NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3

Week 2 reminded us of the volatility of the NFL as our cash games carried the banner. I want to talk about that real quick because I saw a lot of bankroll spent on GPP and not enough in cash. Always make sure if you hit cash games, you walk away with some profit even if your GPP (like mine) gets rocked. It’s a vital step in building bankroll. Now, let’s get rolling for the 13 game NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3 and figure out where our paths are going for all formats this week!

Washington at Buffalo, O/U of 45.5 (Bills -7.5)

Washington

QB – Washington didn’t have any fears with Taylor Heinicke at the helm because they had him throw 46 times compared to just 17 carries for their running back tandem. He completed over 73% of those attempts but his receivers worked hard to make that happen. His accuracy was very questionable as far as putting the ball in the right spot to help his receivers. There is definitely talent around him and he’s inside the top 12 in yards coming from play-action pass attempts. The larger issue is the Bills have only allowed the third-fewest yards and have a 1:1 TD:INT ratio this year. The schedule has been super soft but they sit third in DVOA, meaning I’ll find another cheap option. 

RB – It’s never a good thing to overreact in fantasy, especially when you see J.D. McKissic significantly out-produce Antonio Gibson. The funny thing is Gibson has 33 carries in two games to just five for McKissic so remember that Gibson is sitting inside the top 10 when it comes to carries in the NFL. They are both tied with seven targets which is a 10.7% target share each and Gibson didn’t seem to be much of an option for Heinicke. The young quarterback seemed intent to continue to throw hospital balls to receivers than check down to Gibson and take some free yards. Buffalo has been stout against the run game so far this year, only allowing 108 rushing yards through two games so far. They’ve also yet to allow a touchdown on the ground nor through the air so it’s not the best spot ever. He’s going to tempt me since he’s under $6,000 on DK but some more involvement in the passing game would be nice. 

WR – For at least one game, the fears of quarterback play with Terry McLaurin fell by the wayside. He walked right through a tough matchup in corner James Bradberry and went nuts for an 11/107/ line. He has yet to miss a snap on the season, has a 33.2% air yards share, and a commanding 27.7% target share. Nobody else on the team is higher than 15.4%. Tre White and company await on the other side and he’s not a high priority, but matchup has little to nothing to do with it. It has far more to do with the players around him in salary. Scary Terry is only 34th in air yards share but he’s fourth in receptions, a fine tradeoff since he can make so much happen with the ball in his hands. 

Adam Humphries and Dyami Brown are both much thinner options even though they have surpassed a 65% snap share this season. They are tied with 10 targets apiece and Humphries displayed a better connection with Heinicke on Thursday, catching seven of his eight targets but just for 45 yards. He’s running the majority out of the slot and is the safety blanket in the offense. His aDOT of 2.8 yards compared to 12.6 for Brown perfectly illustrates their roles and Humphries is the safer player. Having said that, neither is the strongest option on this slate. 

TE – We don’t get better than 100% of the snaps, which is what Logan Thomas played on Thursday night. He saw seven targets which is great but did finish third in targets on the team behind Terry McLaurin and Adam Humphries. He also wasn’t targeted in the RZ out of the four attempts Heinicke had in this game. The Bills haven’t faced a great tight end yet but have only allowed 90 yards and no touchdowns. Thomas is fine and he runs plenty of routes, but I don’t view him as anything else than a cash option as the “last man in” style player. 

D/ST – They are wildly cheap against an offense that hasn’t started clicking quite yet, but their play on Thursday night was not encouraging. They are getting pressure over a quarter of the time with six sacks but the secondary is still gelling a little bit and they only have two turnovers forced. Buffalo has allowed a pressure rate of just over 30% so far this year which is sixth-most so if you’re looking for a bargain, Washington at least has some talent and can disrupt a passing game. 

Cash Plays – McLaurin 

GPP Plays – Gibson, Brown, D/ST 

Bills 

QB – It was another tough week for Josh Allen and his completion rate was barely 50%. I grant you the Dolphins corners do present a challenge but this is certainly not the start anyone expected for Allen this season. He is still chucking it deep, sitting fifth in air yards on the season and that’s a good sign. It means there is still a lot of room to grow as far as production and honestly, after seeing Danny Dimes hurt this Washington defense I could see the explosion happening this week. Allen can stand up to a pass rush and Washington is flirting with allowing 300 yards per game. They also simply could not figure out Jones running the football and he almost had 100 yards rushing! It was the same style of play over and over and I think Allen hits 50 yards rushing without much of an issue this week. When a couple of deep passes connect, he’s going to go nuts and we’re not getting him at $7,000 very often. 

RB – Zack Moss made his return to the lineup on Sunday and recorded 10 touches but his fantasy value was inflated by two touchdowns. He had three attempts in the RZ, cashing in two and 12 of his 16 DK points came just from that. I’m saying that to illustrate the difficulty of picking between him and Devin Singletary because Singletary lapped Moss in snap percentage at 66% to 27%. The RZ attempts for Singletary were equal this week at three and the targets were only three to two in favor of Singletary. This might just come down to who scores each week but for right now, Singletary is in the lead in this committee for only $200 more. I don’t think either is any type of need in either format. 

WR – Stefon Diggs has had pretty much the exact same start to his season that Allen has had. He’s been good, but far from great with just 16 points in each contest so far. If you’re spending up, you want a lot more than that but the metrics are all encouraging for Diggs. He leads in target share at 28%, air yards share at 35.3%, and he has the most RZ and EZ targets on the team. It sort of feels like a matter of time here. Diggs has been playing more than 80% on the outside which means he should face William Jackson for a good portion of the game. Jackson has had a strong start to the season, allowing just a 1.25 FPPT but Diggs is one of the best in the league. 

Emmanuel Sanders continues to have a massive aDOT at 17.4 yards but the connection just hasn’t been there quite yet. He only has six receptions on 14 targets thus far but this could be the game where he pops off. If Jackson is concentrating on Diggs, Sanders is going to get rookie Benjamin St. Juste who has allowed a 12.1 YPR on eight receptions so far. Cole Beasley is still a little cheap, but not my favorite play. We saw Washington get smoked out of the slot by Sterling Shepard and that’s where the weakness is in the secondary. Beasley is totally fine on PPR sites since he still has a 21.8% target share on the season. What’s most surprising is Kendall Fuller has played almost 60% in the slot so far for Washington. It hasn’t gone well as he’s allowed a catch rate over 71% and a passer rating of 94. 

TE – Dawson Knox is a touchdown or bust player with only seven targets so far this year and under 60 yards receiving. He’s only been the fifth option in the passing game thus far and is playing under 70% of the snaps so far. He does at least split out into the slot or out wide around 50% of his snaps but the play is thin even at the price. With some of the other options at the position, it’s hard to dip down that low. 

D/ST – For the second straight week, Buffalo gets a backup quarterback but this week you have to pay for them. They have forced three turnovers on the season and have the second-most sacks at eight to go with their 33% pressure rate. They are also top-four in quarterback hurries so this is a unit that can get after the quarterback. If Heinicke continues to throw the ball high over the middle, it’s going to end poorly so if they fit, Buffalo is a strong option as they are also ranked second in total DVOA. 

Cash Plays – Allen, Diggs, D/ST 

GPP Plays – Sanders, Singletary

Bears at Browns, O/U of 45.5 (Browns -7)

QB – It sure looks like Justin Fields will be in line to start this week and I’m willing to start him. Before he got hurt, Tyrod Taylor was ripping this Cleveland defense apart and Fields had Allen Robinson drop a touchdown last week which would have made his line look far better. Will Fields be perfect? Absolutely not but he’ll have a full week to prepare and he rushed for 31 yards in just part of a game. I’ll grant you that they faced Patrick Mahomes but they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and they have already given up five passing touchdowns and two on the ground. Fields has the rushing ability to make up for a turnover or two and he could approach 20 DK here. 

Update – Fields is officially the starter for Week 3 and will be my cash game quarterback

RB – It was a tough week statistically for David Montgomery last week with only 10.9 DK points but you have to love another 23 touches and trust that leads to better results. Now, it may not be the best matchup ever with Cleveland only giving up 117 rushing yards so far against running backs but you can easily argue that Monty will be the best one they have faced up to this point. We also simply do not get backs with this type of touch equity at this price and he has five RZ attempts as well. 

WR – There are really only two options for the Bears right now in Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, both of whom have played over 85% of the snaps. Mooney leads in air yards share at 37.5% but they are tied with 15 targets each to lead the team. What’s nice is Denzel Ward doesn’t typically shadow other receivers and A-Rob has kicked into the slot 36.6% of the time so far this year. The bad news for Robinson is he’s sitting 80th in yards run per route at 0.98. I wish he was running a more diverse set of routes, but Fields should be able to access the ceiling a little bit more than Dalton could. 

The same could be said for Mooney and he has the highest aDOT on the team. It’s only 8.6 yards but it’s still the team lead so that’s something. Mooney has been playing more outside than Robinson so far and that could leave him with a softer matchup in Greg Newsome. The Cleveland corner has played over 80% of the snaps and has only been targeted once, but I’d still rather face him than Ward. Mooney is really cheap and could fly under the radar. 

TE – I might be fine with Fields, but playing Cole Kmet isn’t all that appealing. He went from seven targets in Week 1 to just one last week even though he was still on the field a lot at 72% of the snaps. Kmet has run a route on 68% of the dropbacks for any Bears quarterback, which is encouraging and I don’t expect a one DK point as a result again. Even with the Browns facing Travis Kelce, they haven’t given up 100 yards to the position yet and only two touchdowns. If you play him, you’d have to hope that Fields leans on him in his first true start. 

