against playing him are any weather concerns and salary. Past that, I can’t build the case to skip him.
RB – Since Week 14 when the Bills finally decided on who their RB1 is, Devin Singletary has been a monster with a total of 80 carries and 14 receptions with is touchdowns. It’s what tends to happen when you’re attached to a great offense and New England is a mixed bag as far as the matchup. They are 25th in yards per attempt allowed but ninth in DVOA against the run. However, they have also allowed the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards and that’s an area that Singletary can really hurt them and he’s still under $6,000. Much like the New England backfield, Singletary could have more opportunity if the passing game (specifically the deep passing game for Buffalo) is having issues in the weather and the salary is very enticing here. The game theory of fading both passing games and just getting exposure from the running backs does make sense as well.
WR – As of right now, Stefon Diggs is 10th in ownership among receivers and that seems like a mistake. Sure, it’s a tough matchup, and the weather, all that is noted. Diggs has still dropped 21 DraftKings on New England once this year and he scored 9.1 in the first meeting with a missed opportunity on a long touchdown that would have pushed him over 20 DK again. He’s scored 15 in three of four career meetings with New England as a Bill and has a 44 point performance as one of his games. The point in citing that is the popular (and reasonable) take is Bill Belichick takes away the top option of the offense. While hat has always been the goal, it has never truly worked against Diggs. He finished eighth in receptions, seventh in yards, seventh in deep targets, second in unrealized air yards, and ninth in points per game. Diggs remains a strong option in all formats.
The secondary options are much tougher to figure out as Emmanuel Sanders is on track to return to the lineup and Cole Beasley will man the slot. J.C. Jackson will be occupied with Diggs and Jalen Mills is out for New England, making the secondary weaker in this spot. Myles Bryant has been the slot corner for New England and has allowed a 71.4% catch rate so Beasley has some potential in the matchup. The 19.3% target share is not awful and he finished 17th in receptions across receivers, a bit of a surprise. Sanders was the deep threat in the offense with a 15-yard aDOT which is wildly volatile, and not my likeliest route to take.
TE – This has been a difficult spot for tight ends all year as the Patriots were the only team in the league to allow under 50 receptions (46) and under 582 yards (440) to the position. Additionally, they only gave up four touchdowns across 86 targets so Dawson Knox becomes a bit of a tougher sell. He did score one of the four touchdowns the Patriots gave up but he barely scored 11 points in that game. There are certainly flaws in his game as well with a 13.2% target share (22nd) and outside the top 10 in yards and receptions. He did miss two games which hurt those ratios but knowing he’s in the toughest matchup based on the stats this season and he needs to score to pay off doesn’t help his cause.
D/ST – Since this game features the lowest total of the weekend and the Patriots offense is one of the more flawed units in the dance, Buffalo makes the most sense out of any defense on the weekend in my view. They’re not overly expensive on DraftKings and finished first in total DVOA, first in points allowed, and tied for the third-most takeaways just like New England. The difference lies in Mac Jones has not shown consistently that he can win a game on his own yet and if you have to spend up, this is the ideal spot to do it.
Cash – Singletary, Allen, D/ST, Diggs
GPP – Beasley, Knox, Sanders
Eagles at Buccaneers, O/U of 46 (Buccaneers -9.5)
Eagles
QB – One of the lagers wild cards of the position this week is Jalen Hurts, as he scored 26 DraftKings Points in the first matchup and he’s the QB9 on the season with only 15 games under his belt. Some may just see the DK points but he played pretty horribly in that game (garbage time was his best friend) and two rushing touchdowns help get you there at the end of the day. On paper, this spot isn’t the kindest for Hurts who is still not the prototypical quarterback. He finished 21st in passing yards and 31st in true completion rate while Tampa was 10th in DVOA against the pass and fourth in yards per attempt allowed. Hurts did his damage on the ground by leading the position in carries, yards, and touchdowns, and that’s what this spot comes down to. Tampa blitzed at the highest rate in football, the only team over 40% this season. Hurts led in scrambles and if they can keep Hurts from scrambling and in the pocket, his completion rate under pressure was only 25th. If they can’t he can smash this salary with a very average passing line if he’s running wild.
