Joe DiCarlo 
It was another profitable week for cash, we can’t miss our picks! D-Hop, Hollywood Brown, and Wandale Robinson were a few of our headliners that gave us great value. Week Six will still be a little light due to the byes and another game across the pond on Sunday Morning. Eleven games on this slate, so let’s get right to it. We lost some pretty big names to IR including Justin Jefferson and DeVon Achane last weekend, which will open doors up to some value and pivots in Week Six.
Remember to stay tuned to all of our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Let’s keep the momentum moving in the right direction, The Week Six Breakdown is full-throttle, let’s ride!
Sunday Main Slate 10/15/23
Niners @ Browns (+7) (O/U 37.5)
Locks: Christian McCaffrey
The Niners land in the dog pound as the number-one offense in football, but with an over-under of only 37.5 we should consider pumping the brakes, especially in the passing game. Other than the workhorse of CMC I’d consider paying up for the San Fran DST ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) especially because Cleveland is left with quarterback PJ Tucker to fill in for Deshaun Watson.
Now that I’ve touched on the Browns QB situation, how can we rush to draft any players for the rest of this offense? We all saw what happened to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on Primetime television, so how can we trust PJ Tucker to run the Browns’ offense? But the Browns also can play a little defense themselves. Sign me up for a dirt-cheap Browns DST ($2,200 DraftKings/$ 3,800 FanDuel) in a low-scoring, possible weather-dampering game, who rank first against opposing quarterbacks.
Panthers @ Dolphins (-13.5) (O/U 48.5)
Locks: Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert
The schedule keeps getting easier for the Dolphins, sitting pretty as two-touchdown favorites against the lowly Panthers. With De’Von Achane hitting IR there will be plenty of running the rock with Mostert (Panthers allow 140 rushing yards/game; 30 FPTS to running backs) and quick slant passes to Hill, but will Carolina even put up any points? If you can pay up for the Miami DST ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) go for it. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) already shows low ownership, making a great pivot at quarterback for GPP.
If the Panthers find themselves in a big hole, they will be forced to throw the ball for the entire game. Bryce Young loves his veteran Adam Thielen, but his salary is getting a little too inflated for a thirty-something receiver on a terrible team. DJ Chark ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) against a Miami Cover-Four defense would be a slick GPP dart, fading the Thielen chalk.
The Panthers May also be ruling out starting running back Miles Sanders, who hasn’t practiced all week. If he’s out, Chuba Hubbard ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) becomes a lock at RB regardless of game flow and matchup because of the volume at a low cost.
Update: Miles Sanders and Jeff Wilson Jr. are out! Salvon Ahmed ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is a viable GPP pivot!
Vikings @ Bears (+2.5) (O/U 44.5)
Locks: Justin Fields; TJ Hockenson
Watch the weather for this matchup, we could get a little rain with some wind. The Vikings have lost Jefferson to IR with a hamstring, what a bummer. But his absence will create cap space against one of the worst corners in Chicago of Tyrique Stevenson, KJ Osborne ($4,400 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is your free space for the weekend, especially with a banged-up Jordan Addison. Kirk Cousins ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) and Alexander Mattison ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) will be candidates for a GPP, lining up behind one of the toughest offensive lines in the league.
Bears receiver DJ Moore ($6,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is locked in with Justin Fields and is foaming at the mouth for another smash spot against a Minnesota defense (31st in DVOA against the pass) that loves to blitz. Moore put up video game stats (8REC/230 YDS/3TDS) last Thursday, get him in while he is still affordable.
Now the Bears have also put a dent in their backfield. Khalil Herbert is doubtful and Roschon Johnson is still in concussion protocol. D’Onta Foreman ($4,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) will be the lead back if the trend continues, but hopefully, Roschon Johnson ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 Fanduel) clears and we won’t need to stoop that low.
Update: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer are all out for the Chicago backfield!
Seahawks @ Bengals (-3) (O/U 45)
Locks: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Burrow
The boys in stripes are back in town, so let’s ride the hot hand with Joe Burrow ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) against the worst pass defense in the league (Seattle 32nd in DVOA). The duo from LSU connected on 15 of 19 targets, for 192 yards and three touchdowns, Chase again should torch Seattle when they line up for Cover-Three, just be aware of the weather with possible wind and rain.
Cincinnati’s run defense has been second-to-last as of late, which sets up Kenneth Walker ($6,700 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) to crush coming off a bye week. Tyler Lockett ($5,700 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) could benefit on Sunday too, as long as the Bengals stick to Man Coverage. Both will make fantastic GPP prospects.
Colts @ Jaguars (-4) (O/U 45.5)
Locks: Trevor Lawrence; Travis Etienne
The Colts lost their rookie first-round stud Anthony Richardson to IR, however, veteran backup Gardner Minshew ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is no ordinary backup. “Uncle Rico” will be back in Duval County, where he spent his first three seasons. Minshew will not be gun-shy on Sunday, utilizing his weapons Josh Downs ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) and especially Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), who has feasted on the Jaguars for his career (32 REC/366YDS/2TDS) since 2021.
This game screams a breakout for Trevor Lawrence ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) this season. He’ll be chalky for DFS, but feel free to double-stack him with the likes of Calvin Ridley ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), Evan Engram ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel), and Christian Kirk ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), who will smash Indy’s Cover 3 and 4 Zone Defense (24th in DVOA).
