Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 10
We are back in action for a 12 game slate this week and it has one of the most appealing fantasy games we’ve seen all season long. It’s going to be the most popular game on the slate and justifiably so and every lineup needs exposure to Dallas and Kansas City. Let’s talk about the mother of late hammers and every other game in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 10 to find some green screens!
Texans at Titans, O/U of 44.5 (Titans -9.5)
Texans
QB – I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted here with Tyrod Taylor. Yes, last game we saw him he was an abject disaster with three interceptions but his price is still too low for his potential. After all, he flirted with 24 DraftKings points in Week 1 and had 16 against Cleveland in under one-half of football. The 0.53 fantasy points per dropback are more than fine at this salary and he has 5.7 red-zone attempts per game so far. For context, Patrick Mahomes is third and he’s at 6.3 per game. Tennessee is ninth in DVOA against the pass and 12th in yards per attempt allowed. He can’t be trusted in cash but he’s in my player pool for GPP.
RB – The Houston backfield is still a fantasy nightmare even after the Mark Ingram trade and are splitting the touches between all three of Phillip Lindsay, David Johnson, and Rex Burkhead. None of that trio played more than 44% of the snaps and Lindsay led in touches at eight. That’s nothing we need to chase and Houston has been this way for the entire season.
WR – On a bigger slate, I’m not going to mess around with the secondary options on Houston and if I play anyone, Brandin Cooks is the guy. If he draws Janoris Jenkins, Cooks may go totally bonkers because Jenkins is the piece of toast that you forget in the toaster and it comes out like a piece of charcoal. Jenkins has allowed a 112.8 passer rating and 1.89 FPPT. Kristian Fulton would at least have a chance as he’s only allowed a 48% catch rate but he’s also allowed 15.3 YPR. Even then, Cooks has a 29.7% target share and 44% air yards share, fourth and first in the league. He’s still top-six in receptions and top 15 in yards even with his bye and he has big potential at the salary.
Update – Jenkins did not practice all week and is questionable, while pass rusher Bud Dupree is out. I’m growing to like Cooks more and more.
TE – Much like a lot of the Houston team, this situation remains a mess and only Jordan Akins has a target share above 10%. Even then, he has all of four red-zone targets and it’s just not worth the floor to risk such a small reward.
D/ST – I’m honestly slightly tempted here to just punt with the Texans. It sounds dumb but they do have 14 turnovers and 19 sacks, which could be a lo worse for the minimum salary. The pressure rate is scary at just 20.4% but you need so little that I don’t think it’s the worst play you can make at the position. The Titans are tied for the most sacks allowed and are down their star running back, among others.
Cash – Cooks, maybe D/ST as a punt but you’d have to love everything else
GPP – Tyrod
Titans
QB – I’m not a fan of the salary because, at this point, we have to square ourselves with how Ryan Tannehill has performed this year. He’s 10th in red-zone attempts, 12th in yards per attempt, 16th in fantasy points per drop back but he’s only 25th in deep attempts so far. The 12 passing touchdowns are just 19th in the league so far and even though Houston is 28th in yards allowed per attempt, the salary is a lot to ask. Getting to Mahomes or Dak Prescott in the late game is only $900 or $500 more and that’s too appealing to get 18-20 DraftKings points from a $6,700 Tannehill in my eyes.
RB – The Titans aren’t in much of a different spot than the Texans without Derrick Henry. Through two weeks, they have split the work between Jeremy McNichols, D’Onta Foreman, and Adrian Peterson. None of those three have played more than 35% of the snaps and Foreman and Peterson have 16 and 18 carries in that amount of time. McNichols has held the advantage in receiving work with four receptions and six targets but it’s very difficult to get behind anyone as a play here. If there is a play, it could be Foreman because he had 13 touches this past week. and generated 78 scrimmage yards. In a matchup against the Texans who have allowed the second-most rushing yards, 13 touches could work out under $5,000.
Update – McNichols is out which should consolidate the touches between Foreman and Peterson. However, we have other values that leaves Foreman on the back burner in my eyes.
WR – I won’t say A.J. Brown’s poor game was totally predictable because I thought he’d do more than what he did, but I’m happy the salary kept me away from him. The salary didn’t move much and Brown has had a pretty tough season to this point. He’s still under 45 receptions, under 575 yards, and has only scored three times. It could speak to just how well ex-coordinator Arthur Smith had this offense humming. Regardless, Brown continues to be without Julio Jones (woof. That deal looks pretty rough) so Brown has very little competition for targets. He’s sixth in air yards share, ninth in yards per route, and sixth in target rate. There is so much that lines up for him in the metrics that just hasn’t worked out. A matchup against Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King could snap him away as both corners allow a passer rating over 109 and a 1.75 FPPT. Brown moves and plays 23.9% of his snaps in the slot and there is a massive game lurking.
TE – Much like the Houston side, the Titans have three tight ends splitting targets which is terrible for fantasy. None of Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt have more than 25 total targets. Swaim does lead the gross bunch but 25 and five red-zone looks in Week 11 is not what we need to chase.
Update – Swaim is out but I’m still not that interested here.
D/ST – Tennessee has been playing well and they’ve gotten home to the quarterback 27 times, tied for the third-most in the league. They have also forced 14 turnovers but we all know by now my disdain for playing the highest-priced defense on the slate. Tennessee is fine but I won’t play them myself.
Cash – None
GPP – Brown, Tannehill, Foreman (gross)
Colts at Bills, O/U of 50 (Bills -7)
Colts
QB – We’ve been playing Carson Wentz in the past few weeks but this week is not a good spot to keep it going. Really, it has nothing to do with his score form last week which was awful but more to do with Buffalo ranking first in DVOA against the pass, first in yards per attempt allowed, and they have given up just six passing touchdowns. SIX in nine games. The next lowest team is Jacksonville (funny enough since Wentz played them last week) at 11. Going on the road into the lion’s den is not where I’m looking to play Wentz, even at his salary.
RB – It looked like Jonathan Taylor was going to totally break the slate in the first quarter last week, but he stalled out after the first and finished with 116 yards rushing. Of course, nobody complained about 27.6 DraftKings points but he was very much held in check for a significant portion of the game. There is some strong potential that could happen this week because Buffalo is one of the better defenses in the league this year. They’ve allowed the third-fewest yards on the ground and are third-bets in terms of yards per carry allowed. Taylor is getting loaded up with touches with at least 19 in each of the past four games but the matchup is not kind. Given the state of the running backs this week, he will not be a priority for me but if he’s under 5% rostered, the GPP appeal is still there.
WR – There aren’t always a lot of defenses and individual matchups that I avoid, but Buffalo is likely one of them. Michael Pittman has been excellent this season and is in the top 10 in yards, receptions, and routes but Buffalo is number one almost across the boards defensively. The duo of Tre White and Levi Wallace has been outstanding and neither has allowed a passer rating over 81.6 or an FPPT over 1.32. That is not the spot we want to get after, despite liking Pittman. He’s only played 12% of his snaps in the slot as well. Zach Pascal has been the slot receiver but even then, Taron Johnson is under a 46% catch rate allowed in 37 targets.
TE – There will be some tight ends we can play coming up but Jack Doyle or Mo Alie-Cox is not one of them. The target shares are almost identical at 8.5% and they have split 11 red-zone targets 6-5 with Doyle in the lead. That’s just not enough at this juncture.
D/ST – If you believe they are just a ball-hawking defense and can force turnovers, the Colts normally aren’t this cheap. They are second in turnovers, have sacked the quarterback 22 times, and are in the top half of the league in points allowed. Buffalo has only allowed 14 sacks so the matchup is obviously very bad but it could be a crazy GPP play with a very low floor.
