Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 7
Week 7 is almost here and we are at least spared the horrid Browns against the Broncos game that will happen Thursday night. I will say we get one game that the entire field wants exposure to and then some others that are just alright, so it will be an interesting slate. There may be only 10 games but we have a ton to get to in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 7 so let’s get rolling!
NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 7
Panthers at Giants, O/U of 42.5 (Panthers -3)
Panthers
QB – Alright so maybe I have to backtrack the Sam Darnold love a little bit. His box score looks worse than it should because his skill players dropped more than five passes last week, which really changes things. If he can’t get it done here, it’s time to worry. The Giants have allowed 14 touchdown passes which are tied for the third-most in football along with over 1,600 passing yards. On top of that, they are 24th in yards allowed per attempt and 22nd in DVOA against the pass. Darnold has got the volume that you’d like for the salary as he’s sitting ninth in attempts and being 16th in FPPD isn’t the worst-case scenario. We should note that the Panthers want to get back to the run and this is a great spot to do it in. Darnold is still a solid choice, but I would reserve him for GPP only.
RB – I’ll be interested in going right back to the Chuba Hubbard well this week. He’s now had three full games without CMC and has been over 13 DK in two of the three contests and he only has one total touchdown. The targets have been sketchier with two, three, and six but he does have at least 13 carries in all three games. His snap rate is only 59% but Hubbard has handled 88% of the attempts without CMC. With the volume already secure, we can add in head coach Matt Ruhle saying they need to be better at running the ball this week. That would leave Hubbard with a great chance of hitting 3x on his salary because the Giants are 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 25th in yards per carry, 27th in DVOA against the run, and 31st in rushing yards allowed against the running back. I wish there was a bit more security in the targets but a 9.7% target share isn’t the end of the world and isn’t enough to take me away from Hubbard.
WR – I’m not falling for the Robby Anderson trap any longer and D.J. Moore would be the only Carolina receiver in consideration for me. Moore had a down game last week but he’s still seventh in deep targets, seventh in yards and fifth in receptions. He’s also third in unrealized air yards so the breakout could be even better than what we’ve seen. The 29.6% target share is fifth in the league and if he sees James Bradberry, he might torch him right off the field. The corner for the Giants has taken a massive step back this year with a 2.37 FPPT, 138.8 passer rating, and a 73.3% catch rate. Moore would be able to have his way with him and the price is fair.
Update – Terrance Marshall is out and Anderson keeps getting targeted. He’s not doing anything with it but it would make plenty of sense that I would finally not want to play him only to see him go off.
TE – We can’t rust either Ian Thomas or Tommy Tremble as they both have a target share under 7%. Tremble may get the oddball score here or there but you can’t have the confidence to actually play him and it’s best to reserve these plays for showdowns.
D/ST – I absolutely love the Panthers defense this week. The Giants are going to be missing multiple important skill players in all likelihood. Carolina is eighth in total DVOA, has the third-highest pressure rate in football, and somehow has only managed to have six takeaways. The Giants have only allowed 12 sacks but with Carolina also allowing just 20.2 real points per game, we’re in business at this salary.
Cash – Hubbard, Moore, D/ST
GPP – Darnold, Anderson
Giants
QB – Speaking of having to backtrack, Daniel Jones had a vintage Danny Dimes performance and that is NOT a good thing. He turned the ball over four times and he had been so much better in that facet of the game that it was jarring to see. He’s going to be short on weapons yet again this week and that’s not going to help at all. Carolina has slipped a little in DVOA against the pass to seventh, but that’s not anything that’s vulnerable. Jones is also 25th or lower in deep ball completion rate, red zone completion rate, and catchable pass rate. The turnovers weren’t biting him but he also ranks fifth in passes that could have been intercepted and third in danger plays. With the offense beat up and facing a strong defense, Jones is not where I’m turning to this week.
RB – I said last week I wanted very little to do with Devontae Booker and that continues this week. Despite overly scoring 10.9 DK points, his salary went up by $100 and he’s yet to get much going on the ground in the past two games. He’s been given 28 carries and only generated 83 yards total rushing for under 3.5 yards per carry. The Panthers have allowed just 545 rushing yards against backs through six games and they also lead the league in receiving yards allowed against backs as well with just 71 yards. They have slipped to 18th in DVOA against the run but that’s not enough to be happy about playing Booker. The volume has been strong for Booker with a 79.7% snap rate and 82% of the attempts the past two weeks. It’s also not a great matchup, salary, and there’s not a strong reason to go here. The Panthers gave up a strong game against Dalvin Cook last week, but Booker is not Cook.
WR – Much like the past three weeks, we’ll circle back to here on Friday. We know that Sterling Shepard is playing and Kadarius Toney will be out. In every game Shepard has finished, he’s seen at least nine targets and he’s run 60% of his snaps from the slot. That could leave him in A.J. Bouye for most of the game while Bouye has given up nine receptions on 14 targets. He’s not a corner I’ll actively avoid at this point and Shepard is extremely cheap for the upside and floor. Darius Slayton and Kenny Golladay are both still questionable so we’ll update this portion on Friday.
Update – It’s now Friday and I’m not sure how much clarity we actually have. Yes, Golladay is out now but there are murmurs that Shepard suffered a setback with his hamstring. They could be down to John Ross, Darius Slayton (who is still questionable), and Dante Pettis. The fact that Pettis is still on the active roster likely gives you plenty of information on the state of this corps. When things were dire last week, he did see 11 targets and if Slayton and Shepard are both out, he could be worth a shot at minimum salary.
TE – The Giants have really needed someone to step up with their injuries and Evan Engram has not answered the bell. He’s yet to go over five receptions, 55 yards, or 9.5 DK points. His target share is 13.5% but the aDOT is just 5.8 yards and there has only been one red-zone target. With the salary on the wrong side of $3,500, I’m not overly interested.
D/ST – The way Darnold has been playing lately, you could argue that the Giants are worth a punt here. I’m not sure I’d buy it with only the 30th ranked pressure rate and sitting 25th in total DVOA. Darnold was also sabotaged to some extent by his teammates last week and I’d be looking for another option since New York has only generated eight turnovers on the season.
Cash – None if Shepard does turn out to be inactive
GPP – Pettis, Engram any receiver that actually makes the lineup at this rate
Jets at Patriots, O/U of 43 (Patriots -7)
Jets
QB – I simply can’t do it. I still think not everything lies at the feet of Zach Wilson and fully believe in his long-term upside but he has a 4:9 TD: INT ratio and is barely over 1,110 passing yards through five games. New England is 16th in DVOA against the pass and 20th in yards per attempt allowed but Wilson will be on the road and this is just a horrible spot. The rookie is 31st in pressured completion rate, 31st in clean completion rate, and just 27th in catchable pass rate.
