NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

We are back in action for Week 4 and hopefully, you were able to survive in cash despite the Justin Fields grenade. It wasn’t easy but it was possible and part of that was the ability to late swap to Alexander Mattison. Always remember to leave your later player in the flex spot to give yourself the best chance! Let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and figure out what paths to take for the green screens this week! 

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

Texans at Bills, O/U of 47 (Bills -16)

Texans 

QB – I didn’t think Davis Mills played that terrible on Thursday night but that only resulted in 10.7 DK points and this spot is no fun. Buffalo is second in DVOA in total and against the pass so even with a significantly negative game script, I just can’t see going here on a full slate. Mills has one talented receiver and that’s about it. I get that $4,900 is tempting but there’s very little trust there 

RB – We say all the time to not play Houston running backs and that remains the case. Buffalo has been a very difficult defense to play against and we’re still seeing a split backfield. Mark Ingram leads with 46 carries but don’t forget, he had 28 in Week 1. Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson have combined for 31 carries while no back has a target share over 6.9%. On a full slate, playing a back with no passing game upside as 17 point underdogs doesn’t seem to be the best path to take. 

WR – I’m not willing to go back to the Anthony Miller since it’s not a showdown slate so the only player worth considering is Brandin Cooks. The man is just unstoppable no matter who the quarterback is this season or any other season. He has the number one air yards share in the NFL at 57.8%, he’s third in receptions, third in yards, and second in yard per route. He’s been one of the most underrated receivers for years and is well worth the price. I will say that he will likely see plenty of Tre White who has only allowed a 1.3 FPP and a passer rating of just 77.8. I don’t exactly worry about it because the Texans don’t have many other reliable options. Cooks will see his targets no matter what. 

Update – I would still only play Cooks but the Buffalo secondary isn’t super healthy. Safety Jordan Poyer is out and corner Taron Johnson is questionable but was a DNP Thursday and Friday. Life could be worse for Cooks and his massive target share.

TE – With both Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown playing over 60% of the snaps and splitting 15 targets so far, we can’t use either. They are very cheap but we do have a punt special later on that I would “trust” more and I’m not going with a rookie quarterback in Buffalo and splitting work. 

D/ST – I will not be playing a defense that is basically a 17 point underdog. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Cooks 

Bills 

QB – Our man Jared has been on this as well, but we knew the big game was coming and he blew up this past week. Allen is fourth in attempts, fifth in air yards, third in RZ attempts, and third in deep attempts all while sitting first in RZ rush attempts as well. He’s kicked in 88 rushing yards and Houston being a surprising seventh in DVOA against the pass makes no never mind to me. They have allowed the 10th most passing yards with a 4:4 TD:INT ratio but Allen with a full complement of weapons is too much to ignore. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him very low in popularity since he sits right between Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, who is in the game of the week most likely. 

RB – Zack Moss will get the attention from the Buffalo backfield but I remain a little bit skeptical. I grant you that Moss played a lot more snaps this week but the carries were still close with Moss holding a 13-11 edge there and a 3-2 edge in targets. However, just last week he didn’t see a 30% snap share and was inactive Week 1. Now, perhaps Moss got the message and has just simply raised his level of play and will continue to get over 15 touches in a high-powered offense. If that’s the case, he’s too cheap. However, Devin Singletary still had a lot of touches as well and if Moss doesn’t get a touchdown, you’re talking about 10 DK. A split backfield is going to be volatile to predict week to week and this game projects to get out of hand fast. 

WR – Stefon Diggs hasn’t had one of those games so far, but all the metrics point to it happening soon. Houston got smoked by D.J. Moore last week and this could be the week for Diggs. He’s first in air yards, eighth in air yards share, third in deep targets, and second in unrealized air yards at 271. In fairness to Diggs, only 68.8% of his targets have been catchable and if you play a lot in GPP, you have to keep going to the well. 

Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley could be a little popular, but just remember their production is coming while Diggs is not having great games yet. I certainly prefer Sanders since he’s still just $4,900 and has the more explosive role in the offense. He’s 15th in routes run and eighth in air yards, which makes his production volatile but the price is certainly right. Beasley is far more the cash-style play, living in the slot and having a 5.6 aDOT. He’s the safety valve in the offense along with the tight ends and backs and with the Bills being a top-five passing offense in volume, the work is certainly there week-to-week. Houston could also be without corner Terrance Mitchell and safety Justin Reid, which would just raise the ceiling of everyone involved. 

TE – Could we be seeing a mini breakout for Dawson Knox? It’s not impossible and he’s actually exceeded eight DK points in each contest so far. Carving out a 9.9% target share in this offense isn’t all that bad and it’s not like he’s seeing any type of special coverage with the other weapons around him. Knox is 11th in routes run and has 10 receptions already. I’m not trying to confuse him with reliable, but he’s also the TE8 right now and he’s barely over $3,500. Houston has also allowed the third-most receptions to the position thus far despite not playing one of the elite options in the league. 

D/ST – If I wanted to afford them, it would be great. Buffalo has generated six takeaways, nine sacks, and the second-most pressures in football. Compound that with seeing Houston give up over a 25% pressure rate and it’s a dynamite spot. The price tag will keep me out of the running for Buffalo’s defense on this slate as a rarely pay-up, even more so for the top salary. 

Cash Plays – Allen, Beasley, Knox

GPP Plays – Diggs, Sanders, Moss, D/ST 

Lions at Bears, O/U of 42 (Bears -3)

Lions

QB – Jared Goff came back down to Earth a little last week and that’s not the largest surprise ever. It says quite a bit that he’s sixth in attempts but 13th in yards and 26th in air yards. That’s not exactly what we’re looking for and he’s 25th in FPDB. Now we add the fact that Chicago is ninth in DVOA against the pass and is 13th in passing yards allowed. Past the matchup with the Rams, the Bears have only allowed two other passing touchdowns. It’s one thing to be interested in a couple of the skill players on the offense, but Goff is more than likely to end up around 16 DK points than anything else. 

RB – We’re three weeks into the season and I’m here to publicly apologize to D’Andre Swift. Before the season started, I wanted nothing to do with him and thought he’d be a huge bust at his ADP. I couldn’t have been more off base. Even though three weeks, I’ve played him one time I believe. That streak ends this week. The snaps and carries might be closer than we want with Jamaal Williams at 33-28 and Williams still sees the field at a 40% clip but Swift has eight RZ rushes and is second among running backs with 24 total targets. Only Najee Harris from Pittsburgh is higher and that’s only because he recorded 19 last week. Swift recorded 21 touches last week and turned them into 23.7 DK points. Snap rate doesn’t matter if you’re getting that many touches and lead your team in target share at 21%. The Bears have uncharacteristically allowed over 300 rushing yards to backs already and Swift is underpriced on DK where the scoring is full PPR. 

WR – The only two that we can look at here are Quintez Cephus and Kalif Raymond and I’m not sure that says a whole lot. Both players are under a 14% target share on the season and have three RZ targets combined. There’s a reason Swift has so many targets (outside of his talent) and neither player is over 136 receiving yards. I don’t believe Chicago feels the need to shadow with Jaylon Johnson but Cephus has only been in the slot about 7% of the time so he likely draws the brunt of Johnson. He’s only allowed six receptions on 16 targets and a 0.87 FPPT through three games and I’m not messing with that. Raymond has been in the slot about 25% of the time and would draw the much softer coverage. He’s cheap enough to consider for GPP but nothing more. 

TE – I did not expect that style of game from T.J. Hockenson as he was only targeted two times and managed 10 yards. He is still second in routes among tight ends, fifth in snaps, sixth in air yards and sixth in target share at 17.8%. Additionally, even after a dud, he’s third in receptions and sixth yards at the position. All of this is to say that bad games are going to happen but you shouldn’t view Hock any differently. The Bears have yet to allow 100 total yards to the position and it’s not the greatest matchup. I’ll likely go elsewhere but it has little to do with last week. 

D/ST – I honestly don’t hate this punt. Look, Detroit is not a good defense by about any measure. They have the sixth-fewest pressures but they do have eight sacks and we’ve outlined plenty of times the issues along the offensive line for Chicago and the offense in general. Last week saw Fields under pressure over 50% of the time. The three turnovers are nothing special but at such a low salary, we could do worse and just hope they get us 5-6 points. 

Cash Plays – Swift, Hockenson, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Raymond, Goff 

Bears 

QB – Just run away. Coach Matt Nagy has said that all three players are under consideration to start and I will have nothing to do with this circus act. I’m not here to tell you Justin Fields played well last week, but I’m not sure what you expect when your quarterback is getting pressured 55% of the time and no adjustments are made through the game. Detroit is not a good defense, but Nagy is not a good coach. If Andy Dalton plays, I could potentially get on board but it’s not a fun idea. 

Update – The starter will be a game time decision and I stand firm in the fact I don’t want to go here, but if Dalton starts I would be more inclined to play Monty or A-Rob in GPP. The industry (understandably) wants nothing to do with this offense so a player like Monty could wind up being a super strong GPP play.