D/ST – The Bears have been a strong unit to start the year, ranked ninth in total DVOA and they have a 21.3% pressure rate to go along with four turnovers forced. I think the issue here is Cleveland has not allowed just a 16.9% pressure rate and only four sacks on the season. They do have four turnovers but that is out of character and not a trend I think should continue. Chicago is at a reasonable price point but not my favorite option and they could be put on a short field or two if their rookie quarterback makes a mistake or two. 

Update – They could also be without Eddie Goldman and Tashaun Gipson so I’m even less interested.

Cash Plays – Montgomery, Robinson, Fields 

GPP Plays – Mooney, Kmet 

Browns 

QB – There is rarely a full slate where we’ll be playing Baker Mayfield in part because he is 28th in passing attempts. At some point, you need volume to get the job done or have strong rushing upside and neither is a calling card for Baker. It’s hard to quibble with 40/49 for over 530 yards considering his number one receiver hasn’t played a snap and another went down very early in Week 2. He’s a fine quarterback but he has all of one passing touchdown and he sits 30th in RZ passing attempts with just four. With Chicago sitting ninth in DVOA against the pass, there seems to be little reason to go after this spot. 

RB – I would imagine some of the lack of carries is due to a long 17 game season…but can we get some more work for Nick Chubb, please?? The man is ripping off six yards per carry across just 26 totes to this point. He’s already scored three times and while the YPC is far from everything, it already leads the NFL among players with more than 20 carries (Lamar Jackson is hot on the trail for that one). It can be difficult however to pay this salary for a player that has all of three targets on the year and has not had a role in this passing game dating back to last season if he’s getting 13 carries per game. As wildly efficient as Chubb has been so far, getting to 3x at $7,600 is highly difficult. Kareem Hunt is $2,000 cheaper but he’s not a player that I generally will chase when Chubb is still active. It’s not even the best matchup ever with the Bears giving up about 70 yards per game on the ground to backs. 

WR – It looks like Odell Beckham will be back this week and not a minute too soon. The Browns lost Jarvis Landry last week and the other receivers have combined for seven receptions so far. Last year saw Beckham play on the outside and that would lead him into Jaylon Johnson, who’s making a name for himself in a hurry. He’s been targeted 10 times so far and has only allowed three receptions for a 0.52 FPPT and a 34.5 passer rating allowed. Beckham is cheap, but I don’t think he’s needed and would just reserve him for GPP’s. 

We could maybe use Rashard Higgins who jumped up to 70% of the snaps after Landry left last week. The hope would be he slides into the slot now that Beckham is back and that would be a much softer matchup for him. There is no corner in the Bears secondary to fear outside of Johnson and we saw that last week. The Bears got hurt out of the slot by Tyler Boyd but we’re projecting that role. 

Update – OBJ is in, but be cautious. The team is openly saying they won’t have him just roll in and take every single snap. We thought he’d play two weeks ago so I’m not sold he’s that great of a play this week.

TE – All three of the Browns’ tight ends have played at least 41% of the snaps so far so while Austin Hooper has eight targets, so does David Njoku and Harrison Bryant is at six. Hooper and Njoku have two RZ targets each so there’s no real edge there and the only real edge might be Hooper has a 4.1 aDOT compared to Njoku’s 16.4 mark. Provided Beckham is back in action, I can’t say my interest is that high with a three-way split. I would likely just take Njoku since he saves a couple of bucks and has the same role in the RZ. 

D/ST – The Browns defense has been a disappointing unit so far, with only three sacks and a rank of 26th in total DVOA to this point. They have also only generated two turnovers and while Week 1 was easy to avoid, last week they seemed like a smash play and may have lucked out that Tyrod Taylor got hurt. The trust level isn’t exactly there, but Fields demonstrated he’s likely to make some brilliant plays and some not-so-brilliant plays as well. If Cleveland can’t at least be solid here, there’s a larger issue. 

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Chubb, Beckham, Baker, Hunt, Higgins

Colts at Titans, O/U of 48 (Titans -5.5)

Colts 

QB – We’ll need to update this section later in the week as we have no clarity on who’s playing. Carson Wentz is banged up again and may not be active. If Jacob Eason has to start, I’d want nothing to do with this offense. 

Update – Wentz practiced Wednesday, which makes me MUCH more comfortable with Taylor and more willing to run him back with a Tennessee receiver.

RB – One of these weeks, Jonathan Taylor is going to break through with multiple touchdowns and at least 80 yards rushing. Of his 32 carries so far this season, 12 have come in the RZ and that leads the NFL. Six of those 12 have come inside the five which to the surprise of nobody, leads the NFL. He’s under $7,000 and that really shouldn’t be the case. There is also a very strong case to be made he could be a pivot away from a very chalky back that sits at $6,500. The efficiency has not been there thus far with only 107 rushing yards on 32 attempts but Tennessee hasn’t totally shut down the ground game to this point. I’m not in love with him only getting 50% of the snaps so far this year and Nyheim Hines(I don’t want to talk about it) getting 41%. However, if JT is going to get that amount of work in the RZ and inside the five, the price justifies the risk. 

WR – It really seems like playing a Colts receiver is going to be a pain every week, as it might rotate with who plays well. Michael Pittman went full ham sandwich last week against the Rams secondary, which was super surprising. He has a 40.5% air yards share to go along with his team-leading 23.2% target share so it’s not a mystery of who the alpha is. It’s more if you can trust the quarterback to actually targets him because in Week 1, he only was targeted four times. Pittman likely would see Kristian Fulton who is allowing a 1.47 FPPT and an 11.7 YPT. 

Zach Pascal has been living on touchdowns with three already and he’s the slot receiver in this offense, running 74.8% of his snaps from the slot to lead the league. A full third of his receptions have gone for scores and he’s cashed in on all three of his EZ targets. If Wentz starts, I’d have some mild interest in GPP but that would be about it. 

TE – I suppose that if you were scraping the bottom, Jack Doyle makes some sense. He’s second in total targets and has a 14.7% target share, not exactly terrible even though the offense as a whole isn’t that great. He’s put significant distance between himself and Mo Alie-Cox who has only seen four targets to this point in the year. Tennessee’s stats against tight ends are irrelevant. They’ve given up all of three yards but they have faced literally nothing at the position. I’m not saying Doyle is special, but he’s easily the most involved tight end they have faced thus far. Don’t let the red “1st” dissuade you here. 

D/ST – The Colts are not a unit to use in this matchup in my eyes, as they only have a 16.7% pressure rate and have been sliced up by passing games so far. The pressure rate allowed by the Titans dropped down considerably in Week 2 and when they’re at their best, they don’t take sacks nor turn it over. Indy is also sitting just 26th in total DVOA, so there are not a lot of signs they’ll turn it around. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Taylor, Pittman, Pascal, Doyle 

Titans 

QB – I’ll let folks look at the stat line from Ryan Tannehill this past week and keep sleeping if they’d like. He had a clear touchdown taken away and one of his receivers had at least four drops in this game, yet still threw for 347 yards. The play-action pass was used more in this game as well at over 30% so that was great to see the Titans get back to what worked so well last season. Lo and behold, Tannehill climbed up to seventh in yards from play-action passing already, another great sign. It’s easier to just chalk Week 1 up to a fluke at that point. Indy is 29th in DVOA against the pass and has gotten scorched for 532 yards and six touchdowns already. The scary part about that is they’ve faced the second-fewest pass attempts at this point so if the volume comes up, the results could still get worse. 

RB – I’m running out of adjectives to describe the ManBeast know as Derrick Henry – 

That statistic defies logic. His salary is understandably high after smashing last week for over 50 DK points, and it will be tough to go for 3x…maybe. What has been fascinating so far this year is Henry has gotten receiving work with 10 targets and nine receptions. I’ll be the first to tell you that I dismissed the idea of Henry getting targets out of hand. He’s never had a track record of it, the team traded for Julio Jones, etc… but the facts remain he’s been much more involved. If he’s even getting trust 2-3 receptions per game that is honestly a big help. What is at least moderately interesting (to me, anyway) is to look at the other season when Todd Downing was an OC for the Raiders. 

It was 2017 so we’re talking four years now but an offense that had Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper threw to the running back 112 times out of 552 passing attempts. Granted, 81 of those targets went to DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard who have some passing chops. Marshawn Lynch saw 31 as well and considering Henry is on the field for over 70% of the snaps, he could really catch 35 passes or so. We’re not talking an apples-to-apples comparison but it’s possible that many in the industry (raises hand) underestimated Henry’s potential role in the passing game. 

WR – I’m not sure who Julio Jones made angry in another life that has made him never score a touchdown, but the man is cursed. Past his usual touchdown hijinks, Julio was back in full force Sunday, easily eclipsing 100 yards. He is still the second receiver in the offense so far since he trails A.J. Brown in targets and air yards. Julio does lead in receptions and yards so far but Brown holds the edge for EZ targets as well. They can be tough to separate since they’re at the same price point. Julio has played almost exclusively on the outside and would face Xavier Rhodes if he’s back in action. Brown would face off against T.J. Carrie for the most part and Carrie has allowed 21.8 YPR, a passer rating of 126, and a catch rate of 71%. I give the lean to Brown because he’s going to want to make up for the multiple drops he had last week and he should never, ever be this cheap.

TE – I don’t believe there is a high end of relevance for Tennessee. Anthony Firkser missed the last game and nobody had more than three targets. MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swain both played over 62% of the snaps and they combined for five receptions and a total of 53 yards. If Firkser got all of the production, he could be somewhat interesting at $3,100 but with how many two tight end set they used, it wouldn’t be all Firkser. That’s not even mentioning the receiver corps, which has a 54% target share, and Henry’s 13.5% share as well. 