RB – Michael Carter is starting to take the role we want for fantasy on this Jets offense, taking over the lead in the snap rate at 42.7% but most importantly leading in carries at 47. Neither Ty Johnson nor Tevin Coleman are over 26 carries and he’s got the lead in targets among the Jets backs with an 8.4% target share. Having said that, I don’t want to try and go after him against the Patriots. I will grant you that he was fine in the first game against New England with 10.8 DK points but the Patriots defense also utterly destroyed this team in the first game. I don’t expect that to be wildly different this week and even at a lower salary, I don’t think we need to dip into this poor of a matchup. New England is sixth in yards per carry allowed and 17th in total rushing yards allowed while sitting ninth in DVOA against the run. Interestingly, the Patriots defense has also faced the eighth-most carries while the Jets are 31st in attempts per game and just over 20.
WR – I don’t really have interest in either Jamison Crowder or Corey Davis but I would give a slight lean to Crowder. He’s a bit cheaper and he’s been playing over 58% of his snaps in the slot. Since his return from injury, his target rate is 30% and that would rank ninth in the NFL. Jonathan Jones has played most of the slot snaps for New England and he’s given up a 67.9% catch rate across 28 targets to go with a 1.70 FPPT. Just remember you’re relying on Wilson to get the ball there. Davis will likely see more J.C. Jackson who has been targeted 43 times and only allowed a 58.1% catch rate. I would suspect that Belichick takes Davis out of the game and forces Crowder and Wilson to move the ball.
Update – I can’t move him into cash, but Jones is out for New England and that make my eyebrow rise for Crowder. He’s a very experienced receiver out of the slot and that is a notable loss that could fly under the radar.
TE – Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft have been splitting snaps and they both have snap rates over 63%. However, they’ve also split targets at 15-10 in favor of Griffin and he has the lone end zone target. With target shares under 9% and relying on a rookie quarterback in New England, that’s going to be a pass for me.
D/ST – The Jets have been much better on the defensive side of the ball than we all thought, although they still rank in the bottom 12 in total DVOA. It’s more they haven’t been a doormat and they do have the fourth-highest pressure rate and blitz about 26% of the time. The Patriots offense hasn’t been anything super scary to this point and New York does have 13 sacks. The turnovers aren’t there with just four but the price is low enough you can play them coming off a bye week.
Update Linebacker C.J. Mosley is doubtful and that’s not going to help this defense in the least. They’re still cheap enough to consider but I don’t love it.
Cash – D/ST
GPP – Crowder
Patriots
QB – I can’t ever fully get there with Mac Jones and I don’t see that changing this week. He remains super cheap but there’s a reason for that. In this offense, it’s not built for ceiling games. Jones has played pretty well but his high watermark is 275 yards, he’s thrown more than one touchdown twice, and 17.9 DK points have been the ceiling. Going against the Jets doesn’t scream that he’ll need to throw the ball 40+ times and if Jones doesn’t have volume, he has nothing so far. He’s only 28th in FPPD and 24th in yards per attempt. The accuracy has been impressive as he’s top 10 in pressured completion rate, clean completion rate, and true completion rate. It just hasn’t translated to fantasy success yet.
RB – It looked like Damien Harris was not going to be able to play last week but he suited up and handled 19 touches for 108 scrimmage yards and a score. He is very easily the leader in carries on this squad with 81 but he’s not going to give you hardly anything in the passing game, which means you have to be picky with his spot. This would check the boxes of what we want with New England being favored and the Jets ranking 21st in rushing yards given up in total and ranking 17th in DVOA against the run. I don’t think we can trust Rhamondre Stevenson at this juncture to actually play him but he did make the most of his eight touches with 62 total yards, three receptions, and a touchdown. All that does right now is add instability to the backfield so Harris remains an option, albeit not the safest one.
WR – The day would have looked a lot different for Jakobi Meyers had he not had his first NFL touchdown nullified by penalty. He is still easily the target lead in this corps with a 25.1% share, he’s ninth in routes, and he is 11th in receptions. The metrics support still playing him but the lack of touchdowns certainly hampers any upside. Additionally, I’m not sure how cash viable he is because we don’t project the Patriots to be trailing that much here. Meyers only has four red-zone targets on the season and zero end zone targets, so it’s best to leave him be in my eyes. I won’t put any stock into the long touchdown from Kendrick Bourne last week since he only has. an 11.6% target share on the season.
TE – Hunter Henry made the most of his two targets last week with a touchdown but there was not much else to write home about. He did extend his streak of double-digit scores to three games and does lead Jonnu Smith and Henry is also 10th in routes among tight ends with 30.6% coming from the slot. The price isn’t great but Henry is inside the top 12 in receptions, yards, and points per game. He’s the clear choice among Patriots tight ends with the metrics at hand.
D/ST – I fully expected to dismiss the Patriots defense just based on price but they are actually very affordable for the matchup. I wouldn’t expect 19 DK points like last time but the Pats are still 11th in total DVOA, they have eight takeaways, and the Jets have turned it over nine times through just five games. New York has also surrendered 18 sacks and a pressure rate of almost 30%, so New England is probably my favorite choice at their salary.
Cash – D/ST
GPP –Henry, Harris, Stevenson
Chiefs at Titans, O/U of 58 (Chiefs -5.5)
Chiefs
QB – Patrick Mahomes continues to turn the ball over at a somewhat scary rate by his standards but it also just doesn’t matter when you’re throwing for 397 yards and two scores. Mahomes is third in total attempts and red zone attempts, not to mention sitting in the top 10 in air yards and passing yards. Mahomes leads the league in touchdowns and he’s eighth in FPPD. The largest issue to pick on is he’s 16th in pressured completion rate and 14th in deep-ball completion rate. This could be the nuclear game since Tennessee is 27th in DVOA against the pass and are 27th in yards allowed per attempt. His salary should have come up more than $100 this week.
RB – Based on what we saw in the first game with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams is not expensive enough. He handled 21 rushing attempts and saw half the running back targets with four. Williams was also trusted with all the red-zone work on top of that with three total carries. With that snap share and a 21-3 carry edge on Jerick McKinnon, Williams is still extremely interesting in one of the best offenses in football. He should not be under $6,000 for this role or matchup. Tennessee is 21st in DVOA against the run and this is just an easy plug and play in my eyes.
WR – This game has what is easily the highest O/U of the week and even though some performances were a little bit average last week, the Titans defense can be had. I typically will go to Kelce before Tyreek Hill but this week is an exception. I think he could go totally nuclear and he’s sixth in air yards, third in yards, first in receptions, ninth in yards per route, and seventh in red-zone targets. Not a soul in this Titans secondary can hang with him and they have allowed the most yards to receivers, the second-most receptions, and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed. Wheels. Way. Up. I’m not overly concerned about his quad as of Friday night, and the same goes for the next player.