RB – The theme with Chicago is going to continue because I just can’t possibly trust Matt Nagy’s “offense”. When it gets ripped to shreds by an ex-player (Dan Orlovsky) who was on an 0-16 NFL team as the worst game plan he’s ever seen, I’m paying attention. David Montgomery is the workhorse in this offense but after a strong start to the campaign, he’s not been over 11 DK points in part due to the dysfunction of the Bears all around. In theory, a player like Fields should have helped open up running lanes for Monty and made life easier. In reality, Nagy had the offense run five-man protections on the majority of their dropbacks and Cleveland feasted. This would check the box as a get-right spot because the Lions’ defense is not good but even a $5,800, Montgomery is only GPP for me and I would find the extra $400 for Swift on the other side of the game. 

WR – You know another way I can tell that a coach isn’t doing his job? Allen Robinson has 10 receptions for 86 yards TOTAL through three games. That is beyond egregious. He’s almost never below $6,000 and it’s hard to pass that price but my goodness is the trust level low. A-Rob is 63rd in air yards, 80th in yards per route, and 95th in yards per target. The plus side is he does still have a 25.3% target share and he has four RZ targets as well. With Detroit missing their top two corners right now, this should be a cakewalk matchup for Robinson. I can’t mess with Darnell Mooney with the offense in tatters, as it can’t even support Robinson at this juncture. 

TE – I remain steadfast that I’m not playing Bears right now, including Cole Kmet unless Andy Dalton is back. Dalton targets him seven times in Week 1 but overall, Kmet is 22nd in routes, 33rd in yards, and 12th in target share. There’s not a lot of meat on the bone, even in a great matchup. Detroit has allowed the third-most yards against the position so maybe you could twist my arm with Dalton. 

D/ST – Slightly expensive but they do at least have nine sacks and four turnovers on the season, and Detroit is allowing a 21.6% pressure rate on Goff. We know he can make mistakes in a hurry if the opposition gets home, so the potential for a defensive score is there. 

Cash Plays – D/ST

GPP Plays – Monty, A-Rob

Titans at Jets, O/U of 44 (Titans -7)

Titans 

QB – I’m not likely to go with the passing game on this team but Ryan Tannehill is far from a bad play. It has been a disappointing start for him to a large extent, sitting 20th in pass yards, 14th in air yards, and 23rd in FPDB. However, he is seventh in RZ attempts to this point of the year and still threw three touchdowns last week even though he lost one of his receivers very early. We’ve talked about the Jets being better than we thought as they only rank 18thin DVOA against the pass. They have also only allowed 700 passing yards so the metrics don’t say it’s a crazy good spot for Tannehill, but he’s still solid. 

RB – So this is just a total smash spot for Derrick Henry, who has more receptions than Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott coming into the week. That is NOT a sentence I figured on typing in Week 4 but that’s the reality. There’s now a bit more of a floor to Henry with a new offensive coordinator and the Titans could be without receiver A.J. Brown this week as well. The Jets are averaging almost 100 yards per game allowed on the ground so far and have allowed four rushing scores. I will say that’s not as bad as the Jets were pegged coming into the season and the 13th ranked DVOA against the run is stronger than we thought as well. Henry is still virtually assured 25-28 touches with a ceiling for more and there is even more safety than ever before with a small receiving floor. If the Tennessee defense forces a turnover or two, we could see Henry hit the paint three times this week. 

WR – We need to circle back at the end of the week. A.J. Brown is almost certain to miss this week but Julio Jones is in some danger of missing as well as he nurses a leg injury. If they are both out, we can turn to Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as potential salary savers. We do need to know the status of Brown and Julio and realistically, that just means Henry is getting 40 touches. 

Update – Goodness, the receiver room is hurt. Brown and Julio are both out, so now we can look at the pivots. For me, last week is what I want to take a look at. Brown was down early at 11% of the snaps and Julio only played 50% so I think that’s probably the best sample to all about. Westbrook-Ikhine led in snaps at 77.9% and had four targets while Chester Rogers played 41% and had two targets. The former also led in RZ targets at 2-1 and went 4/53/1 so I think he is the man we want in this situation. He would likely see some of Bryce Hall who has allowed a 1.63 FPPT through six targets. As much as Henry will carry this offense, they have to pass the ball a little bit and the savings make him less of a risk with plenty of upside. The Jets are also without safety Marcus Maye so their defense will suffer there as well.

TE – There is no right end worth fantasy consideration since even with Brown out most of last week, nobody stepped up in the passing game.

D/ST – To paraphrase what I told Brian and Ghost in our chat, I wouldn’t pay $3,900 for the Titans if they played Western San Jose State School of Agriculture and Technology. I’m aware of the Jets’ offensive issues and the fact they’ve allowed the most sacks on the year but the salary is a non-starter for me. If they were $2,900, they’d be my favorite defense. 

Update – Bud Dupree is out and that’s a big component to the pass rush, so it should in theory help the Jets.

Cash Plays – Henry, Westbrook-Ikhine

GPP Plays – Rogers

Jets 

QB – It’s only Week 4 but Zach Wilson is ranked 35th in FPDB. There are only 32 franchises in the NFL. He’s only thrown a catchable pass 45.7% of the time and is sitting 31st in true completion rate and is only 15th in attempts. The volume can’t make up for the horrid inefficiency so even though Tennessee is only 22nd in DVOA against the pass, I’m not ready to take the chance here. He could straight up kill your entire lineup. 

RB – If there was a time to try and play a Jets running back, it could be against the Titans and their 29th ranked DVOA against the run. I’m not saying I want to, but Michael Carter appears to be taking over with back-to-back weeks of double-digit touches. Carter had 11 and nine carries in the past two weeks, easily the most of any Jets back. There hasn’t been much production to speak of but the Patriots and Broncos defense are both worlds better than the Titans unit. Even against New England, Carter was able to generate 5.4 yards per carry so while it’s a thin play, I could see it. You’re just banking on Tennessee being that bad on the defensive side of the ball. There’s not a ton of cheap backs that I love so Carter would certainly make the GPP pool in lineups that I’m spending on the studs.

WR – Somebody say something about a Corey Davis revenge game? Kidding aside, Davis leads the Jets with 22 targets and has two EZ targets in the early season. The road has been tough the past two weeks but in honesty, the defenses faced have to be noted here. The Jets have faced three of the top eight defenses in total DVOAs so far and Davis paid off in Week 1 with two touchdowns. Now they finally get some relief as the Titans have allowed the third-most yards to receivers and six touchdowns, tied for the second-most. Janoris Jenkins and Kristian Fulton have both allowed at least a 1.42 FPPT and Jenkins especially has been terrible with an 80% catch rate and 117 passer rating allowed. If Jamison Crowder makes it back, you could potentially go that route since he should roll into the slot and make life easier on Wilson. There is a reason Braxton Berrios is right behind Davis in targets and has a 72.4% slot rate. We’ll see who’s healthy come Friday with Crowder and Elijah Moore both questionable. 

Update – Moore is out and Crowder looks like he’ll make his season debut, which makes him a fine GPP target but I’d be a little loathe to play him in cash.

TE – The only chance I will even consider this is if Tyler Kroft misses the game. Perhaps in that scenario, Ryan Griffin enters the fray, but if they are both active they just bit into the meager production they do have. 

D/ST – Derrick Henry might run for 400 yards, but if Brown and Julio are both out, you can make the case to punt. The Jets are 16th in DVOA overall and have six sacks. They do only have two turnovers but the price is still appealing. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Davis, Carter, Crowder

Chiefs at Eagles, O/U of 54 (Chiefs -7)

Chiefs 

QB – Philly is actually 13th in DVOA against the pass, which is strong for them in recent years but I’m not sweating that in the least with Patrick Mahomes. He has the second-most passing touchdowns, sits third in deep attempts, sixth in yards, and that’s all on just the 11th most attempts so far. When the only bad thing I can say about him is he’s thrown an interception per game, we’re pretty set. I believe he and one of his receiving options is one of the better stacking options on the entire slate, but we’ll get there. 

RB – Well, it looks like we’re back for another ride on the Clyde Edwards-Helaire Experience. After being very popular last week at $4,800 and scoring 20 DK, I would imagine the field will go right back to the well since he’s only $5,400 this week. Over the past couple of seasons, Philly has normally been a defense we avoided with running backs but not this year. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs and sit 22nd in DVOA. I sure wish CEH was getting more targets (only five on the entire season) but he still touched the ball 19 times last week. At that salary, it’s hard to turn away and he was actually chunking yards for the first time all year at a 5.9 YPC. This game is tied for the highest O/U and the Chiefs are seven-point favorites, even on the road. If nothing else, he’s likely a sample for cash games. 

WR – I’m sure Philly will try to stick Darius Slay on Tyreek Hill as much as they can since Slay can run with a 4.3 40-yard dash and he’s only allowed a 53.8% catch rate. However, he doesn’t travel into the slot and Hill has been in the slot at a 36.9% rate. Despite his past two sub-par starts, everything still looks good for him. He’s still third in air yards, he’s third in deep targets, the target share is over 25%, and the yards run per route is 16th. There is really nothing to fear with Hill, although I do prefer his running mate in this spot. 

Mecole Hardman doesn’t look nearly as pretty with just a 14.7% target share and only two deep targets, not to mention sitting 69th in air yards. If he’s not getting consistent deep balls, it’s going to be hard to get behind him as a play. The only reason we could be looking that route is if Slay is drawing Tyreek, Hardman would likely see Steven Nelson who has gotten scorched so far with a 2.27 FPPT, 135.1 passer rating, and a catch rate of almost 77%. 