Update – Firkser is out but I still have no interest.

D/ST – Let’s see who starts at quarterback and circle back. Tennessee has managed to record five sacks but only has a 14.1% pressure rate, which is among the six lowest in football. They are also 30th in DVOA and if Wentz starts, I’ll pass. If not, we could be in business at $2,400 in a big way. 

Cash Plays – Henry, Tannehill, Brown, Julio

GPP Plays – D/ST (if Wentz sits)

Falcons at Giants, O/U of 47.5 (Giants -3)

Falcons 

QB – Maybe Matt Ryan isn’t quite dead yet. He threw three interceptions but still scored over 22 DK points and that would be a significant bargain at this salary. He’s eighth in attempts this season and even against the Giants, I don’t think the Falcons blow them out so we should expect another heavy dose of Ryan. The veteran also sits eighth in RZ attempts and New York is 23rd in DVOA with the eighth-most passing yards allowed. Ryan has some weapons that can help goose him to a solid fantasy day this week and the price is certainly right to roll the dice in some GPP lineups. 

RB – We could have a full-time split between Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson but that could be more results-based. Davis still has played almost 70% of the snaps, has a 24-14 lead in rush attempts, and the lead in targets by one. It is interesting to note that Patterson has the lone carry inside the five-yard line and that Patterson has been more effective in the running game with 65 rush yards to 87 for Davis. Patterson has also lapped Davis in receiving yards at 58 to 25 so even though Davis is leading in playing time, Patterson has been extremely effective in his role thus far. New York has allowed the fifth-most yards on the ground and the seventh-most through the air. Even though Patterson isn’t playing a ton of snaps, he seems locked in for at least 10 touches, and at this salary….you could do worse. 

WR – Calvin Ridley hasn’t exactly had a massive start to the season but he still has a 50.6% share of the air yards and he leads in targets and EZ looks. He’s also second in routes run and 11th in unrealized air yards so a lot of his metrics would point to Ridley not being much different than he was last season, past the results. Ridley gets James Bradberry but we saw last week that while Bradberry is a quality corner, he’s not someone we have to fear. It’s only two games but he’s allowed a 2.32 FPPT and a passer rating of 138. It likely isn’t going to hurt Ridley that Russell Gage is going to miss this game with an ankle injury and he was playing about 60% of the snaps with nine targets through two weeks. Olamide Zaccheaus should replace Gage on the field, but the role has not been fantasy-relevant so far. 

TE – There is going to be a game where Kyle Pitts explodes because he saw 55% of his snaps either in the slot or out wide, he said he read coverages better in his second game, and he led the Falcons in targets last week. His air yards share is over 25.8% and he co-leads the team with two RZ targets. The utilization is exactly what we were hoping for when taking Pitts early in drafts and he’s under $5,000 again. The Giants have surrendered the sixth-most yards and two touchdowns against tight ends so far and have faced Logan Thomas and Noah Fant so far this year. Pitts is on his way to be the 1A in this offense and it’s a spot where we want to be ahead of the breakout. 

D/ST – You know your defense isn’t good when I don’t want to attack the Giants offense. Atlanta is sitting in the bottom 10 in pressure rate, has four sacks, 29th in total DVOA, and has forced exactly one turnover. New York has only turned it over once so far and is only allowing a 23.2% pressure rate. 

Cash Plays –Pitts, Ridley, Ryan 

GPP Plays – Patterson 

Giants 

QB – I have to give Daniel Jones some credit for producing for fantasy in two tougher spots. He’s exceeded 22 DK points in each game and while the rushing production isn’t likely to keep up this high, he’s always had some ability with his legs. I think it’s impressive that he only has one turnover on the season and if that aspect of his game gets under control, he could be more trustworthy heading forward. Maybe it’s not fair to say this right after facing Tom Brady, but the Falcons defense leads the league in touchdown passes allowed at eight and is one of seven teams without an interception so far this year. Atlanta is also 27th in DVOA and the passing game could be interesting since this next player will be extremely popular. 

RB – We talked about Jonathan Taylor being a pivot from a chalky player and I’ll be hard-pressed to believe that a $6,500 Saquon Barkley will not be chalk this week. He’ll now have a long week of recovery after two games in four days and we saw some encouraging signs in Week 2. He touched the ball 15 times and he played 84% of the snaps after sitting under 50% in Week 1. Barkley handled the vast majority of running back touches on top of that, which is great to see. Barkley hasn’t had a big game yet but this salary is just absurd in honesty on either site. It will help that Atlanta is already up to 13 receptions allowed to backs, tied for the fifth-most. If Barkley was fully healthy coming into the year, he’d never drop below around $8,000. Take advantage. 

WR – This receiver room is crowded but I’m only looking at one player for the most part. I think Sterling Shepard takes a small step backward with the return of their tight end as those targets will start to get split up. At the highest price point, I’d rather fade Shepard and go with Kenny Golladay. He’s been on the outside almost exclusively and he’s already 14th in air yards among receivers. That would put him mostly on A.J. Terrell, who has played extremely well so far with no receptions allowed on four targets so far. 

Update – Terrell is out for this game, and that really hampers the Falcons secondary. I’m far more interested in players like Slayton or Shepard if Golladay sits out (he remains very questionable). Slayton at $4,600 would ooze upside as he should have had two long touchdowns last week had he not dropped an easy one.

It can be a tough balance to strike because last year, Terrell had a really tough rookie season but he’s a high draft pick and could be getting better in a hurry. Still, Golladay was already yelling on the sidelines about the offense. The squeaky wheel tends to get the grease and this could be the first big game for Golladay in a Giants uniform. On paper, Darius Slayton has the better matchup against Fabian Moreau who has allowed a 77.7 completion rate, a 2.8 FPPT, ad two touchdowns. Slayton has been involved more than you would think with 13 total targets but the retiring tight end looms, as does Barkley being more involved in the offense. 

TE – It looks like Evan Engram will be back in action for this game and if he’s full go, he would be interesting. The price is right and Jones has shown he likes the intermediate area of the field. My guess would be Shepard sees the hit in target share as he and Engram would be the same style of a target. Atlanta has already allowed three touchdowns against tight ends and they’ve faced some good ones. The thing with Engram is at this salary, he doesn’t need to score. Let’s see how the week progresses but he had a 21% target share in 2020. I’m sure Golladay would bite into that but not enough to overlook $3,600. 

D/ST – The Giants are way too expensive for my blood for a team that only has three sacks and a pressure rate under 20%. They also sit in the bottom eight in total DVOA and I have no interest in this salary. 

Cash Plays – Barkley (Shepard would be here if Golladay is out)

GPP Plays – Slayton, Engram, Jones, Shepard 

Chargers at Chiefs, O/U of 55 (Chiefs -6.5)

Chargers

QB – Justin Herbert had to be one of the unluckiest quarterbacks on the week last week. He threw a pick in the EZ which was his own fault but he had two separate touchdowns come off the board due to penalties. hat would have left him flirting with 30 DK points instead of the 19.7 he ended at but regardless of that fact, 2021 has been excellent to start for Herbert. He’s averaging over 300 yards per game through the air and is fourth in passing yards on the third-most attempts. Herbert also sits eighth in air yards and sixth in yards from play-action passing on the most attempts. We love seeing offenses utilize play-action because it just opens everything up for the quarterback and makes their job easier. On top of all that, he’s second in RZ attempts which carry serious touchdown equity. The Chiefs are 25th in DVOA and are going to have a very difficult time containing this passing game. It’s one of the premier shootouts of the week and we should be very interested in stacking as much as we can. 

RB – If the trends from the first couple of weeks hold up, Austin Ekeler is in an amazing spot at a very affordable salary. At his best, he’s a cheaper version of Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in that he’ll have 8-12 rush attempts and then a boatload of receptions, just like Sunday. While I do think the improvements of the offensive line and usage of Mike Williams (more on that in a second) change the complexion of the offense, it was excellent to see Ekeler get nine targets and nine receptions last week. When we’re playing on a PPR scoring site like DK, I want my backs to get a ton of targets even at the expense of rushing attempts. It was against Baltimore, but Kansas City’s defense looked horrid against the run on Sunday night. Ekeler is one of the safest bets for 15+ touches on the board and is a great run-back option in Chiefs’ stacks due to his involvement in the passing game. 

WR – We heard a lot of noise in the offseason that Mike Williams would play a new role in the Joe Lombardi offense and that has been 1,000% true so far this season. He actually leads the team in targets by one but his aDOT has come down to 9.3 and he’s just so much more involved. Gone are the days where you hoped he caught a long ball or two if you played him and he’s deserving of his salary here. Williams should see plenty of Charvarius Ward and Williams has three inches and 20 pounds on the Chiefs corner. Ward has only been targeted five times but he’s allowed a touchdown already.

Update – Ward is questionable but hasn’t practiced all week, and Frank Clark is doubtful. This LA offense couldn’t ask for much of a better spot.

Keenan Allen still rotates into the sot 47.6% of the time and his target rate is more than secure with 21 already. Allen is in the top 10 in air yards and top 20 in yards run per route, a great combo when you’re getting the target volume that he does. L’Jarius Sneed would likely see the most of Allen and Sneed played well last year, but Allen moves around so much that he’s pretty much matchup proof. I’d let the popularity decide here who we should play. f Allen draws the most, we can be underweight on him and overweight on Williams. 