Commanders @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 42.5)
Locks: Bijan Robinson
Sam Howell peppered the Ba Jesus out of Logan Thomas ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) last Thursday against Chicago (11 Targets for 9REC/77YDS/1TD). He’s still priced down this weekend, and there’s no reason why Howell won’t revert to his giant red-zone target against a Falcon team that just does not cover the position (31st in DVOA).
The Falcons will be very below-the-radar play for DFS, as the field is not showing much ownership so far this week. When Bijan is not receiving check-down passes when the Commanders blitz, Desmond Ridder should exploit Washington’s weak Man Coverage with Drake London ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) or Kyle Pitts ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel). Both are solid value options for Cash or GPP games.
Saints @ Texans (+1) (O/U 42)
Locks: Alvin Kamara
So we have back-to-back weeks for Kamara to rebuild and pad his stats, facing the marshmallow Texans’ run defense. A stud for cash, and since Houston runs out plenty of Zone, stack Kamara with a dirt cheap Michael Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel). Thomas lives in the middle of the field, hopefully, he finally finds the endzone this weekend, he is due!
Houston’s receiving core enters the weekend with questionable tags (Tank Dell, Robert Woods). Although the Saints’ defense has been pretty tough to throw on (183 Pass YDS/Game), John Metchie III ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) would be a nice punt play at his salary if Woods and Dell can’t suit up. Or we can default to the Texans’ number-one option Nico Collins ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) along with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel), who has yet to throw a pick.
Patriots @ Raiders (-3) (O/U 41.5)
Locks: Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams
Vegas will welcome Belichick and the Pats with open arms, especially former team members Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel). They’ve hooked up on 26 of 32 targets, with three touchdowns, and will look to keep the momentum going on Sunday. But let’s not forget about one of the best wideouts in the game Davante Adams ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel), who just destroys no matter what coverage the defense throws out at him. Whether the Pats throw out Cover One, Two, Three, or Blitz, Adams will be a barn burner for GPPs.
As for the Pats, well not much going on here but the clam chowder up in Massachusetts. But hold the phone, we could extract some value with all the injuries at wideout (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas). Tight end Mike Gesicki ($2,600 DraftKings/$ 4,700 FanDuel) will tower over the Raiders’ linebackers when he lines up in the slot, use him in tournaments as a dart throw and save up on some salary this weekend.
Until the Pats’ offense as a whole can be figured out, they’ll be a turnover machine driven by Mac Jones, a start-up that Raiders DST ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel).
Eagles @ Jets (+7) (O/U 41)
Locks: Jalen Hurts
The Eagles remain undefeated and will ride up I-95 to look to stay that way this Sunday. Running behind the best offensive line in the league, D’Andre Swift ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) continues to benefit fantasy managers, ranking fourth in yardage (434) and catch percentage (88.3%). Safe for Cash and GPP formats, still can’t figure out why his price remains low moving into Week Six.
Well if Philly does their job and lights up the scoreboard, New York will be playing catch-up all afternoon. Second-year back Breece Hall blew the doors off of Denver, toting the pigskin 22 times for 194 yards and a score. Start’ him for tournaments, but overall this could be a gruesome game with both defenses and Zach Wison’s struggles at quarterback. Pay-up spot here for the Eagles DST ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) if you can afford them.
Lions @ Bucs (+3) (U/O 43.5)
Locks: David Montgomery
Jared Goff may be on the road, but he gets Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) back, who can eat off of a Bucs’ Cover Three scheme in Week Six. Jahmyr Gibbs again will not make it on the field, leaving David Montgomery the bulk load of carries for the second straight week. Remember Goff can turn into a pumpkin on the road, so an inexpensive Bucs DST ($2,300 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel) will be our paydown for defense this week.
On the Tampa side of things, it’s been the Mike Evans ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) show. He’s shaken off the hamstring off the Week Five bye and looking to add to his 30% target rate for the Bucs, with 337 yards and three touchdowns in four games.
Cardinals @ Rams (-7) (O/U 48.5)
Locks: Cooper Kupp; Puca Nacua
To wrap up the slate, we’re serving up the GPP stack, on the menu are Matt Staford ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) and Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel). The passing volume is available for Kupp and Puka Nacua ($8000 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel), which caught me off-guard. Facing this horror show of an Arizona secondary, pick your poison of either or, along with Stafford in a Rams’ high volume-passing offense. Running back Ky Williams ($6,500 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) should begin to show low ownership, making him Milly-maker-worthy leading the league in snaps (86%), and ready for any goalline opportunity.
On the Cardinals’ side, the latest news is James Conner’s IR designation has left us in limbo of what will happen at running back moving forward. Whether it be Demercado or Ingram, stay away as it’s not worth the risk in this offense. Stick with Marquise Brown ($5,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) with his high floor of 16 fantasy points that will see one more time against LA when they run Cover One defense.
Cash Core
- Mostert
- Logan Thomas
- KJ Osborn
- Trevor Lawrence
GPP Core
- Ky Williams
- Davante Adams
- Drake London
- Mike Gesicki
- Matt Stafford
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for 50% off using promo code HALFOFF50 here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