RB – I think one of the easier spots to get away from this weekend is the Philadelphia backfield Miles Sanders is likely back in action by early indications, but this is one of the tougher spots a running back can have. That’s doubly true when said back has 26 receptions (44th among backs) and a target share of just 9.6% within the offense. Tampa did fall to 15th in yards per attempt allowed by the end of the year but they are still 12th in DVOA against the run and they once again allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs. The weakness is they allowed the second-most receptions but that is not what Sanders has shown this year, be it his fault or the offense overall. The other facet that hurts him is the Eagles are the second-largest dog of the weekend at 8.5 points and they will very likely not be able to establish the run in this spot.
WR – With the options we have this week, I believe the only receiver to consider is DeVonta Smith. I know that Quez Watkins had a big game last week and I suppose you could turn him into a deep GPP flier, but that is super risky in this offense with his 13.9% target share. Week 7 started a new era in Philly and since then, Smith has been one target off the team lead and he has a 36.8% air yard share. It may not be what the first thought is but he’s had eight end zone targets in that span as well with four touchdowns scored. They should have to pass more because the matchup in the run game is so difficult but Smith is against a tough secondary that can mostly focus on him and one other player. Smith is not likely ready to consistently beat double teams and the duo of Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis wait on the boundary. Murphy-Bunting played the slot under 40% of the time this year and both corners allowed a catch rate under 57% on the season. Davis did allow 14.2-yards per reception so there are some glimmers of hope there, but Smith is not my favorite target.
TE – My word is Dallas Goedert cheap on this slate. Tampa wound up giving up the eighth-most receptions to the position and since Week 7 when Zach Ertz was traded, Goedert has led the Eagles in target share, receptions, yards, and PPR points. The only really disturbing trend is he has zero (really? Zero?) end zone targets in that span and a whopping one red-zone target. There are two spins on that and one is he’s tougher to play with such little touchdown equity on paper but the main takeaway to me is he’s so cheap, he doesn’t need to score to have a big game. If he does, that could be gravy on top of the rest of his production, and Philly in a negative script should help the outlook for Goedert.
D/ST – The Eagles are one of the cheapest units on the weekend and for good reason. They only generated 29 sacks, the fewest of any playoff team, and only forced 16 turnovers. Only the Raiders had fewer in the field and when you add in that 25th in total DVOA is dead last among playoff teams, you start to see why they are an unappealing option. It doesn’t help when you have to face the best quarterback to ever play who was sacked just 22 times. That was the fewest of any quarterback that started at least 13 games this year and his 12 interceptions aren’t enough to chase.
Cash – Goedert
GPP – Hurts, Smith
Buccaneers
QB – No receivers, no problems for Tom Brady. He closed the season in typically dominant fashion after the Buccaneers adjusted to life without Chris Godwin and seeing Antonio Brown no longer on the team in contentious fashion. Now, the opposition wasn’t exactly the best ever but Philly is 25th in DVOA against the pass, dead last in completion rate allowed (oh my), and 10th in yards per attempt allowed. Brady has a pretty big argument for MVP as much as it pains me as a Steelers fan to say that but he led the league in attempts, red-zone attempts, yards, touchdowns, and third in points per game. Among the high-end salaries, Brady has the lead right now as my favorite, and at least one lineup will have him stacked with two players, but maybe not the two you might think.
RB – This is a spot that we’ll need clarity on through the week. Leonard Fournette has a chance to be back this weekend from his hamstring injury and if he is and he’s full-go, he may be unavoidable in cash under $6,000. He was leading running backs in receptions when he got hurt and he’s still third with 69. Fournette is fourth in receiving yards and 19th in rushing yards and the Eagles defense is one to exploit. They were 19th in DVOA against the run and were mid-pack in rushing yards allowed. The issue for them is the play of their linebackers and it is not good, while they have allowed the third-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards. That is directly in the wheelhouse for Fournette and now they are missing Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, which opens up a ton of work in the passing game. If Fournette is active, I’ll be utilizing a double stack of Buccaneers that we’ll get to in a few minutes.