If you cannot afford Hill, I’m even totally fine for Mecole Hardman. Normally I’m pretty skeptical but he’s been carving out a more reliable role with a target share of 15.3% and he’s tied for second in red-zone targets behind Kelce. I’m not mentioning the corners because they are not relevant against this passing offense.
TE – The longer Travis Kelce goes without an eruption game, the closer he gets to the next one. Tennessee has been strong against the tight end so far but they haven’t faced much from the position. Additionally, they have allowed two touchdowns on just 17 receptions against tight ends. Kelce is second in routes, first in targets, fourth in target share, and first in receptions and yards. He’s just a monster and you simply can’t go wrong playing him.
D/ST – I don’t expect this defense to be able to mount any resistance against the Titans run game so I’m not interested here, even at a lower salary. They have one of the worst defenses by many metrics, regardless of the game against Washington.
Cash – Mahomes, Hill, Williams, Kelce
GPP – Hardman
Titans
QB – This is the make-or-break week for Ryan Tannehill. He has to be able to generate something against this putrid Chiefs defense, even though Washington struggled last week. I will be honest that Tannehill’s metrics look pretty rough. He is not top 20 in yards, air yards per attempt, play-action completion rate, true completion rate, and an awful 33rd in deep ball completion rate. Things have been bad, and they will stick with the run as much as possible. However, KC is 31st in DVOA against the pass and 30th in yards allowed per attempt. If other pieces of this game are chalky with Tannehill being ignored, it could be a great spot for leverage in GPP.
RB – Is a projection for Derrick Henry to rush for 250 yards and three scores too high? Or is it not high enough? His breakaway run to the house this past week was simply breathtaking and men this size should NOT be able to move this fast.
The Chiefs have only faced the ninth-fewest rush attempts from backs so far but they are giving up a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, third-worst in football. They are also 31t in DVOA against the run so the boxes are all checked for Henry. We know the Titans are going to involve him no matter what and there’s little reason to believe that Henry doesn’t have the ability to pay off his high price. Henry’s targets have gotten lower lately but it really hasn’t hurt him and it shouldn’t be a total deal-breaker in this spot. This is one of the worst run defenses in football and Henry is going to feast.
Update – Lineman Taylor Lewan is out but that does not shift my view of Henry. His rushing prop is set above 120 yards.
WR – We’re going to assume that Julio Jones is out seeing as how he didn’t practice and left the Monday night game with a hamstring injury again. A.J. Brown came to life in the second quarter and he would be in line to do it again even if the Chiefs get back Charvarius Ward this week. It’s been a slog for Brown this year between injuries and other issues with his quarterback, so his metrics look rough. What we do know is that roughly 31% of the air yards share and 18.4% of the target share would be up for grabs if Julio sits. Brown will see a lot of it and he already leads the team in targets, end zone looks, and total air yards. He makes so much sense as a run-back option.
Update – In an unexpected twist, Julio has been practicing in a limited fashion this week. If both of these receivers are active, I’m interested in both and I fell far better about Tannehill.
TE – Part of me wants to play Anthony Firkser because he’s got a chance to score but the metrics don’t really support it. He’s 46th in routes and 50th in points per game, not to mention that the target share is only 10.7%. Perhaps if Julio is out, I can get on board slightly more but the Chiefs have allowed three scores and the most yards against the position.
D/ST – Kansas City does lead the league in turnovers but it’s just not enough for me to willingly pay for a defense that has every chance to give up 35+ points.
Update – Pass rusher Bud Dupree looks like he could miss which would make the path even harder on the Tennessee defense.
Cash – Henry
GPP – Brown, Julio, Tannehill, Firkser
Washington at Packers, O/U of 48.5 (Packers -7.5)
Washington
QB – This section will need an update later in the week. Taylor Heinicke is the nominal starter still but coach Ron Rivera had to address if he was going to continue to start. Ryan Fitzpatrick may have a chance to get back for this game, although that is very murky at this point. Green Bay is 19th in DVOA against the pass but they are also fifth in yards allowed per attempt. Given the projected game script, Washington’s starting quarterback could have value but we need to figure out exactly who that is.
RB – Antonio Gibson continues to be banged up, nursing a shin injury and now a calf injury the required an MRI. It’s an important injury to monitor because J.D. McKissic is second on the team in total targets and has a 14.1% target share. You’re not going to confuse him with a traditional running back anytime soon because he only has 25 attempts on the season. That would likely come up a little bit if Gibson would be out but facing a negative game script, McKissic could wind up being valuable no matter what. It’s a weakness for the Packers thus far as well as they have allowed the seventh-most receptions against running backs. Let’s see what the practice reports bring us and circle back.
WR – It’s hard to think that the late addition to the injury report didn’t have a negative effect on Terry McLaurin last week. He had eight targets but he only turned that into 28 yards and four receptions. It was a massive dud and he’s already missed a practice this week. If he can log some type of practice, I’ll have an interest. Green Bay is down multiple corners and would be vulnerable. McLaurin is 12th in routes, third in air yards, and second in unrealized air yards on the season. I just need to see him doing football activities before I bite again. Past McLaurin, we need to see what’s going on later in the week. Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown are both questionable at this juncture.
Update – Samuel and Cam Sims are both out but it looks like Brown will suit up. McLaurin would still be my main focus here.
TE – The metrics held firm for Ricky Seals-Jones last week as he played almost every snap again and he’s had a 17.7% target share in those two games with the team lead in red zone and end zone targets. The quarterback is relevant here because Heinicke has had some solid chemistry with Seals-Jones while Fitzpatrick would be a little more unknown. Having said that, RSJ is still under $4,000 and is a very appealing option in what projects to be a negative script.
D/ST – Washington is getting a pressure rate of almost 27% but they aren’t getting the sacks yet with just 12 on the season. They have forced seven turnovers but are 29th in total DVOA and face one of the best quarterbacks to ever throw a football.
Cash – Seals-Jones
GPP – TBD on Friday
Packers
QB – The Washington pass defense has been among the worst this season and they sit 28th in DVOA and 25th in yards allowed per attempt. I still have to point out that Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been spectacular for fantasy this season, ranking just 13th in points per game. You coal argue he’s a bit overpriced for being just 23rd in attempts and 23rd in yards, but he is 11th in FPPD. The biggest knock this season has been the accuracy deep, which he ranks 27th in deep-ball completion rate. Having said some of this, I won’t take Rodgers off the table. The spot is way too good and we just saw Mahomes threaten 400 passing yards. Based on what we have in front of us, Rodgers can throttle this defense if he chooses to.
RB – This has some earmarks of an Aaron Jones spot since he’s guaranteed 15+ touches in every game and remains fourth in red zone carries and second in red-zone targets. Washington has given up almost 900 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns already against backs, the most in the league. The game script projects to be positive and while A.J. Dillon has at least 11 touches in the past three games, the Packers are running the ball almost 26 times per game. There’s enough meat on the bone for Jones to eat and Dillon to have a role as well. The box scores haven’t been spectacular outside of one game but even with Washington sitting 12th in DVOA against the run, Jones can easily get it done.