TE – This is far from a hot take, but the Mahomes/Travis Kelce stack is among my favorite on the slate on the elite end of things. The Eagles linebackers are going to get positively shredded and they’ve already given up 20 receptions and two touchdowns along with 170 yards. Kelce just keeps on ticking with the fourth-most routes, the third-most air yards, second-highest target share, and he sits first in yards and receptions. His 24 DK points per game are more than every running back but Henry and tops all receivers except for Cooper Kupp on this particular slate. When we say he’s worth playing two tight ends, that’s what we’re talking about. 

D/ST – KC is dead last in DVOA, has just four sacks, and four turnovers forced. Even with a defensive touchdown, they only average four DK points per game. That’s a pass from me. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, CEH, Kelce

GPP Plays – Reek, Hardman

Eagles 

QB – As bad as Jalen Hurts looked through portions of the game Monday night, he still scored 25 DK points and did it despite rushing for only 35 yards. Philly is a seven-point dog at home so we have a very negative script projected from Vegas and the Chiefs defense has been one of the worst through the early going. They are dead last in DVOA against the pass and have allowed 841 passing yards and seven total touchdowns. The rushing yardage against them is inflated because of Lamar Jackson, but Hurts is certainly capable of hurting them like that as well. Hurts is under $7,000 and well in play with the dual-threat capability. He is still seventh in FPDB and hasn’t even played well yet as he sits 23rd in true completion rate. 

RB – We always look for contrarian plays every week and Miles Sanders could be one of those guys this week. He legitimately disappeared on Monday Night Football since the Eagles ran one of the worst offensive game plans of the week and had two carries. TWO. He did tack on three receptions and generate over 50 yards on just five touches, which begs the question of why didn’t he get the ball more. One of the best ways to stop this KC offense is to not let it on the field. I believe the Eagles make a concentrated effort to feed Sanders the ball as the Chiefs are dead last in DVOA against the run and have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards already. On top of that, they’ve surrendered 125 yards through the air and five total touchdowns. This is the perfect spot for a boom game from Sanders. Kenneth Gainwell is more of an MME play because he should get 7-10 touches with a 12% target share and if he poaches a touchdown, you’re in business. 

WR – It was not a good night for the receivers in this offense, especially for Devonta Smith. He got handled by the Cowboys defense and even though he and Jalen Reagor are the only players with more than 11 targets on the season. Smith plays almost all of his snaps on the outside with just a 16% slot rate and he only has 11 receptions through three games. The target share isn’t in the top 30 among receivers and the same goes for Reagor. The only reason to play them is as a run-back option bit the matchups don’t scare me exactly. Both Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed both are over a 1.98 FPPT in their limited targets. The main takeaway is no corner should be feared, but the Eagles passing game just has not been great. 

TE – If I’m going to play one, it may as well be Zach Ertz at this point. The price difference is $1,300 but Ertz has the same amount of targets as Dallas Goedert on fewer snaps and Goedert only has one more RZ target. Goedert does have more receiving yardage but I’m not convinced it’s worth the pricing difference. Kansas City has shown vulnerability just about everywhere on defense, so I’m totally fine with either play but not going out of my way. Only five teams have given up more yards to the position so far. 

D/ST – The Chiefs do have six turnovers already but Mahomes has only been sacked four times. Even at $2,100, I’d play the Lions ahead of the Eagles because Kansas City is obviously far more of a threat to hang 35+ real points. 

Cash Plays – Hurts

GPP Plays – Sanders, Reagor, Smith, Ertz

Panthers at Cowboys, O/U of 50.5 (Cowboys -4)

Panthers 

QB – It’s amazing what can happen when you’re surrounded by competent people. Sam Darnold is fifth in true completion rate, ninth in passing yards, 10th in air yards, and 14th in FPDB. He’s probably not expensive enough quite yet and honestly, the matchup is tough to figure out. Dallas is 14th in DVOA and has been playing much better under coordinator Dan Quinn but at the same time, they are only four yards away from leading the league in passing yards allowed and have allowed the third-most touchdown passes. I’m not sold in cash with some injuries on this side of the ball, but he’s well in play for GPP as a cheap guy to add in more studs. 

Update – As the week has gone on, I’m cool with Darnold in cash and may even wind up playing hims myself.

RB – With CMC out for at least another week or two, all eyes will turn to Chubba Hubbard who turned 14 touches into 79 scrimmage yards. He also dropped a touchdown pass that didn’t matter for the game, but surely will not be looked kindly upon by the coaching staff. Hubbard was more than fine and he’ll likely be a chalk paring with CEH to spend up elsewhere. I do wonder if Royce Freeman gets more involved since the Panthers have a long week to game plan. Freeman had five carries on just a 15% snap rate and this is a spot where we should be monitoring practice and coach speak closely. We also need to recognize that Dallas is 12th in DVOA against the run. It’s a bit hard to gauge because they have only faced 30 rushing attempts on the season, the lowest in the NFL. 

WR – D.J. Moore has scored just one touchdown but he’s the WR10 so far. The breakout is real and he’s 10th in air yards, fifth in receptions, seventh in yards, and 18th in yards per route. His target share is the seventh-highest at 30.7% and he could see even more work without CMC. Trevon Diggs will have a serious test here and he’s been targeted 15 times but has only allowed a 1.49 FPPT. Diggs has played very well so far but the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most yards to the position. 

This is also a spot for Robby Anderson to pop off and I really like him as a GPP play. Let’s look at the factors. Nobody will want to play him with a very slow start to the season. That’s fair but the Panthers are without CMC and traded their starting tight end. Coach Matt Ruhle said they have to do a better job getting him involved. He has 121 unrealized air yards and if Diggs is busy, Anthony Brown should draw most of the coverage. That’s an exploitable spot as Brown has allowed a 15.3 YPR, a 2.27 FPPT, and a 132 passer rating. As of Friday, Moore is one of the most popular receivers on the slate and could provide incredible leverage on just one or two plays. Don’t confuse him with a cash game option, but this is the spot where it’s a perfect storm of factors that point towards a big game. 

TE – There is a reason that Carolina felt comfortable trading away Dan Arnold to the Jaguars this week. The first is simply gambling on the talent of C.J. Henderson from the Jags as he’s a top 10 draft pick at a difficult position to fill. Henderson and Jaycee Horn could potentially turn into a lockdown duo when Horn gets back if Henderson gets right. Anyways, let’s turn the page on the strong roster-building from Carolina and talk about Tommy Tremble. If he takes over the Arnold role of 10.9% target share and roughly 35% of the snaps, he’s a fascinating punt with no CMC in this offense. There’s plenty of chance that Tremble doesn’t do much or is a literal zero but he should take over the receiving tight end role and he had a rushing touchdown last week, which is an interesting wrinkle. The Panthers took him in the third round so they clearly like him and he’s a big target for Darnold to utilize. 

D/ST – The Panthers defense has been incredible but they suffered a couple of key injuries last week, could be breaking in a new corner, and face a dangerous Dallas offense. The price isn’t low enough to justify the risk. 

Cash Plays – Hubbard, Darnold, Moore 

GPP Plays – Anderson, Tremble 

Cowboys 

QB – Dak Prescott didn’t have to turn it loose very often Monday night with only 26 pass attempts, and that’s been about the only thing to complain about so far. After 58 attempts in Week 1, Dak has followed that up with 27 and 26 attempts the past two weeks. Dak is 10th in yards, and 11th in attempts, plus he’s fourth in RZ attempts so far through three weeks. The FPDB is only 22nd and that’s been a slight concern since the volume hasn’t matched anything else for the most part. The good news is he’s first in true completion rate and first in catchable pass rate as well. If he gets the correct game script, there is no reason to worry and we only have a four-point spread here. 

RB – Ezekiel Elliott may have been gifted a touchdown on Monday when CeeDee Lamb fell just short of the end zone, but Zeke was the workhorse and we may need to start treating him as such again. He’s ramped up his carries every week and three receptions is a season-high even when the Cowboys were up big fairly early. Tony Pollard still got 11 carries but Zeke had all five RZ attempts and that’s what we’re looking for. Now, the matchup is tough because Carolina has been the top-ranked DVOA defense through three weeks. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed at just 94 through three weeks and even with a weaker schedule, that is impressive. Having said that, Zeke is back to 18-20 touches, commanding the RZ work, and is $6,500. 

WR – Game script duly noted, it was a very disappointing night for CeeDee Lamb as he just missed a 45-yard touchdown and then did virtually nothing else. it was a bit shocking to see him only targeted three times and I think something that has been notable from the Cowboys offense so far is the flexibility they have shown. If they can run the ball effectively, they don’t hesitate. If they know that they can’t run the ball, Dak will throw it 55+ times and you know what? That is the exact way offenses should work but it can be a little tough for fantasy players. We have to be careful of that although Carolina has allowed nothing to backs so far so maybe Dak chucks with them missing Horn. Lamb is still moving around with 27.2% of his snaps in the slot so Donte Jackson wouldn’t be a concern, especially considering he’s allowed a 2.27 FPPT. 

That matchup also probably matters for Amari Cooper who may be an even better GPP target. Coop has done squat since Week 1 and is battling an injury, but he’s suffered through the same script concerns Lamb has. His target share is only 22.9% with the addition of Schultz and the backs in this passing game but the loss of Horn is a big deal and it’s a lot to ask Henderson to walk into a new system. I’m not totally bought into Carolina being a defensive juggernaut but I don’t think anyone is a cash play. 