TE – As it stands, Jared Cook is third in target share in the Chargers offense but Ekeler is hot on his heels. He’s also under 60% of the snaps which doesn’t exactly help and neither does Williams emerging in his new role. His most realistic appeal is a cheap piece of a shootout game that had a touchdown taken away last week and he could be a way to get into this game at a less popular route. 

D/ST – We do not play defenses against Kansas City in Kansas City. 

Update – Lineman Joey Bosa hasn’t practiced all week and corner Chris Harris is already out. This game should have some serious fireworks. YOU NEED EXPOSURE to this game in all formats, realistically.

Cash Plays – Herbert, Allen, Ekeler, Williams 

GPP Plays – Cook 

Chiefs 

QB – It’s a rare player that can go for 343/3/1 on a 77% completion rate and you can safely say they didn’t play their best game. The interception from Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night helped doom the Chiefs and even though he made a couple of signature throws it was weird to see his receivers do a lot of the work as well. Baltimore really bottled up Mahomes and the deep ball ability, which at least has the possibility of happening again. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards on the season and that’s even with playing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. However, LAC ranks 18th in DVOA so by no means am I telling you to not play Mahomes. He’s fourth in passing yards and has six touchdown passes already. I will say if Herbert comes in at half the rostership, it could be an interesting pivot in this game. 

RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire is priced next to Devin Singletary…and I don’t have an overwhelming need to go after him this week. He’s getting the snaps and the usage but he’s just not turning it into much of anything. CEH has almost 85% of the team’s rushing attempts by a running back and has 89 total rushing yards for a meager 3.3 YPC. There was hope that with the departure of Sammy Watkins, he could be a bigger part of the passing game but he has exactly three targets this year. That’s only two more than a devastating fumble that helped cost them the game in Baltimore and this could go one of two ways. I could see the general lack of efficiency and the fumble costing him playing time or I could see Andy Reid feeding him until he scores. If he’s very unpopular in comparison to the passing game, maybe we could pivot. Past that, I can’t say I’m in love here. 

WR – There are only two receivers with a target share over 10% right now and it’s Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, and Hardman only has eight receptions and 74 yards through two games. I have a feeling that Hill won’t see another game of just four targets anytime soon because the Chiefs offense just can’t function like that. Mahomes and the crew pulled out points in Baltimore, but make no mistake – this offense is Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. That’s it, that’s the list. Reek still has a target share of over 30% and his air yards share is over 40% as well, the 12th highest in the league. He’s seventh in yards per route run at 3.46 yards and this could be the bounce-back game. The Chargers have strong corners in Michael Davis, Chris Harris, and rookie Asante Samuel but none of those three run a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. I will continue to not be that interested in Hardman or anyone else in the corps. 

TE – It truly doesn’t seem like Travis Kelce is priced correctly with his upside and floor combo. He rarely leaves the field and has a 23.8% target share on the season with just a 14.3% air yards share. The air yards are low but he’s working the closest to the line of scrimmage for Mahomes, raising the reception floor. The Chargers have been good against the tight end but Kelce breaks all matchups and I would have no fears even with safety Derwin James back there. Kelce and Hill would be a rare combo of double run back if we go with Herbert/Williams or Allen, as an example.

D/ST – The Chiefs defense frankly looks terrible. They are 31st in DVOA all around and have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in football. Considering Herbert isn’t pressured more than 19% of the time, I can’t see the reason to go here. I doubt Herbert makes the same mistakes Lamar Jackson did last week. 

Cash Plays – Mahomes, Kelce, Hill

GPP Plays – CEH 

Bengals at Steelers, O/U of 43.5 (Steelers -3)

Bengals 

QB – I may not be in love with the pace the Bengals are playing at right now (27th in the NFL, which isn’t the most sensical approach with their personnel in my eyes), but I like Joe Burrow a little bit here. The Steelers’ defense is beaten up in a big way, and injuries to key players could really change this game. Pittsburgh is down to 19th in DVOA and that’s after playing so well against Buffalo in Week 1. Only four teams have allowed more passing yards than the Steelers right now and Coach Zac Taylor has to realize that’s the route to beat them and let Burrow throw more than the 27 and 30 attempts he’s had so far. I get that he’s coming off a major injury but the Bengals offense won’t hit a ceiling with Burrow sitting 22nd in passing attempts. This could be the spot where the volume rises and Burrow (and his receivers) are plenty cheap this week. 

RB – I actually think the Steelers lose this game at this juncture but I’m not convinced it would be on the back of Joe Mixon. He did get another 21 touches this past week and the Bengals are committed to him as their three-down workhorse, but the Steelers defense has still smothered the run game early in the season. They have yet to allow a score and have only surrendered 171 total scrimmage yards across two games. They did suffer plenty of injuries on the defensive side, including lineman Tyson Alualu and linebacker T.J. Watt. However, Watt’s absence will hurt the pass rush more than anything else and they have shown vulnerability through the air. I’ll take Cincinnati’s passing game in this one. 

WR – Based on alignments so far, Ja’Marr Chase would avoid a lot of Joe Haden (if he’s even active) and that’s a nice bonus for Chase. He’s leading the team in air yard share by a lot at 44.3% and is in the top 20 in yards run per route at 2.63. Sutton has allowed a 1.8 FPT, 118 passer rating, and a completion rate of 78.5%. That would mean Tee Higgins would face Haden if he plays but Higgins has one thing the other two receivers don’t so far – RZ and EZ targets, three and two respectively. He works the intermediate part of the field with a 9.2 aDOT and if the Steelers have issues getting to the passer, these receivers should have their way. That includes Tyler Boyd who is in the top-five in slot rate so far. Let’s see how the injury report shakes out for Pittsburgh but I’m really liking the cheap Bengals passing game cogs and would rank them right as their salary already does. 

Update – Higgins is not expected to play, and that is a major bump to Chase and Boyd. Taking a target leader away from an offense is a huge deal, and I’ll be playing Boyd in cash on GPP. I would also rank Chase slightly higher than Marquise Brown, who we’ll get to later.

TE – C.J. Uzomah is not be used in the offense as he’s played 73% of the snaps and has just four targets on the season. 

D/ST – This is potentially the salary saver at the position. The Steelers’ offensive line has allowed a 31.2% pressure rate and the Raiders hit the quarterback 10 times last week. The Bengals have six sacks already and the fourth-highest blitz rate in football. That could cause some serious issues for Pittsburgh and their offense looks painful at the moment. Cincinnati is surprisingly seventh in overall DVOA and they likely shouldn’t be this cheap. 

Cash Plays – Boyd, Chase, Burrow, D/ST

GPP Plays – Mixon

Steelers 

QB – We’re only two weeks in but it’s time to sound the alarm on Ben Roethlisberger and the majority of the Steelers offense. Big Ben looks 100% washed up and he just doesn’t have the physical tools needed to be an NFL quarterback consistently. I was ready to accept that last year was partly a product of intense rehab on the elbow but he didn’t have that this season and he won’t throw to the middle of the field at all over 10 yards. 

Most of the routes toward the boundary are jump balls to Chase Claypool and you can see it’s just not really there for Big Ben. He’s yet to exceed 15 DK points and there are at least seven options under $6,000 that I would rather play than Roethlisberger as he’s dealing with a pectoral injury on top of everything else. 

RB – This one hurts but I think we take our solid Najee Harris week from last week and feel lucky. I’m just not sure how much we can trust him in this dysfunctional offense. Not only does the quarterback look absolutely cooked, but the offensive line also isn’t doing him many favors. He’s in the 40’s among running backs in yards before contact, which is not great. It was encouraging to see him get five targets last week and that should be able to keep him somewhat afloat at this salary, but there are a lot of concerns around him. Cincinnati has allowed 16 receptions to running backs, already tied for the fourth-most so I don’t want to take Najee totally out of play. I just don’t believe he’s a strong cash play like I did last week. 

WR – The plays from this portion of the offense hinge on a lot of injury clarity right now. Diontae Johnson suffered a knee injury on the last play that he was on the field for no real reason and could miss this week. The quarterback could be out. If Johnson and Ben are in, Diontae is still a strong PPR option. He has a 30.6% target share, which really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Chase Claypool continues to be used as a “deep threat”, better known as Ben will just lob a frozen turkey 20 yards down the boundary and hope Claypool makes a play (and he hasn’t done it often thus far). That leaves JuJu Smith-Schuster as the short field target with a 4.5 aDOT and a target share of just 20.8%. That’s a fairly low-value role and in honesty, Adam Humphries is playing almost the same exact role for $3,700 compared to $6,000 for JuJu. I’m not interested unless Johnson doesn’t play. 

Update – Diontae is indeed out, and JuJu should see at least 10 targets. I’ll be totally honest that I don’t particularly care for him, so I have bias. I’m not paying $6,000 for 8/55/0 myself. There are far too many other receivers with more tangible upside. Ben is killing this offense, and that pains me to say it. James Washington could enter the discussion, but I’m not sure how we trust Ben to get him the ball.

TE – If you play anyone, it’s Pat Freiermuth ahead of Eric Ebron. The rookie has played a few more snaps at 54.4% but the target share just isn’t there yet. Freiermuth only has five targets on the season and Ebron is at four, both under 7%. Perhaps if Johnson is out, we can circle back. 

D/ST – Typically against the Bengals, I’d be in. Burrow is under pressure over 30% of the time but Pittsburgh is only blitzing 9.5% of the time and is ranked 14th in total DVOA, well below their standards. Missing multiple key pieces isn’t going to help them either. There is no chance I spend on them this week, as I would gladly play Buffalo. 

Update – Haden is ready to go, but rotational pass rusher Alex Highsmith is out and Watt is highly questionable.

Cash Plays – JuJu

GPP Plays – Harris, Claypool, D/ST 

Ravens at Lions, O/U of 49.5 (Ravens -9)

Ravens 

QB – I would likely just find $500 and play the highest salaried quarterback on the slate but Lamar Jackson is more than appealing as well. There’s even an opportunity to stack him, which is something we haven’t said very often since so much of Jackson’s appeal is his rushing numbers. He recovered from one hideous interception on Sunday night to post 37 DK points with over 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Lions are now on a short week and have some injuries of their own in the secondary, missing at least Jeff Okudah. We should pay no attention to the fact they’ve given up seven rushing yards against quarterbacks because they have played statues so far. Jackson is an elite option on the slate as they rank 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run. Good luck stopping Jackson in this spot. 

RB – At least as it stands, Ty’Son Williams is still the lead back after having another week of double-digit carries and 48.6% of the snaps. If he just holds onto the ball, he has a touchdown last week to go with 13 carries, 77 yards on the ground, and two more targets (he caught both). The fact that he’s still under $6,000 makes him appealing since we could still be in line for 15 touches against a porous run defense and Williams is a cog in the NFL’s leading rushing attack. Philadelphia is second in rushing yards per game at 162 while Baltimore is at 220. Even with Jackson and Latavius Murray to compete with for carries, that’s an awful lot to go around. If Williams had scored, he’d be coming into this game averaging over 17 DK points through the first two contests. I’d rather pay the extra $500 even though Murray could certainly score as well with two touchdowns already on just 19 carries. Murray seems far more unstable and reliant on touchdowns. 

WR – I get the feeling that the second I want to buy into Marquise Brown that he could let me down, but he’s really coming on strong and playing the way he has been expected to since he was drafted. Over his last 10 games dating back to last year, he’s not dropped under 12.5 DK and he has six over 15.2 DK with three over 20. Listen, he’s not going to be a volume monster but his speed and playmaking with the ball make up for that. He has an air yards share of 39.3% and the target share is just under 30%. In addition, he’s been the man in the RZ with three targets there and three EZ targets as well. Sammy Watkins mirrors the air yards and target share but Hollywood has been the better player. Detroit is also already down two corners so even though I don’t expect 10+ targets, Hollywood should be able to break a big play or two here. 

TE – I don’t think many expected Mark Andrews to be third in targets through two weeks but that’s where the offense is. What has really hurt him so far this year is he has zero RZ and EZ targets. If he’s not going to be a priority in that portion of the field, it will be tough for him to have a good year and be worth playing most weeks. Now, it’s only been two weeks so you don’t want to totally overreact but Brown is playing like an alpha in a passing game right now. Baltimore is tied for the fourth-fewest pass attempts on the season and if Andrews is third in that attack with limited touchdown equity, it’s a disaster. 

D/ST – I don’t think we’ve seen Baltimore sitting in the bottom-three in pressure rate very often, but they are only at 11.8% so far this year. They’ve dialed back their blitz rate with the injuries they’ve had to deal with but if they can’t get home, it’s tough to do much else. They sit 23rd in total DVOA and they’re a fine option given the opponent, but not anything I’m jamming into the lineup. 

Cash Plays – Lamar, Brown, Williams

GPP Plays – Andrews, Watkins, Murray, D/ST 

Lions 

QB – Baltimore has given up the most passing yards in football but I’m more than nervous to play Jared Goff. When the protection is good and he can just distribute the ball, Goff can play well but when he’s getting pressured and off his spot, things tend to crumble for him in a hurry. Goff is 11th in air yards and I’ll bet that he makes a couple of big-time throws to beat the blitz for a big play or two. The Lions aren’t using play-action with just six attempts for Goff, which doesn’t make much sense considering their running backs. Goff has been much better for fantasy than some realized but I believe that hits a bump in the road this week, although the Ravens’ poor pressure rate has to be noted here. 

RB – This flies in the face of what we talked about with the Ravens, but I don’t love paying this salary for D’Andre Swift in what looks like a full-blown timeshare. Yes, Williams is in the exact same boat as Baltimore but he’s in the leading rushing attack in the NFL. Swift is not and he has split snaps with Jamaal Williams right about at 65% to 35% so far. I thought maybe Swift was being babied on Monday due to injury, but he played the garbage time series down by 18 with under three minutes to go. The Lions are just splitting touches in a big way right now. 

Even less encouraging for Swift is Williams has been seeing just as many touches. They both crushed in Week 1 but we saw what happened on Monday night and that was they just cannibalized each other. Even through injuries, Baltimore has been strong against the run with only 89 rushing yards allowed. They have been susceptible through the air so far with 12/112 but it would boil down to this – would I rather play Ty’Son in a smash spot with the chance at a touchdown or Swift and hope he catches a bunch of passes? For me, I’ll side with Ty’Son. I do have to add that Coach Dan Quinn went out of his way to say they need to have more passing plays for Swift, which is great to hear. I still side with Ty’Son but it’s an awful lot closer now. 

WR – I still lean heavily toward not playing any receiver, but if Tyrell Williams is out again, we can take a look at Quintez Cephus. He does have some regression red flags since he’s only playing 55.7% of the snaps and only has a 15.4% target share. However, he’s still under $4,000 and has found the EZ twice while flashing big-play ability here and there. Marlon Humphrey is not playing as much slot corner since the Ravens have had so many injuries and would see some of Cephus. Humphrey has had an adjustment period with a 1.9 FPPT and 149 yards allowed, which is out of character a little bit. If Williams is in, that changes some things. 

TE – One of the reasons Andrews has little interest for me is T.J. Hockenson is on the other side for $200 more. He’s second among tight ends in targets, co-leads in EZ targets, leads in receptions, and is the TE3 in PPR scoring. If you aren’t spending up on Kelce, Hock could be the next best option and I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up being a chalky cash tight end. Goff loves him and he’s a focal point in the passing game with some weaker receivers around him. The salary is a bargain. 

D/ST – Nope. 

Cash Plays – Hockenson

GPP Plays – Swift, Cephus, Goff, Williams 

Saints at Patriots, O/U of 42.5 (Patriots -2.5)

Saints 

QB – Jameis Winston is one of the easiest fades of the week in my eyes, not that it’s a hot take. “Bad Jameis” was in full effect in Week two with a 50% completion rate and two picks and was a stark reminder of how little New Orleans has on offense. I don’t expect Jameis to throw four picks like Zach Wilson did last week, but we know that Bill Belichick’s defenses force mistakes. With no realistic receiving threats, the New England game plan will almost certainly be to load up on Kamara and let Jameis make a bonehead throw or two. 

RB – So…that was quite the terrible game for Alvin Kamara on Sunday. He only managed to gain 30 total yards and this is not the spot that screams “get right”. New England has allowed 202 rushing yards but it does not appear that the Saints offense has much to offer outside of Kamara. The receiving corps is not giving them any production and past touchdowns for their tight ends in Week 1, this offense has not produced very much. Kamara has always been a focal point for opposing teams but this is a different level of the Saints not have a legitimate other threat in the offense. Bill Belichick always has a history of taking away the number one option and forcing you to take another route to win. New Orleans is not set up for that and even if they were, it leaves me very low on Kamara. 

WR – We’re just going to keep this short and say that no Saints receiver has given us any reason to play them so far. Marquez Callaway has been targeted all of six times so far and Deonte Harris is playing 45% of the snaps, which is the second-most among receivers on the team. Even at cheaper salaries, there’s no meat on the bone and Jameis can’t be trusted to get them the ball. 

TE – Aside from Juwan Johnson catching two touchdowns in Week 1, the Saints’ tight ends have done virtually nothing this season. Adam Trautman saw a 30% target share in Week 1 and then wasn’t targeted in Week 2. With the expectation of the Saints and Winston scuffling in New England, I’m not putting them in my player pool. 

D/ST – I’ll be happier if they get corner Marshon Lattimore back in action, but the Saints are a fine option. The Patriots’ offense has not been anything to be scared of at this point and New Orleans is a top-five defense in total DVOA. They also sit in the top 10 in pressure rate and have four turnovers forced already. 

Update – Lattimore and fellow defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson are in for this game.

Cash Plays – D/ST 

GPP Plays – Kamara 

Patriots 

QB – Likewise, an easy pass on Mac Jones on this side of the game. He’s only thrown one touchdown and this game is about tied for the lowest O/U of the week, not something we want a heavy piece of. Jones is barely averaging 230 passing yards on the season so far and even though New Orleans scuffled a little bit, they were missing two corners and the Carolina offense has far more skill position players that can actually do damage. Even at $5,100, we don’t need to go here. Just play Field and at least get some rushing upside for a safer floor. New Orleans is still a top 12 unit against the pass as far as DVOA goes on top of everything else. 

RB – We’re back to the normal Patriots backfield where Damien Harris and James White are splitting snaps and both have very distinct roles. Harris is the hammer back with 39 carries on the season and he’s eighth in rushing yards with a touchdown. He’s also being targeted at just a 6% target share while White is second on the team in targets at 13, two fewer than the team lead. White continues to be viable on PPR sites like DK and when we look at this matchup, he might have the better chance at a fantasy-relevant day. The Saints defense is tied for the sixth-most rushing attempts faced so far but have only given up the eighth-fewest yards. They sit at 124 yards given up on the ground and it’s been 85 yards through the air (duly noted that they faced CMC last week). I don’t need for either, but I can see White continuing to be a security blanket for Jones. 

WR – Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor continue to be fringe candidates and not much more. Meyers leads in targets and air yards but both of these players are under 95 yards receiving through two games. If the Saints are missing corners again, I’ll double back and reevaluate. If Lattimore and others are back, they’re an easy pass in this low total game. We have much better options elsewhere. 

TE – Hunter Henry is playing more of the snaps at 75% to 63% but Jonnu Smith has a small lead in targets at 10-7. That doesn’t mean I’m excited to play either of them since Henry is under a 10% target share and Smith has an aDOT of 2.5 yards. The presence of White really sucks a lot of potential out of the tight ends and until Jones is more reliable, it’s tough to go here. 

D/ST – I’d be tempted to break my rule of not paying so much for defense because the Patriots and Belichick should have a field day here. This isn’t a dangerous offense and they’re coming into New England against a defense ranked third in total DVOA, has five turnovers forced, and the sixth-highest pressure rate despite a bottom-eight blitz rate. Still, $4,100 is an awful lot, especially when powerful offenses are on a slate. 

Cash Plays – White 

GPP Plays – D/ST

Cardinals at Jaguars, O/U of 51.5 (Cardinals -7)

Cardinals 

QB – Kyler Murray is one of the most absurd football players in the league right now and I mean that in the best way possible – 

There is simply no defense against that and Murray is one of the safest players in all of fantasy with a ceiling that is nearly unrivaled. He has nine total touchdowns and 51 rushing yards and that second part might be the most encouraging thing to me – he’s been scoring over 34 points a game without big games on the ground. Imagine what’s going to happen when he has 100 rushing yards on top of everything else. Only one other quarterback has more passing yards and Jacksonville is 28th in DVOA. Even if the Cardinals blow them out of the water, it’s almost sure to be because Kyler is going full nuclear and he’s got a great chance to score the most points on the entire slate. 

RB – If we’re only looking at rushing and receiving yards, there is really no discussion between Chase Edmonds and James Conner. Not only has Edmonds out-gained him on the ground by 30 yards, but Conner also has yet to be targeted in the passing game and Edmonds has added 72 receiving yards for over 180 scrimmage yards so far this year with nine receptions. $5,700 is getting up there for Edmonds but he certainly should not be only $700 more than Conner. The difficulty with Edmonds is you almost have to bank on a longer touchdown since he contends with Murray and Conner in the RZ. Arizona has run the ball nine times in the RZ so far and Edmonds has two attempts and none inside the five. He’s also seen just one RZ target so while he’s clearly the back to play, the ceiling is likely only attainable with a splash play touchdown. Jacksonville could be the team to give that to him with almost 290 scrimmage yards allowed and three scores already. 

WR – With Jacksonville giving up almost 300 passing yards per game, there is a lot of yards to go around and I’m not sure playing Rondale Moore is really even chasing his big day at this point. His snaps have increased and he’s leading the team in targets even with DeAndre Hopkins still there and on just a total of 36.9% of the snaps. That has to be very notable and Moore is only $5,000. He should clear 50% of the snaps in this game and Kyler very obviously has strong chemistry with him. He leads the team in yards with just a 4.1 aDOT and even if you took the long touchdown away (you shouldn’t), he would still be third in yardage. Moore sticks in the slot almost 71% of the snaps and this passing game should do whatever it wants. 

Update – Hopkins didn’t practice all week but there’s been no indication he’ll actually sit. This game is a 1 PM start so we’ll know in plenty of time.

TE – Maybe I turn out to be dead wrong, but I can’t get behind Maxx Williams coming anywhere close to repeating last week. Seven of his eight targets on the season came last week and even though he’s playing 76.9% of the snaps, the Cardinals offense has just never used the tight end under Kliff Kingsbury. Williams literally did not have a reception in the week before and outside of “it’s Jacksonville”, I’m not all that excited about a player who could be a total zero here. 

D/ST – Somehow, the Jaguars have only given up two sacks but they have still turned the ball over five times already and this is a solid spot for Arizona. They should be up early and by a lot, allowing their defense to pin their ears back to build on their seven sacks. They could give up plenty of points but you’re hoping for 2-3 splash plays along the way. 

Cash Plays – Kyler, Moore, Hopkins

GPP Plays – Edmonds, D/ST 

Jaguars 

QB – Trevor Lawerence is going to be a very good quarterback at the NFL level but I’m really struggling to play him at this juncture. The offense isn’t exactly helping him out (we’ll get to that) and Arizona is eighth in DVOA. I am a little surprised to see his pressure rate is only at 18.2% because I honestly expected it to be higher. The volume is there with the seventh-most pass attempts but he’s 19th in completions and the learning curve has been steep so far with five interceptions. You could hang your hat on him leading the league in air yards but the risk is there. The Cards have only allowed the eighth-fewest yards and only four touchdown passes, so I believe we can do better even though Lawerence should face a negative game script as a 7.5 point underdog. 

RB – Week 2 was far more encouraging for James Robinson at least as far as usage because he played 73% of the snaps and out-carried Carlos Hyde 11-2. He’s also being utilized as a passing game option with nine targets on the season and he’s under $6,000. Robinson seeing well over double-digit touches is interesting but Arizona is 10th in DVOA against the run and that’s impressive seeing as how they have faced Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. Lawerence is using all three receivers more than Robinson so I do prefer other options at this same salary. 

WR – We suspected that Marvin Jones could be the best fantasy receiver on this team and so far, that’s been very accurate. He leads in targets, air yards share and is the only player on the team with RZ and EZ targets. Arizona corner Robert Alford likely draws the most of the coverage here. Alford has only been targeted nine times so far but has allowed six catches and a 1.26 FPPT. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a receiver get seven targets, two catches, and 1.7 DK points but congratulations Laviska Shenault. You did just that. D.J. Chark is still seeing plenty of targets and has a 13.9 aDOT but I’m not sure how comfortable you can feel playing a receiver with four receptions right now when he’s the most expensive receiver of the group. Just play Jones and call it a day here since he’s the clear best run-back option of this team. 

TE – I liked James O’Shaughnessy last week and he played all of 5% of the snaps before leaving with an ankle injury. Luke Farrell was the main player that stepped up as far as snaps with 64% but was also only targeted twice. That’s not a great sign and I feel we can do better than this. 

D/ST – Lol. 

Cash Plays – Jones

GPP Plays – Lawerence, Chark 

Jets at Broncos, O/U of 42 (Broncos -10)

Jets 

QB – We saw the dud coming from Zach Wilson a mile away last week but I’m not sure how much better this spot is for him. He and the Jets have to travel into Denver against a top 10 DVOA unit and a nasty pass rush. Wilson has been brought down 10 times already with a pressure rate of almost 40% so far this year. The Broncos haven’t even allowed 400 passing yards yet and they get to feast on a rookie for the second week in a row. 

RB – With coach Robert Saleh openly saying they will be riding the hot hand in an RBBC, it’s really hard to get behind Michael Carter even after 13 touches last week for over 10 DK points. 

That makes total sense for the Jets but it leaves us in a tough spot. If we “chase” Carter and he comes out and makes a mistake, he could get no work. On top of that, Denver has allowed the second-fewest rush yards to running backs so far and sit eighth in DVOA against the run. It’s another tough spot for the Jets offense and I’ll pass. 

Update – Coleman is out which on a different slate could make it interesting, but this isn’t the spot for it.

WR – With the instability at quarterback, I’m not certain we need to go this route. Corey Davis saw another five targets last week but went for just eight yards. Here’s the thing – he’s not even leading in targets in the offense right now. That would be Braxton Berrios, who has a 28.1% target share to this point. Yes, the Jets have been without Jamison Crowder and they would need to be again if you wanted to go with Berrios. He’s sitting tied for seventh in raw targets across the entire NFL. It’s not a large surprise to see Berrios playing 62% of his snaps from the slot and that would lead him into Bryce Callahan. It’s a tough matchup as Callahan has only allowed a 42% completion rate on just seven targets. It’s more noteworthy about the offense and how it’s running with a rookie quarterback. 

Update – Crowder is doubtful, so we should see the same passing offense we’ve been seeing with New York.

TE – There’s not a real reason to play Tyler Kroft or Ryan Griffin in this game. They both are playing snaps at over a 55% rate and Griffin has carved out a 12.5% target share but a rookie quarterback on the road that isn’t being protected well sounds like a poor idea, even at the salary. 

D/ST – Honestly, the Jets defense hasn’t played that poorly. They are 17th in total DVOA, have a 20.3% pressure rate, and have generated one turnover. Those aren’t great numbers but Saleh and company have this unit at least not getting walked up and down the field. The Broncos are quietly giving up a pressure rate over 32% so we could see at least a couple of sacks here with a 26.1% blitz rate. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Berrios, Davis

Broncos 

QB – Only three players have a better on-target rate than the 85.5% that Teddy Bridgewater sits at through two weeks. What is most impressive is the other three are above 18th in air yards this season while Teddy B is fourth, throwing for 10 yards per attempt. Only Russell Wilson is higher at 10.2 yards so Bridgewater is shedding his label of just a caretaker of the offense. Jacksonville is 28th in DVOA and they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards through two weeks. Bridgewater has the weapons to take advantage of the spot and he’s not been given the due respect for salary, sitting at just $5,800. Even without Jerry Jeudy, Bridgewater showed he has upside with 24 DK points last week. 