Cash – None
GPP – D/ST, Taylor, Pittman
Bills
QB – On the flip side of the quarterback matchup, I’ll be fascinated to see how popular Josh Allen is this week. I feel like most of the attention will go to Dallas/KC and I get it. However, the Colts have given up the most touchdown passes, are 23rd in yards per attempt allowed, and are 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Allen is sixth in attempts, fifth in yards, first in air yards, third in deep completion, and sixth in touchdown passes. His ceiling is no different than anyone else’s so if he’s going to be sub-8% or something like that, he would stand out as an elite pivot to chalk.
RB – Casting aside the Matt Breida weird variant game of two touchdowns on six touches, this is not likely to be the spot that I want to play Zack Moss or Devin Singletary. The running back targets aren’t many to start with and Breida saw three of them last week but Indy has been much better against the run. They have allowed the fourth-fewest yards among teams that have played 10 games and they rank 16th in yards per carry allowed. Moss and Singletary already split work, which caps the ceiling in general. The Colts defense ranks second in DVOA against the run and they can be attacked through the air, so I’m not expecting much from either Moss or Singletary here.
WR – We finally got the game from Stefon Diggs that we’ve been waiting for as he went off for 30+ DraftKings points. He may well do it again and we’ve talked all year about how he looked great in the metrics. Well, now he’s ninth in receptions, seventh in yards, still 10th in unrealized air yards and eighth in deep targets. Xavier Rhodes has been in and out of the lineup and boasts a 131 passer rating allowed and Rock Ya-Sin doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Diggs. Barring weather issues, he’s an elite play in any format.
Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley remain a little difficult to project each week. The return of the tight end seemingly had a negative effect on Beasley with just two targets last week, although Diggs did so much it really didn’t leave anything else. Sanders was a little banged up last week and only saw two targets as well, although he continues to be the higher value as the deep threat. The pecking order for DFS remains Diggs, Sanders, and then Beasley.
Update – Rhodes is out for Indy, and lineman DeForest Buckner is questionable. That’s a big piece of the Colts defense so that needs to be monitored before lock Sunday morning.
TE – Dawson Knox was enjoying a great season but he came back down to Earth last week in his first game back from injury. The hand wasn’t an issue for him because he played 84.5% of the snaps but drew just one target. It’s a stark reminder that he had just an 11.3% target share and the five touchdowns were a big help towards his ranking among tight ends. Indy has struggled to defend the position with the sixth-most yards allowed, tied for the second-most receptions, and six touchdowns. Knox is second in touchdowns but also is 26th in target share and 23rd in air yards share. I would reserve him for Buffalo stacks only.
D/ST – Buffalo is also a bit cheaper than we’re accustomed to and that has some interest as well. They have the second-highest pressure rate, are at home, and allow the fewest points per game in the league. That’s not even mentioning they lead the league in takeaways so the Colts could run into some issues in this one, even though Wentz has only been sacked 18 times.
Cash – Allen, Diggs, D/ST
GPP – Sanders, Knox, Beasley, Moss
Saints at Eagles, O/U of 43 (Eagles -2)
Saints
QB – Trevor Siemian is …playing well? That may not seem right but he’s thrown at least 34 passes in both of his parts and has thrown two touchdown passes in each as well. He’s been rusted when it’s mattered most as well with 7.3 red-zone attempts and he just missed 20 DraftKings points last week. I’m not sure we should buy into what he’s shown us so far but coach Sean Payton is a great offensive mind. He’s gotten the most out of the veteran and Philly is just 18th in DVOA against the pass while ranking 17th in yards per attempt. It’s probably not a play I’m making but he’s played better than I assumed when he was named the starter.
RB – We’ll see if Alvin Kamara can make it back for this game but if he can’t Mark Ingram would look fine since he handled 18 touches in the past game. The salary didn’t come up very much and Philly has allowed the most rushing yards to backs among teams that have played 10 games. The yards per carry allowed isn’t terrible at seventh but Ingram getting basically every running back touch at $5,400, it’s hard to ignore that. If Kamara is back, he’s still at a very affordable salary. He’s still fifth in carries on the season and he has a 20% target share on top of that.
Update – Kamara is out, which puts Ingram squarely in play in every format. The Saints did activate Tony Jones so Ingram may not get as many touches, but the salary still makes too much sense and he’ll still receive the bulk of the work.
WR – Typically unless the receiver is a great-to-elite option, I tend to not mess with facing Eagles corner Darius Slay. I don’t count Marquez Callaway among the elite (I know, really hot take there) and he doesn’t play much in the slot. Staying on the boundary raises the odds he faces some of Slay, who has only allowed 269 yards on 40 targets. Instead, Tre’Quan Smith has my attention. He’s had a 44% slot rate in his four games and is coming off a game where he saw seven targets. With Kamara still looking iffy, Ingram isn’t as big of a threat in the receiving game and that helps boost Smith as well. He co-leads in red-zone targets with five in four weeks and he’s very cheap.
TE – In the last three games where Siemian has played almost all of the snaps, Adam Trautman has become a much more consistent part of the offense. His 19 targets in that span are tied for the team lead and the red-zone targets are second at four. The DraftKings points haven’t been spectacular but 8.2 and 8.7 isn’t the worst-case scenario at the salary. He’s more interesting because of the matchup because the Eagles have allowed the most yards, receptions, and touchdowns against the position. If he’s the key to unlocking an extra piece to the Chiefs game, I am very on board here.
D/ST – The Saints are of particular interest because they are under $3,000 and they boast one of the better run defenses in football. That can allow them to force the Eagles to pass, which may not end well for Philly. New Orleans is sixth in total DVOA and has a pressure rate of over 24% on the season, to go along with 13 turnovers forced. They also are one of seven teams to allow fewer than 20 points per game so the price is very appealing.
Cash – Ingram if Kamara is out, D/ST
GPP – Smith, Trautman
Eagles
QB – The Saints have given up the fifth-most passing yards among teams that have played nine games and they are 25th in yards per attempt allowed to go with the 13th ranked DVOA against the pass. That’s a mixed bag for Jalen Hurts because they have also forced 11 interceptions, tied for the fourth-most. The version of Hurts from the last game was about the best one he could produce with two scores and 53 rushing yards with just 23 attempts. The Saints are a great run defense this year so Hurts could have more on his right arm. He’s still first in fantasy points per drop back and second in carries and rushing yards so the price doesn’t account for his upside.
RB – Philly has been running the ball a lot lately but this could be a tough team to do it against. New Orleans is the only team in the league that has not given up 500 yards rushing to running backs yet at just 483 yards. They also lead the league in yards allowed per carry and are first in DVOA against the run so there are not many worst spots a backfield could inherit. To complicate matters, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are averaging under 14 carries each per game and that’s not awful, but not a great amount of volume in the toughest matchup on the board. This is not where I’m heading on this slate.
Update – Mile Sanders is being activated off the injured reserve and the price is interesting but he doesn’t have a role in the receiving game that we love. The salary is great but the matchup doesn’t change.
WR – We know that Marshon Lattimore has been very feast or famine so far this year and that opens up the door for Devonta Smith. The salary is up there because he’s scored over 22 DK points in the past two weeks. The tough part has been he’s only seen six targets in each game because the Eagles just aren’t passing much but Smith just owns such a monster share of the passing offense. He’s seventh in air yards, fifth in air yards share, eighth in deep targets, and things might be clicking for the rookie. It’s never a big surprise to see high picks start to hit their stride in the second half of the season and he’s still very viable in GPP.
