NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 16

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 16

We have another loaded and crazy week in front of us and as of right now, 11 games are scheduled for the main slate. We also have a Saturday slate once again. With plenty to get to, let’s get to work in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 16 to carve our paths to green!

Saturday Slate

Browns at Packers, O/U of 46 (Packers -7.5)

Browns

QB – On a slate like this, it’s hard to advocate for Baker Mayfield because he simply does not have the upside others do on paper. He’s been terrible for fantasy and is very shaky as far as his next contract, sitting 24th in true completion rate, 24th in yards, under 29 attempts per game, 24th in points per dropback, and 28th in points per game. The Packers are 19th in DVOA against the pass and maybe Baker cleans up in garbage time, but playing him over other quarterbacks could be a death sentence. The ceilings are just way too high for other players. 

RB – With this being the last stand for Cleveland, you would expect them to hitch the wagon to Nick Chubb and let him take them as far as he can. He had 23 attempts last week and was a holding cal away from a double-dong game, which would have put him over 20 DraftKings points. Green Bay is just 26th in DVOA against the run and allows 4.5 yards per attempt, 25th in the NFL. It’s a dynamite matchup for Chubb and the best way to beat the Packers is to keep that offense on the sidelines. It’s hard to not make him a priority on this slate. 

WR – We know that Jarvis Landry will be back for this game as his quarantine expires Friday, and the price is very appealing. His last three games have seen him rack up 28 total targets and never dip below 14.2 DraftKings points and since Week 11, Landry boasts a 28.3% target share. That’s a ton for this salary and a projected negative script. He’s still in the slot around 38% of the time although that number has trended a bit lower without Odell Beckham. When he’s in the slot, he’ll face Chandon Sullivan who has a slot rate over 83% and Sullivan has allowed a 115.9 passer rating and 2.08 points per target across 31 targets this season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones continues to be a risky play with a high ceiling for his salary and he’s fourth in yards per target and third in yards per reception, so we know what the role is. His target share in the same span as Landry’s ascension is higher than you would think at 21.5% as well. Facing Eric Stokes could be a challenge since Stokes can fly and he’s only allowing 5.2 yards per target, 21st among corners. Considering he’s been targeted 81 times, that’s an impressive mark. I think I prefer other cheap receivers but let’s see what the rest of the slate brings. 

TE – I would assume that the Browns will get their full complement of tight ends back for this game, which makes it harder to like any of them. Austin Hooper and David Njoku have split work all year with Hooper sitting at a 13.9% target share to 12.1% for Njoku. Hooper also has a small lead in red-zone work at 10-7. Green Bay is in the bottom-eight of receptions allowed so the matchup is fine from that perspective. Hooper would be the main player but he’s not my favorite on the slate. 

D/ST – This slate is going to be mostly about who fits but going against Green Bay is not that appealing. Cleveland is 13th in points allowed, 15th in total DVOA, and they are mid-pack in pressure rate. They are tied for fifth in sacks in large part to Myles Garrett but Green Bay has only 16th in sacks allowed. 

Update – Garrett is slated to play but he’s working through a groin injury. That is not good for Cleveland and the Packers offense might be able to do anything they want.

Targets – Chubb, Landry, Peoples-Jones, Hooper

Packers

QB – Aaron Rodgers continues to be on a tear in the past month with 13 touchdowns in his past four games and a least 23 DraftKings points scored. He’s tied for fifth in touchdowns with 30, fifth in points per dropback, fifth in yards per attempt, and 10th in passing yards. Cleveland is down to 23rd in DVOA and 12th in yards per attempt. They are 14th in completion rate allowed at 65% and the Packers are playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. It feels like you have to choose between Rodgers or one other player, but fitting in everyone with an expensive quarterback is going to be a challenge. 

RB – After talking up the running back split, Green Bay went directly back to Aaron Jones handling the bulk of the snaps and carries last week. A.J. Dillon still had a 2-1 advantage in the red zone as far as carries but Jones had a 2-1 lead in targets. Anytime that we can feel comfortable with Jones being the lead back under $7,000, it’s going to be interesting. Cleveland is ninth in yards per attempt allowed at 4.1 and 16th in DVOA, so the matchup isn’t that bad either. I prefer others, but Jones has nuclear upside on every single slate and he’s ninth in red-zone touches. 

WR – It’s becoming a little easier to stack the Packers passing tree with the loss of both Randall Cobb and now Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He let us down last week to some extent but Davante Adams remains one of the highest ceiling options on any slate, let alone a two-gamer. Realistically, if 6/44/1 is a down game then that’s not the worst outcome ever, even if the return on salary is underwhelming. He’s still third in yards, fourth in receptions, eighth in touchdowns, and second in points per game. It’s tough to sit here and say to fade him although there are some heavy hitters for fantasy on this short slate. 

Regardless of the decision on Adams, Allen Lazard is going to need to step up in this one. MVS, Cobb, and even tight end Robert Tonyan combined for a target share of around 36%. It can’t all be Adams and Jones in the passing game and Lazard has a 10.9% share himself in a part-time role. What is really interesting for him is he’s seen the third-most red-zone targets on the team and he’s tied for the most end-zone targets. That’s a lot of opportunity for a score and he’s too cheap to be the number 2/3 (counting Jones) in the passing game. With fewer receivers, the matchups are a little harder to predict as far as alignments. 

TE – Josiah Deguara wouldn’t be on my radar on a normal slate, but for a two-game slate we can at least take a look. With MVS out, that’s around 18% of the target share over the past three weeks, which is when Segura has been getting 12.1%. It may not be a lot but you don’t need a ton at this salary. The Browns are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to the position and Segura has been on the field for about 60% of the snaps in the past few weeks. 

D/ST – This could be the best fit because the salary is still affordable and Cleveland is the “easiest” offense to pick on. If they can have a cushion from the offense, the Packers defense can worry less about Chubb and the run game and force the Browns outside of their comfort zone. They are not built to pass 35+ times per game and Green Bay is fifth in turnovers forced. That’s enough for the choices available. 

Targets – Adams, Jones, Rodgers, Lazard, Deguara, D/ST 

Colts at Cardinals, O/U of 48.5 (Cardinals -1)

Colts

QB – Carson Wentz went full Mac Jones last week and you never want to go the full Mac Jones. Wentz only attempted 12 attempts but that’s likely not going to happen this week. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s been great this year while sitting 19th in yards, 23rd in yards per attempt, 16th in points per dropback, and 20th in points per game. That’s not the greatest set of metrics but if the Arizona offense gets their issues figured out, this could turn into a shootout. Wentz could be a pathway to fit in every skill player you want and you just hope he gets you to 18 DK or higher. Arizona is fourth in DVOA against the pass but in the last three weeks, they’re 29th in yards per attempt allowed. 

RB – Jonathan Taylor is the absolute stone chalk of the slate and I will be eating every bit of that yummy chalk. He has zero business being $8,300 and he scored another 26 DraftKings points last week. Arizona has really been struggling against the run since J.J. Watt has been out, down to 27th in yards per carry on the season and over 1,300 rushing yards allowed. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards, he’s second in carries, and he has the most red-zone touches in football. Don’t hesitate, just play him. 

Update – Quenton Nelson is out for this game and that isn’t ideal for JT, but it is not nearly enough to fade him.

WR – If we’re landing on Wentz (and even if not, really), Michael Pittman is wildly appealing at this salary. He has been a little up and down this year, especially lately with here games under 10 DraftKings in his last four. The flip side is that has depressed his price to a very low level and he still leads the Colts in target share at 24.7%. He’s 16th in the NFL in receptions and has the fifth-highest route rate of any receiver. Since he’s not playing much in the slot, that means he’s facing Marco Wilson on the boundary most of the game and Wilson has allowed a 70.2% catch rate, 136.5 passer rating, and 2.28 points per target this season. Byron Murphy of the Cards has played about half his snaps in the slot and that would put him on Zach Pascal while Murphy has allowed just a 59.7% catch rate. If I’m locking in Taylor, Pittman is likely the only exposure to the passing game for me. 

TE – Jack Doyle has been miserable outside of the one week we liked him and he’s seen just two targets in the past two weeks. He is no higher than 25th in yards, receptions, red-zone targets, and points per game. 

D/ST – Typically we do not target defenses against Arizona, but this defense co-leads the league in takeaways with 31 and they have 30 sacks. They’re eighth in total DVOA and ninth in points allowed, which isn’t a mix we get at this salary very often. I could see them and Cleveland being the least popular and if that’s the case, Indy is worth taking a chance on. 