TE – It seems like it’s a pretty large chase of a monster game, but you could legit do worse than Dalton Schultz. Through three games, he’s sixth in receptions and seventh in yards and he’s being targeted for a 31.5% target rate on his routes. He’s still not running a ton of routes at just 48 but with Gallup out, he seems to be filling the void a bit behind Cooper and Lamb. 

D/ST – The Dallas defense is playing worlds better than we thought, sitting 15th in DVOA overall, and is very affordable. After CMC left last week, the Carolina offense didn’t look like they were anything special either. If you believe the Diggs can contain Moore, they can probably find success in this spot. They lead the league in takeaways despite only having four sacks on the season so you can do worse in this range. 

Cash Plays – Zeke, Dak, Schultz

GPP Plays – Lamb, Cooper, D/ST 

Giants at Saints, O/U of 42 (Saints -7.5) 

Giants 

QB – It’s a little bit difficult to point to the thing that Daniel Jones does well for fantasy. He is third in rushing yards among quarterbacks but I can’t say that’s going to continue with total confidence. He’s 10th in FPDB but he only has two passing touchdowns, is 15th in yards, and 16th in attempts. Even once they hit the RZ, Jones is just 15th in attempts there and his four RZ carries don’t seem like they’ll stick while Saquon is back. Now kick in that New Orleans is the sixth-best DVOA defense against the pass and will be playing the first true home game in the dome this season and I won’t be playing Jones this week. 

RB – It’s not an easy matchup but Saquon Barkley is still under $7,000 and has to be considered. He touched the ball 22 times last week and six of those were receptions, which is more what we want anyway. He played over 80% of the snaps yet again and appears to be full over his ACL injury. Saquon is sixth in routes across all running backs, which is impressive considering how little he played in Week 1. He also has eight touches inside the RZ and even though the Saints are third in DVOA against the run, they’re allowing five receptions per game to the position as well. Saquon is the type of talent that can overcome a tough matchup. 

WR – I would have to assume very strongly that Kenny Golladay will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore and I just don’t want much to do with that. Golladay is not the type of receiver that I trust in tough matchups yet, nor do I trust Jones to get him the ball. He’s not traveling into the slot at all and that’s no surprise, so Lattimore and his 59.1 passer rating allowed and his 0.96 FPPT will go after Golladay. 

After that, we’re not sure yet. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were forced from last week’s game with hamstrings. We can talk about them if they’re in but if they are out, Collin Johnson could be interesting. He played almost half of the snaps and would up co-leading the team in targets. If Golladay is having a rough time, the ball has to go somewhere. Johnson, Barkley, and the tight end would be leading candidates. 

Update – Shepard and Slayton are both out so my attention turns to Johnson. I’ve seen some folks talk about Kadrius Toney and he did play a lot last week, with 65.7% of the snaps. His three targets combined for an aDOT of 3.0 yards and Johnson had an aDOT of 11.4 yards. Perhaps with the attention going towards the tight end, Johnson winds up being sneaky. To me, I’ll take the role of Johnson over Tonery and hoping he breaks a big play.

TE – It was a pretty encouraging start for Evan Engram in his first game of the season. He ran 26 routes and played 21 snaps in the slot, which was 56.8% of the time. He only caught two passes but he was targeted six times and the receiving corps could be battered in this game. We’ll need to circle back later in the week for clarity on the situation. 

D/ST – New York just really lacks playmakers on this side of the ball and are the bottom 12 in pressures, have three takeaways, and are 23rd in overall DVOA. The only way this play would pay off is if they got a full Jameis Meltdown. 

Cash Plays – Saquon, Engram

GPP Plays – Johnson, Toney

Saints 

QB – I honestly wish I knew what to do with Jameis Winston. The easy track is just to say skip him because he’s only thrown the ball 63 times this season, 30th in the league. That simply won’t cut it most weeks as the Saints have turned into a run-first team and leaning on the defense. He’s 30th in passing yards, 30th in air yards, and the touchdowns have saved him. He’s thrown seven but only two since Week 1. The Giants are 20th in DVOA against the pass and have given up the 12th most passing yards along with six touchdowns. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Jameis eclipse 18-20 DK, but I’m not terribly enthused to find out at this volume. 

RB – Alvin Kamara resides third in the NFL in carries, which is great but only has 10 receptions through three games which are not so great. Even without the receiving floor being what we’re accustomed to, Kamara is still in a very good spot. The Giants are 23rd in DVOA against the run and they have gotten smashed through the air against backs so far. Only the Seahawks have allowed more than the 202 yards receiving New York has allowed and they have allowed the sixth-most receptions. Kamara is still carrying the highest target share on the team at 26.9% and this could be the first game where we really see the dual-threat ability. I will point out that target share isn’t even five targets per game yet. He would be a fascinating pivot if Henry is the chalk at the position. 

Update – I’d give Kamara a slight downgrade since he will be without starting center in Erik McCoy and tackle Terron Armstead. The flip side is maybe they really get him going in the passing game this week.

WR – I’m not falling for the Marquez Callaway game. His touchdown was just a wild heave by Jameis that should have been picked off. He has all of seven receptions all season long, which is just way too thin to trust even at the salary. He’s 89th in routes, 72nd in targets, and 48th in target share. Let’s move on. It’s crazy how disgusting the Saints’ offense got for fantasy within the space of an offseason. The matchup is solid if he avoided James Bradberry but this still isn’t a spot to attack and we may have even better and cheaper value. 

TE – Adam Trautman has had two straight games with zero fantasy points and Juwan Johnson has scored just 3.3 DK over the past two games after his two-touchdown game in Week 1. 

D/ST – I absolutely love the play in a vacuum as the Saints blitz at a top 12 rate, have a top 10 pressure rate, and have seven takeaways. It’s really just a matter if they fit, and they will likely not make it in my builds since I never pay up for defenses. 

Cash Plays – Kamara

GPP Plays – Jameis, D/ST 

Browns at Vikings, O/U of 51.5 (Browns -2)

Browns 

QB – Maybe the Vikings can force the Browns out of their game plan here and how the ball a little more, but you had better hope that happens if you’re playing Baker Mayfield. He’s 28th in attempts, 16th in passing yards, 24th in air yards, 26th in RZ attempts, and 14th in true completion rate with only two touchdown passes all year. To Baker’s credit, he is 15th in FPDB but this is a run-first team when they play the style they want to. Mayfield is more important to real-life football than he is to fantasy football at this juncture. Minnesota sits 24th in DVOA and they have given up the fourth-mod passing yards so there is a scenario where Baker is well worth playing but I think we have better options. 

RB – Kareem Hunt tilted people that played Nick Chubb off the face of the planet last week, and it’s still the same story as it always is with Cleveland. Chubb is going to get the majority of the carries while Hunt gets 6-10 carries a week and the vast majority of the targets. The RZ work has been split so far with Chubb holding an 11-6 edge but you saw last week where the floor is for Chubb. He had no receptions and no touchdowns so his 84 rushing yards was all you got. With the Vikings ranked 27th in DVOA against the run, both players can be considered and with the receiving corps in tatters, you can argue Hunt has the safer floor. He could take a lot of work with no Jarvis Landry and it may not have been an accident he saw seven targets last week. 

WR – I’m going to let Ian (who is a great follow) handle this one – 

Beckham played 64% of the snaps, had a 49.2% air yards share, and nine targets in his first game back from an ACL tear. He’s under $6,000 and this game has one of the highest O/U on the slate, not to mention Jarvis Landry is still out with his MCL sprain. Let’s. Go. No other receiver had more than two targets last week and Beckham is going to get fed. 

TE – With a low-volume offense and multiple tight ends splitting snaps, it just seems like a terrible idea to play just about any of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. The first two have maintained a snap rate over 60% and Hooper is sporting a 14.3% target share to lead 10.4% from the other two. With Beckham back and Hunt involved in the passing game, you’re banking on a touchdown from Hooper. Even then, he scored and had all of 9.9 DK points last week. Playing Hooper means you think this game really gets up and down, which is a possibility. 

D/ST – Cleveland has a top 10 defense in DVOA but I have to be honest, I’m not that interested in going against this Vikings offense right now. They’ve only allowed five sacks and the Browns have only forced two turnovers. 

Cash Plays – Beckham, Hunt

GPP Plays – Chubb, Baker, Hooper 

Vikings 

QB – I said last week that Kirk Cousins is all steak, no sizzle and then he went and put up a casual 28 DK points. He was phenomenal with 323 yards and three touchdowns and that’s proof of how well he’s played so far. Cousins is seventh in yards, eighth in attempts, and 13th in FPDB while sitting sixth in points per game. He’s also second in true completion rate and has command of this Vikings offense. For what it’s worth, he is second in QBR and his true passer rating is 127.5. Cleveland is 10th in DVOA against the pass but the Vikings receivers offer a tough matchup for anyone and Cousins knows where to put the ball to take advantage. 