WR – The decision between Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams is a difficult one. Adams is going to feast against this defense which he does about every single week with the highest target share in the NFL at 36.3%. He is also seventh in red-zone targets, first in yards and receptions, second in air yards, and third in yards per route. William Jackson and Kyle Fuller are the top corners but both have surrendered at least a 1.60 FPPT and a passer rating of 98.0. Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard are still under a 9% target share on the season so it’s very difficult to get onboard there. Cobb wasn’t even targeted so Lazard would be the preferred target if you’re going full passing game.
TE – There is not a tight end of fantasy relevance on the Packers roster.
D/ST – If the Panthers and Patriots weren’t right there, perhaps I’d be more interested. Green Bay is still 23rd in total DVOA but they have faced nine turnovers. The pressure rate is fine at 24% but Washington has only allowed a 20.7% pressure rate on the season.
Cash – Adams, Jones
GPP – Rodgers, Lazard, Cobb
Falcons at Dolphins, O/U of 47.5 (Falcons -2.5)
Falcons
QB – For all of Matt Ryan’s faults this year, he has three games over 22 DK points and three of the past four. He’ll be getting his number one receiver back in the mix and one aspect that really helps him is sitting fifth in red-zone attempts. His play-action completion rate is one of the highest in football at 76.7% and you can make the argument that he’s starting to jive with the new coaching staff. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll take on a Dolphins team coming back from London and their defense has absolutely fallen off a cliff. They have only generated two interceptions compared to 13 touchdowns allowed and rank 26th in DVOA against the pass. This game could well wind up shooting out.
RB – Maybe we’re taking too much away from one game that left the Falcons short-handed, but the Cordarrelle Patterson usage in Week 5 was encouraging. He played almost 60% of the snaps and had 14 carries against 13 for Mike Davis and Patterson added on nine targets. Now, he’s not going to see nine targets every game but he will continue to have a role in each facet of the game. Patterson has logged six targets or more in every game but the first and he’s continuing to carry the ball enough. There is a discussion to be had that he might be too expensive (he certainly is on FanDuel) but there’s something to be said for the role being more important than snap rates. Miami has given up 951 scrimmage yards against backs with nine touchdowns. It’s not the most traditional path but with the matchup at hand and averaging over 15 touches per game, I’m interested. Davis is in play as well but he’s much more of a cash option than GPP. We should still get 12-14 touches at the salary, which isn’t bad.
WR – Calvin Ridley is $6,600. I’m not sure I thought I would ever see this. He’s 28th in targets despite only playing in four games to this point and eighth in target share. His share of the air yards is 48.8% and that is the third-highest in the league and he’s seventh in red-zone targets. Ryan has been playing better and we used to avoid this matchup with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside. Both of those corners have allowed an FPPT of at least 1.75 and a passer rating over 100. They have not played up to their standards this year and Ridley is far too cheap. I don’t believe he’s safe enough to be a cash play but for GPP there is no question. Russell Gage looks like he’s ready to come back but he’s behind Ridley, Pitts, Patterson, and even Davis in target share on the season.
TE – I’m not sure I want to spend this much but the Kyle Pitts breakout game wasn’t solely due to Ridley being out. All of his metrics were screaming big things were going to happen for him. Among tight ends, Pitts is inside the top 12 in routes, slot rate, air yards, red-zone targets, receptions, routes, unrealized air yards, and points per game. That is all with having one less game than the majority of other tight ends. Miami has given up three touchdowns and Pitts is being utilized as a receiver. It’s just a question of the cost.
D/ST – Miami might have some issues offensively but trotting out the Falcons defense is a tough sell. They are 30th in total DVOA, they have the sixth-lowest pressure rate, and only have three turnovers forced on the season. It’s difficult to advocate for that, even as a value play.
Cash – None
GPP – Ryan, Ridley, Pitts, Patterson, Davis
Dolphins
QB – I’m not sure I’d suggest watching the film from the last game because there were some really shaky moments for Tua Tagovailoa but he wound up scoring 25 DK and he’s still very cheap in a great spot. It’s also fair to point out he was missing multiple receivers, so that’s to be factored in. In his playing time this season, he’s 19th in FPPD which is certainly not special but he’s also thrown just 78 passes total. I’ve said this for a while with Tua but it’s so hard to judge him with so little time on the field. I’m willing to stack him in GPP since he is so cheap to get access to the Chiefs/Titans game and it’s a good spot. Atlanta is just 30th in DVOA against the pass and 18th in yards per attempt allowed. Top that off with an 11:1 TD: INT ratio for the Falcons, and Tua could easily hit 20 DK points again.
RB – I can’t possibly imagine having any confidence in playing Myles Gaskin this week. In the past five games, four of them have seen Gaskin log five carries or fewer. Three of those games saw Gaskin score under 10 DK points and the lone outlier was a 10 reception game with two scores and we can safely cast that aside as anything to grasp on to. Things really bottomed out last week in London when Gaskin only played 35.7% of the snaps and touched the ball just seven times. If this turns into a triple-headed monster, it will be impossible to glean any value here. As it was, Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed both had almost the same amount of touches as Gaskin. On top of everything else, most teams get a bye week coming back from London. This is not ideal for Miami, whose season is spiraling fast regardless of the fact Atlanta is 24th in DVOA against the run.
WR – Jaylen Waddle would be interesting again if the receivers from Miami were out. Last week he was missing both DeVante Parker and Preston Williams so Waddle was fed the ball for 13 targets and he found the end zone twice. If those two are back, this situation does get a lot tougher to decipher. Waddle does lead in target rate and red zone target share so he does have that going for him but with his teammates missing games, it’s hard to tell if that’s going to continue. He’s been playing a ton in the slot at almost a 59% rate and he is eighth in receptions and seventh in routes. Avery Williams has only been a very part-time player but likely covers the slot now and he’s allowed five receptions on five targets. We need to know who’s available before deciding.
Update -Parker and Williams are both questionable after limited practices all week so they could turn this corps into a mess. If all the receivers are active, I’d rather just play the next man on the list. Parker would likely see a lot fo A.J. Terrell, who has played much better this year.
TE – One of the reasons I’m hesitant to pay for Pitts is Mike Gesicki is still just $4,700 and that’s crazy to me. Through the last four games, he’s scored at least eight DK points and has a minimum of six targets. He leads the position in snaps from the slot and air yards share at 25.8%. All of the sudden, Gesicki is also in the top six in receptions and routes and he thrived with Tua under center, a nice step. Granted, the Dolphins were thin at receiver but it’s still an encouraging sign and Gesicki can be a major weapon in this offense. Atlanta has given up three touchdowns on just 18 receptions against the position so Gesick has a chance to score this week as well.