TE – We’ll need to monitor the status of Dallas Goedert as he left early last week with a concussion and has not practiced as of Wednesday. Jack Stoll took the bulk of the snaps at 65% but he drew three targets for a total of six yards. It’s not ideal and we can feel better about Trautman on the other side for $400 more.
D/ST – Just like the opposite defense, I do have an interest here. The Saints offense is nothing all that great this season and Philly has gotten home 18 times with a 23% pressure rate. They are only 19th in total DVOA so they’re not the best defense ever but even if Kamara is back, the New Orleans offense has very little to offer past that.
Cash – Hurts, D/ST
GPP – Smith, Goedert, Sanders
Dolphins at Jets, O/U of 44.5 (Dolphins -3)
Dolphins
QB – Regardless of how you feel about Tua Tagovailoa in the real-life football sense, I’m not sure we can trust him in any game moving forward. The Miami situation is one of the weirder ones I can remember, as he was healthy enough to be active last week but didn’t play until Jacoby Brissett got hurt. When you can play Brissett instead of giving Tua reps to figure out if he’s the answer or not, you have to do it. He’s 11th in fantasy points per drop back which would be great against the Jets and their dead last DVOA against the pass. Only Detroit has allowed a higher yard per attempt and they have given up the second-most yards among nine-game teams. Tua has the potential to score 22 DraftKings, be benched in the second half, and just about everything in between.
RB – The results may not show it, but Myles Gaskin had another strong week of usage with 15 touches and he’s been right around 65% of the snaps. That matchup is pristine as well since the Jets have allowed over 1,700 scrimmage yards and a whopping 20 touchdowns against running backs. Ranking 29th in yards per carry allowed and 31st in DVOA against the run back all of this up and if Gaskin is going to continue to get around 15 touches, he’s a nice salary saver at the position.
WR – Jaylen Waddle moves around to the point where he’s in the slot about half the time so the matchup is not as important. Frankly, there isn’t a bad one on paper because Waddle is fifth in the NFL in receptions and sixth in targets, both of which make him very viable on DraftKings. The yards are a little lacking at 26th but when he’s on the outside, the matchup of Brandin Echols is not scary as he’s allowed a 61.5% catch rate and 1.58 FPPT. The price makes him very appealing here and he’ll be the only receiver that I look at for Miami since the tight end is such a target monster.
TE – I’ll be surprised if anyone plays Mike Gesicki this week but it’s likely a good time to go back to the well. It’s not often that a player has a game with seven targets and comes up with a goose egg but that’s exactly what happened. He still leads the position in snaps in the slot and air yards, telling us what a major role he has in the offense. Even with a zero last week, he’s also still fourth in yards and receptions among the position and deserves his salary.
D/ST – Miami is 16th in total DVOA but they got the Jets price bump and I’m not sure I want to stomach the third-highest salary on the slate for them. They do have a 25.2% pressure rate and that is notable since the Jets are giving up a top-five pressure rate in football and the 21 sacks are appealing. It’s just a question of spending $3,600 so if I’m in love with my lineup and I have that amount, perfect. Generally, I don’t spend that amount on defense because a unit like the Saints can be just as good for an extra $700 elsewhere.
Cash – Waddle, Gesicki
GPP – Tua, D/ST
Jets
QB – I have zero clue why the Jets have switched to Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback over Mike White but I would not be interested at all. We have a couple of cheap options to turn to if you wanted to dip low and we know what Flacco is – not good. It could also have a negative effect on the other skill position players because we started to see the tendencies of White and who he liked to target. It’s a crazy move considering how much the Jets need to evaluate this roster.
RB – I was wrong on Michael Carter last week and he scored over 18 DraftKings points again. Since Week 4, he’s been under 10 DraftKings points just once and he’s playing right about 60% of the snaps. He also has a 14.6% target share which is the third-highest on the team. He’s being used as the RB1 on the team and he’s back under $6,000 and that salary is much more comfortable to pay. Miami is just 16th in yards per carry allowed and they are in the bottom half of the league in receptions allowed to backs. He was being hyper-targeted in the past four weeks as well to the point where he leads the league during that span at 31 targets total. The introduction of Flacco does lead to some concerns there, however. Carter is also seventh in carries so the volume has turned into an incredible amount.
WR – I’d love to play Elijah Moore but he’s still hovering around 50% of the snaps right now and that’s far from ideal. Instead, it may be better to focus on Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis since they are above 80% in snaps. Crowder is strictly the slot receiver and that leaves him on Nik Needham who has allowed a 71.4% catch rate. Davis is more of the outside guy and draws Xavien Howard for the most part. Howard’s had a down season so far but still has only allowed a 55.6% catch rate. Those catches have produced a lot with a 15.6 YPR but Flacco pulling the trigger isn’t the most ideal circumstance. I’d rather play Crowder, even though neither is a major portion of my lineups.
TE – Ryan Griffin played 71% of the snaps last week but only drew two targets. I suppose maybe you could argue that Flacco will lean on his tight end more but that is a thin branch to stand on. Miami is in the bottom 10 in yards and receptions given up but it feels like a giant risk that we don’t need to take.
D/ST – It would be quite the limb to stand on because the Jets have only forced seven turnovers this season but they do have 20 sacks and the Dolphins have had their fair share of offensive woes. The pressure rat is hovering around 25% for what Miami has given up so far and if you get 5-6 points in this range, it’s totally fine. I prefer Houston if punting but the Jets do have *mild* potential.
Cash – None
GPP – Carter, Crowder, Davis, Moore for MME only
Washington at Panthers, O/U of 43 (Panthers -3)
Washington
QB – I don’t think there’s a strong need to go to Taylor Heinicke this week. He played about as well as could be expected last week and that amounted to 15 DraftKings points. After a three-game run as a fantasy stalwart, he’s really had trouble being all that relevant and it’s not a huge surprise given the injuries Washington has dealt with in the receiving options. Carolina is second in DVOA against the pass and yards per attempt allowed, making this a tough spot to find success. He’s only 20th in fantasy points per drop back and that’s not enough in this matchup.
RB – Wow, I didn’t see Antonio Gibson rolling up 24 carries on the Tampa Bay rush defense. Don’t get it confused with any type of efficiency since he only generated 64 yards but it’s encouraging to see him with a big workload coming out of the bye week. He had fallen back to having a split with Jaret Patterson but 26 total touches for Gibson could be a very strong value. The issue comes from the matchup, as Carolina has been stingy on opposing running backs. They are average in rushing yards allowed and 14th in yards allowed per attempt. They have done a great job limiting the scoring from the backs since they have only allowed six touchdowns on the season. If Gibson is getting that amount of work and the game is completive, J.D. McKissic will be an afterthought. You have to get the script right with him.
WR – Terry McLaurin is an awesome receiver but I’m not sure I can advocate for him at $7,000 this week. It’s another tough spot against corner Stephon Gilmore for the most part and he’s only been targeted five times in his snaps so far. He’s only allowed two receptions and Donte Jackson is on the other side with a 1.54 FPPT. McLaurin is third in air yards share, fifth in air yards, ninth in targets, and eighth in target share. What hurts is he’s fifth in unrealized air yards and only 70% of his targets have been catchable. The quarterback play has him capped right now and I’ll pass with other options.
TE – This position could be down to the third-string if Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones can’t make it back for the game. John Bates (the Sia Special for the week) took over and played 64% of the snaps and caught all three of his targets. Thomas and Seals-Jones have a 16.1% and 11.2% target share respectively and as a stone minimum punt….you could do worse if the injury situation calls for it.