RB – We aren’t sure yet if Dalvin Cook makes it back for Week 4, but Alexander Mattison proved once again that the backfield is in capable hands if Cook misses. He gouged Seattle on almost every play to finish with 171 scrimmage yards and he put up 26 DK without the benefit of a touchdown. The Vikings used him in all facets of the game with 32 total touches, which is phenomenal. Cleveland has been tough against the run so far, ranking fourth in DVOA and only allowing 151 yards on the ground and 93 through the air. Both Cook and Mattison will likely be lower rostered, but I will prefer other players in each price range. 

Update – Cook is on track to make his return to the lineup this week.

WR – With the knowledge that Denzel Ward is on the other side but doesn’t shadow typically, that makes this spot interesting for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. They both only roll into the slot about 17% of the time so the focus is on the boundaries for both. It looks a little bit like last year if we’re being honest. JJ is fifth in routes, eighth in air yards share, 10th in both receptions and yards, but has two scores to four for Thielen. The latter is only 36th in yards so he’s being buoyed by the touchdowns, which has been happening since the start of last season. It should also be noted that as of the early going, Ward has not been that great with a 114.3 passer rating, a 1.77 FPPT, and a 76.9% catch rate across 13 targets. That’s not someone that I actively shy away from statistically. Troy Hill has been the slot corner for Cleveland and has been targeted all of once so I’m not actively going after K.J. Osborn since I don’t believe Cousins will support both receivers and both Osborn and the tight end. It will typically be one or the other. 

TE – Ty Conklin had himself a game last week instead of Osborn but we should likely be careful. Half of his 16 targets came just last week and we saw Cousins and company did whatever they wanted. Conklin is on the field all the time at 74% and has a 13.7% target share. He is also still 14th in routes and 16th in target rate, which is not spectacular. Conklin does have 13 receptions which are seventh in the league. He’s a fine option but if he’s popular, I’ll back off outside of possibly cash. 

D/ST – The Vikes are tied for the fourth-most sacks and have benefited greatly from the return of Danielle Hunter in their pass rush. They also only have two takeaways but it is nice to see Baker has been sacked nine times already. Minnesota is 25th in DVOA on the whole so this is an unstable play, but the price isn’t bad. 

Cash Plays – Cousins, Cook

GPP Plays – Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin

Colts at Dolphins, O/U of 42.5 (Dolphins -2)

Colts 

QB – At the risk of cutting GravMatt in Discord deeply, Carson Wentz is just bad. I can’t slice it any other way. The offensive line and coaching in Indy were supposed to revive his career but he’s dealt with injuries again and he sits 29th in clean completion rate. He’s also 30th in catchable pass rate and 26th in FPDB. I’m struggling for reasons to play him when Miami is seventh in DVOA and has only given up five touchdown passes so far. 

RB – Another case of the secondary back outscoring the primary back so far, we’ve arrived at Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. It was very frustrating to see JT get just 10 carries on Sunday considering he ripped off 64 yards rushing and the game wasn’t crazily tilted at any point. Hines had the same amount of total touches at 11 but five of those were receptions and he scored the touchdown, which tilted the score easily towards him. This has to be the week for Taylor. Miami has allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season although they do rank 14th in DVOA against the run. Despite splitting the snaps, Taylor is 12th in carries and second in RZ touches and that’s going to pay off at some point. He’s also 16th in rushing yards overall and there are too many metrics that point to an explosion game sooner or later. 

Update – Quenton Nelson being out doesn’t help the offensive line although Marlon Mack being a scratch would theoretically help the floors for Taylor and Hines.

WR – Michael Pittman is well in play and has been great the past couple of weeks but we’re starting with Zach Pascal. He’s running the most slot snaps of any player in the NFL at 75.6% and running the 11th most routes. He is also third in RZ targets with three touchdowns. The Dolphins have split the slot with Nik Needham and Justin Coleman and both have a FPPT over 1.47 while Coleman is over 2.75. With Pittman having to deal with the duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, we could see work get funneled to Pascal just like we saw last week when Hunter Renfroe paid off for the Raiders. To his credit, Pittman has the sixth-highest air yards share and the seventh-most routes in the league. He’s had 12 targets in each of the past couple of games and has four RZ targets himself. Jones and Howard haven’t been total lockdown corners and Pittman’s best game came with Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the field. Both are in play, but I’ll take the savings on Pascal. 

TE – Jack Doyle is 12th in routes but only 14th in targets and 20th in receptions so far. He’s very cheap but this offense is pretty gross and I might rather play Tremble. Doyle is barely fourth on his own team in targets and his quarterback is one of the worst around. 

D/ST – Indy has only been 21st in DVOA in the first three weeks and has the fewest pressures in the league so far. The good thing is they have forced six takeaways and face a backup quarterback, so they’re still in play but not my favorite of the bunch. 

Cash Plays – Pascal, JT

GPP Plays – Pittman, Hines, D/ST 

Dolphins 

QB – It took 49 attempts but Jacoby Brissett clawed his way to 20.3 DK points last week and remains dirt cheap. While he’s a competent backup, I’m not sure how often we want to go to the well here. Brissett is only throwing for 4.3 yards per attempt, which is 30th and is 34th in FPDB. I grant you that it’s a smaller sample, but he had the full week to prepare and that’s not super encouraging. Miami isn’t going to want him to throw nearly 50 times per game. Indy has been a defense we have picked on with passing games and they are 21st in DVOA, but I’m not super thrilled with this selection. 

RB – There were some encouraging signs for Myles Gaskin as he carried the ball 13 times last week and had six targets. Normally I’d be quick to jump on that volume at $5,300 but he still saw Malcolm Brown usurp seven carries and he got two RZ carries while Gaskin had zero. On the season, Gaskin has just one RZ carry while Brown has four and that’s a huge roadblock to any type of ceiling. The Colts have been middling against the run so far but the DVOA looks stronger at 11th but they have given up 324 rushing yards. If Gaskin is just a between the 20’s player, we can find better options. Players like him need to be involved with all facets of the game. 

WR – There has to be a point where Jaylen Waddle uses his speed and YAC ability to break a big play, but in the meantime, he’s getting nine targets per game and running the 10th most routes per contest. Waddle is a great fit on DK because he’s fifth in receptions already. The low aDOT of 4.6 is helping since he’s catching nearly everything thrown his way. He leads the team in targets and brings a floor while we haven’t seen the ceiling yet with his explosiveness. Waddle is also playing 56% in the slot so the safety valve role works fine at this price tag. 

Choosing between DeVante Parker and Will Fuller is a little tougher as Fuller came back into the lineup and saw six targets on 61% of the snaps and the aDOT was 20.2 yards. I’d love to see Fuller get matched against Rock Ya-Sin with a massive speed advantage and he’s still super cheap. The role he had last week is encouraging as a deep threat while Parker is the safer bet, but likely with less of a ceiling. When things are going well, Fuller and Waddle are the 1-2 punch in this corps. 

TE – Can someone explain why Mike Gesick has run 87 routes but 44 came this week? Why suddenly is Gesicki used in the passing game when Tua is hurt? It’s almost like Miami wants Tua to fail and do things to openly sabotage him. Gesicki is an athletic freak and using him in this style while Tua is out after he only ran 43 routes combined the first two weeks just makes ZERO sense. It’s absolutely ridiculous. You’re supposed to put the young, inexperienced quarterback in positions to make the job easier, not harder. Anyways, if Gesicki is going to run that many routes and carry a 24% target rate while doing it he’s just far too cheap and Brissett has a history of liking his tight ends. I didn’t like him last week based on the usage that Miami showed us. It’s not chasing a big game when the usage backs everything up. 

D/ST – Miami is seventh in overall DVOA, has five turnovers, and is middle of the pack as far as pressures go. As long as Wentz is active on the other side, I’m fine with the opposing defense. He’s being pressured 32% of the time, which is top-four in the league. 

Cash Plays – Waddle, Gesicki

GPP Plays – Fuller, Brissett, D/ST 

Washington at Falcons, O/U of 47 (Washington -1)

Washington 

QB – We have to be careful where we’d want to play Taylor Heinicke because he’s going to be prone to games like last week when the matchup is tilted out of his favor. He saved his day with three total touchdowns but the completion rate was under 60% and he’s pretty lucky a running back housed a screen from a long distance. So far, the FPDB is actually stout at .63, which is ninth in the NFL. He is 10th in true completion rate and with Atlanta sitting 30th in DVOA and giving up an 8:0 TD:INT ratio, Heinicke isn’t the worst play at the position this week. 

RB – Note to Washington – throw the ball to Antonio Gibson. Even RG3 knows the score here – 

Gibson only had one other target the rest of the game, which is immensely frustrating. This game got ugly early so I’m not going to tag them for not giving him more than 12 carries, but that had better change this week. Atlanta has not shown much on either side of the ball, sitting 24th in DVOA and allowing almost 400 total scrimmage yards so far. Gibson is first in evaded tackles, 10th in rush yards, and 12th in receiving yards despite sitting 32nd in routes and 30th in receptions. Washington has to get the ball to him in space more often, especially with the inexperience they have at quarterback. I will continue to play Gibson over J.D. McKissic, regardless of the $1,100 gap in salary. 

WR – The only player I’m looking at on a full slate is Terry McLaurin who is in a much better spot than last week. The Atlanta defense as a whole has already allowed five touchdowns and 495 yards against receivers and aside from some sketchy quarterback play at times, there is still plenty to like. He’s 11th in target share at 28.1% and is 13th in receptions and only 18 of 25 targets have been catchable. McLaurin has 19 receptions so that tells you a lot and I’m sure the Falcons will want to pair him against A.J. Terrell as much as they can. He’s only been targeted four times so far and has yet to allow a single catch through three games, which is impressive. No other receiver is sitting above a 15.9% target share and Adam Humphries is tied with the tight end for second in targets on the team. 