D/ST – What happened to this defense? I know they were down corners last week but they are still 26th in total DVOA and the pass rush has barely gotten a 22% pressure rate. The seven turnovers are fine but nothing special and they didn’t even look that good against the Jaguars, of all teams. I would definitely make an effort to get to any of the three defenses directly above them.
Cash – Gesicki
GPP – Waddle, Tua, Parker, Gaskin
Bengals at Ravens, O/U of 47 (Ravens -6.5)
Bengals
QB – Joe Burrow dipped back under 30 passing attempts this past week but that had much more to do with the score than anything else. That facet should change this week because Baltimore’s offense is much higher quality than the Lions and Burrow is 13th in yards and fourth in yards per attempt, helping mitigate being just 24th in attempts. Burrow is also third in deep ball completion rate and second in catchable pass rate, speaking to his accuracy so far. Baltimore is just average in DVOA against the pass and after they shut the door on the Chargers, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Burrow not be popular at all.
RB – It was nice to see Joe Mixon back and scoring gobs of fantasy points last week and his price did not move all that much. One of the best aspects of last week was Mixon getting six targets because that had been an issue. His target share is still only 9.4% which is not special but maybe isn’t the largest surprise given the receiving crew for the Bengals. The Ravens matchup is a tough one to gauge, honestly. They have allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards against backs but the most receiving yards. The yards per carry allowed would back up the stoutness of the rush defense as Baltimore ranks 11th in that aspect as well and 13th in DVOA against the run is not bad at all. Having mentioned that, Mixon is second in the league in carries. That volume is not typically available at this salary.
WR – Ja’Marr Chase finally didn’t score this past week but still scored 13.7 DK on just six targets. He has just been an explosive play waiting to happen every single week with a reception of at least 34 yards in every week. His air yards share is second in the NFL and the yards are fourth while he runs the sixth-highest yards per route. Chase likely draws some of Marlon Humphrey and he’s only allowed a 47.1% catch rate across 34 targets and I’m not the biggest fan of Chase this week. I’m not convinced that Burrow has time to find him much with a 15.7-yard aDOT.
If he’s having trouble getting the ball out, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd (to a lesser extent) could be interesting. Higgins has a higher target share than Boyd and would be my choice, although corner Anthony Averett has only allowed a 58.1% catch rate. Just going by the matchup would put us on Boyd out of the slot against Tavon Young who has allowed a 1.96 FPPT across 14 targets. I still side with Higgins but Boyd could be very sneaky.
TE – Sometimes, tight ends score a touchdown and we shouldn’t go overboard. That is the case for C.J. Uzomah who only had three targets and recorded 15 yards to go with his touchdown. The target share of 9.4% is not encouraging considering who else is in the offense.
D/ST – Baltimore has too many ways to beat you and even though Cincy has been a strong defensive unit this year, it’s risky. The Bengals have gotten through six weeks as a top-five unit in total DVOA, which is very impressive. They have only generated six turnovers so far which is a small problem and the pressure rate is under 23%. I’m going to pass against one of the better offenses in the league.
Cash – Mixon
GPP – Burrow, Higgins, Boyd, Chase
Ravens
QB – What a weird game from Lamar Jackson last week. He threw for under 70 yards and only had one total touchdown, but the Ravens offense moved the ball and put up points. I think it’s pretty easy to just say variance and move along because Jackson is still an elite play. It will be interesting to see how the field treats him after he burned a lot of folks last week. Cincinnati is eighth in DVOA against the pass but Jackson is 10th in yards, fifth in yards per attempt, fourth in FPPD, and 10th in deep-ball completion rate. The offense got more dangerous in the passing game with Rashod Bateman joining the lineup last week and Jackson kicks in the third-most red zone carries and the most rushing yards among quarterbacks. I wouldn’t let last week dissuade me at all.
RB – It is Week 7 of the year 2021 and we’re possibly considering Le’Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman as options in the Ravens backfield. Life comes at you fast. Latavius Murray was forced from last week’s game and could miss some time. If that happens, this is going to be a tougher backfield to figure out, in honesty. Bell and Freeman both played under 35% of the snaps and had nine and eight carries. Freeman certainly did much more with his work than Bell with a 5.9 yards per carry against 2.3 yards for Bell. Freeman also held an edge in red zone carries at three to two, although Bell had the one carry inside the five. Cincinnati ranks eighth in yards per carry allowed but with the Ravens run game (fourth-most attempts and yards on the season), the matchup isn’t always that important. Both would be in play without Murray, and I would give Freeman a slight lean.
Update – Murray is out and I stand by everything said in this analysis.
WR – It was super encouraging to see Bateman come off the IR and walk into a snap share over 60% and tie for the team lead with six targets. It didn’t translate for a lot of production but he is still nearly minimum and he only ran 19 routes. Both the boundary corners in Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple have been good this year with a 1.42 FPPT or less to this point.
Not to be forgotten, Marquise Brown is still there as well and he’s been phenomenal but things could get very crowded, very quickly. Baltimore is only 25th in passing attempts on the season and that’s just not likely to change. Sure, Hollywood is 10th in yards and seventh in deep targets with five touchdowns but we could see a lot more games of 5-6 targets for every cog in this passing game. I think you’re going to have to pick your lane and not stack Lamar with more than one option for right now.
Update – Sammy Watkins is out and Bateman enters the cash conversation for me at this point.
TE – Mark Andrews has been awesome this year, even though the perception wasn’t great about two weeks ago. He’s scored three times and leads the position in yards and is second in receptions, not to mention sitting second in air yards and deep targets. He’s such an integral part of the offense that the matchup doesn’t exactly matter, including the Bengals. The price is fair and I have no issues playing him at all.
D/ST – The Ravens unit is still in play even though the Bengals have weapons. They have a pressure rate of 26% and a blitz rate of 32% and the blitz rate is top-five in the league. Burrow has been brought down 16 times this year and they’ve turned the ball over eight times. As much as Burrow has flashed at points, seven interceptions is a lot, and Baltimore sitting at home under $3,000 is interesting.
Cash – Jackson, Freeman, Andrews, Bateman
GPP – Brown
Lions at Rams, O/U of 51 (Rams -14.5)
Lions
QB – When the coach is openly saying you need to play better on a rebuilding franchise, that’s not a great sign. Jared Goff finds himself in that exact spot and has to face the fourth-best DVOA defense against the pass. Gross. Three of his five games have been under double-digit scores on DK and we can’t even rely on garbage time at this point. Even Blake Bortles was good for garbage time back in the day. In the past four games, Goff has thrown a combined four touchdowns and that is despite being top-five in attempts on the season. He’s 29th in FPPD and there is no compelling reason to play him, even at such a low salary.