D/ST – It is somewhat the week of punting defense because Washington isn’t terrible either. Yes, they did just lose Chase Young and that’s not great. However, the Panthers are breaking in another new quarterback and he’s had some ups and downs in his recent play. Washington has a 25% pressure rate and they don’t need much.
Cash – None
GPP – Gibson, McLaurin, Bates, D/ST
Panthers
QB – Cam Newton only had seven total opportunities last week and turned them into 11.7 DraftKings points. Now, his chances came in the red zone for the most point, and 10 of those points came from touchdowns but it’s a reminder that when Cam is right, he can be a fantasy force. The question still remains if he is indeed right and ready to go because he hasn’t played at all this year and last year he really did not throw the ball well. Last year he was just 24th in passing yards, 25th in air yards, 25th in attempts, and 24th in true completion rate. However, he wound up being a top 15 option on a points per game basis because he was second in carries, yards and scored the most rushing touchdowns. He’s cheap enough to take the risk as the Konami Code of the position with rushing upside.
Update – Coach Matt Rhule says that P.J. Walker will get some snaps so this is a no-fly zone for me.
RB – Since his return from injury, Christian McCaffrey has only played 54.5% of the snaps but he also has 41 total touches, 267 scrimmage yards, and 14 receptions. In short, the snap count is irrelevant at this point and he’s leading the team in targets. The past two games have proved that he doesn’t need to score a touchdown to be productive at this price. He also just missed multiple scores and almost went nuclear on the last slate. Washington has defended the position well but it’s an interesting note that they’ve given up seven receiving scores to lead the league. They lost defensive end Chase Young for the season and the 983 scrimmage yards they’ve given up so far are about to go up.
WR – D.J. Moore is going to be so tempting since he’s under $6,000. He’s had a rough patch but is still sixth in receptions, 12th in yards, seventh in air yards, third in routes, and fourth in unrealized air yards. It remains to be seen how much Cam improves the quarterback play this week but the metrics would tell you that Moore shouldn’t be at this salary. If William Jackson sticks on Robby Anderson, Moore could see either some of Kendall Fuller or a backup as Fuller is questionable. Jackson has given up 1.91 FPPT and this secondary has been hammered for the most part by any quarterback not named Tom Brady.
TE – There is no tight end worth playing here even if Cam starts as expected. The touchdown equity is super low with Cam and CMC at the goal line and the target shares are under 9%.
D/ST – For a team that is third in total DVOA, Carolina is very cheap. They are tied for the second-most sacks in the league, have the third-highest pressure rate, and have forced 12 turnovers. Additionally, they only allow the sixth-fewest points scored per game. Washington has talent in their skill positions, but Carolina is way too cheap for what they bring to the table and are among my favorite D/ST picks for the week.
Cash – CMC, D/ST
GPP – Moore, Anderson
Lions at Browns, O/U of 43.5 (Browns -11)
Lions
QB – In six of the nine games this year, Jared Goff has scored under 14 DraftKings points and has eight touchdown passes. He’s 20th in yards, 33rd in yards per attempt, and 32nd in fantasy points per drop back. Are we good here? Yes? Alright, let’s move on.
Update – Goff is doubtful which means Tim Boyle is likely to start. Hopefully that just means a whole lot of the new player.
RB – I wouldn’t exactly count on 36 touches for D’Andre Swift again this week but they are feeding him the ball more with at least 17 touches in every game since Week 4. Cleveland is fourth in yards per carry allowed so it’s not the most ideal spot on the slate from that respect. Still, it seems clear that the Lions don’t trust Goff to pass the ball. Swift is getting fed the rock in a way that hasn’t happened much and Cleveland is not invincible against the run. The price tag is more than fair even if he dials back to 25 touches in total.
WR – We could find some value in Kalif Raymond or maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown but you can’t feel good about it. They only saw six targets each last week and that took their tight end being invisible. They could be playing a different quarterback and it’s tougher to know who the chemistry is with. St. Brown has a higher target share on the season but both are right about 15% and it’s basically a dead heat. St. Brown could see more of Troy Hill in the slot while Raymond is seeing more of Greg Newsome. Hill has beeline of the better slot corners in football so Raymond gets the slight edge but I’m not super interested.
Update – Hill is out so that helps St. Brown a bit
TE – With how bad Goff is playing right now, you can’t have the slightest confidence in T.J. Hockenson. He went from 11 targets two weeks ago but saw just one last week. You can point to the 31 targets combined in the previous three weeks but it’s not always translating. The salary rose and now you want 18-20 DraftKings points to be happy playing him. Cleveland has only allowed four receptions and 40.5 yards per game to the position. They have given up six touchdowns but Hockenson only has seven red-zone targets on the season. While the metrics like his route percentage, targets, and receptions are in the top five at the position, he felt very pricey for the very real floor.
D/ST – Unless we get some horrific weather, I’m not planning on going back to the Lions this week. They were a popular option last week in some poor conditions against a backup quarterback, but they remain 29th in total DVOA, 31st in pressure rate, and only have 10 turnovers forced. That’s not where we typically want to be when punting defense.
Cash – Swift
GPP – Raymond, Hockenson, St. Brown
Browns
QB – Regardless of who’s starting at quarterback between Baker Mayfield or Case Keenum, I’m not sure that I care. This is a spot where the Browns should be able to load up on the running game and bludgeon the Lions into submission. Mayfield has battled some injuries but has yet to cross into double-digit touchdown passes. Outside of one game against the Chargers, Mayfield has not had even the slightest upside this season. He’s only 21st in fantasy points per dropback and 26th in points per game.
RB – I’m typically not the biggest Nick Chubb fan because the receiving work is almost non-existent and he doesn’t get all the red-zone work that I would like. However, this spot is different since they are home favorites and he draws one of the softest matchups in the league. The Lions have a putrid run defense and have given up 989 yards rushing to backs so far, fifth-most in the league. They are also 18th in yards per carry and 29th in DVOA against the run so the ceiling is there for Chubb even at this salary. His upside is 150 yards and multiple touchdowns considering D’Ernest Johnson had 19 attempts last week while the Browns were getting blasted.
Update – Chubb is active and ready to roll, probably salivating at this matchup.
WR – I’m not sure if the knee is still bothering Jarvis Landry but my word has he been awful in his playing time. Six games have not even netted him 35 receptions yet and the price tag is not super appealing. Detroit is still fielding a very rough secondary so the matchup is not that vital and if you’re shooting for GPP upside- you could go back to Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s third in aDOT and he had two games of boom production before the Patriots bump in the road. I think the Browns get back on track here a bit and run the ball a ton so I’d rather take the shot at DPJ and hope for one or two splash plays since the volume is in question.
TE – Austin Hooper and David Njoku both have almost the same amount of targets at 35 and 31, which is not ideal. Hooper does have the advantage in red-zone targets at 8-6 and they’re tied with two touchdowns each. Detroit has only given up the eighth-fewest receptions but they’ve only faced the fifth-least targets so that’s not a true measure of how they’re defending the position. My fear would be the eighth-heaviest rush offense won’t need to throw the ball a whole lot as heavy favorites.
D/ST – They got absolutely rocked last week but I don’t mind the Browns again. They’re at home and the Lions are a shaky offense, allowing 26 sacks and the seventh-highest pressure rate in football. This Browns defense is miles better than they showed last week and is going to be out to prove it against an inferior offense.