RB – It’s not that much different than the New York spot and it’s hard to pick between Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Gordon holds the slight edge in snaps but Williams has more carries at 27-24 and they are tied with four RZ targets a piece. Over half of Gordon’s 132 yards rushing came on a 70+ yard run and while I’m not a fan of taking away big plays…it’s noticeable two weeks into the season. Neither player is getting a ton of work in the passing game with five targets for Gordon and just two for Williams. That’s partly a product of Bridgewater being aggressive this year throwing the ball. I’m going to continue to play Williams to get ahead of his breakout week since he’s cheaper but he won’t be a core play this week. 

WR – Courtland Sutton seems a little pricey but he is coming off a 12 target game and he has the role that we love with a 20.9 aDOT. He also leads the Broncos in targets now and has one EZ target. Sutton leads the entire league in air yards and he’ll face a lot of Brandin Echols and even though he’s only been targeted seven times, he’s allowed a 71.4% completion rate thus far. Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler are a lot thinner plays because Patrick is living on touchdowns right now. After all, he only has seven receptions for 76 yards. That’s really not that special but he co-leads the team in RZ targets and Denver should be in there quite often. Hamler is also a deep threat at a 20.0 aDOT but only has four receptions. He’s going to have a game where he catches a bomb or two but predicting that is tough. I’d likely stick with Sutton, and then Patrick as a cheap touchdown player. 

TE – It was a good thing Noah Fant caught a touchdown last week because there wasn’t a lot else to love. With Sutton terrorizing the Jacksonville secondary, Fant only saw six targets for a paltry 33 yards. It’s a bit of a downer to see his aDOT at just 5.6 yards while Teddy is slinging it to other parts of the field. I mean, Sutton has an aDOT of 20.6 on one more target. Fant is a fine cash article that shouldn’t cripple you with three RZ targets, but I can’t see why I wouldn’t find $400 for Hockenson. 

D/ST – They’re in a complete smash spot but I cannot justify spending this amount. They would need to score over 15 DK points to make it worth it and that’s possible, it’s not the best use of salary. Denver is 10th in DVOA overall and the Jets are just a turnstile, letting Wilson get pressured on almost 40% of his dropbacks. Still, it’s only $800 less than say, Hockenson. It’s $1,300 less than Hollywood Brown. The odds are those players (and others in this range) are going to score a lot more points. 

Cash Plays – Teddy B, Fant, Sutton

GPP Plays – Patrick, Williams 

Dolphins at Raiders, O/U of 45 (Raiders -4)

Dolphins 

QB – I won’t be interested here regardless of Tua Tagovailoa playing or if Jacoby Brissett is in. If Tua tries to push through his rib injury, you could easily see him get pulled in the middle of the game if the pain becomes too much. The Vegas defense is 17th in DVOA but also has only given up two passing touchdowns with just one interception. You can build a case for Tua breaking out if he plays and he gets a receiver back but I’m hard-pressed to build the said case. Past the Saints/Patriots game and Jets/Broncos, this is the third-lowest O/U on the slate and there is good reason for that. 

Update – Tua has fractured ribs and is out. 

RB – Siri, show me a horrible situation for fantasy – 

The Raiders have given up plenty of production to running backs with three touchdowns given up and over 200 scrimmage yards. The downside is the split work and potentially a backup quarterback, making it even easier for the Raiders to focus on the run. I will note that this game was a blowout so maybe that had something to do with it but even still. 

WR – Will Fuller is back but now working with a backup quarterback so I’m not nearly as excited. We also still have Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker in this mix and while Brissett looked at Waddle plenty when he took over, this situation still seems sketchy. If I’m going anywhere, I would stick with Waddle. He’s playing an awful lot in the slot at 45.6% of the snaps and his 6.1 aDOT is more in line with what I would expect from Brissett. Waddle is also the only player in this receiving group with RZ targets at two. What I also like is Nate Hobbs has been the slot corner for the Raiders this season and he’s only been targeted five times, but he’s not forced an incompletion yet. 

TE – Mike Gesicki has struggled to make an impact without Fuller in the lineup so it’s hard to see it happening at this point. Gesicki has yet to climb over 53% of the snaps and only has been targeted for an 11.6% target share. That’s not terrible, but it’s not something to be excited about either. Another large issue is he’s yet to get an RZ target as well and he just doesn’t appear to be valued in the offense. 

D/ST – They are fine as the Raiders have allowed five sacks and a pressure rate of 28.7%, the ninth-highest in the league. Miami is also 11th in total DVOA and they bring the blitz at a 40.8% rate, confident in their corners to hold up. That has only resulted in two sacks so far but this could be a solid if an unspectacular spot for them. 

Cash Plays – None 

GPP Plays – Waddle, D/ST 

Raiders 

QB – It’s a tough matchup on paper but Derek Carr has been on fire to start the season with at least 382 passing yards in each game so far. He’s only thrown one interception and Carr is leading the league in passing yards by over 120 yards. It’s not like he’s squeaking by at this point. Carr is also second in air yards on the year so he’s being aggressive down the field. Even though some of his receiving options aren’t the best for fantasy, they stretch the field and it only takes one or two plays to rattle off a lot of yards. The lack of the run game is forcing the Raiders offense to be more aggressive since they are 31st in rushing yards per game. They have to move the ball somehow and Carr has been the center of it thus far. 

RB – It appears that Josh Jacobs is on high alert to not play in this game, which leaves the work to Kenyan Drake and Peyton Barber. Drake had a significant edge in snaps last week at 71% but he only had seven carries compared to 13 for Barber on 28.7% of the snaps. It likely doesn’t help Barber that he got so many carries on so few snaps because it was easy to tell what was happening. I would much rather play Drake even with just 20 yards on 13 carries. He’s faced some tough defensive fronts and Drake has 11 targets already, the fourth-most on the team. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are in the top six in rushing yards allowed while Miami is in the bottom five, opening up some production on the ground for Drake (and Barber, though I’m not that interested). Miami is also 22nd in DVOA against the run so this is a pretty strong matchup for Vegas. 

Update – Jacobs is indeed doubtful for this one.

WR – I was going to be willing to take a chance on a cheap Henry Ruggs but he’s not all that cheap. He’s kicked into the slot 31% of the time, which would give him a better chance for a long touchdown avoiding Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Neither Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow has a target share of over 18% so far this year and it’s just not a good matchup at all. I’m not interested on such a large slate. 

TE – When a tight end owns a 29.2% target share and a 31.7% share of the air yards and isn’t $7,500, it should be noticeable. Darren Waller is in a great spot as Miami boasts their excellent corner duo and that could funnel even more work to Waller (like he needs the help). He’s priced like the WR4 on the slate and deserves to be so he’s in play in all formats and an elite option as well. He can be a little bring to write about because he’s the alpha in the passing game and you play him if you can. Maybe it’s a hot take but he’s my tight end of choice in any format outside of a Chiefs stack with Kelce. 

D/ST – If they get to face Brissett, sign me up if you can afford them. Vegas isn’t even blitzing at 4.9% but they have the fourth-highest pressure rate in football and five sacks. Let’s make sure who the Miami starter is before we get too excited. 

Update – Get excited, even though it’s not a discount rate. 

Cash Plays – Waller, D/ST, Carr

GPP Plays – Drake, Ruggs 

Seahawks at Vikings, O/U of 55.5 (Seahawks -1.5)

Seahawks 

QB – Russell Wilson continues to be one of the best options at his position with six touchdowns, no interceptions, and the eighth-most passing yards. Minnesota is 22nd in DVOA and just got shredded by Kyler and company, so I’m having a hard time thinking they can contain the passing game here. One of the only issues we can poke at with Wilson is he’s 27th in attempts and only has four RZ attempts. Just strictly from a volume standpoint, Wilson is not any different than Baker Mayfield. He just is far more efficient and has two of the better receivers in football to make the offense work. Russ has been mostly ignored compared to other elite options so far this year and if that continues, we can continue to take advantage. 

RB – It was a really good thing Chris Carson fell into the end zone a couple of times last week because he didn’t do very much on the ground. Carson only generated 31 yards on the ground on 13 carries and did not record a target, which is slightly concerning. Carson saw an 11.5% target share last year but through two weeks it’s down under 6% and frankly, no player outside of the two main receivers is doing very much so far. Minnesota is only 17th in DVOA against the run so far and has allowed over 200 rushing yards so it’s not a terrible spot at all. I’m just not in love with the general lack of targets at $6,400 but it is only two weeks into the season. You know he’s the RZ guy so I certainly don’t hate him, but would likely play him in cash only.

WR – It’s going to sound like a broken record but it’s D.K. Metcalf Week Part Three: Revenge of the Goat. I get it, he’s hurt us a little bit because he’s been solid but Tyler Lockett has had a 52.1% of the air yards share to just 33.6% for Metcalf. Lockett has gone bonkers the first two weeks and the targets and EZ targets are the exact same. You don’t get the role Metcalf has right now and not continue to not have explosion games. It just has to happen. Patrick Peterson got smacked by Metcalf last year in Arizona and that’s going to happen again. He’s giving up a 2.92 FPPT on five targets and 11.5 YPR. Lockett isn’t playing as much in the slot at just 24% and should see a lot of Bashaud Breeland who is also allowing a 2.89 FPPT. Good luck stopping these two receivers. 

TE – With all of the focus in this passing game going to Lockett and Metcalf, the duo of Gerald Everett and Will Dissly combined for exactly two targets. Everett is going to poach a touchdown now and then, but that’s going to be about it. He could be part of a game stack but that might be the extent I’m willing to go with it since he’s running under 20 routes per game. 

D/ST – I have no real interest as Minnesota has only allowed four sacks so far and has just one turnover. I would have strong concerns about the secondary holding up against this talented receiving corps and stopping one of the best backs in football. 