Update – In a surprise, Curtis Samuel is active for this game after practicing all week in pads. I thought we might be able to go there for cash since he is the minimum salary but I’m a little leery after seeing Coach Rivera (congratulations to him on his one-year anniversary for being cancer free) say they’ll “sprinkle him in”. I’m still more than fine in GPP and I guess if the rest of the lineup is loaded….maybe cash. You have to know there’s a risk even at minimum.

TE – No other tight end runs more snaps out of the slot than Logan Thomas and he’s ninth in routes run. The 15.7% target share is eighth among tight ends and he’s accumulated three RZ targets as well. I feel like he’s a little expensive for the role and the quarterback throwing him the ball but the Falcons have already allowed three touchdowns against tight ends. We know more or less who Thomas is and he’s fine, but not anything more in my eyes. 

D/ST – They string of the last three weeks and the price has me not interested in Washington. They are 29th in DVOA, which is pretty shocking given what they have on that side of the ball and they’ve only forced two turnovers and have just six sacks (in fairness, they are tied for the second-most pressures in football). I just wish they were cheaper even against the Falcons. 

Cash Plays – Gibson, Thomas 

GPP Plays – McLaurin, Samuel, Heinicke, D/ST

Falcons 

QB – I think Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger are competing to see who is more washed up at this point. Ryan is 29th in yards per attempt, 34th in air yards per attempt, 28th in air yards, and 28th in FPDB. It’s not looking like the best decision ever from the Falcons to pass on quarterback at the fourth pick in the draft. The only thing Ryan is still doing well is coming from play-action since he sits sixth in pass attempts from that play type and first in completion rate. Washington has been horrid defending the pass sitting at 29th in DVOA and allowing the fifth-most passing yards thus far. Ryan is at home and he’s cheap but the true upside seems a bit lacking. 

RB – Cordarrelle Patterson outscored Mike Davis for the second straight week and his role in the offense is becoming undeniable. He is only playing 35.9% of the snaps but he has 21 carries and is only one RZ carry behind Davis at 3-4. He also has 15 targets to 20 for Davis, but has been equal to Davis or has had more the past two weeks. Even his seasonal rate is a solid 12.4% target share and he’s third in receiving yards among backs and seventh in receptions. When Patterson is getting seven carries per game on top of that, this is a pretty cheap 12-14 touches and the Falcons are taking advantage of the skill set. Washington is not playing defense at the level we thought they would as they sit 20th in DVOA against the run. I also believe even though they’ve allowed just eight receptions to backs, that has been more about the teams they have faced than anything else. They got lucky that Austin Ekeler didn’t have a target in Week 1 and Saquon wasn’t up to speed Week 2. With the RZ work being very close, I prefer Patterson.

WR – Calvin Ridley has seen his price fall and even with the concerns with Ryan, I’m really looking at him in GPP. Let’s look deeper. Ridley is fifth in routes, third in RZ targets, third in air yards share, 10th in receptions, and has 157 unrealized air yards. It has to start converting at some point here and he’s being fed nearly 10 targets per game. He doesn’t head into the slot very much at just 9% so he’ll see both Kendall Fuller and William Jackson. Fuller has allowed a 1.71 FPPT and over 200 yards already while Jackson is faring better with a 1.06 FPPT. 

I just can’t buy into Olamide Zaccheaus even after a solid game because I can’t imagine he gets the same amount of work. As it was he was only third on the team with six and he converted his lone RZ target for a score. Normally, a 3/32 line won’t pay the bills and I’ll focus elsewhere. 

TE – Oh Kyle Pitts, why do you torture us? To be more accurate, why does your franchise insist on taking you fourth overall to not give you a target before the fourth quarter and just three overall? Pitts is sixth in slot snaps, eighth in air yards, eighth in yards, 12th in receptions, and ninth in target share at 15.2%. The issues include only sitting 26th in yards per route and 19th in yards per target. His usage is mostly all we could ask for and he’s the TE15…but he’s just not my favorite target in this offense and that goes for real life as well, apparently. 

D/ST – They’re in the bottom three in DVOA and have six sacks along with two takeaways. 

Cash Plays – Ridley 

GPP Plays – Pitts, Patterson, Davis 

Seahawks at 49ers, O/U of 51.5 (49ers -3)

Seahawks 

QB – Seeing the injury issues the 49ers had on Sunday night in their secondary has to make Russell Wilson salivate for this matchup. It still makes me sad that he’s 26th in pass attempts so far. How does Seattle not understand he’s their best shot with that atrocious defense on the other side of the ball? Despite being 26th in attempts, Russ is eighth in passing yards, first in yards per attempt, and fifth in touchdowns on only six RZ attempts. SIX. The most important part of the field but we’re going to give Russ two cracks at it per game. Alrighty then! When he’s kept clean, Russ is first in completion rate and he’s third in passer rating. San Fran is only 19th in DVOA and Wilson will likely be mostly ignored again. Give this guy more attempts! 

RB – I definitely feel concerned a little bit about Chris Carson and where the floor is for him. Perhaps I shouldn’t be because his receiving share really isn’t off base from last season. He’s 15th in carries on the season and fifth in rushing yards, both of which are solid starts. However, he has very little after that with just five targets on the season and he starts to need touchdowns to pay off in a major way. Consider Carson broke off a 30-yard touchdown run early in the game on Sunday but in a trailing game script, he played just 43% of the snaps. Last year saw Carson have an 8% target share and while this year is only at 7%, two targets a game don’t help the cause at this salary. The 49ers are 16th in DVOA and knowing Carson played so little last week when the game was trailing has to be considered. 

WR – DK Metcalf certainly feels too cheap yet again after he went for over 25 DK last week and the man might be the most unique blend of speed and size at the receiver position. Metcalf is still ninth in unrealized air yards but his 2.65 yards per route honestly helps his stability a little bit. Metcalf can stretch the field any time he pleases and he took over the target lead from Tyler Lockett at 25-20. Despite Lockett’s massive start, Metcalf is only 14.9 points behind in PPR and he could face Emmanuel Moseley. He’s 190 pounds and under six feet tall and DK will have an incredible physical mismatch. Lockett is sitting at a 22.5% slot rate and is 15th in air yards himself and we’ve seen the ceiling he carries. As long as the knee injury doesn’t hold him back, the possibility of corner K’Waun Williams won’t either. 

Update – Williams is out and corner Josh Norman is doubtful, not a good mix when facing these two receivers.

TE – Is Gerald Everett playable at his price? I suppose, but the 11.3% target share isn’t something monstrous. Everett has lined up in the slot for 31.4% of his snaps which is 12th but he’s also 21st in receptions and 25th in yards. He’s had exactly one RZ target which isn’t fun to see either so I’m likely going elsewhere. 

Update – Everett is out for Sunday, which could open up Will Dissly as a punt option. I’m not crazy about it, but it helps that the split of targets among both tight ends should funnel directly to Dissly. Then we’re talking about 5-7 targets at $2,600. 

D/ST – This defense has been an abject disaster, there’s no way I’m going here even against a very average quarterback. 

Cash Plays – Metcalf, Lockett, Russ, Carson 

GPP Plays – Dissly 

49ers 

QB – If you have to bring in the rookie quarterback when you’re close to the goal line and the plays are the most important, he should be getting more time anyways but I digress. In fairness, Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play nearly as poorly as the public would have you believe but he had multiple open receivers that he missed. He also had one of the more egregious twirling fumbles I’ve ever seen to gift the Packers a field goal (the 49ers last by two) and if Jimmy G can’t get it done here, he needs to get worried. Seattle has given up the seventh-most passing yards with no interceptions and is 24th in DVOA. San Francisco has a full complement of pass catchers and it’s put up or shut up time for Garoppolo. 

RB – I’m really hoping that Elijah Missile (credit to the Fantasy Footballers for that nickname) is back for this one. Trey Sermon scored a touchdown but my word did he look bad for the most part in that game. He had a dropped pass and looked apprehensive in almost everything he did which is understandable for a rookie. I’m not talking down on him but I would have to think that since Mitchell has shown he can produce, he’d go right back to the lead role and that would be insanely valuable this week. Seattle is 18th in DVOA but just got totally carved up by Mattison on the Vikings, to say nothing of Derrick Henry. Mitchell may not be at that level but has racked up 146 rushing yards on 36 carries so far and would be a very strong play at this price point against the team that has allowed 661 scrimmage yards to running backs so far, easily the most in football. 

Update – Mitchell remains questionable. If Mitchell can’t make this game…..a very crazy play is Kyle Juszczyk. Jus (the more times I have to spell his last name means I’m one time closer to making a mistake) played almost 70% of the snaps and had nine touches. He had more targets than Sermon and his five carries were half of 10 for Sermon. Jus also took two RZ targets, one behind Aiyuk for the team lead. We’re talking a strong path to under five DK points, but it’s at least on the board if Kittle is out as well.