Targets – Taylor, Pittman, D/ST, Wentz, Pascal 

Cardinals 

QB – One of the biggest flops of the fantasy season was Kyler Murray in Week 15 as he barely scored 13.5 points against the lowly Lions. He looked out of sorts all game but the Colts passing defense is vulnerable, ranking 16th in DVOA against the pass and 19th in yards per attempt. He’s second in yards per attempt, fourth in points per game, and third in points per dropback. The rushing has been hit and miss this year but this is a good bounce-back spot at home against the Colts. The challenge will come from fitting the elite skill players with him or Rodgers, which could make Wentz more popular than he should be on this slate. 

RB – Chase Edmonds came back last week and the split for snaps was pretty close, 44% to 38.7% in favor of James Conner. Edmonds had six carries to eight for Conner while Conner had a 2-1 advantage in targets as well. That makes it difficult to really get behind either player, especially Conner. He’s priced as the lead back but Arizona didn’t treat him like that while both backs were healthy. Until Week 10 when Edmonds was out for the first game, Conner had 115-76 advantage in carries and Edmonds was leading in targets at 37-10. If you need cheap exposure, Edmonds would be the favored player but the split looks to be back again.

Update – Conner is reportedly active tonight.  

WR – It feels like you almost have to have Christian Kirk in lineups this week and this slate is a puzzle because there are at least 6-7 guys I feel that way about. Until DraftKings does away with the salary cap, we can’t play them all but Kirk really stepped up in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. He led the team in snap rate at 96%, led in targets at 12, led in air yards, and then led in receptions and yards. We’ve attacked the Colts through the air every week and it doesn’t stop just because it’s Saturday. The duo of Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore has below-average metrics and Rock Ya-Sin is out for this game, so the matchups matter very little. 

If Kirk is super popular, it’s a good idea to buy low on A.J. Green as well, especially if Rondale Moore is out. Green also saw eight targets and tied for the team lead in end zone targets and the savings makes him a little easier to fit. One of the bigger wild cards on this slate is little-known receiver Antoine Wesley. He’ll be more popular if Moore can’t go but he stepped into a significant role last week. It didn’t result in much but he played more snaps than Green and had the same eight targets and the same two end zone targets. He is the primary punt option this week and I’m interested to see what the field does with him. 

Update – Moore is still listed as questionable, and as of 1:15 p.m. we don’t have any updates.

TE – I’ve largely been ignoring Zach Ertz while he’s been on the Cardinals but this week stops that trend. While I’m intrigued by 11 targets last week, the Cards remain without Hopkins and Ertz should help fill that void. It just so happens that Indy is one of the best matchups so far for tight ends. They have allowed the most receptions and yards of any team in football to the position and just allowed Hunter Henry to score twice. He’s a high priority for me if I can squeeze him in. 

D/ST – I’ll be honest, I’m not interested. They have been getting worked by opposing running games and face the best back in the league. Considering the issues started with Watt being hurt, I don’t expect it to change and even though they are fifth in total DVOA, are tied for the fifth-most sacks, I’m going to pass because they could get gouged by Taylor. 

Targets – Kirk, Ertz, Wesley, Kyler, Green, Conner, Edmonds

Core Four

Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman, Zach Ertz

Sunday Slate

Giants at Eagles, O/U 40.5 (Eagles -10)

Giants

QB – The Giants could be starting Jake Fromm or Mike Glennon this week and I do not care which one it is. Philly is 13th in yards allowed per attempt and while they are 30th in completion rate allowed and 24th in DVOA, neither of these players have shown they’re an NFL-level player at this juncture. New York is 30th in points scored per game and the downside of playing either player is massive, let alone the chances they can get pulled. 

RB – I’m not here to totally talk you out of Saquon Barkley but he hasn’t been himself this year at least as far as results. He’s averaging under 13 DraftKings points per game and has been sabotaged by the offense overall, which is now 30th in scoring on the season. Saquon is getting the touches with at least 17 in the past four weeks but 18.5 DraftKings has been the ceiling, which is barely 3x. 

WR – Pour one out for Sterling Shepard, who tore an Achilles, and hopefully, he’s back healthy for next season. That leaves Kenny Golladay and maybe Kadarius Toney if he can make it back to carry the passing game but that’s not something I want to chase. I’m not sure you can overstate just how rough Golladay has been this season with just 2.8 receptions per game and 7.2 points per game with no touchdowns. Toney has flashed, but he’s been battling injuries for weeks. I’m mostly going to fade the Giants with such sub-par quarterback play as nobody has any tangible potential and they may not even have the ball for long with how Philly is running as of late. 

Update – Toney is questionable but I’m still not willing to go here.

TE – We’ve been down this road before with Evan Engram against the Eagles this season. It’s a great matchup but Engram is not a viable piece of the offense. On the year, he’s 35h in yards per route, 21st in points per game, and 20th in receptions. We can do better than this, especially with Glennon at quarterback (or Fromm). 

D/ST – If you think they can replicate the three interceptions as they had in the first matchup with Philly, you can punt but I’m not buying that in this spot. They’re down to 19th in total DVOA and they have forced 20 turnovers, but the Eagles offense is finding their groove a little bit. They have rolled up 210 rushing yards per game in the past three weeks and that’s not a great way to force a lot of turnovers. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Saquon, maybe Toney but that’s MME only 

Eagles 

QB – It would be nice for Jalen Hurts to let Miles Sanders score a touchdown before the season is over, but he played a pretty sharp game on Tuesday night and reminded us of the huge fantasy upside with 29.6 DraftKings points. It helped that he scored two rushing touchdowns at the goal line but he also had one of his better days passing with almost 300 yards and a 76.9% completion rate. The interception was not his fault and even though he’s still going to make a couple of rough throws, the floor is generally still high. What is really appealing is he’s under $6,500 and I’m totally fine chalking up his last game against the Giants as variance. Frankly, he can’t play much worse than the first matchup so the points per dollar upside are tough to match at the sixth-highest point per game and highest points per dropback in the league. 

RB – It’s amazing how a talented back like Miles Sanders actual carries as he ripped off another 100-yard game (and then some) on 18 carries. The running game for the Eagles has been ridiculously good in the past few weeks and Sanders is becoming more of a part of it and he’s still extremely cheap in this spot. The Giants are 28th in DVOA against the run and even with Jordan Howard involved heavily on Tuesday, a good chunk of his work came later in the game. With the Eagles on a short week, that makes sense and I think Sanders is clearing 20 carries against New York. 

WR – Devonta Smith is making it harder and harder to want to play him with each passing week. The target share is solid at 22.6% but when the offense is averaging 38.3 running plays over the past three weeks, that’s not a lot of attempts to split with other options. To wit, Smith has seen four, four, and five targets in those three games and has not scored more than seven DraftKings points. I believe it’s best to leave this passing game mostly alone, as I’m not playing either of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor. You can make a case for the next man just because of position scarcity. 

TE – I was hesitant to buy into Dallas Goedert since his big game came with Minshew at quarterback and not Hurts but he sure put that to bed Tuesday. Goedert has gone over 100 yards receiving for two games straight now and this is more in line with what we thought may happen with no Zach Ertz in the offense. He saved Hurts from an interception and has now rolled up 15 targets in the past two games. Considering the receivers are struggling to be constantly productive, Goedert is a fine option in any format. He’s staking a claim to the alpha in the passing game. 

D/ST – Philly is in a good spot but they really feel pricey. They just faced a quarterback that had been on the team for 72 hours and only managed three DraftKings points and two sacks. They have the fourth-fewest turnovers forced on the season and the third-fewest sacks while ranking 23rd in total DVOA. That’s not really what I want to pay for on a slate. 

Cash – Sanders, Hurts, Goedert

GPP – D/ST, Smith 

Rams at Vikings, O/U of 49 (Rams -3.5)

Rams

QB – Considering the defense he faced, it was a fairly disappointing week for Matthew Stafford last week but he’s still under $7,000 so he’s on my radar. Only Tom Brady has more red-zone attempts than Stafford and he’s fourth in yards per attempt, second in air yards, third in yards, seventh in points per dropback, fifth in points per game, and second in touchdowns. Minnesota is 26th in yards per attempt allowed at 7.1 and they’ve dropped to 18th in DVOA against the pass. It’s a good spot for Stafford to bounce back this week. 

RB – We have another cheap option at running back if last week is any indication because Sony Michel utterly took over the backfield in Los Angeles. 

Michel generated 115 scrimmage yards on his 20 touches so it’s hard to see why Henderson would leap-frog him at this juncture. With the Rams fifth in scoring, we want pieces of that offense. With Minnesota sitting 21st in DVOA against the run, it’s a strong matchup as well and I believe Michel could turn into a chalkier option. It was surprising to see him dominate the work like that after Darrell Henderson has been the workhorse all season long. 