Cash Plays – Carson, Lockett

GPP Plays – Russ, Metcalf 

Vikings 

QB – Kirk Cousins is the no sizzle, all steak option since he’s thrown five touchdowns to no interceptions and is completing over 71% of his attempts so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that he’d be tied for eighth in attempts two weeks in and Seattle is 20th in DVOA and has the ninth-most yards allowed. He’s really not expensive enough and Seattle just had some issues with a pair of two strong receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. 

RB – Seattle’s defense might still be having nightmares about facing Derrick Henry and facing Dalvin Cook isn’t going to make anything easier. Cook is averaging over 20 DK points per game so far and that is with just one touchdown on the season. Just like we thought, he’s owning the backfield with 89% of the running back attempts and he has a target share of over 12.5%. Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing yards and three touchdowns but even more interesting to me is they lead the league in receiving yards given up and receptions against the backs. Considering they are 20th in DVOA against the run and Cook is among the elite as far as receiving chops at the running back position, he is a fantastic play this week with the Vikings needing a win badly. 

Update – Cook hasn’t practiced all week, which is of note and possible concern. I tend to think he suits up with the Vikings at 0-2, but I would shy away in cash as we stand right now. If he sits, Alexander Mattison likely becomes one of the most popular plays on the slate.

WR – I wouldn’t have guessed that K.J. Osborn would have a higher air yards share than Adam Thielen two weeks into the season but that’s where we’re at. Now, that’s not to leave Justin Jefferson out in the cold because his air yards share is 47.9%, the eighth-highest in the league. He’s also eighth in unrealized air yards so he has some higher potential than he’s showed so far. The alignments this year would put him against Tre Flowers who has allowed a 2.6 FPPT while Thielen gets D.J. Reed who has only allowed a 9.8 YPR with no touchdowns yet. Osborn has been in the slot and would face Ugo Amadi and remains wildly cheap for 15 targets, a 22.8% air yards share, and a 71.5% snap rate. His snaps came down last week but they should be playing in another competitive game and if Cook is hurting, they could just put this on Cousins and the passing game.

TE – Tyler Conklin has only seen eight targets so far, good for fifth on the team and a 10.1% target share. He’s yet to get a look in the RZ or EZ and with a player like Thielen on the squad, that’s not in a big hurry to change. He’s running enough routes to be inside the top 12 but it’s not translating to much production yet. 

D/ST – I’m not banking on another defensive touchdown to help them this week although they do have eight sacks already, tied for the second-most. Russ has been brought down six times so far but only has a 20% pressure rate to go with one turnover. Minnesota is also just 21st in total DVOA so I’ll likely pass. 

Cash Plays – Cousins, Jefferson, Osborn 

GPP Plays – Thielen, Cook

Buccaneers at Rams, O/U of 55 (Bucs -1.5)

Buccaneers 

QB – Regardless of matchup, I’m not sure why Tom Brady saw his price decrease by $100 against the Rams this week. That makes little sense to me since he’s coming off another 30 DK point game. The Rams are 4th in DVOA but does it matter with the Bucs and Brady? Is there any matchup that would change your mind? LA can get pressure right up the middle with Aaron Donald and that has long been the surest way to get Brady rattle, but that’s easier said than done. Brady continues to release the ball among the quickest in the league. He also leads the league in RZ attempts at a whopping 19 so far this year. I don’t foresee Brady being a super popular option and that could be a fun late-day hammer. 

RB – Remember when Bruce Arians said that Ronald Jones was the starter coming into the week? I remember. I also see RoJo got six carries to 11 for Leonard Fournette and Uncle Lenny had four targets to three for RoJo as well. Fournette leads by a lot in carries, targets, and snaps so there is no reason to think it’s different this week until he makes a mistake and Arians flips out and benches him. That seems to be what happens all the time. As it stands, we have a clear-cut hierarchy in this backfield. The Rams have shown some vulnerability on the ground with 192 yards allowed and sitting 19th in DVOA against the run. 

WR – Arguably the largest piece of news on the slate to this point is Antonio Brown’s status for this game. He could potentially test negative twice before the game on Sunday for Covid, but that seems like a tight timeline. If he’s out, I thought Chris Godwin could become one of the best plays on the slate at his salary but let’s talk about it. Mike Evans doesn’t always have his best games against the best corners and while Jalen Ramsey doesn’t shadow fully but he’s one of the best and should see Evans often. So far this season, Ramsey has gone into the slot 50% of the time so he’s going to cover both receivers without a doubt. Ramsey has only allowed seven receptions for a 0.93 FPPT. Godwin has been in the slot 60% so far and the matchups are far from set in stone. I still love Godwin with a 23.5% target share and AB would vacate 12.3% of the target share and 28.4% of the air yards share. I would think Tyler Johnson could be the next man up with three targets on the season but we’re getting thin with the other options in the offense. 

TE – I need to get on the Rob Gronkowski diet or something because this guy has been a terror so far. He already has found the end zone four times and is third on the team in targets, ahead of AB. Gronkowski is also not leaving the field very much at an 84% snap share and he already has three RZ targets with two in the EZ. Only Godwin and AB have more receiving yards and in this offense, it’s impossible to cover all four options. He’s going to get plenty of opportunities and if Brady keeps chucking in the red zone, the touchdown equity is just sky-high. 

D/ST – I won’t be looking that way at all at this price point. Jared Goff doesn’t quarterback the Rams anymore. 

Update – Jason Pierre-Paul is ou for this one and that is a big hit for the pass rush for the Bucs.

Cash Plays – Brady, Gronkowski, Godwin 

GPP Plays – Evans, Johnson 

Rams 

QB – The best way to move the ball against the Bucs is through the air and Matthew Stafford could be in line for a big game. They have given up two 300-yard passers so far this year and Tampa is only 14th in DVOA. They are the only team to already face over 100 attempts and we don’t need to twist Sean McVay’s arm to throw the ball a lot. Stafford is only 23rd in attempts thus far but seventh in yards and they haven’t even opened up the offense yet with Stafford sitting 17th in air yards on the season. With Tampa already missing a very important corner, this is a strong spot for Stafford as far as volume. If the Rams move the ball, it’s going to be on Stafford’s right arm. We also have this gem from Jon Ledyard – 

RB – Darrell Henderson is highly questionable in this game which could open the door for Sony Michel, but regardless of who is starting, I’m not interested. Tampa continues to dominate on the ground with only 99 yards allowed and sitting fifth in DVOA. While they do have a weakness against pass-catching running backs, Henderson hasn’t been utilized a lot in that facet with just six targets. That is a 10.9% share which isn’t terrible but it’s not enough to play Henderson at $5,900. Michel has yet to see a target this year and he’s only played 17% of the snaps. This strikes me as a spot where the Rams just lean on the passing game and we can have other options. 

WR – Is Cooper Kupp going to continue to go off for 30+ points every game? No, but he’s still too cheap for this spot. He is just killing it with Stafford and has a 38.2% target share with a 36.2% air yards share. When he’s in the slot, he’s going to face Ross Cockrell and Kupp is going to eat him alive. Robert Woods gets the tougher matchup in Carlton Davis on the boundary around 80% of the time. Davis has been targeted 18 times already and has only allowed a 55% catch rate. I honestly think we see at least one more Kupp week of dominance in this matchup. Van Jefferson is on the field a whole lot with over 80% of the snaps and plays the boundary the most of anyone. I’m not sold on him because Jamel Dean can match his speed as they both are sub 4.4 in the 40-yard dash. 

Update – I’m actually walking back not being sold on Jefferson. They’re going to throw the ball so much and it only takes one play with him. If you stack up other expensive pieces, he’s a great cheap player to get in on this game.

TE – We talked last week about Tyler Higbee not leaving the field and running a ton of routes and even though he had just one measly reception this week, the usage was the same. He’s not missed a snap yet, he ran a route on all but six dropbacks for Stafford, and he was in the slot or out wide for over half his routes. Still….just one target. Tampa has given up the fifth-most yards to tight ends so far and they only faced Pitts in his second game as far as players of note. With Higbee being a giant flop last week, we could get a bounce-back game here. 

D/ST – You just don’t get enough of a discount to take the risk. The Rams could be suited to slow Brady down with pressure right up the middle with Donald and Ramsey perhaps taking away one portion of the field, but $3,500 isn’t worth it to find out. 

Cash Plays – Kupp, Stafford

GPP Plays – Higbee, Woods, Jefferson 

Cash Core 4 

Cooper Kupp, Saquon Barkley, Tyler Boyd, Chris Godwin (provided Antonio Brown is out)

GPP Core 4 

A.J. Brown, Van Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce

Stacks 

Chargers/Chiefs – Herbert/Ekeler/Williams/Allen – Run Backs – Kelce, Reek, CEH, Hardman (obviously Mahomes is in play but Herbert for almost $2,000 cheaper on DK makes life a lot easier)

Bucs/Rams – Stafford/Kupp/Jefferson/Woods/Higbee – Run Backs – Godwin/Gronkowski/Evans/Fournette/Brady

Seahawks/Vikings – Russ/Metcalf/Lockett/Carson – Run Backs – Jefferson/Thielen/Cook/Osborn

Large gap Between these three games and the others

Falcons/Giants – Ridley/Pitts/Davis/Patterson – Run Back – Danny Dimes/Slayton/Shepard/Golladay

Cardinals/Jaguars – Kyler/Moore/Nuk/Edmonds – Run Back – Marvin Jones

Ravens/Lions – Lamar/Hollywood/Andrews – Run Backs – Hockenson/Swift (I dig the Hollywood/Hock mini stack)

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport