Adam Strangis We are back for Week 6 after a very strong Week 5 that saw a ton of scoring on all fronts! The slate is smaller this week with bye weeks starting up so always be mindful to narrow that player pool. Even with a smaller slate, we have a lot of work to do in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6 and find our paths to green screens!
NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6
Texans at Colts, O/U of 43.5 (Colts -10)
Texans
QB – I was 100% wrong on Davis Mills last week as he put up 27 DK points in a wildly impressive effort against New England. I would still tend to think that was an aberration and not something we should chase. Mills is only 26th in FPPD, 23rd in pressured completion rate, and 32nd in clean completion rate. What’s interesting with Mills is the way to get to the Colts is through the air as they sit 30th in DVOA against the pass and they have given up the most passing touchdowns at 15 despite facing the fourth-fewest attempts. I suppose that if you play 20 lineups, you can make the argument but we have a very strong value at the position that I already love.
RB – We can continue to safely avoid the Texans running backs for DFS. David Johnson has taken over the lead in snaps at 42% but also sits third in carries behind Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay. Johnson is second on the team with 16 targets (yes, that qualifies for second on the Houston offense) but that’s barely three targets per game. It’s not enough to try and guess right for Johnson and the scoring upside is non-existent. Ingram will get the majority of the rushing attempts with three games over 13 carries on the season, but only one time has that resulted in more than five DK points. There’s no tangible reward for going this contrarian, even on a smaller slate.
Update – If you needed more reason to skip these backs, lineman Laremy Tunsil is out as well.
WR – We faded Brandin Cooks last week facing the Patriots but it’s a really good time to get back on board. Cooks was very quiet last week as we predicted but even after the dud, Cooks still is third in air yards share at 47.5%, second in target rate, and inside the top 12 in receptions and yards. The quarterback play is far from a guarantee but Cooks gets such a massive share of the passing game and he’s so inexpensive that I feel comfortable playing him in all formats. Indy could be without Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes this week, leaving Cooks with an even more appealing matchup.
Past that, Chris Moore popped up this past week with the injuries the Texans are dealing with. He was signed to the actual team from the practice squad and caught all five of his targets on 62% of the snaps. Danny Amendola was out and Moore has played 42% of the snaps from the slot, so he could be a punt but he needs Amendola to remain out. Let’s see what the week of practice brings us.
Update – Amendola is questionable coming into the weekend but never logged a full practice all week.
TE – Both Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins continue their timeshare at the position with at least 54% of the snaps but neither has a target share over 9%. Even at the minimum price, there is no particular reason to punt especially with the tight end I already have my eye on.
D/ST – The Texans defense sits 25th in sack percentage, bottom five in pressure rate, and sit 15th in total DVOA. While they have generated eight turnovers so far, Indy is giving up just a 25% pressure rate. Houston is cheap so maybe I would use them as a total punt if I loved the rest of the lineup, but that would be the extent of it.
Cash Plays – Cooks
GPP Plays – Mills, Moore if Amendola is out
Colts
QB – You can consider Carson Wentz and I can guarantee that GravMatt will be playing him in at least one lineup. The Texans are ninth in DVOA against the pass, which is higher than we would expect. The 7:6 touchdown to interception ratio is solid as well. Wentz is only 21st in FPPD but he’s third in deep ball completion rate at 50% and 12th in clean completion rate. The Colts are just 14th in attempts but at this salary, it could only take one or two deep balls to pay off. I would prefer the running game for the most part in this contest, however.
RB – Jonathan Taylor had the breakout game that we’ve been hinting at for the past couple of weeks but it came through the air for the most part with 116 receiving yards and a score. His 9.6% target share is not the worst ever, but he’s also fifth on his team in targets so I’m not sure we should continue to expect massive games receiving. What we do love is his continued work in the RZ as JT sits third in RZ carries and has just one touchdown. That will not continue and Houston is 30th in DVOA against the run and has given up 562 yards on the ground. The mid-range in running back is crazily crowded this week but Taylor is absolutely in that mix and he could have another monster game, this time coming from his rushing production.
WR – It may not be the largest pie out there but Michael Pittman has all the metrics of an alpha receiver that we want. He has a 25.3% target rate, six RZ targets, is ninth in routes run, and has an air yard share of 36.7%. Pittman is also 11th in receptions and inside the top 20 in yards on top of that, so the salary is fairly low. What could throw a monkey wrench into things is T.Y. Hilton has returned to practice for the first time this season. With him back in the mix, it nixes Paris Campbell and Zach Pascal out of my builds, assuming all three are healthy. I still would fully expect Pittman to be the alpha but would have concerns about how the share is divided. Any matchup on Venrnon Hargreaves or Terrance Mitchell of Houston would not concern me.
Update – Hilton is expected to be back this week but we will know for sure Saturday. If he’s back, I’d be a little less likely to mess with this corps. It would be fairly amusing if Hilton had a big game because historically, he’s smashed the Texans at home. It’s just not the best idea fresh off the IR.
TE – If you wanted to take some kind of chance with the Colts, you could take a swing at Mo Alie-Cox who has started to take targets from Jack Doyle. Over the past three weeks, Alie-Cox has 11 targets to just four for Doyle and he’s had three EZ targets in that time as well. He did score twice and without a touchdown, you may not get much production out of him but the Texans are tied for the most touchdowns, they have allowed the fourth-most yards and the second-most receptions to the position. He would be on my radar if you’re playing 20 lineups or more, although I plan on spending up at the position.
D/ST – Well, at least this unit isn’t $4,900 like the Patriots were last week. The Colts are fine at the salary as Mills still has gotten sacked 11 times already and Indy has forced nine turnovers through five weeks. They are right in the middle of the pack in sack percentage at 6.1% so if I wind up with $3,500 left, I’d be fine playing them. I won’t go out of my way to jam them in. Additionally, the Colts are 23rd in total DVOA so there is nothing special here.
Cash Plays – Taylor
GPP Plays – Pittman, Hilton, Alie-Cox
Packers at Bears, O/U of 44 (Packers -4.5)
Packers
QB – Can you play Aaron Rodgers on any given Sunday? Of course. It’s Aaron Rodgers. However, this is not going to be a week where I’m actively going after him. Chicago is fourth in DVOA against the pass and they have only allowed the 12th fewest yards passing in the league. That never matters much to Rodgers but he is just 15th in FPPD, ninth in touchdowns, and just 21st in passing yards. Rodgers is 21st in attempts as well and it does help his cause that he is fifth in RZ attempts. Given the slate in front of us, I’ll have other targets as a higher priority.
RB – It can be frustrating to play Aaron Jones. There’s nothing wrong with playing one of the best backs in football but the ceiling game can be hard to capture and A.J. Dillon is a thorn in his side for fantasy production. I’m not saying we should but into Dillon scoring over 17 DK last week because he’s not going to go 4/49/1 in the receiving game very often. What I’m saying is Dillon has 33% of the attempts from the position and he’s split the targets by a 10-20 split with Jones. With Dillon taking a third of the work, it does make it harder for Jones to go nuts even though it is very obviously possible. The price is solid at $7,300 for Jones and in fairness, he’s eighth in carries and 15th in targets among his position. Only three players have a higher number of RZ attempts than Jones and he is tied for third in RZ targets. The matchup is not the friendliest since the Bears have allowed 456 yards on the ground and only 176 through the air. It will be interesting to see how the field treats him but I’m betting he slots in as a very strong GPP play as a pivot off the passing game.