WR – The tables have turned on the Tampa receiving corps in a hurry. Gone are Godwin and AB with only Mike Evans as the last man standing as far as star-level receivers. He has yet to accuse under 1,000 yards in any season and he found the paint 14 times, so I will not take him out of the pool by any stretch. Darius Slay has a chance to hold him in check to some degree but the red-zone is a difficult ask for Slay. He’s giving up 4-5 inches and around 30 pounds to Evans and Brady is accurate as few others in the league are. While Evans is well in play, my favorite stack from this team is Brady/Fournette/Gronk, but we’ll get to that in just a minute.
As far as the secondary guys go, Breshad Perriman and Tyler Johnson look to be the favorites in three-receiver sets. Both saw at least six targets last week and if Brady is throwing as much as usual, there have to be targets to go around. I’d rather play Johnson ahead of Sanders from the Bills and Perriman is in play, but the track record is so short that it’s difficult to get a perfect read on the situation. I would only use either in large-field GPP’s this week and Avonte Maddox and Steven Nelson will be heavily involved in the coverage of these two. Maddox was a stalwart across his 55 targets with 1.26 points per target and Nelson struggled mightily with a 1.98 mark.
TE – One of my favorite plays of the weekend is Rob Gronkowski and I expect him to be popular. With the receiving corps so much thinner than it was a month ago, Gronk should be a monster and since he’s come back from injury he’s looked close to prime-level Gronk. He leads the team in targets and has a 19.1% target share, not to mention leading in air yards share at 24.6% and PPR points. That was with Evans and Godwin playing at least five games each and now we can talk about the matchup, which is arguably the best in football. No team gave up more receptions or touchdowns to the position and they rank 25th in yards allowed on top of that. Gronk should have an absolute field day and this could look like the old days in New England this week in Tampa. The ultimate pet is Cameron Brate, who has a touchdown in three of the past four games and is second in red-zone targets. It’s very risky, but he’s one of the only true punts on the slate that make any sense.
D/ST – I prefer the Bills in this range because I believe the Pats offense has less potential than that Eagles, although Tampa was no slouch at ninth in total DVOA. They finished with the seventh-most sacks although Hurts was only sacked four more times than Brady and fifth in points allowed this season. Tampa’s defense fought through injuries seemingly every week and still took the ball away the fourth-most times in the league, so they could be the top-scoring unit on the slate. The only catch is since they are the most expensive play, they have to be the highest-scoring defense to feel good about playing them.
Cash – Fournette, Gronk, Brady
GPP – Evans, Johnson, Perriman, D/ST
49ers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -3)
49ers
QB – I have to give Jimmy Garoppolo some credit where it’s due. He shook off some mistakes and led the biggest drive of the season last week to force overtime in LA and you have to admit that he was on point when the pressure was at its highest. I’m torn here because the Dallas defense was second in DVOA, third in completion rate allowed, but they were 17th in yards per attempt. Despite the perception of not getting the ball downfield, Garoppolo was second in yards per attempt and perhaps his best attribute against the Dallas pass rush is his 58.6% completion rate under pressure, the highest in the league. If he’s able to get the ball out accurately, this defense can be had when they aren’t forcing turnovers because they gave up the 12th most passing yards in football. Only the Bengals, Chiefs, Titans, and Rams gave up more this season and the 26 interceptions saved the Dallas offense more often than not. If they can’t get the takeaways, this San Fran offense should thrive although I’d get my exposure from the skill guys ahead of Jimmy G.
RB – Call me crazy but I really like Elijah Mitchell this week. I’m a big believer that the Shanahan run game can get it done against any opponent and Dallas was just 16th in DVOA against the run. On top of that, they were 24th in yards per attempt allowed but they only allowed eight rushing touchdowns, third-best in the league. This game is tied for the closest spread of the weekend and while Mitchell doesn’t have a lot of upside in the passing game (if any at all), he is the clear lead back in this offense when he’s healthy and he’s just $5,500. That extra $900 from Damien Harris to Mitchell could come in handy since they are similar players in their respective offenses. He’s been dealing with an injury but he’s had 21 carries in each of the past two games and it’s really hard now to look at him as the cheapest back who can get to 20 touches in my estimation.
WR – I didn’t think this would be a hot take but the ownership would say it is. Deebo Samuel will be the highest-scoring receiver on the slate and he’s outside the top-10 in ownership. We’ve talked about how the Cowboys offense can give up yards and Deebo racked up well over 750 yards after the catch this season. He’s a wizard with the ball in his hands and he’s going to walk all over Trevon Diggs, who allowed an egregious 19.0 YPR and 2.01 points per target. Deebo was fifth in yards, sixth in target share, and you’re going to get a few carries sprinkled in as well. One of my stands in GPP this week is Deebo>everyone at receiver.
If you can’t get to Deebo and want some 49ers exposure, Brandon Aiyuk is not a bad place to get it. He recovered from a horrific start to the season and Week 8 seemed to be a turning point. Since then, he actually led the team in raw targets with 62 (Deebo more than evened it out with carries but the point still stands) and Aiyuk played over 85% of his snaps out of the slot. That means plenty of Anthony Brown who allowed 14.0 YPR and 1.56 points per target while Aiyuk had the highest aDOT among the main components in the offense.
TE – I wonder if George Kittle becomes stuck in no man’s land at the position this weekend. We have a ton of strong options and Kittle is coming off three straight games where he combined for 14.6 DraftKings points total. He’s been highly volatile this year but he also saw seven targets last week and somehow generated just 10 yards. That’s really not indicative of his metrics as he’s second in target share at 24.9%, sixth in deep targets, fourth in yards, sixth in receptions, and fourth in points per game. Dallas was middle of the pack in defending tight ends and with the volatility that Kittle has shown, I do prefer the targets. It just has to be known that he could easily lead the position in scoring this week and if he’s 4-5th in popularity, that’s very notable in GPP settings.
D/ST – This game has the most potential to get into a true shootout with two excellent offenses but the defenses have had their moments as well. San Francisco’s unit is seventh in total DVOA somehow despite a rash of injuries and forced 20 turnovers while getting home 47 times, sixth-most in football. They finished in the top 10 in points allowed but Vegas doesn’t seem to care as this game is the only one with a total of over 50 points this weekend. I would lean going away from them and would rather play the Bills for $400 more.
Cash – Deebo, Mitchell, Aiyuk
GPP – Kittle, D/ST, Jimmy G
Cowboys
QB – One of the other quarterbacks that could rival Burrow for a heat check coming into the weekend is Dak Prescott, throwing for 12 touchdowns in the past three games against zero interceptions and one fumble. He’s been dynamite and the salary is so affordable that I think he could be popular because the pass defense is the weaker point of the San Francisco defense. They are 16th in DVOA against the pass, 29th in completion rate allowed, and 11th in yards per attempt. They are getting some of the secondary back but this is a dangerous passing attack and Dak finished seventh in passing yards, 10th in yards per attempt, 11th in points per dropback, and ninth in points per game. He was also seventh in true completion rate and ninth in deep completion rate and if Dallas is to win this game, Dak is going to need to lead the charge.
RB – The playoffs are priced a little looser but seeing Ezekiel Elliott at $6,100 is still weird. There were reports that he would be limited in Week 18 but he handled 18 carries and tacked on a reception to finish at the seventh-most carries and he was seventh in rushing yards. Even in a crowded offense, Zeke also was ninth in receptions but he was disappointing through so many weeks. He barely made it over averaging 15 DK points and even at this salary, his average game wouldn’t be worth spending that money or roster spot. San Francisco was also second in DVOA against the run and seventh in yards per attempt allowed on top of the seventh-fewest rush yards allowed to backs. All in all, this is not a great spot and the only way Zeke has upside appears to be multiple scores. Tony Pollard is expected to be back but I’m hard-pressed to see why they give him meaningful work all of the sudden and Mitchell is $200 more, while Fournette would be $600 more. That’s not a decision in my eyes.
