NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 7

Week Seven could not get here any faster, our staff has been on fire for the main slates! GPPs should have led you to green screens if you decided to roster the likes of Drake London and Michael Pittman, giving you 20-plus fantasy points and single-digit ownership. Chuba Hubbard was also some healthy chalk to ingest, so let’s keep up our appetite for DFS! With six teams on bye, we’ll get a ten-gamer loaded with some low totals…but regardless of the slate, we’re all here to stay on the right path to cash.

The injury bug was busy in Week Six, as we lost some important pieces in the NFL such as Justin Fields. Jimmy Garoppolo and possibly Daniel Jones are some other well-known household-name quarterbacks that may also miss this weekend, hence dropping totals even lower.

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. This Week Seven Breakdown should be interesting, so let’s get right to it!

Sunday Main Slate 10/22/23

Lions @ Ravens (-3) (O/U 42)

Locks: Lamar Jackson; Amon-Ra St. Brown

I love the Lions at 5-1 and the team as a whole this season, but I’m not getting the warm and fuzzies on the road in Baltimore. Jared Goff has been a stud at home but can turn into a pumpkin on the road for his career. Now with him losing David Montgomery and possibly Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds at running back, we could see a ton of blitzing by the Ravens. So sign me up for my punt at defense this weekend with the Baltimore DST ($2,500 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel). Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) should have a busy day as well with all the injuries at running back, although if Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) does suit up he’ll be a cash option, especially if Craig Reynolds misses this game with his own hamstring and toe issues.

Lamar Jackson now has two clear weapons on hand in Baltimore, Mark Andrews ($5,7000 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) and the rookie Zay Flowers ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel). The Lions have been the best in the league against the run, allowing only 64 yards per game on the ground. So Jackson will be in a pass-funnel defense, expect Flowers and Andrews especially to profit on Sunday as the Lions are 29th-ranked against tight ends.

Honorable Mention: Sam La Porta

Bills @ Patriots (+9) (O/U 41.5)

Locks: Josh Allen

Whenever I see the Pats on a slate, I immediately look up the opposing defense’s price tag and they’re not cheap anymore. New England is inept at moving the football, with only 1,696 total yards and 31/88 third-down conversions, the Bills DST ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) are an option to pay up for. However, Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) finally showed up for fantasy managers last week, catching five passes and landing in the endzone. He’ll see the Bills’ 25th DVOA rushing defense at home, a great pivot at running back for GPPs.

As for the Bills on offense, we all know where to butter our bread for DFS. It’s Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, the duo have combined for 49REC/620YDS/6TDS in just the first six weeks this season. But the Pats do have a formula to take out any team’s number-one receiver defensively, which would make the Bills WR2 Gabe Davis ($5,900 DraftKings/$ 6,700 FanDuel) a sneaky start at receiver this week.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki (if Hunter Henry is out)

Commanders @ Giants (+2) (O/U 39.5)

If you’re looking for value in your lineup, this is the game to target. Sam Howell ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) will draw a dismal Giants’ secondary on the road. Alpha receiver Terry McLaurin ($5,400 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) and especially Sam’s new best friend Curtis Samuel ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) are both in great positions to smash their salaries against New York’s sorry excuse for Cover-Three this week. Samuel has scored double-digit fantasy points over the last three weeks. Brian Robinson ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is also in a fantastic spot, New York allows over 140 rushing yards per game and is a bargain under $6K on DraftKings

Saquon Barkley ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has shown to be on the mend in his last game against Buffalo, seeing 24 carries for 94 yards. The volume will be needed heavily if the Giants want to stay competitive in this divisional game at home, especially considering they are hurting at the quarterback position. Wan’dale Robinson ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is also still pretty inexpensive and has emerged as the Giants’ number-one receiver, seeing 25 targets in four games. Watch the weather too, if it gets windy and wet, both defenses can come into play.

Browns @ Colts (+2) (O/U 39)

This game looks gross not only by the total but the quality of quarterbacks on both sides of the field. Last week Minshew was valuable from a fantasy perspective, but in real football, three picks will not keep you on the field. PJ Walker also reminded us of why he was in the XFL three years ago with his performance of 192YDS/2INTS against the Niners, forcing both the Colts ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) and Browns ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) defenses into lineups as an option. But if Deshaun Watson decides to play this weekend, hold the phone.

It’s not Watson I’d be interested in, but an affordable Amari Cooper ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) against a pitiful Colts’ secondary that has been scorched all season (23rd in DVOA). I’m also in on Jerome Ford ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), as bad as Indy defends the pass, they’ve been trampled by opposing running backs in the last two weeks (Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne). Ford is a must for GPPs in a game with very low ownership.

Falcons @ Bucs (-2.5) (O/U 38.5)

There’s not much going on here for DFS either down in Tampa, Florida with this nauseating total. Tampa’s ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) and Atlanta’s ($2,800 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) defenses for sure are a play. We saw Amon-Ra of Detroit tear up the middle of the Bucs’ secondary last weekend (12 REC/124YDS/1TD), so if Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) plays some slot this week we could get another big day out of him, but keep him out of your cash lineups.