Update – Cam Akers has been designated to return from his Achilles injury, but he is not expected to play for a couple of weeks. He had to be on the active roster for the last three games to be considered eligible for the playoffs. Michel would be the back we want here.  

WR – There is no Davante Adams or Jonathan Taylor on the slate, so Cooper Kupp is the clear-cut number one receiver once again. As things stand, he is likely to be my highest priority because there are multiple cheap backs that I really like and Kupp is affordable at $9,100. This man does not stop and racked up another 37.7 DraftKings points on Tuesday going 9/136/1. He leads every single category of meaning for receivers and the matchup against Mackensie Alexander is laughable. The corner for Minnesota has allowed 1.71 points per target and has nothing for Kupp. It’s a short week but Kupp and Stafford surely had some good breakfast and will be ready to rock. 

Since Odell Beckham has been on the Rams in Week 10, it’s been a mirror image between him and Van Jefferson. 

OBJ – 28 targets, 23.7% air yard share, four RZ targets, three EZ targets, 13.8 aDOT, 55.1 PPR points

Van – 29 targets, 23.5% air yard share, six RZ targets, five EZ targets, 13.2 aDOT, 60.9 PPR points

Since Jefferson has slight advantages, I’m going with him if playing a stack but both have some serious volatility alongside Kupp. Jefferson also sees Cameron Dantzler at corner who has 1.43 points per target allowed and 10.4 YPR. OBJ faces off against Patrick Peterson who’s at 1.37 points per target so Jefferson wins all the way around. 

Update – Take a look at Stix’s GPP article to get a better lean here in tournaments.

TE – Tyler Higbee has missed the past two games but he’s back in action this week. Higbee has been tough to roster and would be GPP-only because there is no real floor. There are three receivers in his offense that take priority over him. What Higbee does have is work in the red zone because he’s still second in red-zone targets among tight ends with 16. 

D/ST – Minnesota is 27th in sacks allowed, which isn’t exactly the best spot for the Rams on paper. However, they have the fourth-most sacks, rank sixth in total DVOA, and are 11th in points allowed. Given the Vikings very bland offense, LA is a fine option and they are really cheap. The only other aspect working against them is Minnesota has the third-fewest turnovers on the season with 12. I could see them being chalky at the salary. 

Cash – Kupp, Stafford, Michel 

GPP – D/ST, Jefferson, OBJ, Higbee 

Vikings 

QB – I just have to laugh at Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota game plan from Monday night. The Bears were legitimately missing their entire starting secondary and yet, Cousins threw the ball just 24 times and generated a whopping 87 passing yards. Eighty. Seven. Anyways, this matchup isn’t going to be easier but maybe he’s forced to pass a little more frequently. As much as I can be critical of last week, Cousins has been a solid fantasy option this year with the 10th most points per game. He’s only 15th in points per dropback but it appears that he’s missing receiver Adam Thielen, since the past two games have not been great for Cousins. The Rams are seventh in DVOA against the pass so he’s not one of the stronger options on the slate, especially with Hurts and Stafford right there. 

RB – The good news for Dalvin Cook is you know that you’re going to get the volume. Even with the Bears missing every single starting member of their secondary last week, Cook was given 28 carries for a meager 3.2 yards per clip. I don’t particularly understand that but the Rams can be vulnerable against the run at points. However, now Cook is out and Alexander Mattison is a free square on FD at $5,500 because he walks into 15+ touches. DK has him priced more competitively and I will not likely have as much interest. 

WR – With the expectation Justin Jefferson would see a chunk of Jalen Ramsey, he’s not going to be the first receiver I spend on this week. Ramsey is down to 36.4% for his slot rate and is only allowing 1.24 fantasy points per target and 9.3 yards per reception. Jefferson has been awesome this year and could turn into an incredible GPP option because he’s second in yards, first in air yards share at 44.9%, sixth in yards per route, and fifth in points per game. Ramsey is excellent but he’s going to have his hands full in this game. 

If Jefferson is being contained, Adam Thielen could be interesting but he did have a high ankle sprain which can be difficult to get back to full speed. He’s also pushing $7,000 and that feels pretty high, given the floor if he doesn’t find the paint. Let’s see if he can even make it back. 

Update – Thielen carries no injury designation so it looks like he’s going to be ready to roll for this game.

TE – These past couple of weeks was the window for Ty Conklin to step up and be a bigger part of the offense with no Thielen. He’s seen a total of five targets and turned it into 3/27 in two games. It’s not all his fault because of how poorly Cousins played on Monday night especially. 

D/ST – Full credit to the Vikings ranking first in sacks on the season with 44 but the Rams have only given up 24 sacks on the season, 23rd in the league. They’ve only turned it over 15 times and they allow a bottom-eight pressure rate on Stafford. The price is fine to gamble on in GPP for MME, but nothing more. You just hope they force a turnover and get home 4-5 times. 

Cash – None (Mattison on FD)

GPP – Jefferson, Mattison, Cousins, Thielen 

Bills at Patriots, O/U of 43.5 (Patriots -2.5)

Bills

QB – Josh Allen continues to show his consistency this season with only one flop outside of the bad weather game two weeks ago. He only threw for 210 yards but also three touchdowns and he’s up to fourth in points per dropback this year. Allen also leads in points per game, air yards, and he’s in the top five of every rushing category for quarterbacks except for touchdowns. While New England is third in DVOA against the pass, Allen is one of the more unique players in the league to try and contain. If he’s not popular, he could be a very fin GPP option this week. 

RB – It appears that the Bills have finally decided on a running back and it’s Devin Singletary. With Zack Moss inactive this past week, Singletary gobbled up 23 touches and that was easily the most of the season. He rewarded the confidence with 96 total yards and a score, so it’s tempting to go right back to him in this game. He would be far too cheap if we feel comfortable with him repeating, but I’m not sure if that comfort level is there after 15 weeks. New England is 26th in yards per attempt allowed and has surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to backs. On top of that, the Patriots are in the bottom 10 in yards, and receptions allowed. While Singletary is not Jonathan Taylor, the price is tempting. Let’s see if the week of practice gives us some clues if Singletary is going to retain this role. 

WR – I would imagine the Bills turn to Gabriel Davis to fill the void in the slot in this game since Cole Beasley is out, as Davis has a 29.8% slot rate. Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders are under 16% on the season so that would make the most sense. Myles Bryant has played some slot for New England in his 42.8% snap rate and he’s been targeted 22 times while allowing an 11.7 YPR. Diggs will see the most of J.C. Jackson and while Diggs has been good, the season hasn’t been the same as last year. He’s 10th in receptions and yards and ninth in points per game so I still favor him in the matchup. It’s just been a little bit of a step back fantasy-wise and the 25% target share is just 15th among receivers. Sanders will assume his deep target role and still is in the top 20 in yards per reception at 15.2. I’d rank them Davis, Diggs, Sanders but I do like Diggs as a GPP target. He’s got virtually no buzz and folks won’t look at him here. He had the Patriots secondary beat multiple times in the first matchup but the elements had a negative effect. 

Update – Davis has now been ruled out and Isaiah McKenzie is going to have to step up and he is the minimum on DraftKings for this slate. It’s hard not to like him to some extent and have some exposure here.

TE – Dawson Knox is the wildcard of the position since he leads the position in touchdowns at eight and he’s sixth in points per game. However, He’s just 16th in receptions and 12th in yards so if you don’t get him into the end zone, he’s not going to be a strong spend at the salary. It’s interesting though because New England has allowed the fewest receptions and yards to the position but in the first game, Knox had multiple drops that cost the Bills. He could have had a big game so I wouldn’t take him totally off the table. 

D/ST – If you want the narrative, Buffalo has to be upset about the Patriots just stuffing the ball right down their throat in the first meeting when New England ran wherever they wanted to. They are still tied for the second-fewest points allowed per game, top-five in total DVOA, and a pressure rate of 28.7%. The good news is that ranks second but the bad news is they only have 27 sacks on the season. They are tied for second in takeaways so I’m still more than fine playing them. 

Cash – Allen, McKenzie, Diggs

GPP –  Singletary, Knox, D/ST, Sanders

Patriots 

QB – It was a tale of two games for Mac Jones last week because, for most of the game, he played like a rookie with questionable skill players. He did warm up to the task though and threw for almost 300 yards and two scores, but it remains to be seen if he’ll throw the ball 45 times again this season. On the year, he’s fourth in true completion rate and leads in pressured completion rate at 63.2%, but that’s where the strong metrics come to an end for fantasy. He’s also 27th in points per dropback, 28th in points per game, 18th in touchdowns, and just 19th in attempts. Buffalo is still second in DVOA against the pass and we could see New England smash mouth the Bills again in this game. 