RB – Here we go again with D’Andre Swift. With his role in the receiving game, Swift is in play at this salary against just about everyone. Only Najee Harris has seen more targets among running backs and that alone is interesting. He’s splitting time with Jamaal Williams and he’ll take carries but Swift is still averaging 11 carries per contest. This game should have a very negative script in a hurry as the Lions are heavy underdogs. Swift also gets the ball when it matters most, leading the team in red-zone targets and carries. The Rams are 20th in yards per carry allowed as well, which continues o be a little surprising. With the Detroit defense not likely to mount much resistance here, Swift could have a chance at 6-7 receptions and a score. It’s plenty to chase at this salary.
WR – Both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond feel gross and unnecessary with how poorly Goff is playing. St. Brown has a 21.4% target share over the past two weeks, almost double Raymond so I would focus there. He’s been in the slot for 66% of his snaps and has been getting some volume, but that also puts him against Jalen Ramsey for a huge part of the game. He’s slid into the slot for 43% of his snaps and is only allowing a 1.36 FPPT on the season. You’re only playing Lions as a run-back option this week and I would rather go with Swift or our next player.
TE – T.J. Hockenson finally woke up a little bit even though it took a massive 11 targets to get him there. I still have little confidence after Coach Campbell was calling out Goff in the press conference but the metrics are so hard to ignore. Hockenson has been inside the top 10 in points per game, yards, receptions, air yards, and red zone targets. The Lions should get pummeled on the road and the Rams have allowed the 10th most yards on the season against tight ends. If you’re stacking the Rams, he’s one of the options for a run-back.
D/ST – There is no reason to go here.
Cash – None
GPP – Swift, Hockenson
Rams
QB – If you’re a key play on the Rams, you’re in a smash spot this week and it starts with Matthew Stafford. He’s third in touchdowns, second in yards per attempt, and eighth in red zone attempts even though he’s just 17th in attempts overall. This is something of a “revenge” game which I’m sure others will point out. Just keep in mind, Detroit worked with him to get him out so he didn’t have to endure another rebuild at this stage of his career. I’m not sure how much animosity there is considering he got traded to an incredible landing spot. Detroit is 25th in DVOA against the pass and dead last in yards allowed per attempt. Stafford should be able to carve them up at will.
RB – If you thought Darrell Henderson was chalk last week, get ready for this week because he’s going to be extremely popular. He’s a heavy home favorite and continues to be the workhorse for one of the best offenses in football. Henderson played 81% of the snaps and racked up 21 total carries with five red zone attempts and two attempts inside the five. Sony Michel only saw 18% of the snaps and had nine carries, which is not enough to worry about him stealing work from Henderson. Detroit is 18th in yards per carry allowed and even though he missed a full game, Henderson ranks 13th in carries across the league. Having a salary under $7,000 makes him one of the strongest plays on the board, especially in cash.
WR – If you wind up not paying up for Adams or Hill, Cooper Kupp has to be next on your list. He’s just destroying everything set in front of him and he showed even in a total boat race, he can still have a massive game. He is first in receptions, second in yards, fourth in yards per route, fourth in slot snaps, and first with seven touchdowns. It’s not crazy to think he scores again and he has given us exactly zero reasons to not play him every week with the highest target rate in football.
Robert Woods is a fine option and I don’t think they go too long without feeding him more targets than last week, but Van Jefferson has my eyes. DeSean Jackson has seen his relevance dwindle the past couple of weeks with just one catch in each of the last three games and just seven total targets. Meanwhile, Jefferson has 14 and he also has the highest aDOT of the three main receivers. With Detroit allowing the highest yards per attempt, Jefferson sporting a 13.1 aDOT is very appealing.
TE – I can’t find the reason to play Tyler Higbee ahead of Gesicki or others we haven’t got to yet. Higbee is fine but sits fourth in the offense in target share at 12.6%. He’s involved since the routes are 11th but Higbee is also under 40 among tight ends in air yards and target rate. You can fall back on him being ninth in receptions but you get so much more for your dollar if you just move to Gesicki.
D/ST – I fully expect them to have a great game but there is a 0% chance I ever pay $5,000 for defense on the main slate. That’s all that needs to be said.
Cash – Henderson, Kupp, Stafford
GPP – Woods, Jefferson
Eagles at Raiders, O/U of 49.5 (Raiders -3)
Eagles
QB – Jalen Hurts is a very bizarre evaluation. I’ll be the first to tell you – I’m not a pro scout and I’ll never pretend to be. When I’ve watched the Eagles offense this season, I’m not sure if they know what the identity is or how they plan to consistently move the ball. It seems like they put Hurts in shotgun and tell him to have at it. There are almost no designed plays past receiver screens to get the ball into their hands and let them do their thing. Hurts has been very inaccurate, sitting 29th in catchable pass rate and 27th in true completion rate. He’s also just 18th in passing yards and 19th in passing touchdowns.
The man is the QB5 for fantasy this season. His rushing production puts him over the top with five rushing scores and 300 yards on the season. He will always be in play for any format, you just have to look away until the game is over.
RB – Can we get Miles Sanders some carries, for the love of goodness? He has 29 carries in the past four games combined and has managed 141 rushing yards on minimal work. I’d love to have full confidence in playing him but I suppose if I did, he also wouldn’t be just $5,100. Vegas is allowing the seventh-most yards per carry on the ground so this is a great spot to finally have a big game and Hurts struggled badly last week. I think the whole offensive system really leaves a lot to be desired but the easiest fix on the fly is to simply run the ball more. With Sanders, talent isn’t the question. It’s the number of touches he has but in this game, I’ll be happy to play him in GPP because when he blows up, it’s going to be a huge score in a tournament with Sanders vastly underpriced.
WR – The only player we can really consider is Devonta Smith and even then, I’m not likely. I’m a believer in his talent but the utilization leaves something to be desired. Smith has the seventh-highest air yards share in the league but he’s outside the top 30 in yards and receptions. It tells you something when his air yards share is so high but the yards per route is 80th. He is wildly inconsistent and has to be GPP only. The corner duo of Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs have played well on top of it. Hobbs has only allowed a 1.52 FPPT while Hayward is at 0.73, good for the 11th best in the league.
TE – Zach Ertz is now in Arizona and as long as Dallas Goedert is off the Covid list, he is very interesting. His metrics are not that great but if you combine Goedert and Ertz together, the targets share is a little over 27%. I’m not saying Goedert gets every single target but that is a big shift in the offense. We have to project since Goedert’s routes and targets are paltry but it does help immensely that Vegas has allowed the fifth-most yards, the second-most receptions, and four touchdowns. The matchup in that aspect is pristine and I’m willing to bet he sees some type of extra work.
D/ST – Philly has one of the lowest pressure rates in football and only 11 sacks, not exactly ideal. The six turnovers are mediocre and they are only 18th in total DVOA. The Raiders have allowed the third-most sacks in football but I’m not sure that’s enough to get super excited about the Eagles. At their price point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re the cash game pick for the majority of the field.