The Commanders’ Logan Thomas was a huge let-down against Atlanta last weekend for us, only catching one ball for five stinking yards. The Bucs’ Cade Otton ($2,900 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) draws the same Falcons’ 27th-ranked defense against opposing tight ends, I’m willing to bet lightning doesn’t strike twice and Cade pops off in your GPPs.

Raiders @ Bears (+3) (O/U 37.5)

Locks: Josh Jacobs

Oh boy, here we go again with another doozy… more backup quarterbacks coming out of the woodwork. The undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent and possibly 38-year-old Brian Hoyer will lead their teams out onto Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon, I can’t wait! You have to love both defenses here again in this spot, start them up!

Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will be chalky for another weekend, and DJ Moore ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) being the only weapon left standing in Chi-town will also be popular. But watch out if the squeaky wheel scenario plays out for Vegas’ star wideout Davante Adams ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel). Adams made headlines during the week complaining of his role in the offense and decrease in usage. Bears’ corner Tyrique Stevenson will have his work cut out for him, hope he gets a good night’s sleep as Adams could be targeted heavily on Sunday.

Steelers @ Rams (-3) (O/U 43.5)

Locks: Cooper Kupp

Look no further for your free ticket for cash and GPP builds for Week 7. Zach Evans ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) will be the healthiest chalk on the slate as the Rams are decimated by injuries at the running back position. LA running backs lead the league in snap share (85.9%), which allows Evans to destroy his price for DFS. However, if you believe the Rams will feature even more volume in their passing attack, I will not argue with that. Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) and Puca Nacua ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) will be GPP darlings and stack options along with Matt Stafford ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,7000 FanDuel), who’s price tag is on the up and up.

We’ll stand clear of Kenny Pickett and the Steelers for this week. Coming off a bye week with Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth back in the starting lineup, it’s best to play the wait-and-see approach.

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-7.5) (O/U 44.5)

Now here’s one of my games to target for DFS with plenty of pieces to go around. The game script should heavily lean in Kenneth Walker’s ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) favor, especially with a banged-up Zach Charbonnet. You can expect some high ownership on Walker, but don’t let that scare you off of him, as the Cardinals are a bottom-barrel all-around defense (30th DVOA against running backs, 26th DVOA to receivers). A solid cash play along with quarterback Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), whereas most of the field may look to roster a pay-down quarterback.

As the norm goes for Arizona, they will most likely trail in this contest, giving another viable start for Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel). His salary refuses to go up, so we’ll run it back one more time with Brown, who’ll smash the Seattle craptastic Cover-Three (30th DVOA) and produce (13.9 FPTS/game).

Chargers @ Chiefs (-5.5) (O/U 48.5)

Locks: Pat Mahomes; Travis Kelce; Justin Herbert

Welcome to the game of the week ladies and gents! This game has the highest total on the slate, so grab as many Bolts and Chiefs for your lineups. Mahomes, Kelce, Herbert, and Allen are all at the top of the food chain, but there is still some value to be extracted. In a game that should go back and forth in scoring, Josh Palmer ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Rashee Rice ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) are key pieces that are still underpriced.

Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) and Keenan Allen ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) should see very little ownership, along with Pat Mahomes as the highest-priced quarterback, and great spots for GPP tournaments, it will be tricky to create but doable.

Let’s not forget about Isaiah Pacheco ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), he’s beginning to be featured heavily in the Kansas City offense, especially in the red zone. He’s registered double-digit fantasy points since Week Three, so Pacheco will be popular and worth it.

Packers @ Broncos (+1) (U/O 44.5)

Another weekend to target the Vance Johnson Broncos defense? Yes please, keep them coming! The Packers coming off a bye week should be ready to pounce all over this secondary, and if Aaron Jones ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) can play again since Week One, (a bit pricey for cash games) we’ll have to fire him up in a GPP against the worst-ranked run defense in the league (32nd-ranked). Not only does Jones have an opportunity to make a splash, but so do his teammates. Jordan Love ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel), if he can be accurate, can carve up the Broncos Cover-Three with Romeo Doubs ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), Christian Watson ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), and the chalk at tight end for the week Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) (Broncos are 32nd in DVOA against tight ends).

I do have to mention the matchup for Denver’s running backs as well (the Packers allow 143 rushing yards/game). Although it looks like from Vegas’ POV to be a close game, maybe it’s worth a dart throw in tournaments for Javonte Williams ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) or Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel).

Cash Core 

• Geno Smith
• Kenneth Walker
• Luke Musgrave
• Josh Palmer
• Marquise Brown

GPP Core 

• Pat Mahomes
• Davante Adams
• Zach Evans (safe for cash too)
• Mark Andrews
• Jerome Ford

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for 50% off using promo code HALFOFF50 here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!