WR – At least as of now, Cedrick Wilson is going to be a big part of my lineups. It’s not all about the game logs (although producing without Michael Gallup is a big plus to see) but he’s seen 12 targets in a game and a half since that point. In a game that we suspect shoots out, he’s simply not expensive enough. The caveat is he could wind up getting lost in the shuffle if we have access to a punt in the next game but we’ll get there in a moment.
The question of CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper has been a little difficult all year. I don’t think either one had the season they were hoping for as Lamb was just WR19 and Cooper was WR27. Lamb should play more outside receiver than he was when Gallup was healthy and Cooper stays stagnant in his role, and both are affordable. If Dallas is smart, they’ll move everyone around a bit and pick on Josh Norman as much as possible with his 2.09 points per target and 14.7 YPR. K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley were both under 1.55 and Williams has manned the slot almost 85% of the time for San Francisco. If you expect the run game to be lackluster, all of these receivers will have six targets or more and there will be plenty to go around.
TE – I tend to be of the mindset that when the Dallas offense is healthy, Dalton Schultz takes a backseat in the general sense. While Gallup is out, Blake Jarwin made his return last week and he’ll take some snaps this week. Schultz did score twice last week but he also was targeted just three times, a big issue since Dallas played into the fourth quarter with their starters. Schultz was in the matchup that we love against the Eagles as well, so his ceiling is a bit diminished here. He’s in the top 10 in targets, yards, receptions, touchdowns, and points per game on the season but I’m not sure that’s representative of where the offense currently is at. I do believe we have stronger options.
D/ST – Dallas did finish second in total DVOA and seventh in points allowed, but I have concerns if they can’t force mistakes from Jimmy G. They do have the fourth-highest pressure rate on the season and racked up over 40 sacks but they also finished 20th in yards per play allowed and 19th in yards allowed per game. Make no mistake, you can move the ball against the Cowboys. It’s just a matter of holding onto it long enough to score points and if San Francisco does, I think they pull the upset here.
Cash – Dak, Lamb, Wilson
GPP – Cooper, Zeke, Schultz
Steelers at Chiefs, O/U of 45.5 (Chiefs -12.5)
Steelers
QB – I’m not sure how in the world the Steelers managed to back into the postseason, but I don’t expect their stay to be long here. Ben Roethlisberger has been roundly awful for fantasy outside of a couple of magical weeks, he’s 33rd in points per dropback and 23rd in points per game. Big Ben ranks 30th in deep completion rate, 30th in yards per attempt, and 15th in yards despite the sixth-most attempts. He’s likely to throw 40 times or more, but that doesn’t mean it has to result in anything and I’m not looking in his direction this week.
RB – I really don’t have a lot of interest in Najee Harris as a 13.5 point underdog, but I have a feeling that the rest of the field feels the same way and that could leave the rookie as one heck of a GPP play. The game in Week 16 could not have gone much worse for Pittsburgh as they got trucked in Arrowhead by 26 points, and the game was worse than the score looked. Yet, Harris generated 16 DK points on 24 touches without a touchdown and he can hurt the Chiefs in both facets of the game. The Chiefs continued to be poor against the run this year as last year, as they averaged 4.8 yards per attempt allowed and that was 31st. They were only 20th in DVOA and they allowed the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards against running backs this year. Even if the Steelers are getting smashed as Vegas expects, that means a lot of work in the passing game is in the range of outcomes for Harris. The volume was impeccable for Harris this year with the second-most carries, the most receptions, third-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most rushing yards among backs. If he’s getting largely ignored, we should be paying attention in GPP’s and willing to take the plunge.
WR – We have a potential slate-changing punt in this game because there is a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster plays in this game and he’s the stone minimum on DK. We’re not talking about a fifth-string receiver that is jumping to an elevated role and hoping for the best. If JuJu is active, he’s a legit 70/950/8 receiver in the NFL who knows this offense. I would not expect him to play every single snap by any stretch but playing on third down and red-zone packages more than makeup for the salary. We’ve been punting Ray-Ray McCloud in recent weeks because he’s been more involved and let me tell you as a Steelers fan, he’s not that good. I’m not the biggest JuJu fan but a minimum salary is a cheat code and would replace Wilson as the cheap player to target.