Cash – Chubb, D/ST
GPP – DPJ, Landry, Baker
49ers at Jaguars, O/U of 45 (49ers -6.5)
49ers
QB – Any interest in Jimmy Garoppolo is likely attached to how competitive you think this game is. If the 49ers control this game like last week, Jimmy G has a limited ceiling. He only had to throw the ball 19 times last week with a sizable lead and was efficient with 182 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 completions. He’s actually third in yards per attempt this year despite being just 26th in yards and 21st in fantasy points per game. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA against the pass and 27th in yards per attempt allowed. I don’t ever have much of a need to play Jimmy G and that likely is the case again.
RB – Elijah Mitchell has a fractured finger so that has his status in jeopardy. If he can’t go and Trey Sermon being banished to the Upside Down, Jeff Wilson would be the next man up. He’s only had 10 carries in one game so far but there’s little reason to expect Sermon to take playing time here. Jacksonville is seventh in DVOA against the run but the 49ers have a strong run game and that wouldn’t worry me. We’ll see who’s in place to be active closer to Sunday.
Update – JaMycal Hasty is out and Mitchell is doubtful. We can safely fire up Wilson is all formats and he is one of the best RB values on the entire slate. He’s an easy play here.
WR – Deebo Samuel is still the only receiver that is playable in this corps, especially with their star tight end back. Spending the fifth-highest salary on him is going to be the decision point but he’s been elite so far. Samuel is second in yards, 12th in receptions, first in YAC, fifth in touchdowns, and second in points per game. He could see the majority of his snaps against Shaquill Griffin and he’s played well this year. The 1.40 FPPT is very solid and he’s only allowed 28 receptions on the season. Still, holding Samuel in check is an awful lot to ask. He could be an incredible GPP target just due to the salary this week.
TE – It’s great to see George Kittle getting targeted at a high clip in his return to the lineup with 15 total in the past two weeks, and last week wasn’t a super competitive game. He’s only played six games and is still 15th in receptions and 11th in yards among tight ends, which is pretty crazy to see. Kittle also has the highest target share in an offense at 25.4% and the price tag is more than fine here. Jacksonville has also allowed the sixth-most yards among nine-game teams to the position, upping the appeal for Kittle.
D/ST – They are up to 13th in total DVOA and have 20 sacks, but this is a short week with cross-country travel. It’s not a spot where I think the Jaguars win outright exactly, but the salary involved is not that appealing. The Jags have only allowed 16 sacks all year which is way fewer than the perception is and the turnovers are at 15. There is potential for the 49ers but I won’t be there to find out.
Cash – Wilson, Kittle
GPP – Deebo, Jimmy G
Jaguars
QB – Last week was the style of matchup that we could target Trevor Lawrence and that blew up pretty quickly. He only completed 45.7% of his passes and couldn’t clear 11 DraftKings points. He is 34th in yards per attempt, 20th in air yards, 25th in red-zone attempts, and 30th in fantasy points per drop back. San Francisco is only 20th in DVOA against the pass but eighth in yards allowed per attempt. They may not be the best pass defense in the league but the Jaguars offense has been putrid and San Francisco is holding teams under 24 points per game.
RB – It’s always a good sign to see a running back return from injury and going right back into their role and that’s what James Robinson did last week. He handled 16 touches and that was with Jacksonville being down in a hurry. The Jags did wise up and make him their lead back when he’s been healthy and the salary is fine if nothing special. The 49ers are fifth in DVOA against the run and there are much better spots to attack than this one.
WR – There is really not a receiver that I want to play here. With the tight end being a focal point, Marvin Jones has been left with just a handful of targets every week. Jamal Agnew had been somewhat appealing as a cheap option but he saw five targets last week and caught exactly zero of them. If he didn’t rip off a 66-yard touchdown run, it would have been a disaster game. Jones facing some of Josh Norman and Agnew seeing K’Waun Williams aren’t exactly terrible in and of itself. It’s much more to do with the Jaguars offense featuring a tight end and Turing the other options into complementary parts.
TE – Another game, another double-digit DraftKings point performance from Dan Arnold. He may not have the ceiling that Kittle, Kelce, and Andrews do any given week but he’s been super consistent in Jacksonville. Only one game has been single digits since he’s been a Jaguar, not counting the Thursday night game when he was in the facility for about 48 hours. He is now the target leader in the offense since Week 5. You can argue about the game plan of that and making him a focal point but it doesn’t matter what we think. All that matters is Arnold is getting fed targets and we need to follow that, even over $4,000.
D/ST – Jacksonville has lacked the finish on defense because the pressure rate of 27% is top 10 in the league but it’s only resulted in 16 sacks. They also only have five turnovers forced so it’s hard to get really excited here. We want splash plays and the 28th total DVOA defense doesn’t seem capable of giving them to us.
Cash – Arnold
GPP – Jones, Agnew, Robinson
Packers at Vikings, O/U of 47 (Packers -1.5)
Packers
QB – One of the bigger surprises of last week was Aaron Rodgers not being able to take advantage of a vulnerable Seattle defense. He now has played nine games and only has 17 touchdowns, which is also very unexpected. He’s also only 12th in fantasy points per game and fantasy points per drop back, not to mention only 14th in yards per attempt. It’s not exactly the smash follow-up to his MVP campaign from last year and based on his play, he may not generally be worth the salary. It’s still Rodgers so I can look extremely foolish saying that last sentence. Minnesota is sixth in DVOA against the pass and that’s not the reason to skip Rodgers, but it doesn’t exactly help his cause. The Vikings are also tied for the fourth-fewest touchdown passes allowed.
RB – Early in the week, I would expect AJ Dillon to be the chalk of the week with Aaron Jones missing. Jones was done early this past game with only seven carries and Dillons handled 21 carries and two receptions. If we’re getting 20 touches in a Green Bay offense for $6,200, the interest has to be there. He also handled nine red-zone touches and four carries inside the five, scoring twice. Minnesota is 30th in yards per carry allowed and allows over 100 yards per game rushing to running backs. We should fully expect a big workload, even if someone like Patrick Taylor snags a handful of touches.
Update – Jones is out, as is tackle David Bakhtiari. There’s no reason to shy away from Dillon in this spot.
WR – As someone who had a whole lot of Davante Adams last week, I can tell you that it was frustrating and we should be willing to go right back. While he’s not the glaring value he was, all the attention is going to a different game. If he can outscore some of the chalkier receivers (and that is very well possible), Adams could set you up nicely. He’s still top 10 in yards, receptions, air yards share, air yards, yards per route, targets, and target share. He’s actually also 16th in unrealized air yards, which is kind of scary. Adams also has the eighth-most red-zone targets and just three scores. The dam has to break soon. No other receiver has a target share over 12.7% which is Marquez Valdes-Scantling and I’m not looking here.
TE – No tight end in Green Bay is worth playing.
D/ST – The fact the Vikings have only given up 12 sacks so far is notable because the Packers have 24 but they are under 23.5% for their pressure rate. It’s also a surprise to see Green Bay sit at 11th in total DVOA and with 16 turnovers forced, fifth in the NFL. I don’t think they’re the best fit on the road but Minnesota has given up a lot of pressure. This could be a spot where the sacks come through.
Cash – Adams, Dillon
GPP – Rodgers, D/ST
Vikings
QB – You have to give the Packers some credit because even without two of their best defensive players for most of the year, they are eighth in DVOA against the pass. Kirk Cousins is always hard to gauge because the eye test is not always very generous to him but his metrics are never that poor. He’s ninth in yards, third in true completion rate, but he’s only 20th in yards per attempt and 13th in red-zone attempts. The volume helps since he has the seventh-most attempts but he’s only 17th in fantasy points per drop back. The price is kind of in no man’s land because most will either punt or go into the $7,000 range so there is some slight GPP appeal.