WR – All hail Davante Adams who remains one of the safer bets in fantasy. Despite being only 22nd in routes run, Adams is first in targets, first in air yards, fifth in air yards share, third in deep targets, fifth in RZ targets, and first in target rate, receptions, and yards. The scariest part of all of this is he only has two scores so far and ranks fifth in unrealized air yards. He’s the WR4 on the year and has a much larger ceiling to get to as well. He will Miley draw Jaylon Johnson who has had an outstanding year thus far with a 41.2% completion rate allowed on just 17 targets. Additionally, he’s sitting at a 0.95 FPPT and I felt out do not care. There’s not a corner in the league that can shut down the Adams/Rodgers connection.
Randall Cobb came back to Earth last week with only three targets on just 54.7% of the snaps. That’s going to leave him as a touchdown or bust candidate although rolling in the slot against Duke Shelly is an advantage for Cobb. Shelly has allowed a 77.8% coach rate on nine targets and Rodgers could try and pick on him a little bit with Cobb. Allen Lazard continues to be the “WR2” in snaps at 85.9% but he’s a cardio king with just a 7.1% target share since the Packers lost Marques Valdez-Scantling to injury.
TE – I will continue to ignore Robert Tonyan with a running back-esque 10.6% target share and just nine receptions on the season.
D/ST – I suppose you can play the Packers defense as they scored seven DK last week without two of their most important players. I don’t love the salary since they sit just 20th in sack percentage and bottom-eight in pressure rate. The saving grace is the takeaways have been there with eight and the Bears have already allowed the second-most sacks in the league. I do wish they were more around the $3,000 range. They are also just 20th in total DVOA, speaking to where they are as a unit.
Cash Plays – Adams, Jones
GPP Plays – Rodgers, Cobb, D/ST
Bears
QB – It appears that Justin Fields will be able to make it for this game but I’m not sure how interested we should be. If the Bears have their way with this game, Fields isn’t going to throw a whole lot as he has not exceeded 20 attempts in any game. He does get the ball downfield with the seventh-highest air yards per attempt and he’s eighth in deep ball completion rate. I would bet this is going to be the best day for Fields fantasy-wise out of necessity but Green Bay is 17th in DVOA against the pass and this could go south in a hurry.
RB – While I firmly believe that Damien Williams is still a strong play, Khalil Herbert emerged as a very strong option as well. They were splitting this backfield a lot more than most of us foresaw. Now, Williams got the only three targets for the running backs and he held an advantage in RZ carries at 3-2 and 2-1 inside the five. Herbert had more carries at 18-16 and gained 11 more rushing yards. He played extremely well and even though he had no receiving work, he remains under $5,000. The Bears are eighth in rushing attempts on the season and clearly want to run the ball and play defense to win games. They aren’t going to put the game in the hands of Fields if they can avoid it and the best way for them to win is to keep Green Bay off the field. The Packers are 18th in yards per carry allowed so far and if Herbert manages to score, he could be a great value. What makes that play even better in GPP is Herbert is a direct pivot off one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. Williams has the likeliest chance to pay off since he’ll get the passing work (it appears) but both backs are extremely viable.
WR – I don’t know how anyone can have the slightest bit of faith in Allen Robinson or Darnell Mooney. I grant you that the Bears may well have to abandon the run in this game but if not, the production will likely remain minimal. Since Fields took over as the starter, Mooney leads with 16 targets while A-Rob has 14. Neither has a RZ target and neither has an aDOT above Mooney’s 11.9-yard mark. They have only averaged around eight points per game and the offense has frankly been miserable. I would still want to play Robinson because he may draw the majority of Kevin King, who has long been a target of ours. He’s only been targeted six times in his two games but has allowed a 26.6 YPR and has an absurd 4.05 FPPT. If A-Rob can’t get it done here….I don’t know what else to say. Mooney could see some of Chandon Sullivan or Eric Stokes and he has the speed to get by them. It’s just a matter of the ball getting there.
Update – Kevin King is out and Rasul Douglas (who has been a Packer for about two weeks) will be forced into action. A-Rob has only gotten in one limited practice but there doesn’t seem to be much of a concern he misses the game.
TE – I feel like Cole Kmet should be better with a 15.8% target share but he only has one single RZ target. That’s as many as Jesper Horsted who has played just one game. The only way you go here is if you think the Packers start scoring at will and the Bears can’t stick within the game plan. Past that, there’s no reason to go there.
D/ST – Green Bay only has five turnovers on the season and Rodgers has been sacked just 10 times. While Chicago is fifth in total DVOA, first in sack percentage, and has seven takeaways…it’s hard to go against Rodgers and company. They’re not even overly cheap, either.
Cash Plays – Williams
GPP Plays – Robinson, Herbert, Mooney
Chiefs at Washington, O/U of 56.5 (Chiefs -6.5)
Chiefs
QB – We’re in Week 6 and the QB1 is Patrick Mahomes, to the surprise of nobody. He’s expensive to be sure but he should be and he sits sixth in attempts, fifth in RZ attempts, seventh in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in FPPD. What is crazy so far is the deep ball completion rate is just 33.3%, 23rd in the league. The matchup is pristine as well since Washington is 29th in DVOA against the pass, has given up the seventh-most yards, and the second-most touchdowns. It doesn’t get that much better as far as the matchup goes.
RB – I said we had a chalky play and I’m talking about Darrel Williams. With the news Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing the next couple of weeks, Williams will take the reins in this backfield and had been taking some chunks out of the backfield work. Coming into this game, he had 20 carries and five targets as the backup in the previous three games. I would be surprised if he doesn’t take the lead and Jerick McKinnon takes the change of pace role. We’ll keep an eye on the practice reports and the coach speak through the week, but Williams appears to be the next man up. For the most part, this is just a salary play. You’re getting the main running back in an excellent offense for under $5,000. As it stands, there is not much to overthink here. Washington has oddly given up six touchdowns receiving already in addition to two rushing touchdowns. With almost 600 scrimmage yards allowed, Williams has a shot for at least 80 all-purpose yards and a score which is well worth his salary.
WR – I’m going to assume the next position we talk about is chalk because the price is egregious. However, that makes Tyreek Hill one of the most elite GPP plays on the slate if popularity shakes out as I suspect. Hill is way more expensive and the path of least resistance is just playing the tight end. Reek is still 15th in routes, second in receptions, fourth in yards, and 10th in unrealized air yards. He’s also ninth in yards per route and the target rate is sixth in the league. William Jackson will draw some of the work against Hill and he’s been the lone corner that’s played alright with a 1.53 FPPT. Hill kicks into the slot 38.4% of the time so the matchup isn’t super important.
I suppose you can take a stab at Mecole Hardman who has a 16.4% target share but just a 14.9% air yards share. He rotates into the slot as well but with only three deep targets, it’s a harder sell.
Update – There was some mild concern about Hill not practicing until Friday, but there seems to be no danger of him sitting at this point.
TE – Every week, we talk about how much we’d love to get Travis Kelce in our lineups but he’s typically at least $8,000 and it can be difficult. He might be coming off two slower games but the man is $7,000. We have value at running back already to make it pretty easy to afford Kelce and a player like CMC, at least I believe so. Kelce is third in routes, first in receptions, second in receiving yards, second in unrealized air yards, and fourth in target share. For context, Darren Waller was more expensive last week. This price does not make sense and he is one of my highest priorities as things stand.
D/ST – The Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in football by almost every measure. They rank dead last in total DVOA, 31st in sack percentage, have just four turnovers forced and are allowing an average of 31.4 points per game. That’s enough said right there.