Cash – Hurts, Goedert
GPP – Sanders, Smith
Raiders
QB – Derek Carr enjoyed his first game under a new head coach, going for 341 yards and two scores. Now he faces the Eagles coming off a mini-bye week, and they rank 12th in DVOA against the pass and eighth in yards allowed per attempt. Carr is very affordable for ranking second in yards and third in attempts, despite the tougher matchup on paper. He’s only 23rd in FPPD but the volume is helping overcome that mark and he’s only thrown 10 touchdown passes. He is around $5000 too cheap but I don’t want to go there in cash unless he’s wildly popular for some reason.
RB – This is quietly a good spot for Josh Jacobs, even though I’m not a strong fan of the salary. He continues to be the man in the Raiders backfield when he’s healthy and he tacked on another 17 touches last week. In the past, Philly has been stout against the run but that’s changed this year as they rank 25th in DVOA against the run and have given up the fifth-most rushing yards against backs on the year. They have faced the second-most carries n the season but that goes back to their offense not being all that good this season. Jacobs is locked into 15 touches or more and has plenty of opportunities to score in this one as well with 11 red zone carries in just four games.
WR – Henry Ruggs has one of the most distinct roles in football and it’s the deep ball. He’s third in deep targets, ninth in completed air yards, and 17th in yards per route. Now, he’s barely in the top 50 in targets overall so you’re not banking on volume and that leaves him GPP only. He also gets a tougher matchup with Darius Slay, who has only allowed a 1.34 FPPT and a 9.8 YPR. Ruggs has the speed to get by anyone but it’s not the most ideal spot ever.
Hunter Renfrow will draw Avonte Maddox in the slot and he’s only allowed a 53.8% catch rate on 13 targets. Renfrow is mixing in as one of the main options with Ruggs and the next man we’re going to talk about. Prior to last week, he had at least six targets in every single game and still carries a little bit of value on DK.
TE – I will continue to be a little underweight on Darren Waller. Since Week 2 has started, Waller is the TE8 in PPR formats and he’s almost 20 points behind the top three players. Waller only has 23 receptions in those five games and just a 20.2% target share. While nothing about that is objectively bad, it’s certainly not worth paying up for with the other options. The fact that Ruggs continues to be getting more involved has put a cap on Waller, at least as far as production has gone this year. The only saving grace is Philly has been abjectly awful against the position with five scores allowed and the third-most receptions allowed. I’m not telling you to not play him at all, just to be aware of how this offense has been running for most of the season.
D/ST – I wouldn’t argue anyone playing the Raiders against this version of the Philly offense. It’s dysfunctional to be sure and Vegas has a pressure rate over 26% on the season. They also blitz under 14% of the time so they may be able to limit the damage Hurts can do on the ground. He’s only been sacked 12 times and Vegas has forced seven turnovers while giving up just 23 points per game.
Cash – Waller
GPP – Ruggs, Carr, Jacobs, Renfrow
Texans at Cardinals, O/U of 47.5 (Cardinals -17.5)
Texans
QB – If you ever wanted me to believe in a conspiracy about the NFL being fixed, I think you could point to the Davis Mills game against New England in Week 5. He should have gotten whipped all over the field but he put up 312 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. I felt like I had missed something about him. It turns out that thought was misplaced because Mills went right back to barely exceeding eight DK points last week against the Colts. His scores so far in games he has started are 10.7, -0.32, 27.7, and 8.2. You tell me which you think is out of pocket. Arizona is second in DVOA against the pass and I’m not interested here.
RB – Houston got steamrolled last week and despite that, David Johnson only saw two targets so it suddenly seems as if even that aspect of the game is unstable for Johnson. It’s impossible to project the Texans to be in anything other than a very negative script this week. Arizona is the lone undefeated team in the league and it’s a “revenge” game for Johnson. There’s still no floor for him and if Murray winds up being out for Baltimore, I’d rather play Lev Bell or Devonta Freeman.
WR – Mills may stink but he can still support Brandin Cooks and he’s still too cheap. Cooks leads the league in air yards share and is 10th in air yards while sitting in the top 12 in receptions and yards. That’s a serious accomplishment with such a weak quarterback and all he does is produce. With the Texans checking in as one of the largest underdogs on the slate, Cooks is well in play in all formats.
The punt GPP play could be Nico Collins. He came back last week and played 57% of the snaps and had six targets. That was very encouraging and it’s the same principle of Cooks. If the Texans are going to be trailing, they need to throw an awful lot and there is a cheap opportunity here. He should avoid Byron Murphy who has been strong this year with only a 54% catch rate allowed. I’m fine playing Cooks against him as the more accomplished receiver.
TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance on the roster.
D/ST – There is no chance I’m going against the Cardinals after last week. They were down multiple coaches and the quarterback was banged up and it didn’t matter in the least.
Cash – Cooks
GPP – Collins
Cardinals
QB – I will never tell you don’t play Kyler Murray ever again. I wanted nothing to do with him last week and he bludgeoned the Browns defense with four touchdowns on just 229 passing yards. If we’re spending up I do still prefer Mahomes because Murray continues to not run many times (seven is a bit misleading because some were scrambles and he totaled just six yards) and that facet of his game hasn’t been needed nearly as much. He’s second in FPPD and fourth in red zone attempts, rising his ceiling every single week. Houston is 11thin DVOA against the pass but 29th in yards per attempt allowed. Murray is always in play and I’m betting everyone just plays Mahomes in this range.
RB – I’m likely not playing either but if you go this route and believe the Cardinals roll, James Conner is the guy you want to chase in my eyes. There is a noticeable swing in his carries when the Cards win by multiple scores since he’s had at least 16 carries in three games when Arizona won by more than 14 points. That outcome is certainly in the realm of possibility and Chase Edmonds has not been doing much since he’s had an injury to deal with. He’s only generated a total of 84 scrimmage yards in the past four games and 40 of them came on one rush attempt. Houston is 29th in DVOA against the run and is 28th in yards per carry allowed With both players at the exact same salary, Conner would be my choice as I think he’s got a good chance to do some work in the fourth and hit pay dirt.
WR – I’m not buying into DeAndre Hopkins still because he only had three receptions last week for just 55 yards. I will stand firm in him being a WR2 masquerading as a WR1 in salary. The target share is only 39th in the league so if we want those kinds of metrics, why not play A.J. Green or Christian Kirk? The main two corners of Houston are Vernon Hargreaves and Terrance Mitchell, both of whom have a FPPT of at least 1.79. Kirk is 19th in yards per route and has a target rate of 21.7% while Green is seventh in red-zone looks. They all rotate around and the latter two have slot rates above 30% on the season.
TE – Without knowing just how much Zach Ertz will play in this game, it’s hard to decide on playing him. The price could wind up being cheap because Maxx Williams had a 10.8% target share. That’s not a ton but in one of the best offenses in football, it was working in some weeks. The Texans are in the bottom-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns so even if Ertz just plays in the red zone, there is touchdown upside. Maybe the practice reports give us some clues this week.