RB – It’s really difficult to ever argue that you shouldn’t play Dalvin Cook, who racked up another 27 touches last week. That makes it four straight games that he’s touched the ball at least 18 times and the Dallas game was the lone disappointing fantasy game. Green Bay only has given up 742 rushing yards but they’ve faced the 10th fewest attempts in the league. They are 26th in yards per carry allowed and that’s more important, as is the 24th rank in DVOA against the run. I tend to think he won’t be super popular in cash but that doesn’t mean he’s not a strong play overall.
WR – There is zero chance I’m playing Adam Thielen this week given who is around him, and he needs at least one score to pay off. The 22.5% target share is nothing terrible, but the 542 yards is just 28th. Thielen is fifth in touchdowns so you know what you need.
For Justin Jefferson, he can produce without scoring as he has the seventh-highest air yards share, sixth-most yards, and 10th most receptions. Jefferson is fourth in deep targets as well and draws mostly Eric Stokes, who turned around his struggles from early in the season. Stokes is down to a 49.1% catch rate and just 1.30 FPPT. It’s not enough to totally shut down Jefferson, but he is just GPP-only.
TE – I’m not saying that Ty Conklin isn’t in play, but don’t go crazy about him scoring twice last week. First, that was double his touchdowns on the season so he hasn’t found the paint that often. Secondly, some bad luck for Cook turned into production for Conklin as Cook had 11 red-zone attempts but scored just once. On the season, Conklin only has eight red-zone targets in total. The 15.1% target share isn’t bad I prefer other options in his range like Arnold, Trautman, and perhaps one more we’ll talk about.
D/ST – Minnesota is eighth in total DVOA but I will not make a habit of going against Rodgers and company, even though it would have worked out last week.
Cash – None
GPP – Jefferson, Cook, Cousins, Conklin, Thielen
Ravens at Bears, O/U of 44.5 (Ravens -5)
Ravens
QB – Will I ever tell you it’s not a good idea to play Lamar Jackson? Not even a bit because he has one of the highest ceilings at his position on any given slate. However, he’s priced competitively this week unlike two weeks ago when he was massive chalk. That won’t be the case this week so in GPP’s he could have a strong case because Chicago is 24th in yards allowed per attempt, 19th in DVOA against the pass, and a 16:4 TD:INT ratio. Jackson is fourth in fantasy points per drop back, third in fantasy points per game, fourth in air yards, and eighth in passing yards. That doesn’t even account for leading the position in carries and yards on the ground. Pending how the field treats him, Jackson could be an elite GPP play.
RB – Even if Latavius Murray makes it back for this one, the interest is fairly mild. The matchup sees the Bears defense giving up 4.4 yards per carry, 20th in the league so far. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most rushing yards so the matchup isn’t intimidating. The only reason the red number is on the DK screen is they’ve only allowed seven total touchdowns. My issues come from the fact that Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell have been involved to some extent. Sure, Bell only had three touches last week but the game script was poor in the early going and never flipped. The previous week saw him get 11 rush attempts. If it is more of a split, the appeal is simply not there. If Murray is active, it would be an upset getting a full load after missing the past few weeks.
Update – Bell was released, so we should expect Murray back in action
WR – If I’m playing anyone, it’s Rashod Bateman just due to the difference in salary. He is third in targets since he has been active with an 18.7% target share but he’s only $4,500 and he’s hit double-digit DK points in three straight. The rookie is 18th in yards per route so far and he avoids Jaylon Johnson. That matchup goes to Marquise Brown and Johnson has only allowed 1.50 FPPT and a 53.5% catch rate. His 15.5 YPR allowed does hint at giving up some big plays so Brown can take advantage of that with the fourth-highest air yards and 11th yards per route. Still, the salary is up there and he’ll likely get lost in the shuffle for me.
TE – Mark Andrews is not an objectively poor play, but he is in a really weird spot salary-wise that leaves me mostly uninterested. Kittle is only $300 more and is a little bit safer and has a little bit of a higher ceiling, in my eyes. The popular theme is Baltimore is a running team because that’s what they have been for years and Andrews is competing with Brown and Bateman for targets. That second part is true but the Ravens offense is average in pass attempts per game this season at 16th so the pie is getting bigger. Andrews is second in receptions, yards, points per game, and he’s first in deep targets. He can break the position on any given slate, but much like Jackson, he will likely be GPP only for me.
D/ST – The Ravens defense is not the unit that we’ve seen in recent years as they only have seven turnovers forced on the year and have yet to hit 20 sacks. Injuries have played a big part, to be sure but that doesn’t matter when we’re talking fantasy performance. The wild part is they lead the league in pressure rate and blitz 33.2% of the time, third-most in the league. That can give the Bears fits at times and they have allowed the most sacks in football, but their offense might be improving right before our eyes.
Cash – Jackson, Bateman
GPP – Hollywood, Andrews, D/ST
Bears
QB –The Ravens have been vulnerable to explosive plays this season and Justin Fields arguably played his best game before the bye week in Pittsburgh. He flashed a lot of potential within the passing game (58.6% completion rate duly noted) and the rushing production is becoming steadier. He’s rushed for at least 38 yards and has at least six attempts in the past four games and that’s a huge boost. His air yards per attempt is 10.7 and that is first in the league, which catches your eye a little bit. Baltimore is 29th in yards allowed per attempt and 24th in DVOA against the pass, which are really interesting in this spot. It would be MME-only but he could find himself over 20 DraftKings points on the back of rushing production and possible deep completions.
RB – I feel like there are about 12 backs that are really interesting this week and David Montgomery is included. He came back from IR and had 15 touches for 80 scrimmage yards and then a bye week to make sure he was totally healed up. Now he’s only $5,500 with one of the more secure workloads in the league and the Ravens are 10th in yards per carry allowed and have allowed over 1,100 scrimmage yards. With the improvements Fields might be starting to show, Montgomery is a strong volume play at a very reasonable salary.
WR – Darnell Mooney is the preferred target no matter what, but we’ll circle back with an Allen Robinson update. He’s yet to practice this week, which is odd coming out of the bye. There is a legitimate question about A-Rob playing this week so the matchups are not set. Mooney has been the leader in targets with Fields under center and is barely over $5,000.
Update – Robinson is doubtful so Mooney does look more appealing. He should see mostly Anthony Averett if his alignments stay the same and he’s allowed 1.49 FPPT but also a 14.5 YPR. Mooney could break a bg play or two and the targets should be more concentrated.
TE – Cole Kmet is in play to some extent, along the same lines that Trautman is in play. Fields has involved him more and he’s totaled 20 targets in the past three games. He finally translated it to fantasy production in their last game but I have some reservations simply because Montgomery is back in full force. He could mute some of the target potential here but Kmet still has a 9.8-yard aDOT since Week 5, so the targets wouldn’t be the exact same. This is also an example of tight end production against the Ravens being a bit skewed as they’ve faced Waller, Kelce, Hockenson, and Fant. I’d say Gesicki but we saw how that ended.
D/ST – Chicago has managed to rack up 25 sacks on the year despite running one of the lowest blitz rates in the league. Last week when the Ravens struggled, it was blitzing almost legitimately non-stop so this will be interesting to see if the Bears change their strategy. I wouldn’t bank on that to play them and think we have better options like the Panthers for $200 more.