Cash Plays – Mahomes, Williams, Kelce
GPP Plays – McKinnon, Hardman
Washington
QB – New Orleans is fifth in DVOA against the pass so maybe it’s not a surprise that Taylor Heinicke struggled last week. Well, this week is a new week and Heinicke is in a massive bounce-back spot for under $6,000. This Chiefs defense is the stone worst right now and they have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the league. He is 14th in FPPD which is not that bad for a backup and Heinicke has been pretty fearless with the ball. That can be a double-edged sword when the defense is good but the Chiefs defense is very much not that. I have zero fear with Heinicke this week and he might be one of my favorite options on the board at the position this week. He’s just too cheap in a game that carries the highest O/U on the slate.
RB – Antonio Gibson continues to play with a stress fracture in his shin, which is kind of insane to hear for an NFL running back. Gibson is not getting the receiving work we all wanted but he is also sixth in carries across the entire NFL and ninth in rushing yards. While we didn’t see the Bills really hammer the Chiefs on the ground, they just made their bones through the air and Washington should be more balanced. They just miss out on the top 10 for rushing attempts per contest and the Chiefs have allowed the third-most yards per carry at 5.2 yards and almost 700 scrimmage yards. Gibson should be able to find plenty of success on the ground and even with a slightly lower floor than may be perceived, it’s hard to pass on him under $7,000. J.D. McKissic has an 11% target share and if you think this game really goes up and down, you can save money and take the gamble with him. KC has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the backs and McKissic (and Gibson) can give this linebacker corps fits.
WR – This is about the textbook definition of smash spot for Terry McLaurin and he’s not expensive enough. I mean if he was $8,000 I’m not sure he’d be expensive enough. Since Week 2 when Heinicke took over full time, only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp have more targets than McLaurin. Only five players have a larger share of the air yards and only three have a larger share of the targets. He’s inside the top 12 in receptions, yards, and unrealized air yards and this could be a game where the yards get realized. KC has only seen the sixth-fewest receiver targets but has allowed almost 800 yards and seven touchdowns. McLaurin is going to eat and even if he sees Charvarius Ward, it will. Not. Matter.
Update – So the Chiefs are going to be without Ward and lineman Chris Jones. That is awful news for them but we need to keep an eye on McLaurin. He was added to the injury report Friday. Generally, that ends very poorly but Washington says it was very precautionary. Additionally, Curtis Samuel is out and Dyami Brown is questionable. Carter could well be a value in this game.
We’ll need to see how the practice reports shake out. Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown are both banged up and DeAndre Carter stepped up for 69.8% of the snaps and saw eight targets. He converted for 4/62 and if he has an elevated role, the minimum price is appealing as a punt to fit some other things.
TE – I can already tell you that I’m very excited for a Washington stack with a Kelce run-back and Ricky Seals-Jones would be part of that stack. He is far too cheap for the spot and he stepped directly into the Logan Thomas role with 98% of the snaps, had eight targets, three RZ targets, and two EZ targets. That absolutely plays at $3,000 and KC is tied for the fourth-most receptions surrendered to the position and dead last in yardage.
D/ST – Washington couldn’t slow down the Saints and despite their issues, Kansas City is much more talented than New Orleans. Even at just $2,000, I’m not touching them.
Cash Plays – McLaurin, Heinicke, Gibson, Seals-Jones
GPP Plays – Possibly Carter
Rams at Giants, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -9.5)
Rams
QB – Matthew Stafford is well in play this week as usual at the helm of one of the better offenses in football. Stafford is only 16th in attempts but he makes up for the slightly lower volume with the seventh-most deep attempts and the ninth-most RZ attempts. Stafford also sits third in yards, fifth in air yards, and eighth in FPPD. There is not much to hate on here as the Giants are 22nd in DVOA against the pass and they have given up 10 touchdowns so far. Stafford should have his way with this defense and I will certainly have a game stack with him at the center of it with other pass game options.
RB – It was an overall weird night for the Rams last Thursday night as the offense wasn’t exceptional in a smash spot and it appeared that Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel split work. Michel carried the ball 11 times but the vast majority of that came on one series when Henderson had an injury crop up with his arm. It was frustrating to see Michel poach a late touchdown but overall, I’m not sure we shouldn’t expect Henderson to be the lead dog in the backfield. He’s logged at least 16 touches every single game he’s played in and has a 7.5% target share in a crowded offense. With the Giants getting gouged on the ground to the tune of the third-most rushing yards of 615 through five weeks, Henderson has a dynamite spot. We played Zeke last week at $7,000 in this exact matchup and Henderson checks in $1,000 cheaper than that. With the volume we can expect, he’s a strong value on the slate.
WR – Cooper Kupp had a “down” game but still scored 16.2 DK points and Stafford missed him horribly on at least two targets, one of which would have been a touchdown. I’m pointing that out to prove that Henderson, Kupp, and Robert Woods can all co-exist within the same game in this offense. Woods was reintroduced into this offense with 14 targets for 12/150. It’s been a long time coming but the offense will always work better when both these receivers are thriving. Woods will draw some of James Bradberry which was a touch concerning last year but he’s struggled this year with a 2.24 FPPT and a 13.3 YPR allowed. Kupp is up to 56% in the slot and Logan Ryan will see the majority of those plays and he’s allowed a 70% catch rate on 10 targets. It’s much easier to play Woods now because McLaurin is right there cheaper than Kupp, but both are well in play. I would still reserve Woods for GPP just in case. Both Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson could take a deep ball but D-Jax only has 11 targets in the past three weeks compared to 16 for Jefferson. I will say D-Jax is number one in yards per route while Jefferson is 48th, so that speaks to what the roles are.
TE – The price is sort of up there for Tyler Higbee, although there is a safety that comes with him. He does have an 11.8% target share which is fine but my fear would be Woods coming on. Is there a ceiling that comes with Higbee if Kupp and Woods are getting the targets they did last week? At least for one game, the answer is no because he only saw two total targets. The touchdown saved him and in honesty, he’s in a no man’s land for fantasy. I will spend up or down, leaving Higbee alone in a game where we wouldn’t project the Rams to have to press the gas pedal to score.
D/ST – If you didn’t know already, look at what score the Patriots defense put up last week against the Texans offense. The Rams are facing the B team for the Giants in all likelihood but you would want around 15 DK points from them to pay off $4,700. I will have zero interest in that salary.
Cash Plays – Henderson, Stafford, Kupp
GPP Plays – Woods, D-Jax, Jefferson, Higbee
Giants
QB – We’ll have to update things later on in the week. Daniel Jones has to clear concussion protocols and that will dictate a good bit about the offense. Mike Glennon was barely passable in relief and we have enough of a sample of him in the NFL that we won’t look that direction.
Update – Jones is on track to play this week so perhaps he volume works out for him. The Rams are only 16th in DVOA so they haven’t been the scary matchup we’ve been accustomed to in recent years.
RB – I don’t want to cast him aside outright but I’m not sure how much Devontae Booker I will have on this slate. For $500 less, we can play Williams from KC, and for $600 more we can just play Henderson on the other side of this game. Booker scored twice and gobbled up snaps and touches in the wake of Saquon Barkley being injured last week. Now, Booker handled 88% of the snaps and 19 total touches on four targets, playing most of the game with a backup quarterback as well. That is a strong point in his favor because getting that style of volume at this salary is fantastic. I do think we project a game script where they trail so he has some safety built-in with receptions, especially if the Giants are still dealing with injuries to skill players. We may not have a ton of super expensive backs but the mid-range is super crowded this week. My early read is Booker is more than fine, but I like others better. The Rams have given up over 670 scrimmage yards so Booker is not off the table completely.