D/ST – Arizona checks in as a strong option once again and it’s a little funny to see the defense that is averaging the most DK points on the slate sit at $3,100. They are second in total DVOA and have the second-highest pressure rate in football, generating 17 sacks and 13 turnovers. Mills is getting pressured over a quarter of the time and Arizona is super affordable.
Cash – Kyler, D/ST
GPP – Kirk, Green, Conner, Hopkins, Edmonds
Bears at Buccaneers, O/U of 47 (Bucs -12)
Bears
QB – Justin Fields got what we wanted last week as far as trailing on the scoreboard and a great defense to face…and he threw the ball 27 times and had 14.3 DK points. Fields only rushed the ball six times and is still struggling to complete passes, with a 53.5% completion rate. He’s 31st in yards per attempt and only 30th in catchable pass rate. Tampa has been decimated by injuries and sits just 18th against the pass in DVOA but Fields is still a very tough sell for me. The Chicago passing offense general looks brutal right now. He’s 33rd in pressured completion rate and Tampa is going to do their best to get after him.
RB – We’ve seen running backs have some success in the passing game against this Bucs defense and that’s the only route you can take. They are second in yards per carry allowed and fifth in DVOA against the pass and Chicago will struggle to run the ball. What I’m going to be interested to see is if Damien Williams is off the Covid list. If he’s not or he’s not ready to play yet, Khalil Herbert has flashed in his time on the field. The receiving chops are still questionable at the NFL level with just two receptions on three targets but both backs are priced at an appealing level. Williams would have the better end of receiving work but the largest fear is the totality of the offense. They couldn’t get a lot done against the Packers defense, which is far worse than Tampa.
WR – I’ll let Mike Clay sum this up –
No, I don’t want to play Allen Robinson this week. The Bucs secondary is decimated but when the offense is dysfunctional, it doesn’t matter. Ask the Eagles how that went.
You could twist my arm to play Darnell Mooney who has performed better with Fields and in the past three weeks, he has a target lead of 20-15 over Robinson. Mooney also has a red zone target while Robinson has zero. Still, it is very risky GPP only for playing Mooney.
TE – If you wanted to get nuts, Cole Kmet can be considered as a punt option. His targets have gradually come up in the past three games and he leads in red-zone targets. Granted, that’s just two targets but it still counts. The Bucs are tied for the third-most receptions given up and they’ve also given up four touchdowns.
D/ST – I’m not playing any defense against this Bucs offense, it’s a terrifying proposition.
Cash – None, Herbert could be considered if the backfield is his again
GPP – Mooney, Kmet
Bucs
QB – There is not a lot of quarterbacks that I’m interested in at $7,700 with no rushing ability but Tom Brady breaks the mold. Yes, Chicago is sixth in DVOA against the pass but they are also 19th in yards allowed per attempt and the matchup is always secondary for Brady. He is first in both attempts and red zone attempts, first in yards, second in touchdowns, third in points per game, and 12th in FPPD. You can’t ever go that wrong playing the GOAT.
RB – I don’t think I’ll pay the price tag very much this week, but Leonard Fournette has taken over this Bucs backfield and it’s not particularly close. The snap rate is still just 59.8% on the year but it’s approaching 70% in the past three games and he’s soaking up around 70% of all running back attempts. On top of that, an 11.5% targets share is quite the cherry on the sundae. I would point out that his last three games of at least five targets likely don’t stay put because Rob Gronkowski has missed those games. It’s hard not to think those two things are not related. Having said that, the volume for Fournette is undeniable and they will be in a positive script almost surely. The matchup isn’t all that bad either, with Chicago 13th in yards per carry allowed and 23rd in DVOA against the run. He’s pricey, but not totally off the table and if his targets stick with Gronk back, the floor is much safer as well.
WR – I think it’s going to be another Antonio Brown day. There is a solid chance that Jaylon Johnson of the Bears could be trailing Evans a lot in this game and he’s only allowed a 1.35 FPPT and a 77.6 passer rating. Brady has shown he won’t go after matchups that he’s not crazy about and Brown has been red hot lately with at least 24 DK in his past two games. AB has a 31.1% target rate and is seventh in yards per route on just 55.6% of the snaps. He’s a case study in snaps sometimes being overrated. Chris Godwin has been a bystander lately for the most part but he’ll get a lot of Duke Shelley in the slot. Shelley hasn’t been poor with only a 58.3% catch rate but that’s not enough to scare Brady. I’d rank them AB, Godwin, and then Evans for this one knowing that Evans still has a giant ceiling.
Update – The Bucs passing games will be missing two key cogs in Brown and Gronk. I expect Godwin to stick in the slot a decent amount and Shelley has moved to a DNP on Friday, not a good sing for Sunday. I would be surprised if Godwin does not see 8-10 targets this week and Tyler Johnson enters the fray in GPP. We’re looking at the minimum salary and even in just 30% of snaps, he has 14 targets compared to three for Scotty Miller a right about the same snap count. Godwin is likely a lock for me in cash games on DK.
TE – Gronkowski has still not practiced as of this writing, but it’s only Wednesday so let’s not overreact quite yet. We’ll update this on Friday and see what it looks like. Cameron Brate has taken a backset in snaps to O.J. Howard over the past two weeks and Howard has doubled him up in targets at 10-5. He would be my pick if you stack with the tight end.
D/ST – Tampa still has a ton of injuries on this side of the ball and even in a great matchup, they are heavily overpriced. Fields is getting pummeled with 18 sacks taken through just four games but I can’t justify $4,000 with the other options on the board.
Cash – Brady, Godwin, Fournette
GPP – Evans, Johnson
Cash Core 4
Derrick Henry, Darrel Williams, Darrell Henderson, Chris Godwin
To the surprise of nobody, Henry has taken over the highest ownership projected on this slate. Pair him with Rashod Bateman to fit it and let’s ride!
GPP Core 4
Miles Sanders, J.D. McKissic, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill
With Henry now moving further up the board in ownership, there is an opportunity to spend down at that position and then in turn, spend up on elite receivers and tight ends.
Stacks
Chiefs/Titans – It’s the same drill as last week in that we want as much as we possibly can from here. Henry/Hill/Kelce/Hardman/Brown/Julio/Williams and both quarterbacks are all in play.
Lions/Rams – Kupp, Stafford, Henderson, Jefferson, Woods, Higbee – Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson
Washington/Packers – Adams, Jones, Rodgers – Run Backs – McLaurin, McKissic, Seals-Jones
Falcons/Dolphins – Gesicki, Tua, Waddle, Parker – Run Backs – Ridley, Patterson, Pitts, Ryan
Bengals/Ravens – Jackson, Andrews, Bateman, Brown, Freeman – Run Backs – Higgins, Mixon, Chase, Boyd, Burrow
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