Cash – Monty
GPP – Mooney, Fields, Kmet
Bengals at Raiders, O/U of 50.5 (Bengals -1)
Bengals
QB – Joe Burrow had a five-game streak of 20 DraftKings points or more before a serious flop against Cleveland before the bye week. Burrow is still second in yards per attempt and seventh in yards even with the bye week and he’s in the top 10 in fantasy points per drop back and 11th in points per game. The red-zone work can cap the upside if the long ball isn’t working because he’s only 21st in attempts so far this year even though Burrow is ninth in true completion rate. Vegas is 22nd in DVOA against the pass and allows the seventh-highest yards per attempt. The price tag is pretty solid as well.
RB – DraftKings didn’t forget how well Joe Mixon has been playing lately since his price is up there (justifiably). That’s what scoring 25 or more DraftKings points in three of four games does to your salary. Mixon is fourth in the league in attempts and he’s been far more involved in the passing game lately. He has an 11.4% target share in the span of the last four games and that would only help his floor and ceiling combo. The Raiders are in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed, 24th in yards per carry allowed, and 16th in DVOA against the run. I’m not sure Mixon will be a huge priority for me but there is nothing wrong with the salary.
WR – Statistically, one of the toughest corners you can draw as a receiver is Casey Hayward. He’s not faced a ton of great receivers but across 25 targets, he’s only given up 11/90 on the year. That will be a challenge for Ja’Marr Chase who has been a monster this season although three of the last four games have been sup-par. Chase is fourth in air yards share and fifth in yards while sitting sixth in yards per route. I don’t think he’s going to be a priority for me this year, and Tee Higgins is likely in the same boat. He’s only 35th in receptions, 44th in yards, and 19th in target share. The consistency is nice but an option like Waddle for just slightly more is appealing. It does appear that Higgins is popular, which I should have been expecting since his price just never moves.
TE – C.J. Uzomah has just 28 targets on the year and two red-zone looks, so I will remain uninterested and understand his two monster games were variance and not a predictable role in the offense. That’s especially true if Mixon remains heavily involved in the passing game.
D/ST – Cincy is down to 20th in overall DVOA but they have 23 sacks and a pressure rate of about 25%. They do only have nine turnovers forced all year and the Raiders have only given up a 19.3% pressure rate so this isn’t the best mix in my eyes.
Cash – Mixon, Burrow, Higgins
GPP – Chase
Raiders
QB – This is not my favorite spot of the slate not only because Derek Carr has a limited ceiling but because the Cincy defense has held up well against the pass so far. They are 14th in yards per attempt allowed and 21st in DVOA but are tied for the third-fewest passing touchdowns allowed. That could flip because Carr is sixth in red-zone attempts this season and he’s fourth in yards, but he’s only 22nd in fantasy points per drop back. The 15 touchdowns are just 12th and that doesn’t help his cause but the offense is missing elements and it has been noticeable.
RB – Josh Jacobs could be a tough sell here because the Raiders are underdogs and he lost his fullback Alec Ingold, which isn’t going to help the run game. Jacobs typically needs a positive script and the Bengals have only allowed 700 yards on the ground while sitting 13th in yards per carry allowed. One of the main weaknesses this year has been receptions allowed to the position but Jacobs has all of a 9.7% target share, lower than Kenyan Drake. During some weeks, I could argue he has some appeal if you think the Bengals control this game but this isn’t the slate. A workhorse back like Montgomery is only $300 more and it’s easy to get away from the Vegas backs this week.
WR – Hunter Renfrow is about the only player you can feel comfortable within the corps. I know that Bryan Edwards had a longer touchdown last week but four targets a game just aren’t going to cut it. Renfrow sits in the slot and all see Mike Hilton, which has been a spot to exploit. He’s allowed a 75% catch rate across 44 targets and Renfrow has seen 18 targets in the past two weeks. That’s important because Waller missed the previous game so Renfrow is a safe pick once again, with some small upside.
TE – Of the four tight ends that are $6,000 or more on the main slate, Darren Waller would be last for me. He’s seen 18 targets over the past two weeks, which is great. He’s also generated just 116 yards, under his 61.8 yards average per game. The offense is a little easier to throw defensive coverages at him now and he’s fine in PPR formats, but the upside could be in serious question. Aside from his Week 1 performance, it’s been a fairly pedestrian year for Waller and I’ve not played him very often. His target share is only 20.9% since then, behind Renfrow. Waller has just one touchdown which negates being fourth and fifth in receptions and yards, to some extent.
D/ST – You always want at least a little upside in cheaper defense and the only way the Raiders present that is if they can get to Burrow, who has been sacked 25 times. That’s the fifth-most in the league and third-most for players that have played nine games, while the Raiders have 21 sacks already.
Cash – Renfrow, Waller
GPP – Carr, D/ST
Cardinals at Seahawks, O/U of 48 (Cardinals -2)
Cardinals
QB – Perhaps Kyler Murray comes back this weekend but I’m not ready to bank on that quite yet. Seattle is 25th in DVOA against the pass so far and 19th in yards allowed per attempt, so it’s a spot that can be taken advantage of. Even though he’s only played eight games, he’s still 15th in yards, sixth in air yards, 14th in red-zone attempts, and third in fantasy points per drop back. We can hope the ankle has healed up so he runs a bit more as well because that has not been a big factor. He only passed 20 yards rushing once (and it was 21 yards) in his last four starts. Let’s circle back but if he’s active, he could be a strong GPP play just like Jackson.
RB – Even in a blowout, James Conner got 13 touches and found the end-zone once again because that’s simply all he does. Seattle has allowed over 1,600 scrimmage yards this year and even though they are eighth in yards per carry allowed and 11th in DVOA against the run, they can certainly be had. Conner’s average fantasy score last week works to our benefit this week because his salary dropped by $100. His 40 DraftKings point game is not likely the true ceiling for him but the salary only demands about 25 for a ceiling. Hopefully, Kyler is back and this offense can get back to running smoothly.
WR – Just like the past few weeks, so much is depending on the status of DeAndre Hopkins that we’re not diving in here. He’s still not at practice so the lean would be he’s out again, but we don’t know for sure. We also need clarity on Kyler so we’ll have the update here when available.
Update – Hopkins is out, which leaves A.J. Green and Christian Kirk as the primary targets. Green is still in the top 20 in red-zone targets and faces off against some of Tre Brown. He’s allowed just a 50% catch rate on 14 targets in his playing time.
Kirk has 14 targets across the past two games for the lead on the team but Green only played one because of Covid protocols. His aDOT even with Colt McCoy playing was still 10.1 yards. He moves around a lot because he plays 41% of his snaps in the slot. When he’s not in the slot, D.J. Reed should be in coverage and has allowed a 13.5 YPR. Both are viable but I would feel better if Kyler is playing.
TE – My honest reaction at the Zach Ertz salary on DraftKings was “LOL” because it rose again despite him being in single digits for scoring the past three weeks. Granted, two of those games have come with McCoy as his quarterback but the numbers are still the numbers. He only drew 11 targets while the Cardinals were missing Hopkins for both games and Green for one. I simply can’t and won’t invest that salary in a play that is so thin, and Seattle has actually been strong against the position allowing just three touchdowns and 439 yards.
D/ST – After watching the Seahawks putrid performance last week (seriously…why does D.K. Metcalf hate me so much), I’m not that upset by playing the Cardinals defense here. They are second in total DVOA, tied for fourth in sacks, and have a pressure rate over 25%. lastly, they have forced the third-most turnovers on the year and the price isn’t crazy high. It’s potentially, the highest I would go.