RB – The fantasy community could not have been more excited for Rhamondre Stevenson to have the patriots backfield mostly to himself Saturday night until he only touched the ball 11 total times. Now, the Pats were down early and they were forced to abandon the run but we saw this Buffalo defense get gouged by the New England run game two weeks ago. The Bills are down to 13th in yards allowed per attempt but I’m not sure I’m totally on board with Stevenson at this point. Perhaps if Damien Harris is out, I can get there but not currently. If they both are active, I may pass because I don’t think Buffalo allows over 200 yards rushing again. 

Update – Stevenson is out so provided Damien Harris is active, he’s going to have all the chances to have a big game if the score stays close.

WR – This will have to be a circle back spot as three receivers are questionable for New England. Jakobi Meyers is the lone wideout that is healthy and is leading the Patriots in target share at 24% and he’s 17th in receptions. He’s always on the fringe of in play but if he’s the last man standing, the calculus changes. 

Update – Kendrick Bourne has cleared protocols, but Nelson Agholor is out. With Meyers sitting in the slot more than anyone on the team, I’d favor him but nobody from this corps is a priority. We have values all over the board and I can’t come of them.

TE – Hunter Henry continues to show why he’s boom or bust and it’s all related to touchdowns. Look at the past four games that don’t include the first Bills game. He’s scored 19.7 and 25.7 while scoring four times in those two games (and facing Indy, the worst team in the league defending tight ends). In the other two games, he’s scored zero times and scored a total of 8.1 DraftKings points. Henry is only 22nd in target share among all tight ends and he’s outside the top 20 in yards and receptions. Buffalo has only allowed three touchdowns on the season so Henry is not the most appealing target when he’s touchdown or bust, but he still has upside in GPP. 

D/ST – New England is a bit tempting at their salary because they are still tied in takeaways with Buffalo and no team allows fewer points on the season. They also rank first in DVOA and this is the second time that Belichick has seen this offense within a couple of weeks. I do think Buffalo throws in some wrinkles but the Patriots are at home and under $3,000, which has to leave them in consideration. 

Cash – Meyers

GPP – Jones, Stevenson, D/ST, Henry 

Buccaneers at Panthers, O/U of 42.5 (Bucs -10)

Buccaneers

QB – I feel pretty comfortable saying Tom Brady will play better than he did Sunday night (not exactly going out on a limb) but I’m not paying this salary for him. The Bucs could potentially be missing their top three receivers and their starting running back for this game and that’s too much to pay the premium for Brady. All of the seasonal metrics still look great but we have to adjust to the new reality of the offense around him. The main goal at this point will be trying to get to the postseason as healthy as they can and we could see the run game pick up some slack here. Normally, Carolina ranking eighth in DVOA against the pass wouldn’t mean anything but Tampa is battered with injuries right now. 

RB – It’s probably a Ronald Jones chalk slate and nothing can go wrong with that. Leonard Fournette is likely to be out this week with a hamstring injury, but Chris Godwin definitively is and Mike Evans seems doubtful. We have a Tampa offense that is missing the top two receivers and lead back in that scenario which means RoJo should be in line for 15 touches or more. He only played 29% of the snaps and he has issues in pass protection. Still, he saw eight rushing attempts and two targets in those limited snaps. Don’t forget as well that Fournette leads the league in targets for a back, so it’s built into the offense that Brady checks to the back often. Jones may not get the same amount of work but he’s $5,100 in an offense that may run more than normal (still at a lower rate than most of the league). Carolina has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to backs and is 10th in yards allowed per attempt. 

WR – At the risk of having too much Tampa Bay, it appears that Antonio Brown is on track to return to the Bucs and we know that Chris Godwin is out for the season. Mike Evans is very questionable this week and that could let AB walk into a massive workload right out of the gate. The fact that he’s under $5,000 could make him the chalk play of the slate as far as receivers go because his ankle is reportedly healed up. On the season, he has a 31.1% target rate and that’s fifth in the league and with the other two receivers. He was only playing 55.6% of the snaps but may be called upon for more this week and we’ll make sure he’s all systems go. Stephon Gilmore has been a part-time player and gotten scorched for 2.23 points per target, so the matchup on some snaps doesn’t matter. 

Update – Evans is officially out

Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller will also be involved but those paths are a little harder to plot. For Johnson, he at least has 42 targets on the season and he’s been in the slot for 25.8% of the snaps compared to seven targets for Miller and about the same slot rate. I’d lean Johnson just because he’s been the number four on the depth chart, but they got smoked Sunday night and were highly unimpressive. It’s likely AB or nothing here for me. 

TE – Rob Gronkowski is coming off what could be argued was his worst game ever, catching just two of 11 targets. He’s going to have to play better than that because of who Tampa is missing this week and DraftKings actually put a fair price on him for a player that should see another 10 targets o more this week. With a full week of prep time without the offensive pieces, I expect Brady and the bunch to be far better than they were last week. Carolina has been strong so far against tight ends but with limited options, Gronk is still going to see plenty of work. Even then, the Panthers have still allowed 66/611 and are missing a bunch of starters on the defensive side of the ball. 

D/ST – The Bucs defense should have a big game here since they are one of the best run defenses in football and seventh in total DVOA. Tampa is tied for the fifth-most sacks, third-most turnovers forced, and 14th in points allowed. However, $4,100 is just a no-fly zone for me and I won’t be playing them. 

Cash – AB, RoJo

GPP – Gronk, Brady, Johnson, Miller, D/ST 

Panthers 

QB – Matt Ruhle says that Cam Newton will start and play a major role but Sam Darnold is going to play as well. Alrighty then. Cam is cheap enough that him not playing every snap is not an automatic disqualifying factor because he still has rushing upside. You’re looking at a player that threw for 156 yards on a 47% completion rate and still scored 24 DraftKings points. However, he’d have to get it done on the ground and still see the red-zone snaps. Cam is under 55% for his completion rate and the Tamp defense is mostly healthy, so this is a big risk if you go that route. If you play him, I’d lean toward not stacking him because his most likely route to 20 DraftKings points is 50+ rushing yards and a score on the ground. 

RB – The duo of Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah remains pretty unappealing. They combined for 12 attempts this past week while Came ran it 15t times on his own and took both red-zone attempts. Sure, Abdullah lucked into the touchdown but we’re still talking just eight touches total. Hubbard had nine total so it’s not like that was much better and despite the beatdown the Bucs just took, the Panthers have not shown much life this season. Even without their skill guys, Tampa is still better and it’s hard to project a script where the backs are used a lot. On top of it, Tampa is still first in rush yards allowed to backs and 12th in yards per carry. You can take a stab at Abdullah in MME because the Bucs are tied for the most receptions allowed to backs, but that feels a little thin. 

WR – As if the Panthers didn’t have enough issues with a QB carousel, D.J. Moore may miss this game with a hammy injury. You could argue that makes Robby Anderson a value but he’s also the same price as AB and one of those receivers actually produces, and it’s not Anderson this season. Moore still has elite metrics that are being beyond sabotaged by his quarterback play with sitting in the top 15 in receptions, yards, unrealized air yards, air yards share, targets, and target share. yet, he’s only 22nd in points per game and would face a lot of Carlton Davis. The expected volume can overcome any matchup issues although Davis has allowed a 114.7 passer rating and a 15.3 YPR. If Moore is a full-go, he’s on the board for GPP but that’s about it. 

TE – There is no tight end of fantasy relevance for Carolina. 

D/ST – Normally this would just be a skip and move on, but with the injuries decimating the skill guys for Tampa….you could talk me into it as they are the cheapest option on the slate. In fairness, they have had their own injury issues and they haven’t cleared five DK points in the past month with only four turnovers forced and nine total sacks. You have to have some guts because it is still Brady on the other side, but if they get you 6-7 you could do worse. They have managed to hang in as the 10th ranked total DVOA on the season. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Moore, D/ST, Abdullah (MME)

Jaguars at Jets, O/U of 41.5 (Pick ‘Em)

Jaguars

QB – I’m not even sure the Jets defense can bait me into playing Trevor Lawrence again. Listen, I still fully believe in him long-term but he has played badly this season and that’s just facts at this point. He’s 35th in yards per attempt, 28th in touchdowns, first in interceptable passes, 34th in points per dropback, and 29th in points per game. Sure, the Jets are dead last in DVOA against the pass and yards per attempt allowed but I just don’t know if I can stomach Lawrence again. He makes sense as a pivot off a chalky back in this offense just like last week but there are 21 other options at the position. 

RB – We might get another heavy dose of James Robinson chalk this week, even though the position is somewhat better than last week. In the first week without Urban Meyer, Robinson touched the ball 21 times. It did help that Carlos Hyde was inactive but the bottom line is now Jacksonville treats him like the number one back that he is. Now he gets to pick on the Jets defense, who just got smoked by *checks notes* ….the 2021 version of DUKE JOHNSON and Myles Gaskin tacked on 54 rushing yards too. New York is 23rd in yards per attempt and only the Texans have allowed more rushing yards to backs. No team has allowed more than 16 rushing touchdowns except the Jets at 21. Don’t galaxy brain this one, Robinson is a strong play. If he approaches 50% in GPP, that’s a different discussion but everything points to him having a second straight strong game. 

WR – Urban Meyer may be gone but for some reason, Laquon Treadwell remained the lead receiver. He led in snaps and saw a whopping nine targets, turning it into 6/57. When that’s the best we can do for receivers, it’s not exactly comforting. Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones are both over 67% of the snaps and with how badly Lawrence is playing, they aren’t super appealing. If Treadwell is going to be the lead receiver, he does have a good matchup against Brandin Echols as he’s allowed 13.5 YPR on the season. Shenault would see Michael Carter in the slot and you can take a shot but these guys are not high on my priority list. 

TE – It’s not the most fun play ever, but James O’Shaughnessy remains on the board as a punt option. He went for 10 DraftKings points last week which certainly won’t kill you and since Week 12 when he came back from the injured reserve, he has a 14.8% target share. It’s a bummer he’s not being utilized near the goal line with zero red-zone targets, but he’s also only $3,200. The Jets are in the bottom 12 in receptions allowed and bottom five in yards allowed to the position. 

D/ST – The offenses and quarterbacks in this game are junk, but I’m not sure Jacksonville has any tangible upside. They are the only team that is not in double-digits in takeaways at seven and are in the bottom five of sacks on the season. I know the Jets are bad, but so are the Jags. I’d rather take a swing at New England under $3,000. 

Cash – Robinson

GPP – Treadwell, O’Shaughnessy, Shenault 

Jets 

QB – Zach Wilson is in the same boat as Lawrence where I think he will be successful long-term (a little less sure about that part) but it’s been a rough year. Wilson is 34th in yards per attempt, 33rd in points per dropback, and 30th in points per game. He’s only found the end zone six times so far which is obviously a large issue. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and 28th in yards per attempt so this is legitimately a mirror situation for both quarterbacks. I really don’t want to get too involved here, even given the matchups for both. 

RB – The Jets coaches said that Michael Carter was ready for his normal workload last week and that turned out to be sort of a lie. He did play 55% of the snaps but had just eight attempts, the same amount as Tevin Coleman. Now the defense for the Jets is Coleman was just far more effective with 50 rushing yards to 18 for Carter, so they may have gone into the game with the plan but Carter didn’t cooperate. Jacksonville doesn’t have the worst run defense ever, as they’re fourth in yards per attempt allowed and they’re just mid-pack in rushing yards despite facing the eighth-most attempts. Seeing last week’s split is uninspiring and I’d still risk Carter in GPP, but large-field only. 

WR – The Jets may be missing Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and now Jamison Crowder in this game. I suppose Braxton Berrios would be a punt option but there is zero safety in that. In Week 14, he saw 10 targets and turned that into 11.2 DraftKings points. Berrios has been in the slot when he’s been on the field, but he’s also only played 31.3% of the snaps and has just 47 targets on the season. Let’s see who’s active before going much further but remember the quality of quarterback play here. 

Update – Crowder is doubtful with no practices all week so Berrios would be the guy to play but it is frightening.

TE – The tight ends for the Jets are without Ryan Griffin but no other player has a target share worth chasing. 

D/ST – Honestly, the thoughts for New York are the exact same for Jacksonville. The Jets are dead last in total DVOA, they only have 12 turnovers forced, and they’ve allowed the most points per game in the league by over three points. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Berrios, Carter

Lions at Falcons, O/U of 43 (Falcons -6)

Lions

QB – Let’s circle back when we know who’s going to be active for the Lions. Jared Goff is in Covid protocols and said he’s showing some symptoms so he may not be able to clear protocols. If he can’t this situation looks way worse despite the great matchup. Atlanta is 30th in DVOA against the pass and 25th in yards per attempt allowed, so there are reasons to think Goff could succeed at his salary. I’m not sure the same could be said for either Tim Boyle or David Blough. Coach Dan Campbell was not committed to either if Goff can’t make it back, making the situation even murkier. 

Update – It appears that Boyle will start. The matchup is great and he’s the cheapest a quarterback can go but you have to be ready for the worst outcome possible to try this play.

RB – It will be interesting to see how the Lions handle the backfield if D’Andre Swift remains out this week. This is the first time on three teams that Craig Reynolds has had more than one carry and he’s turned 37 carries into 195 rushing yards and has caught all three of his targets. Jamaal Williams is off the Covid list so, at a minimum, those two guys should be active for this matchup and it is a juicy one. Atlanta is 15th in yards per attempt and 13th in yards allowed to backs. The odds would certainly be against Reynolds suddenly becoming a serious player on his third team at 25-years old, but the Lions kind of know what they have in Williams. If we get a lean that Reynolds would be the main back, he’d be interesting but Williams would be too if he’s going to be the workhorse. 

Update – Swift has had limited practices all week and could be active, we’ll need to see what the plan is for him when inactive come out. He would be interesting in GPP against an awful Falcons run defense, if we thought he would ge the full workload.

WR – It’s Amon-Ra St.Brown’s world and we just live in it. The rookie has come alive in the past three weeks and has racked up 35 targets for a 34.7% target share. He leads the team in red-zone targets and is averaging over 20 PPR points in that span. He’s still under $6,000 and now he gets the Atlanta secondary and that’s a phenomenal matchup. He’s been in the slot around 66% of the time and that means he’s going to avoid A.J. Terrell which is just another bonus. Josh Reynolds should see Terrell and the Falcons corner has only allowed a 42% catch rate and 1.12 fantasy points per target. St. Brown is the clear favorite here. 

TE – We’ve seen T.J. Hockenson miss the past two games and while Brock Wright has played 65% of the snaps, he’s seen a grand total of six targets for 3/20. That is not going to cut it and I would be getting up to O’Shaughnessy if nothing else. 

D/ST – The Lions have the second-fewest sacks on the season, rank 29th in total DVOA, and 26th in points allowed. Even with the Falcons not being the greatest offense ever, it’s a little tough to say this is a good play. They are cheap enough to take a shot on but they aren’t a primary target here. 

Cash – None

GPP – St. Brown (no Goff hurts), Swift if active, Boyle, D/ST 

Falcons 

QB – Even though it’s a matchup with the Lions, I’m not that excited for Matt Ryan. He hasn’t scored per 15 DraftKings points since Week 9 and there’s not much in the metrics that back him up. He’s 22nd in yards per attempt, 11th in yards, 10th in attempts, but just 28th in points per dropback this year. Ryan is barely holding on to a top 25 spot in points per game and has only thrown 18 touchdowns to this point. Detroit is 26th in DVOA against the pass but we have other upside picks than Ryan so I won’t be looking toward him this week. 

RB – Last week could not have gone much worse for Cordarrelle Patterson with just 4.3 fantasy points and the trend of him not seeing targets continued. However, this is one of these spots where Patterson may not need a lot of targets to get it done for fantasy. Detroit is 17th in yards per attempt and 28th in rushing yards allowed to backs. Even if Patterson just gets 16 carries or more, he could easily pay off this salary. Just be aware since Week 9, they have not been using him in the passing game as much with a 12.7% target share. I wish it was a little higher but he’s still under $7,000 in a fantastic matchup. 

WR – Russell Gage is still the only receiver that I’m really excited to play as he’s on a four-week stretch of 10.4 DK points or more. In that span, Ryan and Gage have clicked more and he has a target share of 29% and leads in red-zone targets. This is more in line with what we thought may have happened when Clavin Ridley took his leave and he’s also still under $6,000. The duo of Gage and St. Brown could make for an interesting mini-stack as they both have good matchups. Gage has been moving around and his slot rate is down to 40.6% and we’re just after the cheap targets here. 

TE – Every week seems like the week that Kyle Pitts can have a massive game but every week, he seems to disappoint. What’s been really killing him is the lack of touchdowns with just one because otherwise, he’s among the elite for tight ends. He’s sixth in receptions, third in yards, third in YPR, ninth in yards per route, fourth in targets, sixth in target share, but he’s just 11th in points per game. The Lions are in the bottom 10 in yards and receptions allowed so Pitts is an option, but he just can’t seem to find the paint and it’s been a frustrating aspect of his season. 

D/ST – Not even the Lions offense can get me to play the Flacons defense, as they rank 31st in total DVOA, have the fewest sacks in the league, and 31st in points allowed. 

Cash – Gage, Patterson 

GPP – Pitts, Ryan 

Chargers at Texans, O/U of 46 (Chargers -10)

Chargers

QB – You can play Justin Herbert in any format on any slate and this week is no different. He’s fourth in yards, third in attempts, fourth in red-zone attempts, seventh, in points per dropback, second in points per game, and 10th in yards per attempt. He also has one of the most aggressive coaches in football and that is a small bonus for his fantasy outlook, especially close to the goal line. Houston is still top 10 in DVOA against the pass but Herbert is at the helm of the seventh-highest scoring offense on the season at 27.1 points. 

RB – There were conflicting reports that Austin Ekeler may have been on the Covid list but it sounds like that is not the case, and my goodness does he look like the prime spend-up option. He was on a pitch count to some extent last week but even though he only played 34% of the snaps, he still had 16 touches and that’s not terribly out of line for him. Ekeler found the end zone again and Houston is 32nd in rush yards allowed to backs and 30th in yards per attempt. They are over 2,100 scrimmage yards allowed and 18 total touchdowns so if Ekeler is full-go, he’s an elite option this week. 

Update – Ekeler is on the Covid list and  Justin Jackson will be one of the highest-rostered player on the slate. Jackson handled 14 touches last week when Ekeler was limited and racked up 99 total scrimmage yards. 

WR – We’re not sure who’s going to be active for LA, but it seems safe to say Keenan Allen will be there since he just came out of the protocols. Mike Williams should be there as well but Jalen Guyton is in the protocol and that consolidates even more targets for Williams and Allen. For Allen, he’s sixth in targets, 11th in target share, fifth in receptions, 10th in yards, and eighth in points per game. He’s going to face Desmond King for some of the game and King has taken a step back with a 67.9% catch rate allowed and 13.1 YPR. Williams…well, Williams has been much harder to peg down with results all over the place. He’s 16th in targets and 13th in yards, but you just have to be aware of the volatility involved. If Guyton is out, Josh Palmer could be worth a punt in hopes of the lightning strike touchdown, but we’d need to know that Guyton is out. 

Update – Not only are the Chargers missing Ekeler, but now Williams is out as well. Jaylon Guyton has yet to clear protocols at this point and if both are missing, Josh Palmer is the premier punt at the position. Williams and Ekeler both have target shares of at least 14.9% and these two would be the focal point of the passing game.

TE – There is a possibility that Donald Parham could miss after suffering a scary-looking concussion last week and if that’s the case, Jared Cook could be the most popular cheap option on the board. He saw seven targets last week and while it didn’t turn into much on the stat sheet, he flubbed an easy touchdown that would have changed the calculus. The matchup is solid and we’ll have to see what the week brings for Parham, who is thankfully doing alright. 

D/ST – The Chargers are a little pricey and I’ve said for weeks they have a lot of talent for not the most fantasy production. They only have 30 sacks, they do have 20 takeaways, and they rank 24th in total DVOA. On top of that, they’re 24th in points allowed to I want to see how their injuries stack up this week before making a call. 

Cash – Jackson, Allen, Herbert

GPP – Palmer (pending Guyton could even be cash), Cook

Texans

QB – Davis Mills is not playing that poorly for fantasy outside of his first couple of starts. He should have to throw a lot in this one and he might be the garbage-time hero of the week. The completion rate is over 65% and he’s scored over 15 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. The Chargers are 12th in DVOA against the pass but they’ve really been battling injuries lately in the secondary so that will be worth keeping an eye on. Mills can’t be played in anything outside of large-field GPP, but he has a 4-5x ceiling in this game if the Chargers are scoring a bunch. 

RB – I simply can’t stomach trying to play Rex Burkhead this week even though he is the man in the backfield with another 17 touches. He’s facing one of the worst run defenses in football as the Chargers are 28th in yards per attempt allowed and 29th in rushing yards allowed to backs. The issue is going to be how long the Texans can stay in this one and the fact that Burkhead just isn’t any good. He’s not even averaging three yards per carry so even at a minimal salary, I’m not likely going to fall into this trap. 

WR – Another situation we need some clarity on is the Houston receiver room. Brandin Cooks is in protocols but has not been ruled out at this point so he still has a chance to make the game. If he does, Cooks is top 15 in receptions, yards, air yards share, targets, target share, and 19th in points per game. He would face Chris Harris and that has been a challenge for receivers. Harris has allowed just a 55.6% catch rate, 75.7 passer rating, and 1.21 points per target. Cooks would have a big effect on the rest of the crew including Nico Collins and Chris Conley so we’ll update things when we know. 

Update – Cooks is out but the Chargers also got AsanteSamuel back in the secondary. I know we’re all ready for the Collins breakout, and I’m not saying you can’t play him. I’d rather play McKenzie, Palmer, and others but you are welcome to go after Collins.

TE – It looked like Brevin Jordan was starting to take over the position to some extent until he didn’t record a snap last week despite being active. It could have been a hand injury that limited him in practice all week but it’s still disturbing that he dressed. No team has allowed more touchdowns than the Chargers, but let’s see what happens during the wee. Jordan Akins could be appealing as well but he’s been inactive at some points this season as well. 

D/ST – Houston has been feisty in some games on defense this year but I’m not going after Herbert and the Chargers. They are 17th in total DVOA but they’ve allowed the fourth-most points per game and have under 30 sacks. 

Cash – None

GPP – Collins, Conley

Ravens at Bengals, O/U of 45 (Bengals -3)

Ravens

QB – Lamar Jackson has yet to practice since his ankle injury and Tyler Huntley could be in the line for another start. He was phenomenal in the last game with four total touchdowns and 73 rushing yards. Now, I’m not expecting him to score 35 DraftKings points again but he’s still only $6,000 and there is legitimate 4x potential here. He played the exact role of Jackson with the rushing attempts and has hit at least 40 rushing yards in each of his three starts so far. Cincy is just 17th in DVOA against the pass and Huntley would be very affordable for his upside. 

Update – Huntley and Lamar are both going to be out for this game, leaving Josh Jackson as the only quarterback on the roster. That is not great.

RB – After weeks of leading the backfield, Devonta Freeman took a moderate backseat to Latavius Murray with one less carry but Baltimore was in a negative script for much of the day. The passing game was the forefront and Freeman did still have 55% of the snaps and both red-zone attempts from a back, so it may not have been as bad as it appeared. This game shouldn’t be quite as bad but the Ravens secondary still has serious issues and that could force the Ravens to pass more than they want. Cincinnati is 11th in yards per attempt allowed and they have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards to backs. With a sudden split in workload, I’m not sure this is an active situation I want to chase. 

WR – With a week to game plan, Marquise Brown was a heavy favorite of Huntley and that was slightly surprising based on the week before. The bad news is Brown only generated 43 yards on 14 targets (10 receptions) and scored 14.3 DraftKings points. He is 10th in target share, targets, 11th in receptions, and he’s 13th in points per game. Baltimore isn’t likely to attempt 40 passes again but Brown has dipped under $6,000 and he faces Eli Apple, who has allowed 13.0 YPR. There is an upside at this salary for Brown. I like Rashod Bateman last week and he utterly flopped and that’s been too much of a pattern lately. Outside of the Huntley relief game, he’s only seen 13 targets in the last four games. 

TE – I liked Mark Andrews last week but I had no idea that he’d go ballistic in that fashion. Huntley loved him and Andrews came close to 40 DraftKings points, resulting in a $7,000 salary. He’s now first in receptions, yards, deep targets, and he’s second in points per game, targets, and target share. Cincinnati is in the bottom 10 in both yards and receptions allowed to the position and Andrews sure looks like a great option on this slate. 

D/ST – Baltimore is just too beat up for me to really consider. I do think there’s a sliver of hope that they can rack up enough sacks but they are under 30 and the back end of the defense is a liability right now. Cincinnati does lead in sacks allowed but $3,100 could be too expensive for 2-3 DraftKings points in return. 

Cash – None

GPP – Andrews, Brown, Freeman, Murray

Bengals 

QB – The Baltimore defense is down to 29th in DVOA against the pass and 30th in yards allowed per attempt. Joe Burrow ranks third in yards per attempt and eighth in yards, so this is a very solid matchup for him. Burrow is only 15th in attempts but he’s ninth in points per dropback and 12th in points per game. Despite ranking so high in yards per attempt, he’s also fourth in true completion rate. Given the issues that Baltimore is having with injuries and the price tag of $5,900 on DraftKings, he’s going to be very hard to ignore on this slate. 

RB – Joe Mixon has been total feast or famine in the past six weeks and the famine has come in a major way in the past three weeks. It’s still hard to not go back to him under $7,000 with the work he’s getting because he’s not been under 18 touches in any of them. Baltimore is still strong against the run at sixth in yards per attempt allowed and the sixth-fewest rush yards allowed to backs. That’s tough to really say we need to play him but I can’t take him off the board either. He’s still very talented and at least for now, it appears his ankle injury is not going to be an issue. 

WR – He’s not going to come cheap but if there is ever a spot for Ja’Marr Chase to bounce back, this is it. Baltimore is getting gouged through the air and handing out 20-yard plays like they’re Christmas cookies, and that is in the wheelhouse for Chase. He’s seventh in yards, ninth in air yards share, sixth in yards per reception, and 12th in yards per route. The secondary is almost all questionable right now so the matchup isn’t set but it’s also not relevant. Chase is in line for a big game if Burrow has the time to find him, as is Tee Higgins. He also got shut down in Denver but he’s still leading the Bengals in target share at 24.4% and he’s right behind Chase in red-zone and end zone targets. Everyone is in play including Tyler Boyd, who was the lone receiver that played well last week. Just realize both Chase and Higgins did nothing for Boyd to rack up the points, so I still favor the previous two. 

TE – The Ravens have been scorched by good tight ends, but C.J. Uzomah doesn’t quite rate as one. That’s not to insult the talent level but he’s not utilized much in the Bengals offense. He’s 28th in target share among tight ends and barely inside the top 20 in yards and receptions. 

D/ST – It’s still surprising that the Bengals are third in sacks on the season and 11th in total DVOA. They are also top 12 in points allowed and are at a reasonable salary. If they get home enough, they can pay off the salary even if they allow some points but I think they’ll be reserved for GPP. 

Update – They are cash viable with Huntley and Lamar out.

Cash – Higgins, Burrow, D/ST

GPP – Chase, Mixon, Boyd 

Bears at Seahawks, O/U 43 (Seahawks -6.5)

Bears

QB – If you want to load up on every skill position, Justin Fields is well in play. In the last three starts that he’s been able to finish, he’s scored at least 17.9 DraftKings points and has rushed for at least 35 yards. Seattle is 28th in DVOA against the pass, they’re 24th in completion rate allowed, and 24th in yards per attempt allowed. I wouldn’t recommend actually watching the Bears offense exactly, but Fields is at least doing enough for fantasy at this salary. He’s going to have some bad spots in this game but the good is starting to outweigh the bad. 

Update – For reasons not known yet, Nick Foles is starting. That hurts Kmet as well, sadly.

RB – The offense may be terrible but David Montgomery is going to get touches if the game is close. Monday night never got further than two scores and he had 23 touches and Fields is starting to target him more with seven and six in the past two games. That is a major workload for a back under $6,000 that is in a good spot. Seattle is in the bottom 12 of the league in DVOA and you just have to have faith in the Bears offense, which isn’t a totally fun place to be. 

WR – I’m not likely diving too deep into the Bears receivers since Allen Robinson should be back but he’s been so bad that I’m not looking to play him. Darnell Mooney is the main player I’d be looking at and since Week 10 (Robinson has just one game played in this span), Mooney has a 24.2% target share and a 32.4% air yards share. He easily leads in PPR points at 62.3 and should face mostly Ugo Amadi, who’s allowed a 67.6% catch rate and 1.46 points per reception. If Robinson were to be out for any reason, we could talk about Damiere Byrd but we shouldn’t expect that at this point. 

TE – While I do like O’Shaughnessy, Cole Kmet is another prime pun target and he’s my favorite on the board. The chemistry between him and Fields grows with each passing week and it culminated with nine targets last week for a 6/71 line. In the last three games Fields has started and finished, Kmet has nine, five, and eight targets. Kmet is coming toward the end of his second year and appears to be starting to understand the league better and Fields is showing signs of promise (along with some head-scratching plays). Seattle is in the bottom 12 in yards and receptions allowed to tight ends along with eight touchdowns, so there is tangible upside with Kmet in this spot at a very cheap price. 

D/ST – Let’s see who’s active but the way the Seahawks are playing, they could be a very strong option. I don’t want to play them if they’re missing all the bodies they were last week. 

Cash – Montgomery

GPP – Mooney, Kmet

Seahawks

QB – I suppose if Tyler Lockett makes it back to the lineup, I could be interested in Russell Wilson but the Seahawks look like a team that needs to totally blow it up and Wilson is playing just terrible football right now. He has not cleared 21.2 DraftKings points once since he came back in Week 10 and he has three games of just utter disaster of under nine DK. While he’s missed time, Russ is still 25th in true completion rate, 16th in points per game, and just 12th in points per dropback. If Chicago is missing their whole secondary again, that would help but they’re 22nd in DVOA against the pass and I would legitimately rather play Huntley or Burrow. 

RB – Just when it looked like Rashaad Penny was in the driver seat for the lead back role, he managed only 44 scrimmage yards on 13 touches while DeeJay Dallas racked up 52 yards on 11 touches. Dallas also had an advantage in snaps but Alex Collins was missing from this mix last game, which is an important factor. If all three are active this week, it’s going to be difficult to tell which one will be the most fantasy-relevant before the game is actually played and it’s likely a situation to avoid. Even in this last game, Penny and Dallas were about the only backs active and they still split heavily. 

WR – Tyler Lockett is off the Covid list and he would be a primary target in the Seahawks passing game. Even though Wilson has been utterly terrible lately, Lockett has been unaffected with at least 12.6 DraftKings points in the past month. Since Wilson has come back to last week, Lockett has a 43.1% air yards share and is playing only 28% of his snaps in the slot. That could leave D.K. Metcalf on Jaylon Johnson (if active) and Lockett could be in line for another big game. While Lockett has flourished, Metcalf has been struggling badly with no one game over 11 DraftKings points with Lockett in. I’d heavily lean Lockett here and only use Metcalf in MME. 

TE – Gerald Everett managed just 10 DK points while Lockett was out and I can’t bank on him doing more than that if he’s back. His target share is just 14.8% on the season and he’s 19th in receptions and 24th in yards. With only three scores, it’s difficult to back him as a play when we have other solid options in this range. 

D/ST – It’s a Matt Nagy offense so the Seahawks are in play, although they aren’t a good defense. They have just 25 sacks and are 25th in DVOA but Fields is fourth in sacks on the season despite playing in just 12 games and starting 10. The turnovers are also a potential game breaker for Seattle. 

Cash – Lockett

GPP – Russ, Metcalf, D/ST

Steelers at Chiefs, O/U of 45 (Chiefs -8.5)

Steelers

QB – It kind of figures that the first time I jump on playing Ben Roethlisberger, he completely flops in a solid spot. He’s going to have to throw a whole bunch in this game but he’s already 10th in attempts and just 27th in yards per attempt, which is not a great combo. Big Ben is just 30th in points per dropback and the Chiefs defense has played better since lineman Chris Jones moved back to the interior. That is really scary for me because the offensive line is not good for Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger can’t move like he used to. With Big Ben just 23rd in points per game, I’m not sure I need to go in this direction. 

RB – It was a major bump in the road for Najee Harris last week as he had arguably one of his worst games this season. He only had 14 touches so that’s tough to get much going but the 18 yards on 12 carries was especially appalling. This is a relatively solid bounce-back spot though because the Chiefs are 29th in yards per attempt and also 31st in receptions allowed and 30th in receiving yards. Harris is second in the league among backs in targets, first in routes, and second in receptions. With the Steelers likely to trail, he has a lot of potential to pay off his salary and could be a great pivot off Ekeler or Cook at the high end of salary. 

WR – Chase Claypool played 63% of the snaps last week but he was largely ignored with only two targets and even though the Steelers may pass a lot, this doesn’t read as the best spot for him. The offensive line might struggle with the KC front and the team-leading 12.1 aDOT doesn’t compute. Instead, back to Diontae Johnson we go as he sits eighth in receptions, yards, he’s third in target share, fourth in targets, and sixth in points per game. If Charvarius Ward winds up on Claypool, Johnson could see an easier path against a mix of L’Jarius Sneed (although he’s in the slot a good bit) and Mike Hughes. The secondary is a bit unsettled right now since Rashad Fenton is out and I expect there to be a rotation of coverage on Johnson. 

TE – Any interest in this position for Pittsburgh depends on if Pat Freiermuth can get out of concussion protocol for this game. He took a nasty hit last week and did not return, so that seems dicey. We would expect the Chiefs to be scoring a lot so Pittsburgh should be throwing in return and they’re in the bottom half of the league in yards and receptions allowed. Freiermuth continues to be a vital part of the Pittsburgh offense with a 15.6% target share since Week 6. No tight end has more red-zone targets than him so he’s always a threat to find the paint on top of it. 

D/ST – If the Chiefs are missing offensive playmakers, I’ll be much more willing to take a chance. If everyone on that side is active, I don’t trust the coverage to hold up long enough for the pass rush to get there, although they are second in sacks with 41. However, the 20th ranked total DVOA isn’t the most reassuring in Kansas City. 

Cash – Harris, Johnson

GPP – Claypool

Chiefs 

QB – Pittsburgh has managed to get to ninth in DVOA against the pass but the secondary is still not great and Patrick Mahomes has huge upside here. The Chiefs offense hasn’t always been at their best this year but Mahomes is still fifth in yards, second in attempts, sixth in red-zone attempts, 10th in fantasy points per dropback and sixth in points per game. He’s still thrown 30 touchdowns and Pittsburgh is 20th in yards allowed per attempt. 

RB – I’ve not advocated for Clyde Edwards-Helaire often this year but this week is different because the Steelers have one of the worst run defenses in football and they’ll struggle to put up points on any given week. That’s a very bad mix facing the Chiefs and Pittsburgh is dead last in yards per attempt allowed, in the bottom five of rushing yards allowed to backs, and rank 30th in DVOA against the run. CEH still had 11 touches last week to five for Darrel Williams so he is the lead back, even if the efficiency has not been there for much of the season. 

WR – The Chiefs are dealing with a Covid issue among the team and Tyreek Hill is one of the biggest names and it’s unclear if he’s going to be active in this game. Until we know him (and the next player’s status), it’s nearly impossible to break down the situation. We’ll double back but I’m not impressed with the Steelers secondary and corner Joe Haden played under 35% of the snaps last week in his return. If he’s not up to full speed, the Steelers are in trouble. That’s likely true even if he is full go. 

Update – Hill is off the Covid list, giddy-up.

TE – It appears that Travis Kelce has a chance to be cleared for this game but he is currently in the Covid protocol, just like Hill. Assuming he can get out in time, he’s set up for another big game. The Steelers linebackers are atrocious in coverage and have exactly zero chance to hang with Kelce with any routes over the middle. They could try and counter with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick but he will find himself on linebackers enough to justify the price tag. You can’t expect a historic game for tight end fantasy scoring again, but Kelce is back to second in yards, receptions, YAC, and fourth in points per game. He’s an elite option. 

Update – Kelce has been activated but has not cleared protocols yet.

D/ST – Of the expensive options, the Chiefs might be my favorite if Chris Jones is active. Once he went back to the inside of the defense and ex-Steeler Melvin Ingram was brought on board, the Chiefs defense went on a run and they had a six-week stretch where they were very fantasy relevant. The seasonal stats don’t reflect their improvement yet. 

Cash – Hill, Mahomes, Kelce if active

GPP – CEH, D/ST

Broncos at Raiders, O/U of 41 (Broncos -1)

Broncos

QB – I will not willingly play Drew Lock when Fields is $100 more expensive. Lock has never shown any real competence in the NFL and despite a talented crew around him, he’s just not a strong quarterback. He’s 8-10 in his career with a completion rate under 59% with 24 touchdowns to 20 interceptions. I’ll pass on that especially since Denver has a pair of solid-to-great running backs. 

RB – I fully expect the split between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon to continue and they both have a strong matchup, even if their quarterback is scary. Now, one notable facet is Williams had a clear advantage in snaps which hasn’t happened often. He was at 58.7% while Gordon was at 41.3% so even though the carries were the same, the snaps were decidedly not. Williams also had the target advantage of 4-1 so if Denver starts to use him as the head of a split backfield, that does raise the interest. They may not say that out loud so there would still be risk involved and Williams isn’t exactly cheap anymore. Vegas is 13th in DVOA against the run and 17th in yards per attempt, so it’s just an average matchup. 

WR – With Lock being one of the worst quarterbacks on the slate, we need to be careful here. I’m not particularly interested in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, or Tim Patrick. Jeudy is coming off a goose egg, Sutton hasn’t cleared six DK points since Week 7, and Patrick only scored a touchdown last week to do much of anything. In fairness, Patrick would likely have the most chemistry with Lock as the number three option and he’s mostly on the boundary which will leave him on Brandon Facyson. The Raiders corner has allowed a 60.4% catch rate and 108.2 passer rating so Patrick could be sneaky, but not much else for me. 

TE – Another week and another average box score for Noah Fant, which is normal for him. The Broncos offense continues to be crowded and submarined by average at best quarterback play, regardless of who’s under center. Fant is fine for cash in some regards but he’s never popular enough to play and his ceiling has been non-existent. Some may point to his lone big game of 24.7 DraftKings points coming against these Raiders but don’t forget, Jeudy was still inactive at that point. Fant is 12th in points per game and has found the paint just three times with a target share of 18.3%. Vegas is in the bottom five in yards and receptions allowed with the third-most touchdowns but it’s a leap of faith for Fant to score anything over 10-12 DraftKings points. 

D/ST – The Broncos are pretty cheap for a team with a 26.1% pressure rate and 33 sacks to go along with tied for second in points allowed. The 20th ranked total DVOA isn’t great but a lot of other facets for Denver do look strong, to the point where the salary is appealing. It does depend on the health of the Raiders offense but they are on my radar. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Williams, Gordon, Patrick, Fant 

Raiders 

QB – In the three full games without Darren Waller, Derek Carr has been awful for fantasy and it’s hard to not believe those two things aren’t linked. He’s not cleared 263 yards and he’s thrown just two touchdowns against two interceptions. The 20-yard plays have disappeared and Denver is 20th in DVOA but 11th in yards per attempt allowed. Waller’s availability has a lot to do with any interest in Carr this week. 

RB – I continue to not mind Josh Jacobs because his salary is reasonable and he’s getting more work in the receiving game, but he won’t be a primary target on this slate. Denver has been a mixed bag because they’re 25th in DVOA against the run but have only given up eight total touchdowns to the position. That’s really held the points scored in check, but that also means they’ve gotten a little lucky. Jacobs is only 24th in red-zone touches but has 2.5 per game. It’s just a very average set of metrics and matchup, making him a target I’m not excited about. 

WR – This is not a good spot as Denver was just able to mostly shut down the Bengals passing game but they were hurt out of the slot. That leads us to Hunter Renfrow, who is still in the slot 65.1% of the time. Kyle Fuller has manned the slot lately and has only allowed a 57.7% catch rate but has also allowed a 101.4 passer rating and a 13.3 YPR. Before last week, Renfrow had a three-game span where he racked up 33 targets and one of the only ways to move the ball for Vegas is Renfrow. I’m not playing him in cash but for GPP, he’s one of the few players in this game that has any appeal. 

TE – It doesn’t seem likely that Darren Waller could come back this week and that could leave Foster Moreau as the lone option. He’s scored under five DraftKings points in two of his three starts without Waller so there are plenty of risks, even at the salary. I would rather play Kmet even though Moreau has a target share of 15.7% in the past three weeks. It’s just heavily concentrated on one game and the risk feels higher with him. 

D/ST – Vegas might be 26th in total DVOA and 30th in points allowed but I’m still tempted with Lock at the helm of Denver’s offense. They have a pressure rate over 25% but only have 29 sacks, in the bottom 10 of the league. Really, the issue comes from deciding on taking a chance on a bad defense in a good matchup like Vegas or a great defense in a bad matchup like the Patriots. I’ll lean toward New England in that decision. 

Cash – None 

GPP – Renfrow, Jacobs

Cash Core

Antonio Brown, James Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jackson

GPP Core

Ja’Marr Chase, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders, Odell Beckham

Stacks

Rams/Vikings – See Stix’s GPP Article

Steelers/Chiefs – Mahomes, Hill, CEH, Kelce – Run Backs –Diontae, Harris, Claypool

This really seems like a week for team stacks more than full game stacks

Chargers – Herbert, Allen, Jackson, Palmer, Cook

Bengals – Burrow/Chase (love this stack), Higgins, Boyd. It’s harder to run this back now with Huntley and Lamar out

Seahawks – Russ, Lockett, Metcalf, preferred run back would be Mooney

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.