WR – As it is for the rest of the team, we can’t do anything until we see who is available for the Giants. Kadarius Toney completely broke out on Sunday and he’s moved around with 37.3% of his snaps in the slot. The 2.73 yards per route is 14th and he’s looked excellent with the ball in his hands and a very tough player to defend. Even if Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton come back, I’d be surprised to see Toney retreat to the bench. In addition, the Giants will almost surely be without Kenny Golladay. It could be another very big game for Toney, but we have to see who’s in uniform for the team. The good news is Jalen Ramsey won’t shadow and that is a giant help.
Update – Alright, here’s what we know. Shepard is back, Toney and Slayton are questionable, and Golladay is out. What that means for me is I would only look at Toney IF Slayton still sits. If all three are active, it’s probably a good time to be cautious. I would still prefer Toney of the three, since Shepard will see more of Ramsey from the slot. If Slayton is out, I’m much happier to play Toney.
TE – The Giants spent most of the game without Shepard, Slayton, Golladay, Jones, and Saquon. Evan Engram managed four receptions for 55 yards. It’s very difficult to have any faith in that and I’m playing Seals-Jones in nearly every lineup where I could theoretically afford Engram.
D/ST – We will also have zero interest on this side against one of the better offenses in football. They are only 28th in sack percentage and 29th in pressure rate. If you give Stafford and that group mostly free rein, they are going to put up a lot of points.
Cash Plays – Toney if Slayton is out
GPP Plays – Jones, Shepard, Booker
Bengals at Lions, O/U of 48 (Bengals -3.5)
Bengals
QB – This is a great spot for Joe Burrow as the Lions have allowed over 1,300 yards on the fewest pass attempts in the league. That would explain ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and Burrow is fifth in yards per attempt and 11th in FPPD. The only real issue holding him back is the lack of volume right now as he sits 26th in attempts and just 29th in RZ attempts. The kid gloves might be coming off with 70 attempts over the past two weeks and he’s been over 20 DK points in both games. Granted, one of those games hit overtime but still. I do like the spot for him to take advantage of the secondary and I think we see another long bomb touchdown with a certain receiver on the other end.
RB – This is absolutely a spot where you’re hoping either Joe Mixon is healthy and takes his normal workload (unlike last week) or he sits entirely. Mixon had just 10 carries and played only 28% of the snaps last week which frankly makes it look like an egregious decision to let him play. There was really no point to it. If we know he’s better this week, he joins the mid-range fray as an option as well. Much like Gibson, the passing work isn’t there like you hoped with just 10 targets on the season. With the Lions yielding 562 yards on the ground with six touchdowns already, Mixon may not need the passing work to put up a big number. The Bengals have to hope Mixon is better because Samaje Perine has entered the Covid protocols and will likely miss Sunday’s game.
Update – Mixon is said to be ready for a full workload this week according to coach Zac Taylor. If that’s the case, Mixon is not nearly expensive enough.
WR – It’s really hard to not have Ja’Marr Chase as one of the better plays at the position this week. He’s only trailing Randy Moss in fantasy points through the first five games of a career and that is extremely high praise. Chase has broken a reception of at least 34 yards in all five games and has found the end zone in four of five games as well for five total touchdowns. He has the highest air yards share in football, sits third in deep targets, and seventh in yards despite just 23 receptions. The past two weeks have been great for him with 19 total targets and he is the alpha in the offense, period. Detroit is down to their third and fourth corners as starters so there is no matchup to worry about.
I still will continue to stack Burrow with Chase and Tee Higgins as opposed to Tyler Boyd because when they have all been active, Boyd has 18 targets compared to 22 for Higgins. The second-year receiver has not hit under double-digit DK points as well and he should not be the cheapest of the three receivers. Make no mistake, Chase is the main target but Higgins is a strong secondary one in my eyes.
TE – Not that it was any kind of brave stance but I am happy to see C.J. Uzomah go back to fantasy irrelevance. The passing game will have a tough time sustaining the three receivers, let alone a tight end and Uzomah only has a 9.2% target share.
D/ST – This play makes plenty of sense since the Lions have allowed 14 sacks on a 26.3% pressure rate and Cincy is 13th in sack percentage. The Bengals have also forced five turnovers and sit seventh in total DVOA. The price is a hair higher than I’d want but it seems like that’s the case with every defense this week.
Cash Plays – Burrow, Chase, Higgins
GPP Plays – Mixon, Boyd, D/ST
Lions
QB – We’ve seen the floor for Jared Goff lately with under 10 DK points in two of the past three games. Cincinnati is still 12th in DVOA against the pass and has only allowed six touchdowns to this point. Goff is fifth in attempts but the volume isn’t always going to save him because he’s 27th in FPPD. He’s also thrown just seven touchdowns on the season and it’s very hard to have any sort of trust here. With multiple quarterbacks that are under $6,000, Goff is a fairly easy pass for me.
RB – The Lions backfield is the perfect example of why snap counts are important, but they are also just one tool in the toolbox. Last week saw D’Andre Swift play over 70% of the snaps and he rolled up 102 scrimmage yards with a score and added six receptions for a total of 17 touches. Just looking at that, you may think that Swift is taking over the backfield but not so fast. Jamaal Williams only played 32% of the snaps but he touched the ball 15 times. This approach from Detroit is completely understandable but it does cap the ceiling Swift carries every week. His salary is low enough that he is well in play and the Bengals are tied for the second-most receptions given up against backs. I like Swift for GPP but we can’t exactly trust him in cash with Williams soaking up so much usage. Swift should continue to be on the low side of popularity and with a team-leading 21.6% target share, he makes a lot of sense as a run-back for a Bengals stack.
WR – I’m not sure I want to mess with anyone past Amon-Ra St. Brown, who appears to be coming on in his rookie year with two straight weeks with eight targets. Now Quintez Cephus joins Tyrell Williams on the IR and there are not many bodies left. In the past two weeks, St. Brown has had an air yards share of 18.4% but has a 23.5% target share. No other receiver is in double digits in that time and St. Brown has been in the slot for 64% of the time, leaving him on Mike Hilton most of the time. Hilton has allowed an 82% catch rate and a 1.81 FPPT so St. Brown is still fairly cheap for his new role.
TE – The metrics certainly still point to T.J. Hockenson being an elite option at the position but the results have been….not good in the past three weeks. The total in those three weeks has only been 13.4 DK points on 13 targets and the price just isn’t really moving. He is still sixth in targets, eighth in RZ targets, fifth in receptions and eighth in yards but the bulk of it has come from the first two weeks. There has to be a big game coming with these types of metrics but I would reserve my Hockenson lineups for game stacks. The Bengals have yet to play any tight end of repute but they also have only allowed 153 yards to the position so far on just 16 receptions.
D/ST – There is a lot of risk to this play but Detroit is quietly fourth in pressure rate and sixth in sack percentage on the season. Joe Burrow has been brought down 14 times already and they have turned the ball over seven times, which is good news. The bad news is they also sit 30th in total DVOA so they could wind up getting gashed in every facet by the Bengals offense. Still, they are so cheap that if they can get 3-4 sacks and a turnover, that could be enough to get them there.
Cash Plays – Swift, St. Brown
GPP Plays – Hockenson, D/ST
Chargers at Ravens, O/U of 52 (Ravens -2.5)
Chargers
QB – Just putting aside fantasy for a minute, this quarterback matchup is the best of the weekend in my eyes and will be wildly entertaining to see Justin Herbert face off against another young gun. Herbert is coming off just a monster game (as is his counterpart) with over 45 DK points and he’s just playing phenomenal ball right now. He’s put himself on the forefront of the MVP conversation in the early going and his arm is flat-out special. After five weeks, he checks in fourth in yards, seventh in air yards, second in attempts, fourth in RZ attempts, and 12th in FPPD with the third-most touchdown passes. With Baltimore only ranking 20th in DVOA against the pass and giving up the fourth-most passing yards, Herbert is a dynamite play again this week in all formats.
RB – Perhaps the largest knock on Austin Ekeler coming into the season was the potential lack of RZ work. Well, he has answered that concern in spades as he is fourth in RZ rushing attempts and 11th in RZ targets among backs while averaging almost 25 DK points per week. Since Week 1 when he was fighting an injury, he’s had at least five targets in every single game and the low mark for touches is 17. He is a workhorse in about every sense of the word, so I don’t believe him to be overpriced at all. The matchup used to be scary but the Ravens defense isn’t quite as good as it has been in the recent past. Also, the Chargers offense is so difficult to defend overall and Ekeler is sixth among backs in receptions so the floor is high as well.
WR – I tend to think that Keenan Allen will close the gap a little bit on Mike Williams in fantasy points since Williams is leading 114.1 to 76.9 but I’m becoming less sure each week. Williams has just two fewer targets on the year but has a higher air yards share by almost 10%. Both players are in the top seven in receptions on the year and Williams holds a serious edge in yards at 471-369. He also has six EZ targets to three although Allen holds the lead in RZ targets at 9-5. This game is shaping up to be a huge shootout and my only beef with Williams is the price. He’s the WR3 and with the targets being so close, Allen at $6,400 is an easier play to fit in. Allen also plays in the slot a lot more and sees mostly Tavon Young in the alignment. Young has allowed a passer rating of 146.1 on nine targets so far while Williams gets Marlon Humphrey. He’s allowed just 13 receptions on 24 targets for a 1.75 FPPT. Both are well in play but I would prefer Allen just by a hair.
Update – Williams has not practiced all week and if he’s out, Allen is a stone cold lock in cash games.
TE – Donald Parham has had a touchdown heater with one in each of the past two games but he’s seen a total of five targets and has only carved out a 6.3% target share in those two games. Jared Cook is sitting at 12.7% and is still the much better and safer play for just $300 more. Cook is only on the field about 60% of the time but he’s eighth in routes and just outside of the top 12 in both receptions and yards. It’s interesting to see that he’s seventh in unrealized air yards and Baltimore has had issues with tight ends all year, by the numbers. They have faced Kelce and Waller so grain of salt there but Cook is always viable in a stack with Herbert and another Charger.
D/ST – It can be difficult to get too excited to play defense against the Ravens (i.e. the Lamar Jackson Show) because it can be hard to see any upside. The Chargers are only 16th in sack percentage and Jackson has been brought down 13 times. Baltimore only has six turnovers on the season and the Chargers have been so poor stopping the run, they could get trampled. LAC is also only 18h in total DVOA so they don’ seem to be the greatest fit ever.
Cash Plays – Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams
GPP Plays – Cook
Ravens
QB – Not to be outdone by Herbert, Lamar Jackson had a masterful game on Monday night. He overcame a bad fumble to post one of the best games of his entire career and put the Ravens squad on his back with a mind-boggling 504 yards of total offense. Jackson became the first player ever to throw for over 400 yards and complete at least 86% of his passes and I’m not sure the ’86 Bears were stopping him last week. His touchdown rate came up to 4.8% but is still lagging behind his career mark of 6.4% which means we should have more to come. Jackson is first in air yards per attempt, first in air yards, fifth in yards, fifth in deep ball completion rate, and second in FPPD. If you’re not playing one of the quarterbacks in the Chiefs game, this game is surely the next stop. The Chargers do rank 11th in DVOA against the pass but I’m not sure I care when Jackson is sitting at this salary.
RB – Baltimore had their streak of 100-yard rushing games snapped last week but they might get right back on track in this one. LA has been decimated on the ground and has given up the most rushing yards to backs in the NFL at 679 through five games. They have faced the seventh-most attempts but teams tend to attack your weakness and the tandem of Cleveland last week and Baltimore this week is a horrible 1-2 punch for the Chargers defense. Latavius Murray would likely be the lead back again but I’m interested to see if Ty’Son Williams has left the doghouse yet. We’ve said it before – YPC isn’t everything but when Murray sits at 3.4 yards for the season and Williams sitting at 5.5 in mostly the same offense is saying something. Williams has had issues with ball security and blitz pickup, which will get any back off the field in a hurry. It’s still a situation to monitor but one of these Ravens backs shapes up to be a fantastic play on Sunday.
WR – We should expect rookie Rashod Bateman to make his debut this week but the star of this corps is still Marquise Brown and the price is flat disrespectful. He’s averaging almost 22 DK points and is still under $6,000. He’s been moving around with 21% of his snaps in the slot so I’m not exactly worried about the matchup. Brown is eighth in yards, has scored five times, and if he catches even one of his drops in Detroit he would be a top-five receiver on the year. The Chargers boast Michael Davis, Asante Samuel Jr., and Chris Harris at corner but Brown has the speed to beat any of them on any play. Across the past 12-14 games dating back to last year, Brown has been one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy.
TE – Holy smokes Mark Andrews was great on Monday night. He made big catch after big catch and put up 44 DK points, which is just nuts. You obviously can’t expect that again but his salary was released before the game and he’s coming on a little bit. He’s been over 18 in two of his past three games and he’s fifth in routes, fifth in air yards share, second in total air yards, first in yards and second in receptions. Sure, one massive game helps a ton but the six RZ targets are fourth as well. We’re not going to see the Ravens pass so much very often, but the tools are all there and if you don’t go Kelce, Andrews is a phenomenal play here. The Chargers have allowed the third-most yards against the position along with being tied for the most touchdowns allowed at four.
D/ST – We’re at the point that I won’t touch a defense who’s up against LA. That’s a wildly talented unit and the Ravens just got pushed around by *checks notes* Carson Wentz.
Cash Plays – Jackson, Hollywood, Andrews
GPP Plays – Murray
Vikings at Panthers, O/U of 44.5 (Vikings -1.5)
Vikings
QB – I’ve happily played Kirk Cousins on a couple of slates this year, but this one doesn’t strike me as another week to test it. Cousins is a better player than he typically gets credit for but I’m also not going out of my way to play him in tougher matchups. Carolina checks that box sitting second in DVOA against the pass and they have allowed the fewest yards so far on the second-fewest attempts. They also have yielded just seven touchdown passes and can get pressure like few other teams thus far. Cousins deserves credit for ranking 10th in pressured completion rate at 49.3% but this defense is tough and we don’t need to force it, especially on the road.
RB – We will have to circle back when we know more but the broad strokes here are if Dalvin Cook plays and is ready to roll, you’re not getting him under $8,000 very often regardless of the matchup. Likewise, if Cook sits again, Alexander Mattison is still wildly cheap at $6,200. He’s put up 26 and 30 DK in games that Cook hasn’t been active for this year and has touched the ball a total of 64 times in those two games. It has to be noted that Mattison got those starts in a smash spot against the Lions and Seahawks. Maybe he doesn’t put up 26 or more against the Panthers, who have only allowed 433 scrimmage yards to backs. It would still be hard to overlook a player who has averaged 32 touches in Cook’s absences. Let’s see what the practice reports bring us.
Update – I’m very tempted to have some exposure to Cook this week. All the attention is on the mid-range and he’s sooooooo cheap. I get the matchup is terrible, but this is Dalvin with no injury designation under $8,000. Normally the field flocks to him and by all expectations, they are not in this spot.
WR – Adam Thielen has really kind of struggled after the explosion in Week 1 and we see what he looks like when he’s not scoring and it’s not always going to be pretty. He is down to 70th in yards per route and outside the top 30 in yardage so far. We can’t even blame unrealized air yards because he’s 40th in that metric. All this is coming with the fourth-most routes in the league and with the matchup, he’s not that interesting to me.