Cash – Conner
GPP – Kyler, Kirk, Green
Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson put forth one of his worst games…well, of his entire career last week with just 161 passing yards and 7.6 DraftKings points. Arizona is fourth in yards per attempt allowed and DVOA against the pass, not exactly a ringing endorsement. Russ is fifth in yards per attempt and second in air yards per attempt so they are attacking deep in the passing game, but the deep completion rate is just 23rd on the season. Wilson is seventh in fantasy points per drop back and I really want to see how the field treats him. If Kyler is back and more points are expected, Wilson could be forced to air it out.
RB – The Seahawks face a Cardinals unit that is eighth in DVOA against the run and they may be relying on the third-string running back. Chris Carson doesn’t sound close to coming back and Alex Collins was a surprise DNP on Thursday. This could be a really ugly situation that we’ll need to talk more about on Friday.
Update – Collins is back to not having an injury designation and will split with Travis Homer, who likely plays on he majority of passing downs.
WR – Aside from the fact that D.K. Metcalf doesn’t like me, the status of the running backs could have trickle effects through the offense. If the running game is totally ineffective, Seattle could be very pass-heavy and in theory, that could benefit Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The application of that theory last week was beyond awful. Metcalf should see Byron Murphy who has been excellent so far. Like most corners, Murphy is giving up size but has a 55.1% catch rate allowed and just a 0.7% burn rate. That’s great but Metcalf is eighth in yards run per route, third in touchdowns, and 13th in points per game.
Lockett is playing a lot less in the slot and has the 12th air yards share in the league with 14 deep targets, along with the 12th highest target share. Robert Alford has a 64.3 catch rate allowed and 1.53 FPPT. Russell Wilson can’t play worse….right?
TE – Gerald Everett has played seven games this season and has 22 total receptions on a 13.2% target share. Over 35% of those receptions came last week in a game where Seattle failed to generate literally anything through their passing game. It truly seems like a classic case of chasing a game that is way outside normal expectations. To compound matters, Arizona is second among teams that have played 10 games in yards given up to the position.
D/ST – If Kyler is back, I won’t touch Seattle at the same price as Carolina. If he’s not, we can revisit this play as a GPP option since we saw how bad the Arizona offense can be without their star players last week.
Cash – None
GPP – Metcalf, Lockett, Wilson, TBD
Cowboys at Chiefs, O/U of 56.5 (Chiefs -2.5)
Cowboys
QB – Here. We. Go. If I’ve seemed not that interested in some of the quarterback options, it’s because of this game. It has the highest total on the board by roughly six points, two great offenses, and two very average (at best) defenses. Dak Prescott hammered his salary last week at chalk so he could very well be chalky again. He’s one of the easiest ways to get access to this game and KC is 30th in yards per attempt allowed, 27th in DVOA against the pass, and the fourth-most passing yards allowed. Dak is sixth in yards per attempt, fantasy points per drop back, and points per game. This should be a fun one.
RB – One of the reasons I would struggle to play Mixon this week is because Ezekiel Elliott is only $100 more and in just a total smash spot. The KC run defense is putrid as they have allowed the fifth-most receptions, the third-highest yards per carry, and over 1,300 scrimmage yards. They also have the 26th ranked DVOA against the run and if the Cowboys can stick with the run game, Zeke should eat in this matchup. He’s sixth in carries on the year and has a 9.9% target share. You can always try Tony Pollard to be different but plenty of games have seen him with just eight touches or so.
WR – I have to pass along this tweet because it’s really great to explain just how dangerous the passing game is for Dallas this week.
It will be fascinating to see how the field reacts to the duo of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. The path of least resistance is Cooper and with so man trying to jam this game in, I’m betting he will be more popular. Lamb is coming off a ceiling game but he’s not cheap and he could wind up not being as popular as he should for no other reason than pricing. The scary part is nobody played over 66% of the snaps last week and Lamb was only at 41.6%.
Michael Gallup made his return as well and drew five targets and the most air yards. The best course is to mix and match these receivers as they all have some serious potential at the salary. There isn’t any corner in the KC secondary that can hang with any of them and if the Chiefs play man coverage, Dak is going to lay waste to that defense. I will likely try to go against the field on ownership, but I want to pay up for Lamb more than most right now. If he’s going to get open 45% of the time the rest will take care of itself.
Update – Cooper is out with Covid protocols, so both Lamb and Gallup take a monster bump up. I want one in my cash and GPP lineups this week. It also bumps up the next man.
TE – I’m not letting one poor game shift my view on Dalton Schultz very much here. He’s still playing right about 80% of the snaps and he is top 10 in yards and receptions at the position. Perhaps the largest knock is he only has five red-zone targets on the year which doesn’t do him many favors. However, he’s still 10th in yards per route and the Chiefs will have their hands more than full with the talented receiver trio. I’m not sure I’d be interested in a one-off, but getting different in stacks sure does make sense.
D/ST – Trevon Diggs may pick off Mahomes once or twice, but the potential downside is not worth it. The Chiefs looked better on Sunday night (although they still had to dodge multiple turnover plays) and put up 40 points.
Cash – Dak, Zeke, Lamb, Cooper
GPP – Gallup, Schultz, Pollard
Chiefs
QB – Patrick Mahomes threw for 400+ yards and five touchdowns last week and I feel like this is how he walked into the locker room after three straight very poor games –
Mahomes had a patch where he scuffled but yet he is still fourth in points per game, first in attempts, third in red-zone attempts, second in yards, and second in touchdowns. He’s under $8,000 on the main slate in the highest total. Do we need to say much more about him?
RB – Playing a Chiefs running back depends on the health of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. If he is active, it’s hard to not imagine he’ll split with Darrell Williams to the point where neither will have much value. Williams was already taking about 30-35% of the role before CEH got hurt and Williams stepped in to handle 72% of the carries for backs while sporting a 7.7% target share. That would be more than enough against the 18th ranked defense in DVOA against the run, but only if CEH remains out.
Update – CEH will be activated which makes this too messy for my liking. I’ll just stick to the passing game.
WR – Here’s another gem of a tweet that tells us about Tyreek Hill being a smash play –
We know that corner Trevon Diggs can get scorched in coverage because he does take some chances and if he’s in man, Hill is going to get him at least a couple of times. He’s second in receptions, fourth in yards, first in unrealized air yards, and second in deep targets. He is more expensive than the next player, but he’s going to be my favorite Chief in this game. It’s just a matter of squeezing him in and it likely includes spending down at tight end. Diggs has allowed an 18.3 YPR this year and Hill is my priority.
TE – Those numbers with Hill give me a slight hesitation with Travis Kelce, but not much. He’s still an elite option that is not priced correctly at $7,100. Kelce leads in receptions, yards, unrealized air yards, YAC, points per game, routes….you get the picture. Dallas is mid-pack defending the position but we know that’s not that important, especially in this game environment. Juggling the skill players in this game is going to be a challenge.
D/ST – Not even a consideration for me.
Cash – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, TBD
GPP – Any cash player
Cash Core Four
A.J. Dillon, Jeff Wilson (assuming Mitchell is OUT), Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill
GPP Core Four
One of – CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, or Ezekiel Elliott
One Of – Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce
Nick Chubb
Jeff Wilson (too good of a spot with no backs behind him and pricing to pass in either format)
Stacks
Chiefs/Cowboys – All the usual suspects, I will have at least 2-3 players from this game in every lineup. With that said, I’m more focused on building mini stacks around them with teams more than game stacks.
Bills – Allen, Diggs, Sanders, Knox, Beasley
Bengals – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Mixon (Waller preferred Raider for minis)
Packers – Rodgers, Dillon, Adams
Vikings – Cook, Jefferson
One-Offs To Make Things Work – Brandin Cooks, Jaylen Waddle, Mark Ingram, Dan Arnold, Rashod Bateman, James Conner, John Bates
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.