I love Diontae Johnson as a player but will not likely have a whole lot this week, as his salary is high enough to make me chase other spots like Higgins or both Dallas options. Johnson was a monster this year, somehow finishing ninth in yards despite sitting 84th in yards per reception and he was 11th in unrealized air yards. He had a fantastic season and the script screams for him to go off, but the salary leaves him in no man’s land for me. Charvarius Ward was a strong corner as well with a 45.2% catch rate allowed an 1.43 points per target. Chase Claypool is wildly inconsistent (not all his quarterback’s fault, either) but the salary is more tempting than Johnson. He did see 22 targets across the past three games but has only managed to generate 95 receiving yards so the floor is very low. Rashad Fenton would mix for coverage on Claypool and he only allowed 10.2 yards per reception this year.
TE – The upside is starting to get harder to find with Pat Freiermuth since he’s been over 14 DraftKings Points just once since Week 9. He’s getting enough targets at 16th throughout the season but his aDOT of 5.0 yards was 35th among tight ends. He did finish 12th in receptions and showed a nose for the paint with seven but that tailed off as the year went on. The Chiefs were average at defending the position and even in the largest negative script of the weekend, his quarterback hasn’t changed and it’s tough to find an upside to compete with others in this group.
D/ST – I don’t think this is the craziest punt you can make. In past seasons, going against the Chiefs in Arrowhead would have been a suicide mission. This season has been a bit different as the Chiefs turned the ball over 25 times (tied for fifth-most) and allowed 28 sacks. That latter number isn’t egregious but the Steelers led the league in sacks and were seventh in pressure rate. Their secondary will not hold up if they can’t get pressure but all they would need is 2-3 sacks and a turnover or two to be alright here. With the way T.J. Watt is playing, there are worse options at the cheapest price than the Steelers.
Cash – I don’t feel comfortable with any, Johnson would be closest pending JuJu
GPP – Najee, Claypool, Muth, D/ST
Chiefs
QB – It somewhat feels like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have just been waiting for the games to matter for them to really go off (although the past couple of weeks would fly into the face of the narrative). Mahomes faces a tough challenge in the eighth-best DVOA against the pass and T.J. Watt as a pass rusher, but he can get it done at home. He finished fourth in yards, third in attempts, sixth in red-zone attempts, 10th in points per dropback, and fifth in points per game. Pittsburgh was just 13th in yards allowed per attempt but the one Achilles heel for Mahomes this season has been ranking 23rd in pressured completion rate. If there’s an avenue for him to get disrupted, it’s the pass rush from Pittsburgh who led the league in sacks. This may sound crazy, but I like other high-salary quarterbacks better just a little bit.
RB – We’ll see if the backfield gives us a slam dunk play or not, based on the health of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If he’s not ready to get back on the field, Darrell Williams would be just as good (if not even better) than Mitchell at the same exact salary. Williams has passing game upside with an 8.9% target share in the offense and nine red-zone targets. He would be the lead dog without any questions if CEH is out and Pittsburgh’s run defense has been garbage this year. They are dead last in yards per attempt allowed and the only team that allowed 5.0 yards per attempt in the league to go along with 27th in DVOA against the run and they missed leading the league in rushing yards allowed to backs by 15 yards. This is a prime spot for somebody and we would just need to know who we like closer to the weekend.
WR – The salary on Tyreek Hill is very low and it feels like you can’t pass on it but man has he had a rough three weeks. Last week can be brushed aside with injury in fairness but he turned 10 targets in Cincinnati into just 40 yards. He finished sixth in yards and third in receptions while ranking sixth in points per game with a 25.1% target share. Joe Haden is back for the Steelers but they know he’s not going to be able to keep up just one on one. As it was this year, he allowed 1.75 points per target across 44 targets and 12 games. Getting anyone else right in the corps has been tough. In the past two weeks, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle both have games over 20 DK points. The recent emergence of corner Ahkello Witherspoon has helped this defense in a big way too. He’s been targeted 32 times but most of his action has come from Week 13 on and his fantasy points per target are 0.85 with a 34.4% catch rate allowed. If he can hold up on the secondary players, the Steelers can allocate more resources to Hill and the next man.
TE – Travis Kelce has been such a weird study all season. He has upside like almost no other tight ends in the league but he’s been pedestrian for more than his share of games. Of his 16 games, 10 were under 18 DraftKings points so Kelce hasn’t exactly been the sure-fire bet he has been in the past. The Steelers were on the better end of defending the position but we don’t typically care about that when we’re talking Kelce. Even in a “down” season (down isn’t the exact right word, maybe inconsistent is better), Kelce was still second in receptions, yards, points per game, and he led the position with 10 touchdowns. Seeing as how the tight end that led in the categories Kelce is second, I don’t want to downplay what Kelce accomplished. It’s just important to understand that he was up and down this season and a down game would hurt.
D/ST – If we’re in this range and not playing the Bills, KC is next on my list ahead of Tampa since this Steelers offense is fairly pathetic. The Chiefs have had a rough season defensively and they had about a month span where they looked awesome, only to turn it back in the last couple of weeks to being sub-par again. They wound up being just 24th in total DVOA but Big Ben was sacked the seventh-most times in the league this year and despite all the yards they gave up (bottom 10), the Chiefs were eighth in points allowed. Pittsburgh seems unlikely to overcome the flaws in KC’s defense and I’m happy to go with the Chiefs here.
Cash – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, TBD on backs, D/ST
GPP – Hardman, Pringle
Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)
Cardinals
QB – The Rams are a tough defense but Kyler Murray has scored over 22 DraftKings in both matchups and he’s been a strong option on any given week. I believe that’s true again despite the Rams ranking in the top-five in DVOA against the pass. Part of that reason is they also rank 24th in completion rate allowed and 16th in yards allowed per attempt. Kyler is fourth in yards per attempt, first in true completion rate, and third in points per dropback. He was also fourth in points per game and was a top 10 quarterback in just 14 games played. Kyler and Brady are my preferred targets above $7,000 this week, although I wouldn’t fight you on Allen or Mahomes.
RB – This backfield is tough to get behind since the expectation is James Conner and Chase Edmonds are supposed to be active for this game. The other issue is you have no real escape hatch if something changes because this one is Monday night and when both are active, it’s hard to prioritize. Conner gets the red-zone work with 39 attempts but Edmonds gets the passing work at 53 targets to 33 for Conner. Edmonds hating the IR opened up Conner for more work in that facet but through Week 9, Edmonds had a 37-10 lead in targets overall. The Rams have been stout against the run for the most part at fifth in DVOA against the run and yards per attempt. If they are both on track to play, I think the answer could be “neither” but Edmonds and the receiving work would be my lean.
WR – While Christian Kirk has been the workhorse in the corps since DeAndre Hopkins went down, this is far from my favorite spot for him. He’s been in the slot almost half the time and Jalen Ramsey plays a lot more slot than other top corners at 32.7%. While I’m not sitting here saying Ramsey is going to shadow Kirk, they should see enough of each other that it’s harder to see Kirk having huge upside in this game. Last week was a big bump in the road as well with just three targets and was a reminder that he can be a little flighty, even without Hopkins. That also means that A.J. Green will see a mix of Ramsey and Darious Williams, and both are under 1.50 points per target and 12.0 YPR. He does have 16 red-zone targets but only found the paint three times, so I may rather play Claypool (he says through gritted teeth).
TE – As much as I really like some of the other tight ends on the slate, Zach Ertz is a very solid “late hammer” in the last game of the weekend. He’s seen 43 targets in the four games that Hopkins missed and he’s scored at least 11.1 DraftKings points in all four games, without the luxury of a touchdown. He only faced the Rams once and Hopkins played that entire game so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison but he did score under 10 DraftKings in that one. With a target share hovering around 25% and the game has one of the highest totals of the weekend.
D/ST – Of the 14 teams that sacked the quarterback at least 41 times, nine made it into the postseason which I find interesting and the Cardinals defense is in that club. They also had a 25.9% pressure rate and finished sixth in total DVOA, 11th in points allowed per game, and the fifth-most turnovers. When two divisional teams meet for the third time in a season, the results can be a little unpredictable but they can be slightly lower scoring than expected as well. With LA having some issues on the offensive side of the ball, I can get behind the Cards as a play this weekend but am still searching for ways to get to Buffalo.
Cash – Kyler, Ertz
GPP – Edmonds, Conner, Kirk, Green, D/ST
Rams
QB – Any time the real Matthew Stafford wants to enter the chat, that would be great. It is very interesting to note that since Robert Woods was lost in Week 9 to his ACL injury, Stafford has chucked 11 of his 17 interceptions. That hasn’t been the only factor but Woods was sort of a calming presence in this offense and these two things sure seem related, even if it’s not the only reason. Stafford’s last performance with no turnovers happened to come against this Cardinals defense for 23 DraftKings points and on the season, he finished third in yards and yards per attempt. Arizona was fifth in DVOA against the pass and 14th in yards per attempt as well, while Stafford was also ninth in points per dropback. I would personally rather play Dak at this point but that’s a personal preference.
RB – If you want a flier running back, Cam Akers could fit the bill. He’s barely above the site minimum on DK and he touched the ball eight times last week while playing 20% of the snaps and running seven routes. Seeing three targets on seven routes is somewhat interesting and he had three red-zone touches as well. If we’re getting whiffs that Akers involvement is going to be cranked up, he can shatter his salary on 12-14 touches. I don’t think there is much stability and the potential outcomes include under eight DK points. The thing is he is so cheap that the reward could really outweigh the risk, but we need to monitor practice reports this week. After going on about Akers, it has to be noted that Sony Michel still had 22 touches last week and he could be the counter for me saying Mitchell is the only one that has 20 touch upside at $5,500 or less. Let’s see what happens during the week and Arizona was sixth in DVOA against the run but also allowed 4.6 yards per attempt, 26th in the league.
WR – It took 19 weeks of NFL action, but I am Team Fade Cooper Kupp this week. Stix was on this train more than I was this year and it truly has nothing to do with the past couple of weeks where he didn’t go nuclear. It has everything to do with he’s the most expensive player on the slate by nearly $1,000 and I’m not convinced he outscores every other receiver to make that gap worth it. He led in every possible statistic and threatened receiving records but the salary cap is not his friend. As of now, this is a bold stance because he’s projected as the highest rostered receiver. I will say if I can punt JuJu that may change things a bit, but I stand firm in Deebo being the highest scoring receiver on the weekend. This isn’t a justification for the fade but it is funny his worst game of the season came in Week 4 against this defense.
Trying to figure out Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson is much more of a challenge. There has been very little separation since Week 10 between these two and Jefferson has the lead in yards at 338-287 but OBJ has more receptions at 25-21 and touchdowns at 5-3. Both Antonio Hamilton and Marco Wilson are questionable, so let’s circle back when we have a better idea who’s alive for Arizona.
TE – Tyler Higbee finally found the paint twice last week but he only had three coming into the weekend. We had been saying every week that he had the red-zone work to back up the three touchdowns being a fluke and he finished first in those targets with 20 on the season. He deserved more than five scores but Arizona was in the top-five in yards and receptions allowed and no team allowed fewer than the two touchdowns they did (Denver tied). I can’t say that Higbee is a main target here this week.
D/ST – Of all the cheap options with the most potential, the Rams could be it. The Arizona offense has been hampered without Hopkins and their running back corps is beat up significantly. They were one of just three teams that hit 50 sacks or higher and they finished fifth in total DVOA, seventh in takeaways, and 15th in points allowed per game. At the rate he was sacked in 14 games, Kyler would have been right about 10th in sacks had he played all 17 games and the Rams are extremely cheap for this slate.
Cash – Kupp, Michel if the ownership dictates
GPP – OBJ, Jefferson, Akers, Higbee, D/ST
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