Justin Jefferson remains in the top 10 in routes, receptions, yards, and he’s 23rd in yards per route. He’s also in the top 12 in air yards share and targets overall and the individual matchup may not be that bad for him. He should get plenty of C.J. Henderson or Donte Jackson, who both have allowed at least a 1.88 FPPT. I’m not making him a priority since I don’t particularly trust Cousins in the matchup but he will surely not be popular.
TE – It always seems like you can maybe play Ty Conklin but the reality is in four games, he hasn’t crossed 8.1 DK points. Conklin is 10th in routes and 10th in receptions but is also just 18th in yards and 19th in RZ targets. The Panthers have only allowed 214 yards and two scores so the 13.6% target share is fine, but not exactly worth paying for in my eyes.
D/ST – I played them last week and I may go back to the well, although the matchup is tougher. The Vikings are third in sack percentage, second in pressure rate, and are only one sack away from the lead in the league. Carolina is tied for the fourth-most sacks given up so they can get home, but the return of a star player lowers their appeal.
Cash Plays – Cook
GPP Plays – Jefferson, Thielen, D/ST
Panthers
QB – Things totally bottomed out for Sam Darnold last week with just nine DK points but he’s played so well for the most part that I’m not shy to go back to him. It needs to be pointed out that he’s thrown five interceptions the past two weeks but he’s faced two top DVOA defenses against the pass without a main cog in the offense. While Minnesota ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass (very surprising), Darnold gets that main cog back this week and he’s still 10th in attempts overall and 16th in FPPD. Where Darnold has really shone early is pressured completion rate, which sees him sitting fifth at 56.6%. That’s a valuable skill to have against the Vikings pass rush and he could be a sub-3% play that scores over 20 DK points.
RB – Welcome back Christian McCaffrey. We’ve missed you. The Panthers cut Rodney Smith after Sunday’s game, which is very telling that CMC will be back this week. He seemingly was close last week so we can feel comfortable playing him in our lineups and he will be chalk this week. Not only is he below $9,000 on DK (insert your favorite GIF of someone laughing), but he is the only back on the slate hat is over $8,000. Just like we saw with Derrick Henry last week, the field will (rightfully) flock to CMC and I will be overweight in GPP as well. You simply don’t get a player of this caliber at this price tag and when you do, you hammer it. He already has over 300 scrimmage yards under his belt in two games and about a quarter worth of playing time this year. CMC is still fourth in the team in targets, which says all you need to know. Minnesota has allowed 790 scrimmage yards against backs so far this year and this is a fantastic spot with an egregious salary. Don’t galaxy brain this one.
Update – CMC is out and I am sad. Chubba Hubbard racked up 29 total touches last week and was utilized more in the passing game, which was very encouraging. He really shouldn’t be under $6,000 while CMC is inactive. Minnesota is 20th in DVOA against the pass
WR – I can’t do another week chasing my tail with Robby Anderson but this is a fantastic bounce-back spot for D.J. Moore. He finally had a down game but this week he draws a good bit of Patrick Peterson in coverage and he’s allowed a 1.79 FPPT and a 13.9 YPR. Moore is going to give him some issues in this one and he’s bringing an elite set of metrics to the party. He’s in the top 22 in air yards share, air yards, receptions, yards, routes, target share, and yards per route. You honestly can’t ask for much more at this salary and while I won’t have a need in cash with McLaurin, what a pivot Moore could turn out to be.
TE – With the expectation that CMC is back, it’s really difficult to feel comfortable with either Ian Thomas or Tommy Tremble getting a ton of targets again. Tremble has only played 38% of the snaps the past two weeks while Thomas is at 63% but they have combined for just 13 targets. Some of those are going to funnel toward CMC and I will pass here.
D/ST – All in all, the Panthers are one of the better options on the slate. They are second in sack percentage while leading the league in pressure rate and they sit third in sacks. Cousins has only been brought down nine times but his pressure rate is over 30%, third-highest among starting quarterbacks. Carolina is also second in total DVOA and sits under $3,000.
Cash Plays – D/ST
GPP Plays – Hubbard, Moore, Darnold
Cardinals at Browns, O/U of 49 (Browns -3)
Cardinals
QB – It’s been a slow three weeks for Kyler Murray and one stat that jumps out is through those three games, he has a combined 59 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown. That’s not super ideal when a quarterback is only 19th in attempts (though sixth in yards). Kyler is the best at completing the deep ball at a staggering 72.7% and he’s second in clean completion rate and catchable pass rate, so he’s about as accurate as you could ask for. The good news is he’s eighth in RZ passing attempts but the rushing numbers just haven’t been overwhelming so far. Just among quarterbacks, he’s seventh in RZ carries, ninth in rushing yards, and fourth in carries. hose are all fine, but not exactly what we were expecting. Cleveland is only 19th in DVOA against the pass and if they can get pressure on Murray, maybe it forces him to leave the pocket a little bit. I do prefer Mahomes and the players from the Ravens game at this point.
Update – This has turned into a miserable spot for Kyler and the Cardinals. They will be without multiple coaches including head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kyler’s shoulder is banged up a little, limiting his rushing upside. There is supposed to be wind up to 20 MPH. The whole Cardinals team is mostly a fade for me in this spot.
RB – It was not a banner day for the duo of Chase Edmonds and James Conner last week. Edmonds was fighting a hammy injury and generated just 34 yards on nine touches while Conner managed 37 yards on 11 touches. When you score a touchdown like Conner did and only manage 10.7 DK points, that’s nothing to get excited about. It has been hard to play either with much confidence and that remains the case this week. Unless one misses, they both have such defined roles that it caps each other. Conner is going to be the man in the RZ with 15 carries while Edmonds is the man in the passing game with a 16.6% target share. Given their prices and the value on the slate, it’s pretty easy to fly on by these players. If you want to attack the Browns defense, I’d rather go with Edmonds since the passing game is more stable than banking on a touchdown but I don’t see myself playing either.
WR – This may be my least favorite part of the article because I’m not sure how to project this receiving corps. We saw DeAndre Hopkins get back in the groove a little bit last week with a score and 6/87 but he only had nine targets. That’s the most Nuk has had all year with just a 21% target share. My view on him hasn’t changed very much as I think he’s more WR2 with upside but he’s still very much priced as a WR1. The rest of the corps in A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk all split 13 targets which are so thin that it’s difficult to get after.
The only thing to hold on to is Moore and Kirk split snaps about right down the middle this past week so perhaps it’s a sign that Moore will get involved to a higher degree. Moore has played most of his snaps in the slot (as has Kirk) and that would leave them on Troy Hill for the most part. That’s better than Nuk dealing with mostly Denzel Ward but none of these options are cash plays. I do like trying to get the big game from Moore but it could easily be Kirk as well and that has been the issue with the Cards all year.
TE – It appears that Maxx Williams suffered a serious knee injury and Demetrius Harris appears to be next in line, sort of. He only has three targets on the season but he played nearly 60% of the snaps last week. If we didn’t have a strong value already in RSJ for Washington, maybe I’d be a little more interested. The difference is we’re projecting Harris to take a role while we’ve seen RSJ do it and the price difference is only $500.
D/ST – Along with the Panthers, I dig the Cardinals here to some extent as well. Defenses are so tricky sometimes you just play a good one at a cheap price and hope for the best. Arizona is fourth in total DVOA, 11th in sack percentage has forced 10 takeaways, and is allowing under 18 points per game in real life. Cleveland exploded last week but they haven’t been the most prolific offense this season.
Cash Plays – Kyler, D/ST
GPP Plays – Edmonds, Moore, Kirk, Nuk, Green
Browns
QB – I for one will not be buying in o the odd Baker Mayfield game where he barely clipped 300 yards and threw for two scores. Even after that, he sits 26th in attempts, 24th in RZ attempts, 22nd in yards, 31st in deep ball completion rate, and 27th in pressured completion rate. With Arizona sitting third in DVOA against the pass and giving up the eighth-fewest passing yards, it’s very difficult to build a case for Mayfield.
RB – We got the Nick Chubb monster game and it happened pretty much like we said it had to happen. He didn’t score twice but 161 yards and a touchdown tend to play well for DFS. Nothing really happened this past week to make me re-think this Cleveland backfield. Chubb will always be a strong option as he’s one of the best pure running backs in football. His floor for DFS is super low with just about no passing work and now he’s over $7,000. You have to ask yourself how likely it is he scores 21-24 DK points with just rushing yards and touchdowns before plugging him in. Arizona is 13th in DVOA against the run and they have surrendered 493 yards on the ground. Kareem Hunt remains heavily involved in all aspects of the game and he’s leading the team in targets with a paltry 21. He was the better points per dollar play than Chubb (and has been repeatedly) since he has receiving upside and gets RZ and goal-line work. For me, I’ll continue to utilize the better points per dollar player although both are starting to get up there. There are not many teams that the RB6 in PPR settings is priced $1,000 less than the RB12, but that’s what we have in Cleveland.
Update – Chubb is out. Hunt is the RB6. Do NOT play cash games without Hunt this week.
WR – There has to be a game where it clicks for Odell Beckham at some point. Through his three games, he’s right around 75% of the snaps, leads the team in targets with 19, and has a 35% air yards share. He’s already 20th in unrealized air yards but only 11 of his 19 targets have been catchable at a 57.9% rate. OBJ is 22nd in deep targets and he is extremely cheap for the upside he possesses. He should face Robert Alford who has been targeted 15 times for a 73.3% completion rate and a 1.79 FPPT. With a passing attack that is so low volume and has tight ends and running backs involved heavily, I’m not looking for a different option in this corps.
TE – I would have never thought David Njoku would have gone for 30 DK last week, especially with the Chargers secondary on the other side. On the season, he and Austin Hooper have split targets almost right down the middle with Njoku holding a slim 17-16 lead. That’s kind of a problem because they both play over 62% of the snaps but they just crush each other most weeks. Njoku hasn’t cleared four DK points in three games. Hooper has yet to hit double digits so we have better options.
D/ST – The Cardinals haven’t been special lately on offense but I’m not playing the Browns after watching them get shredded by the Chargers.
Update – Given all the factors working against Arizona, I am fine with the D/ST in GPP.
Cash Plays – Hunt
GPP Plays – Chubb, OBJ, Njoku, D/ST
Raiders at Broncos, O/U of 44 (Broncos -3.5)
Raiders
QB – The Raiders are facing a difficult week that includes a coaching change but they specifically left both coordinators in place. The offense should continue to mostly revolve around Derek Carr who has been a strong option for fantasy most weeks. He’s third in attempts, fifth in RZ attempts, second in yards, and third in air yards. Utilizing Henry Ruggs in the passing game is starting to pay off for this offense as it now has a more diverse set of skills and it’s been a big help to Carr. The largest issues are the lack of touchdowns with just eight and sitting 25th in FPPD. Denver is 13th in DVOA against the pass but has also allowed the fifth-fewest yards and only five touchdown passes. I have no real reason to get after Carr this week.
RB – If Josh Jacobs continues to see five targets a game, that would be a monster boost for his fantasy appeal. I’m not sure I want to project that, but Kenyan Drake has simply not been involved to this point. As we said, I don’t expect a ton to change in this offense since the OC remains in place but the matchup is not ideal for Jacobs. Denver is 10th in DVOA against the run has only given up 344 rushing yards. We can feel great about the volume for Jacobs since he’s had 18 and 20 touches in the past two weeks all we like, but there is not much of a reason to go here with the other players we have in this salary range. Jacobs is a pretty easy back to kick out of the pool this week in my eyes.
WR – There are only two receivers that have a target share of over 11.9% since Week 1 and they are Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow. Ruggs is not likely to be a high-volume option at just a 16.1% share but he leads the team in air yard share at 30.1%. Ruggs is 11th across the NFL in total air yards and with his elite speed, it can break open a game at any moment. He also has the 14th most unrealized air yards but there is some major volatility. He’s scored under 13 DK points in four of five games and faces some of Kyle Fuller, who doesn’t have the speed to keep up with him.
The safer play is Renfrow who is mostly in the slot at 59.2% and he’s 15th in receptions. That’s a nice bump on DK and Bryce Callahan plays the slot. He’s only been targeted 12 times and has only allowed 57 yards but Renfrow is such a big part of this offense that I would still trust him in this spot.
TE – We talked about this last week but the trend continued for Darren Waller and that is he’s not been the target hog we saw in Week 1. In the past four games, he’s only seen 29 targets and that’s tied with Renfrow for the team lead. It’s also under 21% for the target share and he trails Renfrow in both receptions and yards over the past month. Overall, Waller is first in routes, third in yards and receptions, and first in unrealized air yards. I would have to think that Kelce is going to be very chalky so the argument is there to play Waller instead. I’m just not super thrilled to see where this offense has been for Waller in four of five games.
D/ST – Vegas is 18th in sack percentage and 13th in total DVOA, making them a not-super-appealing option. Denver has only turned it over four times and while Denver has allowed a pressure rate over 30%, it hasn’t killed the quarterback play to this point.
Cash Plays – Renfrow
GPP Plays – Ruggs, Waller
Broncos
QB – Teddy Bridgewater did very, very little for the most part last week but managed to turn it on a little bit late and score just under 20 DK points. While he is eighth in air yards per attempt and seventh in RZ completion rate, Teddy B sits 25th in attempts and just 23rd in deep ball completion rate. Combine that with being 18th in FPPD and we don’t have the most appealing option for fantasy. The loss of multiple receivers has not helped but Vegas has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards on the 12th most attempts and only six touchdowns. Ranking 14th in DVOA against the pass is respectable so I will not have much reason to go here.
RB – We’re pretty much just treading water in the Broncos backfield. I would love to see Javonte Williams get the lead here but it’s not happening. He and Melvin Gordon split the carries almost dead down the middle this past week as always, with Williams generating 61 rushing yards to 34 for Gordon. What I think happens in this game is the same script we saw for the Bears last week. Both Damien Willams and Khalil Herbert produced, but if you don’t get the touchdown you’re not going to be all that happy. We’ve said for three weeks that we want to get ahead of the Williams breakout game and that theory applies, but this feels like the wrong slate to take that chance with the other backs around him.
WR – Denver is down to only two receivers that matter for fantasy in Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Sutton is getting up there in salary and I can’t say he’s my favorite target on the slate. Still, since Jerry Jeudy was injured Sutton leads the team in targets with a 27.7% rate and a 47.3% air yards share. He’s also leading in the EZ targets so the value of his role would be the highest to chase. He could avoid Casey Hayward, whose alignments so far would face more of Patrick. He’s been pretty consistent outside the Baltimore game when Drew Lock played with at least 12 DK in four of five games. The target share isn’t bad either at 18.5% but neither are the strongest plays this week.
TE – I think Noah Fant might be the most boring player at the position to discuss. He’s sixth in routes run and eighth in receptions, both of which are interesting. he’s also 17th in yards and 31st in yards per route. His aDOT is only 6.0 yards and that is the lowest among the options in the Denver passing game. I’ll give him credit for being fourth in RZ targets but overall, there’s not a lot to write home about here. Fant is a great athlete but they aren’t exactly using him as such in this offense.
D/ST – The Broncos are a strong play in real life as they are only allowing 15.2 points per game, are 10th in total DVOA, and have 12 sacks to go along with the eighth-highest sack percentage in football. Still, I can’t justify this salary as we’re pushing $4,000. Derek Carr is third in sacks taken at 15 but it’s a lot to ask for a return at the price point.
Cash Plays – None
GPP Plays – Sutton, Williams, Fant, Patrick
Cowboys at Patriots, O/U of 51 (Cowboys -3.5)
Cowboys
QB – I will admit that I struggle with Dak Prescott a little bit. He’s wildly efficient right now and playing the best football of his career. He’s only 19th in attempts but he’s top 10 in RZ attempts, yards per attempt, accuracy rating, deep ball completion rate, and catchable pass rate. The touchdown rate of 7.9% is wildly above his career number of 4.8% so that is a small red flag and if he’s not throwing 3-4 scores, throwing it 32 times or fewer will make it a bit difficult to sustain fantasy worth at the salary. With the Cowboys a road favorite, I don’t think it’s wise to slot in Dak for more than 35 attempts at the most and I much prefer Lamar or Herbert in this range. Dallas has shown us how they handle positive game scripts.
RB – Reading that game script has been important for the Cowboys this season. As we talked about, the passing attack has not been seeing heavy volume for the past month and if you think that script plays out again, Ezekiel Elliott is still cheap. He went for 28 DK last week and his price rose by $100. OK? Thanks for that love DK because there is just no way that should be a thing. Zeke is third in carries across the past four weeks with five rushing touchdowns and 419 rushing yards. He’s not garnering a ton of targets with 14 but it’s just enough to have a little bit of a safety net. Despite New England adding a lot to their front seven in free agency, they sit just 22nd in DVOA against the run and have allowed 490 yards on the ground. The scary part about that is the Pats have faced four of the bottom seven teams in rushing yards per game. This is easily the most accomplished rushing team they have faced and Zeke is a road favorite. He could be very overlooked and if that’s the case, makes for an elite GPP play. Tony Pollard continues to be involved, but it is clear who the alpha in the offense is and that is an underpriced Zeke.
WR – We’re going to tie this together in the tight end section, but in the past four weeks when the Cowboys have mostly been in winning scripts, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have been under a 22% target share and the highest score between the two of them has been 18.8 DK from Lamb last week. If we’re thinking the Cowboys are in another positive game script, Lamb and Cooper would be hard-pressed to get to a 3x return here. Cooper has a bit of a tougher matchup on paper against J.C. Jackson who is sporting a 1.40 FPPT on 28 targets so far. Lamb should face Jalen Mills who would be the easier path but neither salary is the most appealing thing ever. I’d rather play the running game and it’s startling to see the next stat.
TE – Here’s something fascinating – Dalton Schultz leads the Cowboys in targets over the past three weeks and it’s not exactly close. He has 23 targets in that time and Cooper and Lamb have combined for 27. I don’t really expect that trend to continue but the connection between him and Dak has been real. Schultz also leads in RZ targets and has 18 receptions with three touchdowns in the past three games. New England looks great against tight ends but they have played nobodies at the position so far. Schultz is only 20th in routes but he’s second in target rate, fourth in receptions, and fifth in yards. He’s still under $5,000 and all the metrics at hand tell us he shouldn’t be.
D/ST – If the other sub-$3,000 options aren’t your speed, Dallas is where you should head. They are on the road but they are also sixth in total DVOA and sit second in the league in turnovers forced with 12. While they do sit 30th in sack percentage, it says a lot that they’re forcing turnovers with no sacks. Dan Quinn has made a big difference for this group and the Patriots are tied for the second-most turnovers. Dallas should be able to force a rookie quarterback into a couple of mistakes here.
Cash Plays – Zeke, Schultz, D/ST
GPP Plays – Dak, Lamb, Cooper, Pollard
Patriots
QB – Dallas is seventh in DVOA against the pass and they have 10 interceptions already, but I think Mac Jones could have some moderate value. I use the word moderate with purpose because the highest DK score he’s had so far has been just 17 DK but at $5,100, he does save plenty of salary. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards in football in part because they’ve faced the second-most attempts and they’ve given up 10 touchdowns. The rookie is ninth in attempts but only 20th in yards and 30th in FPPD. You’re banking on the script, matchup, and likely some garbage time to get you there but it is possible with such a low price.
RB – Last week screamed it was a Damien Harris spot until late in the week and he was without four offensive linemen. This week I would lean much more towards playing Brandon Bolden if anyone out of this backfield. The expectation is for the Patriots to trail and if they do, Bolden would be the most valuable Patriots player in the backfield. Since James White has gone down, Bolden has 14 targets, good for an 11.6% target share. White was at an 11.9% share and he would have been an interesting value in his spot. Bolden may not be as skilled as White, but the role is certainly his. It’s not a time to play a two-down hammer back and that is exactly what Harris is. Bolden could be a strong punt if you decide to spend elsewhere, although it’s much easier to just play Darrel Williams.
WR – It’s very interesting to see that if alignments hold, Jakobi Meyers would not see a lot of Trevon Diggs and that would be a huge boost for Meyers. He is the only Patriots player with a target share over 14% (and the only one I’d be interested in past a tight end) and his air yards share is 29.9%. The lack of touchdowns is simply baffling for his role in the offense and that has to change at some point. Meyers is fourth in routes, 10th in targets, and seventh in receptions. Considering the Cowboys have allowed the third-most yards and are tied for the seventh-most receptions, this is a fantastic spot for Meyers. He could face Jourdan Lewis who has allowed a 1.83 FPPT. There is another clear run-back option after Meyers if you’d like for a mini-stack.
TE – We’ve come to another strong value as we should project the Patriots to trail and have to throw a lot in this game. Hunter Henry is coming on strong with 19 targets over the past three weeks and he leads Jonnu Smith in snaps and targets in that span. It really seems like he’s gotten up to speed in the offense after an injury in the preseason and only Meyers has more targets in the past three weeks. He also leads in touchdowns with two and Henry is now in the top 12 in routes, receptions, and yards. He would make a lot of sense as a run-back for a Cowboys player.
D/ST – I will have no Patriots defense here even though they are at home. Dallas only has five turnovers on the year and Dak only has a 13.3% pressure rate with eight sacks taken.
Cash Plays – Meyers, Henry
GPP Plays – Bolden
Cash Core 4
Kareem Hunt, Khalil Herbert, Travis Kelce, Jakobi Meyers
Lamar Jackson is the highest quarterback in popularity but I’m personally going with Heinicke in cash. Before his dud last week against the Saints, he rattled off three straight QB1 performances.
GPP Core 4
Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, At Least Two Players from KC/Wash
I’m mixing in anyone from the Chiefs game into every single lineup with two players at a minimum. In one lineup, I do plan to go cheaper at running back over Mixon and Hubbard to play Kelce and Hill together.
Stacks
Chiefs/Washington – All of it. Literally, all of it.
Chargers/Ravens – Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams, Cook – Run-Back – Hollywood, Andrews, Murray, Jackson
Bengals/Lions – Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins – Run Backs – Swift, Hockenson, St. Brown
The next set of games is more of a mini-stack focus for me as opposed to anything over three players.
Texans/Colts – Cooks – Run Backs – Taylor, Pittman
Packers/Bears – Adams, Jones Run-Backs – Robinson, Herbert, Mooney
Cowboys/Patriots – Zeke, Lamb, Schultz, Cooper Run-Backs – Meyers, Henry
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