WR – Let’s start off by saying the corners of Seattle like D.J. Reed and Tre Flowers don’t scare anyone. Flowers is getting smacked for a 2.39 FPPT and a 138.4 passer rating and Reed has a 1.71 FPPT mark with a 103.3 passer rating. Now that we’ve established that, let’s welcome Brandon Aiyuk back into the world of fantasy. He played 87.7% of the snaps and saw six targets, which was easily the best of the young season. He also had three EZ targets and the salary has not caught up at $5,000. I would prefer playing him as a run-back over Deebo Samuel at a $1,500 price difference. It’s going to be tough to support all three pass catchers in the offense every game, but if there’s a game to do it…this sure could be the one to do it. Deebo is still 10th in receptions and second in receiving yards, so it’s not like he is priced egregiously. It’s just that much easier to take the Aiyuk route and that likely leaves Deebo as an elite game stacking option. 

TE – When you have a quarterback who is limited like Jimmy G, you should want George Kittle out in the field all the time to catch passes, despite him being an incredible blocker. Kittle is 17th in routes run, which is frankly absurd. His target rate is 28.1% on his routes which is seventh and Kittle is fifth and third in receptions and yards, respectively. All of that is on just 64 routes through three games! The Niners trailed almost the entire game last week and he still wasn’t used enough, although 7/92 isn’t that bad. Kittle is under $6,000 in a high total game, and that’s pretty much all I need to hear. 

Update – Shanahan is saying that Kittle is not guaranteed to play on Sunday so we need to keep an eye on that.

D/ST – I’m not playing defense against Russ, especially when the secondary could be this battered. 

Cash Plays – Mitchell (if healthy), Aiyuk, Kittle (if healthy)

GPP Plays – Deebo, Jus

Cardinals at Rams, O/U of 55 (Rams -4)

Cardinals 

QB – It was a funky game from Kyler Murray last game but I have absolutely no worries coming into this one. His history against the Rams is not great but things change so fast in the NFL. This offense is different with added weapons and the Rams are only 13th in DVOA against the pass. Kyler is also extremely difficult to defend in general and has plenty of rushing upside regardless of the matchup. He’s third in passing yards, seventh in RZ attempts, just 17th in attempts, and second in FPDB because he has 70 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to go along with everything else. You can play him by himself or with any other passing option in this game as we try and find ways to get unique since this game should carry the most popularity. 

RB – James Conner stealing two touchdowns was annoying and it was going to happen at some point considering he has eight RZ carries to just three for Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds still has 31 carries to 35 for Conner and Edmonds has a 17.4% target share compared to just one lone target for Conner through three weeks. Two targets have come in the RZ so the gap in touches there is a little bit smaller as well. This game should feature plenty of passing from each team and the Rams are only 21st in DVOA against the run to this point. Combining that with them giving up 19 receptions to the backs, and Edmonds is still the better play in my eyes since the prices are so close together. 

WR – This is a spot where I absolutely don’t blame the Cardinals for doing it, but this receiving corps could be a real pain to project every week. All four of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green are all between a target share of 18% and 14%. The scary part is Nuk is third, and we still have Edmonds taking up targets as well. It makes the offense that much harder to defend but it’s almost like pulling straws to see who goes off every week. Jalen Ramsey typically doesn’t shadow but he can and I would expect him to have plenty of time on Hopkins. I don’t view him as the best spend in this game if he’s going to be hampered by a rib injury and sees one of the better corners in football. FWIW, he has yet to exceed 21 DK points in any of his four games against the Rams. 

So if we’re stacking, we have to go elsewhere in my eyes, and Green and Kirk are leading the pack. Green has four RZ targets and has been mostly on the outside and would have a big height advantage over Darious Williams and his 1.53 FPPT. Kirk has been in the slot about 60% of the time and sits 10th in yards per route at 3.37. Now, Ramsey has played plenty of slot corner at 53.7% so he could draw the worst matchup but I also have a hard time believing the Rams just give Hopkins a free run in this game. Moore is a super exciting player, but it was discouraging to see him fall under a 35% snaps rate last week and that’s a major red flag after almost 50% in Week 2. 

TE – I did get Maxx Williams right last week, meaning he did virtually nothing on just three targets. I stand firm in the fact Week 2 will likely be his best week of the year and seven of his 11 targets came in that week. He wouldn’t even be on the radar without that week. 

D/ST – Nope. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, Edmonds, Kirk, Green 

GPP Plays – Hopkins, Moore 

Rams 

QB – It’s kind of funny to see Matthew Stafford only 22nd in passing attempts because I definitely thought the Rams would be more pass-heavy with him. He’s turned that into the fifth-most pass yards, the sixth-most air yards, nine touchdowns, and the fifth-highest FPDB. Stafford is one of the (very) early front runners for MVP and the price is more than fair. 

RB – It appears that Darrell Henderson has a good shot to make it back this week and if he does, he could be a great pivot from the passing games in this contest. Henderson has exceeded 15 touches in each of his two starts so far and scored in each one. Being attached to one of the best passing attacks in football has privileges because, in two games, Henderson only saw a stacked front 20.7% of the time. Sony Michel could wind up being more involved since he had a whopping 23 touches without Henderson in but Henderson is still expected to be the lead back and is very cheap for this contest. Surprisingly, these teams are in the bottom 12 in the pace of play early on but the offensive firepower will make up for that. 

Update – Henderson is fully expected to play in this game and is a very affordable way to get into this game.

WR – Play Cooper Kupp. That is all. 

Alright, not really. You should play Kupp because he’s been amazing and leads the league in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and he’s third in yards per route run. His 35.5% target share is fourth and there’s not much left to say about him right now. 

Having said all that and believing it, Robert Woods continues to be a strong GPP option because he still has a 20% target share, four RZ targets, and three EZ targets. He will not continue to convert a little over half of his targets and while he may not be the alpha on the squad, his role is still valuable and as much as I love Kupp, he’s not scoring 30 DK every single week (I think). Robert Alford and Byron Murphy have both allowed either a 72% catch rate or a FPPT of 1.85, so we should have little concern there. Lastly, I would caution chasing the DeSean Jackson game. He was a monster but played just 32% of the snaps and actually had one fewer target than Van Jefferson. 

TE – Tyler Higbee continues to play a massive amount of snaps at 93.5% and he’s fourth in that stat. Higbee is also fifth in RZ targets and has a 12.9% target share on the season thus far. The Cards have allowed the second-fewest yards and only eight receptions against tight ends, but they haven’t exactly played strong options so that is less of a concern for me. Higbee is solid but he may need a touchdown to pay off in this game. 

D/ST – Also nope. 

Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford, Higbee

GPP Plays – Woods, Jefferson, Henderson (or Michel if Henderson can’t make it)

Steelers at Packers, O/U of 46 (Packers -6.5)

Steelers 

QB – I’m going to be short and sweet here, and this sucks. Just watch Ben Roethlisberger after he “throws” this ball – 

Don’t play Big Ben. 

RB – We saw last week that Najee Harris is never fully out of play since the Pittsburgh offense can’t move the ball and he’s going to see just a ridiculous amount of targets. Having said that, it has to be talked about that Diontae Johnson was out and JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game having played not even 40% of the snaps. The Packers are vulnerable against the run ranking 28th in DVOA and they’ve allowed 353 scrimmage yards along with three touchdowns. This game projects to be a very negative game script for Pittsburgh so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Najee with another 10 carries and 6-8 receptions, regardless of who’s playing receiver. 

WR – The practice reports are crucial here because Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s status could make a massive difference. Johnson was limited on Wednesday so that’s a good sign and I’ll be interested if he’s active. Jaire Alexander doesn’t always shadow and Johnson has a massive 30.5% target share. He’s one of the sharpest route runners in football and will be almost guaranteed 10+ targets. 

JuJu did not practice but that doesn’t mean a lot at this point. He’s cheap enough to consider I guess but a 4.1 aDOT and the third-most targets are not a good mix. That’s not even mentioning that Harris will eat targets as well. Chase Claypool needed both receivers out to have a game worth fantasy consideration, and he would likely see some of Alexander with just an 11.6% slot rate. Claypool is fourth in unrealized air yards, but we can’t be confident that trend reverses. Let’s circle back on Friday to see who all will be in this game. 

Update – Diontae is expected to play and is line for at least 10 targets, no issues with playing him. He also may need to stretch the field a bit more because Claypool may miss this game. He went from limited on Thursday and DNP on Friday. JuJu is there but I almost never play him. Packers corner Kevin King is doubtful so that helps Diontae because he could see more of rookie Eric Stokes.

TE – Pat Freiermuth has clearly overtaken Eric Ebron in production at this position but I may not get too carried away here. He’s 30th in routes because the offensive line needs all the help it can get and he’s not even inside the top 20 in receptions or yards. Maybe if the receivers are out again, I’ll change my mind but I’m not there yet. The fact Claypool may not play could get the rookie a couple of more targets.

D/ST – Do we play defenses (even though T.J. Watt is back) against the Packers at home when they’re healthy? We do not, let’s keep going. 

Cash Plays – Harris, Johnson 

GPP Plays – JuJu, Freiermuth

Packers 

QB – I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers should be under $7,000 on DK this week at home against a reeling Steelers squad. They just let Joe Burrow throw for three touchdowns on just 18 pass attempts and they’re not going to have a single answer for the lead receiver in this game. What is kind of funny is the metrics for Rodgers don’t look as great as you would expect. He’s only 24th in attempts, 26th in passing yards, 22nd in air yards, and 17th in FPDB. Just remember, one of their games this year was one of the worst that Rodgers has ever played. That skews the numbers. He’s still seventh in RZ attempts and my only fear is they don’t need to pass a ton because the game is won early. Having said that, he could easily go for 275 yards or more and three touchdowns so I’m very interested. 

RB – I’ll be honest, it’s going to be difficult to not play Davante Adams at what amounts to the same exact price. However, I don’t think I’ll be alone in that thought process and Aaron Jones could well turn into an elite pivot. Pittsburgh does rank sixth in DVOA against the run so far but Joe Mixon found some success last week and the Packers are very unlikely to just abandon the run completely. In addition, only Henry and CMC have more RZ rushes than 13 for Jones and he’s tacked on five targets. That’s six RZ touches per game to this point which is the most among backs and if he finds the end zone instead of Adams, we know what the upside is and it is extreme. 

WR – I know it can be tough to narrow things down but Davante Adams has to be very high on the list of my favorite plays on the slate. He is unstoppable and past Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the secondary for Pittsburgh is not great. Adams is first in receptions, fourth in yards, seventh in yards per route, eighth in RZ targets, and second in target share at 37.4%. He should not be under $8,000 on the main slate for any reason. 

We can also continue to plays Marquez Valdes-Scantling since he only needs one big play to pay off and he’s number one in unrealized air yards. I can’t imagine that continues with Rodgers as his quarterback and only six of his 16 targets have been ruled catchable. Sometimes air yards can be a bit misleading because air yards don’t always translate to catchable passes. When there’s a poor quarterback, I’d be concerned. That’s about as far as possible from the case here. MVS also has three EZ targets, which lead the team right now. No other player outside of Jones has a target share over 6% so we can move on. 

Update – MVS is out and Adams is just going to smash.

TE – Robert Tonyan is really in an odd spot as far as salary. There are multiple options that are cheaper than he is that I would rather play because Tonyan has been exactly what we thought he would be – touchdown or bust. He’s 30th in receptions and 31st in yardage while sitting 25th in routes. If we’re playing these types of tight ends, just play Gesicki and hope Miami keeps him running routes. 

D/ST – If you just despise the punt options, I guess you can go here even though Green Bay has just five sacks and is 26th in DVOA. The Steelers offense and the play of the quarterback and offensive line equal things out, however. 

Cash Plays – Adams, Rodgers, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Jones

Ravens at Broncos, O/U of 45 (Broncos -1)

Ravens 

QB – This is a pretty interesting spot for Lamar Jackson and one I believe gets very little attention. Nobody is going to play him with the options around him. If the Ravens can’t get much going through the air against the secondary of Denver, Lamar will have even more incentive to take off out of the pocket and that just raises the floor and ceiling. He’s already at 251 rushing yards on 35 carries, both easily the first among quarterbacks. Now you add in the 761 passing yards and it’s easy to see why he’s fourth in FPDB on the young season. Denver is fifth against the pass in DVOA and they are under 600 yards allowed. Don’t forget, they have faced Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawerence, and Zach Wilson so far. Lamar has his warts but he is far better than those players at this juncture. 

RB – I feel like we need an ESPN 30 For 30 short just to explain why on this good Earth Ty’Son Williams suddenly only had five carries while Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman combined for 10. A week after coach John Harbaugh was praised for making the correct decision to go for it on 4th down against the Chiefs, he turns around and lets this happen. Now they have to go into Denver and face the eighth-ranked DVOA defense against the run and I’m not going to chase much here. Williams is averaging 6.1 YPC to 3.5 for Murray and Freeman has only had five attempts so far. Williams has shown some issues with ball security and blitz pickups, but if that didn’t get him in hot water against KC I’m not sure why it would now. Baltimore’s run game can make bad matchups irrelevant, but it won’t matter for fantasy with this three-way split. 

WR – My word, it should have been a massive day for Marquise Brown last week with multiple drops that really hampered his day. He leads the team in targets, air yards, RZ targets, and EZ targets but this matchup is not going to be easy. This is a tougher spot as Kyle Fuller and Patrick Surtain are both under a 60% completion rate allowed and under a 1.80 FPPT. Denver is also inside the top 10 in yards allowed against receivers but the price is right for GPP contests. Sammy Watkins only has 12 receptions so far and he could wind up being the third option in this offense. I’d rather not attack the corners here and would just play the tight end. 

TE – Mark Andrews had the game that some of his metrics had pointed to since he’s been running the 10th most routes and he has the fifth-most air yards. He’s still looking for his first trip to the end zone but just sitting seventh and fourth in receptions and yards is enough for him to be the TE9 on the season. We all know that he won’t go very long without a score but it is odd to see him have no RZ targets thus far. Denver has allowed basically zero production against the position but we have to consider the schedule and Andrews is easily the best one they have faced so far. With the potential of the corners muting the receivers, Andrews could wind up being the best player from this team. 

D/ST – Denver has only turned the ball over twice and Baltimore has only got home five times while sitting 20th in DVOA. I want some upside at their salary and I’m not sure if they have it this week. 

Cash Plays – Andrews, Jackson 

GPP Plays – Brown 

Broncos 

QB – Teddy Bridgewater had his first dud of a game on the season but we kind of saw that coming. He only had to throw the ball 25 times and there were no touchdowns to be had so the score looks very poor. He’s still 11th in yards, seventh in air yards, eighth in YPA, and 18th in FPDB. Baltimore has been vulnerable against the pass so far and ranks 20th in DVOA along with the third-most passing yards allowed. I don’t have a giant need for Teddy B, but I expect a much better game from him this week. 

RB – Speaking of split backfields, here’s Denver and the duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I think Williams is the better player and he’s evaded 14 tackles already, good for fifth in the league. I give credit for MG3 breaking a big run in Week 1, but that has skewed many metrics toward him including rushing yards and YPC. Still, all of this is a theoretical exercise. This is how much weight my thoughts on the split matter – 

It doesn’t matter if I think Javonte is better because the Broncos are 3-0 and this duo is doing everything they’re asked to do. The coaching staff is absolutely not changing what is working right now since Denver is tied for seventh in rushing yards per game. Gordon has a small edge in RZ work, targets, and carries so even though the receiving corps is suddenly thinner than we thought, Gordon is likely the better play this week against Baltimore and the 10th ranked DVOA against the run. 

Update – Gordon has been limited all week and is questionable, which would be awesome for Williams but the jury is out on if MG3 plays.

WR – A strength of this team has turned thin awfully quick with Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick the final two players of fantasy relevance. The stats for Patrick don’t exactly speak to his role in this offense that he’s going to have now and the good news is he’s not moving from the slot to outside. Patrick was already playing on the outside which helps. He’s already second in receptions on the team with Sutton leading and Patrick has three RZ targets as well. Corners Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey are on the other side and Smith has only been targeted three times in his one game. Humphrey hasn’t been playing the slot as much since they are missing players and has been allowing a 2.00 FPPT so far across 21 targets. I prefer Patrick and the savings, but both players should start seeing 6-8 targets at a minimum this week. 

TE – The Broncos didn’t have to keep their foot on the gas last week and I hope that’s the only reason Noah Fant was targeted just three times in that game. With the loss of Jeudy and Hamler, this passing game is a lot more narrow than it was just three weeks ago. Hamler and Jeudy accounted for 17 targets in their partial games and Fant was already running the 12th most routes among tight ends. His target rate of 23.9% is almost guaranteed to go up from here on out and his salary is reasonable. I still would be careful after what Baltimore did against Hockenson last week. They have faced Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Hock so far so the production they have given up is likely not indicative of where they end the year at. 

D/ST – Likewise, I think the Broncos are too expensive for the matchup. This is a good defense, sitting fifth in DVOA overall, they have five takeaways, and they have eight sacks. Jackson has been sacked eight times but he can also escape like basically no other player in the league. I do like the secondary can likely stifle his receivers but the price is just too high for my builds. 

Cash Plays – Patrick, Fant, Sutton 

GPP Plays – Teddy B, MG3, Williams 

Cash Core 4

Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Evan Engram, Odell Beckham

GPP Core 4

Travis Kelce, Robby Anderson, Darrell Henderson, Devonta Smith

Stacks

Chiefs/Eagles – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, CEH – Run Backs – Smith, Sanders, Reagor, Hurts

Cards/Rams – Stafford, Kupp, Woods, Jefferson, Higbee – Run Backs – Kirk, Green, Edmonds, Nuk, Kyler

Seahawks/49ers – Russ, DK, Lockett, Dissly – Run Backs – Aiyuk, Samuel, RB (need clarity there), Kittle

Panthers/Cowboys – Darnold, Anderson, Moore, Hubbard, Tremble – Run Backs – Lamb, Cooper, Zeke, Schultz, Dak

Browns/Vikings – OBJ, Hunt, Chubb – Run Backs – Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, Conklin, Cousins

Steelers/Packers – Rodgers, Adams, Jones – Run Backs – Diontae, Freiermuth

Punts to Make Things Work – This is just my personal pool of players that I’m considering and I try to avoid using two in the same lineup

RB – Michael Carter, Cordarrelle Patterson and maybe Javonte Williams (Jus if Mitchell is out and you’re crazy)

WR – Curtis Samuel, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Collin Johnson, D-Jax

TE – Tommy Tremble or Will Dissly

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport